On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had one of its best days of the year and stormed higher. The benchmark index rose 1.2% to 7,831.8 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to edge lower

The Australian share market looks set to end the week on a subdued note despite a positive session in Europe. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 7 points or 0.1% lower this morning. Wall Street was closed for Independence Day, but the FTSE rose 0.85% and the DAX climbed 0.4%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) could have a good finish to the week after oil prices pushed higher again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.2% to US$84.06 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.25% to US$87.55 a barrel. Summer fuel demand optimism has boosted oil prices this week.

Buy Smartgroup shares

The Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX: SIQ) share price could be great value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating on the salary packaging and fleet management company’s shares with a trimmed price target of $10.95 (from $11.00). It said: “We have reviewed the June VFACTS data and updated our forecasts to reflect new vehicle sales and other industry developments. The YTD achievement marks a record and surpasses the previous best result in June 2018.”

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have an underwhelming finish to the week after the gold price softened overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 0.2% to US$2,365.3 an ounce. This may have been driven by profit taking after a strong gain on rate cut optimism.

New Hope to make acquisition?

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares will be on watch amid speculation the coal miner is planning a major acquisition following its $300 million convertible note issue. Bell Potter commented: “In our view, NHC are capitalising on a relatively cheap source of funding, and a recent uptick in share price to secure additional cash liquidity. We see inorganic growth as key to NHC’s long-term growth outlook. The company is open about pursuing M&A opportunities within the coal sector, of which there are currently some well publicised sale processes.” Bell Potter has a hold rating and $4.70 price target on its shares.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why is the New Hope share price plunging today?
• Why Dimerix, New Hope, Pro Medicus, and West African Resources shares are sinking today
• 2 ASX gold shares going gangbusters (and one crashing 11%!)
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Smartgroup. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have soared in 2024, clipping a 20% return since January. They have also rallied 31% over the past 12 months and now fetch $8.94 per share at the time of writing.

The recent surge in Whitehaven shares can likely be attributed to an increase in the price of coal. It bounced from lows of US$115 per tonne before peaking at US$147 per tonne in May. Whilst it has come down from that level, coal producers have held gains.

Whitehaven is a price taker on coal, meaning its share price is highly sensitive to fluctuations in coal’s market price.

With the black rock currently priced at US$135 per tonne, analysts are turning more bullish on Whitehaven, with consensus rating the ASX coal stock a buy, according to CommSec.

Morgan Stanley is bullish on Whitehaven shares

Morgan Stanley has joined the buy club on Whitehaven shares. It ranks them – along with fellow ASX coal share Yancoal Ltd (ASX: YAL) – as its top picks in the space.

Morgan Stanley identifies metallurgical coal as its top pick amongst all the commodity groups, according to The Australian. It sees both Whitehaven and Yancoal well positioned to benefit from potential tailwinds.

For one, the broker expects the price of metallurgical coal to rise by 15% to US$290 per tonne by the end of the year.

It says underground fires at two key coal mines, that make up 2.5% of coking coal supply, – the Grosvenor mine in Australia and the Longview mine in the US – may cause supply imbalances, and be a tailwind for prices.

Analyst Sara Chan said the firm sees “a near-term opportunity in coking coal, especially after the recent share price pullback”, per The Australian.

“Our recent China coal trip suggests the market is under-appreciating the supply constraints for met coal in the country”, Chen advised investors.

If coal prices head towards these levels, Whitehaven shares could be a beneficiary. But, we shall see.

Some analysts are split

There are other tailwinds to coal pricing as well. China plans to add 70 gigawatts of coal capacity this year, while India’s coal imports increased by 25% in 2023.

Meanwhile, Whitehaven has received mixed reviews from some analysts.

While Morgan Stanley has a bullish outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating on Whitehaven shares, citing potential challenges in achieving its medium-term guidance without requiring significant capital investment.

This could reduce its readily available cash flows for growth and to fund dividends.

In a July note, it said:

We continue to rate WHC Neutral based on: (1) Fully valued, (2) Thermal Coal market to soften further in 2024, (3) Negative FCF over FY25 & FY26 and low dividend yield while degearing, (4) But Met coal price well-supported at US$250/t near to medium term.

Time will tell what the impact of these market forces will have on Whitehaven shares.

Foolish takeaway

Whitehaven shares have experienced significant gains in 2024, driven by strong demand for coal and positive market sentiment.

Remember that analyst ratings are just opinions, and always conduct your own due diligence.

The post Broker sees Whitehaven shares and one other coal stock as top buys appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• A 10% dividend yield! Is this ASX All Ords stock a brilliant bargain?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 2 ASX coal shares smashing new 52-week highs on Wednesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Arafura Rare Earths, Ora Banda, Superloop, and Whitehaven Coal shares are rising today

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) has been a standout on the ASX in 2024, given its direct exposure to markets in the United States.

The exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracks the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index (NASDAQ: NDX), net of fees and costs.

The NASDAQ is a basket of the top 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the US exchanges. Since its formation in 1985, its composition has been heavily weighted toward technology.

The ASX NDQ ETF has rallied around 30% over the past year and closed trading on Thursday at $44.64 per share.

With this impressive run, many investors may be wondering if now is the right time to buy or if they should wait for a better opportunity.

Asset management giant Lazard released its half-yearly market commentary. Here’s a look at what the firm said and what it means for the ASX NDQ.

Why the ASX NDQ ETF is thriving

The ETF is heavily weighted in technology and innovation, which have been key drivers of its performance.

Specifically, it has benefitted from the robust performances of major tech giants in the US in 2024.

Dubbed the Magnificent 7 among market commentators, companies like Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) are a few of the tech darlings that have driven the fund’s growth – with Nvidia almost tripling in value over the year.

But Lazard sees potential risks in this trend continuing at the same rate of dominance.

According to Ronald Temple, Lazards’s chief market strategist, the ongoing technology and artificial intelligence (AI) boom has contributed significantly to the market’s recent gains.

That’s great, but it might not last forever, Temple warns. This could impact the ASX NDQ ETF.

If this overall market growth is to be sustainable, tech companies must demonstrate a return on investment from their tech and AI expenditures.

Other non-tech companies must start to pull their weight as well, Temple says:

From my perspective, the only way the mega-cap tech companies can continue to deliver market-beating earnings growth is if their customers realize a return on investment from buying their goods and services…

… Upside from current levels will need to be driven by earnings growth and a broadening of the equity market rally beyond a small number of technology-related companies.

Despite these concerns, the long-term outlook for tech remains positive. Slowing US inflation, which Lazard expects “to decelerate” by the end of 2024, supports this outlook.

Is now the right time to buy?

With its FY24 performance, the question is whether investing in the NDQ ETF right now is a smart move.

Many are looking into the coming 12 months as well. Additionally, there are interest rate decisions. There is also inflation. Furthermore, unemployment rates are a factor. There are also trade deficits. You name it.

But all of this is just noise for the patient, long-term investor.

Attempting to time the market is a fool’s game (and not our kind of Fool!). Lazard’s Temple agrees. He says that owning stocks over the long term is “among the best” investment strategies.

“[B]ut”, he adds, ” it is important to be fully invested through the cycle and to not try to time the markets.”

In fact, one recent analysis indicated that over the 20 years from 2003 to 2022, investors who missed the 10 strongest up-days in the US equity market forfeited over half of the total return from the entire investment period.

While no one likes to buy at the peak, it’s also important to recognise that five years from now, such a purchase, if targeted based on the quality of the investment and the valuation thereof, will often be seen as a wise decision.

Foolish takeaway

The ASX NDQ ETF has shown remarkable growth. If you’re looking to add a tech-heavy ETF to your portfolio, this might be a good option. It depends on your view of the sector.

However, keep an eye on market conditions and consider your personal financial circumstances, always seeking professional advice.

The post ASX NASDAQ (NDQ) ETF: Up 30% in a year, should you buy now or wait? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy these market-beating ASX ETFs in FY25
• Top ASX shares to buy in July 2024
• Could these be the best ASX tech ETFs to buy for FY25?
• Here’s how the ASX 200 market sectors stacked up last week
• How do you spot an innovation stock?

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price couldn’t quite match the gains posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in the financial year we just said goodbye to.

Shares in the ASX 200 biotech stock closed out FY 2023 trading for $277.38. On 28 June, the final trading day of FY 2024, shares closed at $295.21 apiece.

That put the CSL share price up 6.4% for the full financial year, trailing the 7.8% gains posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

Of course, that doesn’t include the record $3.81 in partly franked dividends that CSL paid out over the year. If we add those back in, the ASX 200 biotech stock gained 7.8% in FY 2024, right in line with the benchmark index.

Here’s what investors were considering over the past year.

Headwinds and tailwinds for the CSL share price

Among the headwinds impacting the CSL share price in FY 2024 were the unsatisfactory trial results for its CSL112 product.

CSL112 is intended to reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients following an acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

But the phase 3 AEGIS-II trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of CSL112 failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint of MACE reduction at 90 days. This saw the ASX 200 biotech stock shelve its plans for a near-term regulatory filing.

However, CSL’s head of R&D, Bill Mezzanotte, highlighted that the study had provided valuable insights and “enhanced capabilities”.

Mezzanotte said on the day:

AEGIS-II is the most ambitious study in our company’s history, and we are proud of the quality of the study we delivered and the enhanced capabilities we developed to do so.

We plan to apply these capabilities as well as our plasma protein platform to future unmet medical need in cardiovascular and metabolic conditions as well as those in our other strategic therapeutic areas.

The CSL share price closed down 4.8% on the day.

February also saw CSL report its half-year financial results. While investors had high expectations and didn’t immediately reward the stock, the results were solid.

Highlights included an 11% year on year increase in revenue in constant currency to US$8.05 billion. And net profit after tax in constant currency leapt 20% to US$1.94 billion.

This saw management up the unfranked interim dividend by 11% to $1.80 per share.

As for the nascent FY 2025, the CSL share price is up 0.78% so far in the new financial year.

The post What happened with the CSL share price in FY 2024? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• The best ASX 200 shares to buy when interest rates fall
• Broker upgrades CSL shares to ‘buy’ — could they hit $335?
• 3 top ASX retirement shares to buy for FY25
• Why the CSL share price could be ‘undervalued’ at $293
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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

While it is looking like there may yet be one more interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, it won’t be long until rates then start to ease.

For example, according to the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) economics team, it is forecasting the cash rate to fall from 4.35% today to 3.1% by the end of 2025.

In light of this, analysts at Bell Potter think investors should be preparing their portfolios for when interest rates start to fall. Particularly given that US interest rates may start falling earlier and could put a rocket under global share markets.

But which ASX 200 shares should investors buy? Three of the best to buy according to the broker are as listed below. But firstly, here’s what the broker is saying about which stocks to pick. It said:

The anticipated earlier rate cuts by the US Fed compared to the RBA will be more of an imminent catalyst for the Australian market. As a result, our stock ideas are focused on sectors within the Australian market that stand to gain the most from a US rate cut and that still look attractive from a valuation perspective.

Now, let’s move onto the shares it rates as buys. They are as follows:

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

Bell Potter is very positive on this leading biotherapeutics company and thinks now is the time to buy. Particularly after a few years of its shares going nowhere.

This is because it feels that CSL is going through a margin recovery phase which will underpin strong earnings growth. It said:

CSL presents an attractive buying opportunity. CSL has been in a holding pattern since 2020, and for good reason. COVID hit the business with higher collection costs for plasma, depressing margins. We anticipate the start of a margin recovery phase for CSL, driving above-market earnings growth. CSL trades at a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, representing a discount to its 10- year average of ~31x. With consensus expecting mid-teen earnings growth over the next few years, CSL trades on a PEG ratio of 1.7x, which looks attractive vs peers.

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX)

Another ASX 200 share that gets the thumbs up is building materials company James Hardie.

Bell Potter likes the company due to its strong market position, premium brand, and pricing power. It also sees rate cuts as an important catalyst. The broker explains:

James Hardie Industries (JHX), the leading global player in fibre cement, offers a compelling investment opportunity at current levels. 80% of JHX’s earnings are from North America, so US Fed cuts will be an important catalyst for the stock. With a strong market position, premium brand, and pricing power, JHX is poised to capitalise on structural growth in the fibre cement market and cyclical tailwinds from potential US rate cuts. Following a recent pullback, JHX is trading at an attractive 12-month forward PE of ~19x. Considering the company’s strong earnings growth prospects and robust fundamentals, this represents an appealing entry point.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Finally, Bell Potter thinks Transurban is an ASX 200 share to buy for when interest rates fall. It said:

Transurban (TCL) is a high-quality infrastructure stock poised to benefit from interest rate cuts. TCL can deliver consistent, low-risk cash flows over the long term, backed by its 30-year concession durations and proven ability to maintain earnings even during economic downturns. Strong population growth in key markets, margin expansion, and robust project pipeline should enable continued dividend growth over the medium to long term.

The post The best ASX 200 shares to buy when interest rates fall appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What happened with the CSL share price in FY 2024?
• Broker upgrades CSL shares to ‘buy’ — could they hit $335?
• 3 top ASX retirement shares to buy for FY25
• Why the CSL share price could be ‘undervalued’ at $293
• Buy these ASX income shares in July: Analysts

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL and Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The 2024 financial year has just come to a close, and what a year it was for ASX shares. Over the 12 months to 30 June 2024, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose by a healthy 7.8%. Including the returns from dividends, ASX 200 investors are looking at an FY24 return of around 12%. But some ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did even better than that.

A 12% return for a 12-month period is indeed a very pleasing return for the ASX 200, historically speaking. But wait until you see some of the returns that the ASX’s best ETFs managed last financial year.

Before we get to the list, it’s worth noting that we won’t be including leveraged or geared ETFs like the Global X Ultra Long Nasdaq 100 Hedge Fund (ASX: LNAS). Gearing arguably gives these funds a bit of an unfair advantage in these stakes, so we’ll be overlooking them for now.

The five best ASX ETFs of FY24

Global X Uranium ETF (ASX: ATOM)

The Global X Uranium ETF had a phenomenal FY24, thanks in large part to soaring demand (and prices) for the nuclear fuel uranium.

This commodity-based fund holds a portfolio of global companies that all operate within the uranium mining and atomic fuel space. Some of its top stocks include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and ASX’s Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE).

ATOM units enjoyed a stunning 38.45% return over the 2024 financial year, rising from $11 each to $15.23 at the end of last week.

Global X FANG+ ETF (ASX: FANG)

Next up, we have the FANG+ ETF. This ETF is a rather unique one on the ASX. It only holds 10 underlying stocks, which are made up of the ten most dominant tech shares on the US markets. Think the likes of Amazon, NVIDIA, Apple and Alphabet.

This ETF had a great FY24. FANG units began the year at $18.78 but finished up at $26.92, a gain of 43.3%. FANG investors will also enjoy an FY24 dividend distribution later this month, which will add another 5% or so to that total.

Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI)

Next up we have another Global X fund in the Semiconductor ETF. This thematic ETF does basically what it says on the tin – allow ASX investors exposure to a portfolio of global stocks that are all leaders in the semiconductor and internet of things space.

With NVIDIA as a top holding, this ETF was always going to have a successful FY24. But SEMI units went from being priced at $11.68 at the start of the year to $17.91 by the end. That’s a gain worth 53.3%. Investors also enjoyed some dividend distributions, but these didn’t move the needle too significantly.

BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (ASX: URNM)

Changing lanes again now, we are back to another commodity-based fund, this one from Betashares. The Global Uranium ETF had a fantastic year for the same fundamental reasons as the ATOM ETF. These funds are very similar in nature. URNM holds a similar portfolio to ATOM and many of the same stocks, which also include Cameco Corp and our own Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN).

URNM units went from being priced at $6.05 each at the end of FY23 to finishing up FY24 at $9.49. That’s a gain worth around 56.9%. Again, we had some small dividend contributions from this ETF as well, which pushed the fund’s total returns to just over 57%.

BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF (ASX: CRYP)

Our final ASX ETF for the day, and the best-performing fund on the market over FY24, is none other than this cryptocurrency-focused fund from Betashares. As its name implies, this ASX ETF invests in a portfolio of global companies that are all big players in the provisioning, mining, and trading of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

Some of the shares you’ll find within the Betasahres Crypto Innovators ETF include Marathon Digital Holdings, Cleanspark, and Coinbase.

CRYP units had a jaw-dropping FY24, no way around it. They started the financial year at $3.15 each but finished it up going for $5.30. That’s a whopping gain of 68.25%.

The post The 5 best ASX ETFs of FY24 revealed! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Top ASX shares to buy in July 2024
• 4 of the best ASX ETFs to buy in July
• Why this ASX ETF is one of the best ways to invest in artificial intelligence (AI)
• 1 top ASX ETF to buy now as the global uranium race heats up

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bitcoin, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Cameco. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Betashares Global Uranium Etf, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.