• One day, Nvidia stock will go down. Here’s how to keep it from hurting your portfolio

    A businesswoman gets angry, shaking her fist at her computer.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has delivered staggering, market-beating gains, but would you believe it hasn’t always been that way? You don’t have to go back far to see when it has struggled — Nvidia stock lost a full 50% of its value in 2022.

    Investors who didn’t buy Nvidia stock during that down period might be kicking themselves since those steep losses were immediately followed by the artificial intelligence (AI) craze that has been fueling the stock (and the broad market) for almost two years now. But if that’s you, don’t feel too bad. Very few people understood the changes generative AI would usher in for the world.

    If you do own Nvidia stock and have benefited from its incredible gains recently, you should keep in mind there’s real debate about how long its streak can go on. It’s up over 700% since the beginning of 2023, it trades at a high valuation, and the company is facing increasing competition. There’s likely to be significant pullback at some point — here’s how to keep it from upending your portfolio.

    Diversification, diversification, diversification

    The old adage about not putting all your eggs in one basket is well-known because it’s true. Even if you own shares in one of the best companies on the planet, which Nvidia undoubtedly is, there are no guarantees regarding its future performance. Holding just one stock, or letting it make up an outsized percentage of your portfolio, is a major risk. Even the best of companies can run into all sorts of unforeseen challenges.

    With that in mind, putting your investment eggs in different baskets, so to speak, can happen in a few ways. There are layers of diversification, and the more fully diversified your portfolio is across various types of categories, the more protection it will have.

     First, there are different kinds of investments. Beyond the stock market, which includes individual stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and options, there’s real estate, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and savings accounts, among others.

    Even within the stock market, there are different kinds of stocks: growth stocks, value stocks, dividend stocks, blue chips, and other classifications. You can also break stocks down by industry, geography, or market capitalization.

    Diversification across these categories can protect you from a downturn in any one asset class, industry, region, etc. A good rule of thumb is to have around 25 to 30 holdings in your stock portfolio, but if that sounds overly complicated, consider a few ETFs. The most popular ones track major indexes like the S&P 500, giving you instant exposure to the hundreds of stocks within the index.

    Does it make sense to sell Nvidia stock?

    Some long-term investors prefer a “set it and forget it” approach to their holdings. If you buy great stocks and hold through thick and thin, you should be able to generate strong long-term gains. But even these investors need to occasionally review their portfolios to see if any adjustments are necessary to support their investing goals.

    And this brings us to the dilemma for Nvidia shareholders. What happens when a stock appreciates in value and accounts for too large a portion of your overall portfolio?

    Let’s say you originally allocated 5% of your portfolio to Nvidia, but because the stock has climbed so quickly, it now makes up over 25% of your holdings. This is a case where you might want to sell some Nvidia stock and redistribute those funds to bring your portfolio back into a more risk-ready allocation. It may seem counterintuitive to reduce your exposure to a great company, but such a move can be necessary to bring your portfolio in line with your investing goals.

    I’ll give you two recent examples of billionaire investors making high-profile sales of excellent stocks. First, Warren Buffett recently trimmed his stake in Apple by selling an estimated $20 billion of shares in the first quarter. But investors shouldn’t mistake that for any loss of confidence in the company — it still accounts for nearly 43% of Berkshire Hathaway‘s entire portfolio. Meanwhile, Bill Ackman recently sold 10% of his position in Chipotle Mexican Grill. Even with that sale, it remains the largest position in the Pershing Square Capital portfolio at 20%.

    Finally, several billionaire investors have recently sold part of their stake in Nvidia, including Citadel Advisors’ Ken Griffin, Millennium Management’s Israel Englander, and Two Sigma’s John Overdeck and David Siegel.

    Nvidia’s current momentum won’t last forever. When the pullback eventually comes, it doesn’t have to roil your entire portfolio if you take the steps to diversify your holdings based on your risk tolerance and investing goals.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    The post One day, Nvidia stock will go down. Here’s how to keep it from hurting your portfolio appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?

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    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Nvidia. Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Boeing says its space mission is ‘going well’ despite its Starliner leaving 2 astronauts stuck on the ISS

    NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams
    NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are stuck on Boeing's Starliner.

    • Boeing has again delayed Starliner's return from the International Space Station.
    • The spacecraft has faced multiple delays and technical issues since its launch on June 5.
    • The company appeared to downplay the issues, telling the FT the mission is "going well."

    Boeing is doing damage control as its first crewed commercial spacecraft remains on the International Space Station (ISS) with no confirmed return date.

    NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams traveled in Boeing's Starliner spacecraft on June 5 after a series of technical delays and were scheduled to stay docked in space for between eight and 10 days.

    However, 12 days after the crew's arrival, Boeing delayed the spacecraft's return until June 26.

    Another delay was announced on Friday. The aviation company said it needed time to schedule two spacewalks and to assess issues on board following five helium leaks.

    As Business Insider previously reported, helium supports Starlink's reaction control system thrusters, which allows them to fire.

    In a statement to the Financial Times, Boeing said the delays were not considered a failure.

    "It is a test flight," the statement said. "The mission is still going and it is going well."

    A spokesperson for the company told BI that it had "extended the mission in order to collect more data" on the helium leaks.

    They said the helium systems and thrusters are located in the spacecraft's service module, which is "discarded and burns up in the atmosphere on reentry," preventing a failure analysis from taking place on Earth.

    The spokesperson added that the helium leaks had been fixed and were "not a concern for the return mission," while four of the five thrusters were operating normally.

    "Starliner is performing well in orbit while docked to the space station," the spokesperson said, though they added that no return date has been confirmed.

    They said a new return date will be evaluated following the second spacewalk on July 2.

    "The crew is not pressed for time to leave the station since there are plenty of supplies in orbit, and the station's schedule is relatively open through mid-August," they added.

    As BI reported on Thursday, Starliner's delay is the latest in a string of controversies surrounding the company.

    Boeing has faced criticism from lawmakers, airlines, and whistleblowers, many of whom alleged that its approach to aviation safety wasn't sufficient.

    The company previously told BI that those allegations were not representative of the work it has done to "ensure the quality and long-term safety of the aircraft."

    NASA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • A pharmacy in Denver hired staff with hemophilia then fired them if they refused to pay for its pricey medications to treat it, a federal agency lawsuit says

    Male pharmacist choosing a medicine from the drawer, side view.
    A pharmacy in Denver deliberately hired workers with hemophilia and pushed them to buy its expensive medications, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

    • A pharmacy in Denver discriminated against workers who didn't buy its expensive medication, the EEOC said.
    • The pharmacy deliberately hired workers with hemophilia and "pressured" them to get their medication from it, the EEOC claimed.
    • The EEOC accused Factor One Source Pharmacy of violating the Americans with Disabilities Act in a lawsuit.

    A pharmacy in Denver deliberately hired workers with hemophilia and pushed them to buy its expensive medications — or it fired them, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said in a lawsuit.

    Factor One Source Pharmacy "unlawfully" asked job applicants about their hemophilia, their children's hemophilia, and the medications they took "so it could recruit individuals who had hemophilia or had family members with hemophilia," the EEOC said in a press release.

    The pharmacy then "pressured" employees to use its services to get expensive hemophilia medication, the EEOC said in the lawsuit. They were also asked to change their medications to ones that were more profitable for the pharmacy, the EEOC's suit added.

    Their employment was "contingent upon them filling their costly hemophilia medications through Factor One," the EEOC said in the lawsuit.

    "Employees who refused were fired or laid off, while employees who used Factor One's pharmacy for hemophilia medications kept their jobs, even if they had worse performance reviews than employees who were let go," the EEOC said in the press release.

    In some cases, employees felt forced to resign because of how they were treated after they refused to change their hemophilia medication, the EEOC said in the lawsuit.

    The pharmacy also shared information about which workers had hemophilia and which medications they were taking with their coworkers, the EEOC said in the lawsuit.

    Hemophilia is a bleeding disorder which stops blood from clotting properly.

    The pharmacy's actions violated both the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, the EEOC said in the press release. The violations occurred under previous ownership, the EEOC said.

    Under a settlement signed in early June, the pharmacy will pay $515,000 to affected workers in back pay and compensatory damages and its new owners have agreed to not employ or contract with the company's prior CEO and owner.

    Factor One did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Monaco is the world’s most expensive place to rent. A monthly budget of $30K will get you a 1,200-square-foot apartment.

    A view of tall buildings in Monaco
    Monaco offers tax benefits, low crime rates, and good weather.

    • Monaco is the world's most expensive residential rental market, according to Knight Frank.
    • Renting a 1,100-square-foot property in Monaco starts at about $19,350 a month.
    • While a $30,000 budget would only get you a modest two-bed apartment, per The Wall Street Journal.

    Monaco is the world's most expensive luxury rental market, according to analysis provided to The Wall Street Journal by global real estate agency Knight Frank.

    The May analysis looked at the top 1% of residential properties measuring about 1,100 square feet across different cities, and found that those in Monaco start at about $19,350 a month.

    According to the analysis, the starting price in Monaco to rent a 1,100-square-foot apartment is 36% higher than in Hong Kong, the second most expensive city, followed by Singapore and London.

    Per Forbes, the average national rent price in the US is about $1,400 a month.

    The Journal noted that larger luxury rentals in Monaco can easily surpass $100,000 a month, and reach as high as $280,000.

    These often come with hotel-style amenities, including concierge services, and even a landscaping team.

    According to The Journal, with a budget of about $30,000, you could only expect to rent a modest two-bedroom apartment in central Monaco, with a small kitchen and windowless bathroom.

    In contrast, for the same budget, the outlet said New Yorkers could get a property more than twice the size — about 3,100 square feet — overlooking Central Park.

    Even so, there's demand for such expensive properties.

    One major draw may be the opportunity to acquire residency and benefit from Monaco's rich-friendly tax policies, including a lack of personal income tax (unless you are French) and no capital gains taxes.

    Monaco also has no wealth or property tax.

    Perhaps as a result, it has the highest GDP per capita in the world, per the World Bank.

    Beyond financial advantages, Monaco also offers other advantages — pleasant weather, beautiful landscapes, low crime, and opportunities for luxury shopping and dining.

    These come at a steep price, however.

    The Journal noted that tenants in Monaco are usually expected to pay quarterly — with a quarter in advance and a three-month security deposit, along with tens of thousands of dollars in service charges.

    That could easily cost you $100,000 before you've even moved in.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • These tiny EVs are hoping to make a big impact

    Microlino Lite
    The Microlino Lite.

    • Tiny EVs like the Nissan Sakura and BYD's Seagull are challenging Tesla in Japan and China. 
    • But these minuscule motors are unlikely to come to the US anytime soon.
    • That's a shame, as data suggests drivers would quite like their EVs to be smaller and cheaper.

    Tiny EVs are having a moment.

    In markets like China, Japan, and Europe, ridiculously small EVs are selling in large numbers, with vehicles like BYD's Seagull and the Nissan Sakura challenging the likes of Tesla.

    That's in contrast to the US EV market, where SUVs like the Tesla Model Y and pickups like the Ford F150 Lightning rule the roads.

    This may be changing, with consumer data showing that US drivers are increasingly asking for smaller vehicles and automakers like Ford and Tesla vowing to build cheaper models.

    Tens of thousands of cars manufactured in China are sold in the US every year, but it's unlikely anyone in the US will be able to get behind the wheel of a Seagull or Sakura anytime soon.

    The government's tariff hikes on Chinese EVs and regulations restricting the ability to import smaller vehicles make it harder still.

    Here are some of the tiny EVs making a splash in Asia and Europe.

    BYD Seagull

    The yellow BYD Seagull electric hatchback.
    The BYD Seagull.

    BYD has rapidly eclipsed its rivals in China — and become Elon Musk's primary challenger in the country — thanks to its massive range of EVs, including several smaller, cheaper options.

    Chief among those is the Seagull, a tiny EV that can go 305 km on a single charge and costs $11,000.

    The Seagull, which launched last year, has proven predictably popular in BYD's home country — but it's unlikely to come to the US anytime soon after the US government hiked tariffs on Chinese EVs.

    Hongguang Mini

    Wuling Hong Guang Mini
    The Wuling Hong Guang Mini at the Shanghai auto show in 2021.

    The Hongguang Mini EV, which was developed by Chinese automakers SAIC Motor and Wuling Motor in partnership with General Motors, caused a sensation when it launched in 2020.

    The diminutive people carrier was the bestselling EV in China in 2022, and continues to outsell the Tesla Model 3 more than four years after being unveiled.

    It's not hard to see why. The Hongguang Mini has a range of around 170 km on a single charge and reportedly costs between 28,800-38,800 yuan, or $3,955- $5,375. Plus it's adorable.

    Nissan Sakuru

    Nissan Sakura
    "Sakura" means "cherry blossoms" in Japanese.

    Japan has long had a soft spot for tiny EVs, known as Kei cars — and the Nissan Sakura is one of the most popular.

    The 11-foot-long electric car, which costs around $13,000, was Japan's best-selling EV in 2023.

    Drivers previously told Business Insider the Sakura, which is only available in Japan, is perfect for navigating Tokyo's narrow streets and taking day trips to the countryside.

    "It takes off like a rocket from a standing start and can climb hill and mountain roads like a full-sized car with all that torque," said one.

    Citroen Ami

    Citroen Ami
    The Citroen Ami is technically an "electric quadricycle."

    Technically speaking, the Citroen Ami isn't an electric car at all, but an "electric quadricycle."

    The cute four-wheeler, which costs $12,285 in the UK, was first launched in France in 2020 and is widely available in Europe.

    With a top speed of 28 miles per hour and a range of just 46 miles, the Ami (which means "friend" in French) is very much an urban vehicle — but it certainly turned heads when BI gave it a test drive in London.

    Microlino

    The Microlino
    The Microlino "bubble car."

    The best thing about this "bubble car" is how you get into it — the Microlino has a fridge-style door that allows you to enter and exit from the front.

    The Microlino is designed by Swiss scooter company Micro. It offers a maximum range of 228 km and starts at $19,900.

    The tiny microcar has been on sale in Europe since 2021, with a UK launch mooted for later this year.

    You can't buy one in the US, but Micro has just unveiled a more stripped-back version dubbed the Microlino Lite, which CMO Merlin Ouboter told The Verge the company hopes to have on sale in the US by the end of 2024.

    Vinfast VF3

    Vinfast VF3
    The VinFast VF3 mini-SUV.

    Vietnamese EV firm VinFast is one of the more unusual companies battling for global electric vehicle dominance.

    The automaker, which briefly became the world's third-most valuable car company last year, was founded by Vietnamese billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong, who made his fortune selling instant noodles in Ukraine.

    VinFast is now challenging the likes of BYD and Wuling with its own tiny EV, the 10-foot-long VF3.

    The VF3 costs less than $10,000 and has a range of over 125 miles. The mini-SUV will be sold in Vietnam and the Philippines this year and available in the US and Europe by 2025.

    Honda N-VAN e

    Honda N-VAN e
    The Honda N-VAN e can seat between one and four people.

    The success of the Sakura has seen other Japanese automakers try their hand at making electric kei cars.

    Honda became the latest to get into the tiny EV game when it unveiled the N-VAN e, a miniature electric truck that starts at 2.44 million yen, or $15,500.

    The diminutive truck will launch in Japan in October. It is primarily targeted at delivery and construction companies rather than ordinary consumers.

    It's packed full of high-tech features, including a cooling and heating system that ensures the battery doesn't get too hot or cold (a notorious issue for EVs).

    Honda says the N-VAN e will even function as a mobile power storage device, with drivers able to use the truck's external power outlet to charge household appliances such as hot plates and electric kettles.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • US stockpiles of the rare earth minerals it would need to fight a war against an adversary like China are a mystery, and experts warn it’s a problem

    A USN F-35 C appears in the Pacific Air Show on September 29, 2023 in HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA.
    A US Navy F-35C at the 2023 Pacific Air Show on September 29, 2023 in HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA.

    • Rare earth minerals are critical for national defense and industry.
    • National stockpile levels are a mystery, though.
    • And there are indications that the stockpile is insufficient, worrying experts.

    Rare earth minerals are needed to make all sorts of things, from F-35 stealth fighters and night-vision goggles to internet fiber-optic cables and MRI machines.

    They are a subset of the critical minerals deemed essential for national security. If the supply chain for these minerals is disrupted, the negative impact on the US could be considerable. Stockpile sizes are unclear, yet there are indications that levels aren't where they need to be.

    Part of the military's mission at home is to keep stockpiles of goods like critical minerals on hand for emergency wartime use. Recent government research suggests that Congress knows that the stockpile levels are insufficient, but the numbers aren't made available to the public. That opacity is troubling to some experts.

    In the dark on the stockpile

    Although the name suggests otherwise, rare earth minerals are not exactly rare — in fact, they're relatively plentiful. But finding them in large enough deposits to mine is difficult, and the refining process, separating the minerals while they're bound up in chunks of ore, is expensive.

    China dominates global markets for mining critical earth minerals and the labor-intensive refining process, a challenge for the US given its rivalry with China and dependence on the minerals.

    The Biden administration began cutting American imports of Chinese rare earth minerals a few years ago in an effort to decrease US reliance on China for critical minerals. More recently, the White House initiated a push to forge new partnerships with allies for mining and to boost mining investments within the US.

    Some experts say the lack of transparency on mineral stockpile levels within the US leaves the public in the dark about what's actually being done to curb American dependence on what the Pentagon calls its "pacing challenge" for the critical minerals it would need in a great-power conflict.

    A new Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning ll multirole fighter jet parked in a hangar as it is presented to media at the Lockheed Martin factory in Fort Worth.
    A new Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning ll multirole fighter jet parked in a hangar as it is presented to media at the Lockheed Martin factory in Fort Worth.

    Gregory Wischer, who serves as a mineral consultant for Dei Gratia Minerals and has written extensively about critical minerals, suspects national stockpile levels are well below where they should be given the available information.

    "Congress has broad authority to dictate to the Defense Logistics Agency how much minerals they should stockpile and which minerals they should be stockpiling," he said.

    But the Department of Defense's consumption rates of critical minerals aren't publicly available either, Wischer added, explaining that it's hard to ensure critical mineral stockpiling is happening correctly if people do not know exactly how many minerals are used in an average year.

    Releasing that kind of data, he said, would increase public reassurance concerning wartime preparation. "You need to have ten-times that stockpile amount for a potential conflict because we would be going through munitions so quickly," he said.

    Why the stockpile matters

    The Department of Defense released its first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy in January to improve the resilience of the American military supply chain, in part by increasing stockpiles of critical minerals. Submarines, fighter aircraft, magnets used in missiles, radar systems, and drones all require critical earth minerals for manufacturing.

    A past report for Congress on rare earth minerals for national defense, for instance, noted that a single Virginia-class submarine requires 9,200 pounds of REM, while an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer requires 5,200 pounds.

    Arleigh Burke class destroyer
    Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Preble (DDG 88), USS Halsey (DDG 97) and USS Sampson (DDG 102) underway in the Arabian Gulf.

    US partnerships with Pacific allies for mineral mining and processing are options for decreasing US reliance on China during peacetime, but Wischer argued that relying on safe ocean supply lines to move processed or raw minerals might not make a lot of sense when preparing for and waging a war in the Pacific.

    "We're relying heavily on Japan and South Korea for these refined elements," Wischer said. "And if we get into a potential conflict [in the Pacific], those supply chains are in no way guaranteed to have safe transport to the United States." That makes the stockpile even more important.

    A congressional report released late last year noted the 2023 stockpile report to Congress, which is not public, "discovered net shortfalls in 88 materials, valued at $14.83 billion."

    Necessary for more than just defense

    The US military has said that it aims to have "a sustainable, mine-to-magnet supply chain capable of supporting all US defense requirements by 2027."

    As part of the "mine-to-magnet" effort — the naming for which is based on the military logistics phrase from "factory to foxhole" — the DoD awarded $20 million to a company called MP Materials to start processing and refining REM at the company's mine in California, the largest REM operation in the US, and the Australian-based mining company Lynas USA has been awarded nearly $260 million from the DoD to build a rare earth processing facility in Texas.

    It's unknown when US-based mining operations might be able to operate at a high enough capacity to offset Chinese imports. For now, US-based mining operations can't produce enough minerals to replace Chinese imports.

    The Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Vermont (SSN 792) arrives at its new homeport of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, July 27, 2023.
    The Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Vermont (SSN 792) at its new homeport of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam.

    Fabian Villalobos, an engineer and defense supply chain expert with the RAND Corporation, said that compared to some other industries, the US military is a relatively minor consumer of critical minerals. Industries such as healthcare, petroleum, transportation, and consumer electronics, as well as the Biden administration's push toward green energy, all depend heavily on these minerals.

    "The National Defense Stockpile, or the NDS, is the Nation's stockpile for strategic and critical materials," said DoD's Deputy Assistant Secretary for Industrial Base Resilience Halimah Najieb-Locke in a congressional hearing last year. The stockpiles serve "as an important buffer during emergencies. Stockpile reserves allow us to release materials to keep key production lines operating until long-term supply chains are restored."

    But in the same testimony, Najieb-Locke also argued that research has indicated that there are shortfalls within defense stockpiles of critical minerals.

    "Recent disruptions and adversarial actions have underscored what we have long recognized," she said. "It is more urgent now than ever to build our capability, resilience, and environmentally friendly supply chains for critical minerals."

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • The first US presidential debate will have some noticeable differences

    A graphic of Joe Biden in blue and Donald Trump in red.

    Almost Friday! Robots with skin!? There's a valid reason researchers are doing it — helping plastic surgeons train — but it doesn't make it any less creepy.

    In today's big story, we're looking at the first — and somewhat unconventional — US presidential debate happening tonight.

    What's on deck:

    But first, your time starts now.


    If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.


    The big story

    New debate, who dis?

    Joe Biden and Donald Trump

    It didn't come easy, and it won't feel quite the same, but we're getting our first US presidential debate tonight.

    President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will square off at 9 p.m. ET for a 90-minute debate.

    But don't be surprised by some noticeable differences from what you've come to expect when two presidential candidates face off.

    There will be no audience, and the candidate who isn't speaking will have his mic muted. The bipartisan group that typically holds the debates isn't running it. And it's also the earliest major debate on record.

    Business Insider's Brent D. Griffiths has the full rundown on what to expect tonight.

    The impact debates have on an election is… up for debate. Candidates who aren't well known, not a problem for Trump or Biden, see the biggest impact.

    But that doesn't mean the debate isn't important. It's one of the few live events that isn't football which is guaranteed to draw millions of Americans' attention.

    It also represents a big gamble for Biden, Brent writes, as the president tries to silence critics on everything from his age to his handling of the economy, which is a key issue for voters.

    Donald Trump and Joe Biden collage

    Meanwhile, the debate itself has some interesting subplots.

    For one, it will feature commercials for the first time. CNN, which is hosting, is selling two tiers of advertising, with the more premium version reportedly costing at least $1.5 million.

    But in a unique twist, CNN might not come away making the most from the debate. Rival networks can air the broadcast and sell commercials. And with Fox News and MSNBC often outpacing CNN in viewership, they might be able to sell ads for more money, writes BI's Alice Tecotzky.

    Debates are also typically easy fodder for social media, specifically X, as viral moments are bound to occur. And this marks the first presidential debate the platform navigates under the Elon Musk regime.

    Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see how things go on Instagram's Threads, which has largely avoided political discourse.

    However, one group won't be able to benefit from the debate despite being perfectly positioned for the action: US sportsbooks. So-called prediction markets do exist for political betting, but regulators want to ban them.

    US sportsbooks have avoided the entire political sphere — sorry, no same-debate parlays — despite it being big business for UK bookmakers.


    3 things in markets

    Image of tractor rolling across wheat field to sow crops
    1. A commodity trader is warning about a potential "food war." A combination of trade barriers and climate risk is threatening to exaggerate the demand-supply imbalance in food, according to commodity executive Sunny Verghese. "We have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars over food and water," he said at a recent conference.
    2. Goldman Sachs' bankers are going to get a big boost from AI next year. Top bank executives told BI the plan is to roll out a series of generative AI tools starting in 2025. The tech will "influence our workflows [and] begin to help us create new competitive advantages," one Goldman partner said.
    3. Trump's mass deportation plan could trigger a recession, leading economist says. Adam Posen, president of the nonpartisan Peterson Institute, warned that Trump's pledge to deport the most workers in US history is a massive stagflationary hazard. Those effects would be exacerbated by Trump's high-tariffs proposal, Posen said.

    3 things in tech

    Photo illustration of Elon Musk.
    1. "Terroristic" threats at Tesla. Texas law enforcement records show Elon Musk's company was the target of multiple "terroristic" threats over the past two years. These include a clumsy extortion scheme by a fake hitman and a hoax active-shooter threat at its HQ. There's little real danger to Tesla's employees, though, thanks to the site's tight security.
    2. Should AI help you ace a coding test? Silicon Valley is split over whether job candidates should be allowed to use AI chatbots in technical interviews, which test engineers' grasp of coding basics. Though stances vary across companies, there's a noticeable divide between smaller startups and tech giants.
    3. To do: Improve Microsoft's reputation. Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft's new AI chief, said bringing the company out from under Google's shadow was on his to-do list. He also said one of his main goals is to "uplevel the quality of Copilot."

    3 things in business

    A computer screen displaying analytics of a football player and a business man
    1. Inside the new CEO stress test. An intelligence exam originally designed to identify the best NFL quarterbacks is making waves in corporate hiring. The test measures fluid intelligence and decision-making under pressure, skills that can make potential CEOs. But it isn't foolproof.
    2. Maybe you don't need work friends after all. Work friendships are great for employers: They can help workers get more done and make them more reluctant to leave their friends for a new gig. But they're also disappearing — and that may not be a bad thing.
    3. "Silent layoffs" could backfire. The tactic, where companies give staff severance but ask them to keep details of their departure quiet, is on the rise. Experts said while the goal is to maintain trust across the business, it can actually do the exact opposite.

    In other news


    What's happening today

    • RFK Jr., who did not qualify for the CNN presidential debate, will answer debate questions via livestream during his campaign's counter-programming.
    • Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes final GDP data for Q1 2024.

    The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Being nice may be the reason you’re not getting promoted at work

    A man on an escalator looking upwards with a yellow wall background
    Nice guys finish last might be more than just a saying in the corporate world, according to leadership experts (stock image)

    • A TikToker claimed hardworking, nice employees rarely get promoted.
    • Experts say high performers often face "performance punishment" and are seen as less assertive.
    • Toxic cultures and outdated leadership still exist, but many companies also now favor soft skills.

    If you're good at your job and have a nice personality, you'll never get promoted.

    At least, that's the theory put forward by lifestyle content creator Jacqueline Morris, who posted a TikTok about the issue a couple of months ago.

    "You will never be promoted out of a hardworking, more junior position where a lot of the hard work exists," she said in the post, which gained 8.2 million views.

    "Let me explain. If you are in an executive suite, you do not have to be a pleasure to work with or good at your job. You don't have to be either of those. If you are at a VP or director level, you can either be really good at your job or a pleasure to work with. You don't have to be both, and sometimes people are still neither."

    The people at the bottom, where the "actual work is being done," Morris said, don't tend to move up the ladder if they keep doing it well.

    "I don't know how to get out of that cycle, but I believe in it," she said. "It's a curse."

    @jacquelameo

    but if I take a week off everything falls apart? it ain’t adding up

    ♬ original sound – jacqueline

    https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js

    A glass ceiling for the agreeable

    It sounds cynical, but Morris might be onto something.

    Paul Bramson, who offers leadership training programs as CEO of The Paul Bramson Companies, told Business Insider that competent, likable employees "often face a glass ceiling when it comes to promotions."

    Bramson said that when people have an underlying need to be liked, executive leaders can see it as a "weakness" or an inability to make tough decisions or have difficult conversations.

    "A lack of firmness or assertiveness can be problematic, as it might seem like the individual isn't taking people and decisions in hand effectively," he said.

    This is, of course, a generalisation. A company's corporate culture and leadership style will impact which personality traits are considered during promotions. A person's specific role and skill set also affect how much their personality changes their career trajectory.

    The research on what traits workplaces favor is mixed.

    A 2018 study from the Universities of Bristol, Minnesota, and Heidelberg found that being nice and conscientious had a "transitory and small" impact on someone's success.

    According to data from Truity Psychometrics, a company that designs personality and career tests, logical, analytical people tend to manage larger teams than those who are considered agreeable.

    Disagreeable men in the workplace also have an edge and are paid more, according to 2011 research conducted by the University of Notre Dame, Cornell University, and the University of Western Ontario.

    However, a 2020 study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that selfish, combative, and manipulative people are no more likely to get ahead at work than their good-hearted counterparts.

    According to Cameron Anderson, a professor of organizational behavior at the University of California at Berkeley who conducted the study, dominance and kindness are both associated with rising up the ranks.

    As BI previously reported, the assertiveness of being a jerk can help, but Anderson's study suggests their lack of generosity holds them back.

    Performance punishment

    Experts say that in some organizations, high performers get overloaded with more work but aren't necessarily rewarded or promoted, which is known as "performance punishment."

    Mary McConner, the founder and CEO of Inclusive Excellence Consulting, told BI this is when high performers get overloaded with work because they are reliable. People with an agreeable nature can find themselves in the same boat.

    "Unfortunately, performance punishment often leads to burnout and resentment because their good work isn't rewarded with advancement, but with more work," McConner said.

    While cooperative and reliable employees are strong contenders for promotions, they may be overlooked if they are perceived as less assertive or they are taken for granted, she

    Mary Barnes, the CEO of the business consultancy Evolve Your Performance, told BI that in organizations with toxic cultures, "skewed values and misaligned metrics prevail."

    In certain environments, overconfident people with dark triad traits can easily climb the ranks and perpetuate a destructive cycle.

    "In such environments, pleasant and competent employees often get sidelined," Barnes said.

    Even in healthier companies with better cultures, leaders can prioritize people who are emotionless and rational, Barnes added. But it's soft skills that are actually vital.

    "Managing down requires empathy and empowerment, treating people like whole humans instead of cogs in a corporate wheel," Barnes said.

    Some viewers of Morris' video likened her observation to "The Peter Principle," which is a management concept by the Canadian educationist Lawrence J. Peter.

    It explains how people can be promoted based on their previous success rather than their suitability for a new role, finding themselves in positions they don't yet have the skills for, and thus reach "a level of respective incompetence."

    Barnes said that people promoted to leadership positions may stop being so kind and competent if they struggle with this conundrum and start overcompensating for their imposter syndrome and micromanaging without empathy.

    "Few master this balance, and those who don't are destined to become mediocre leaders at best," she said.

    Being nice but ballsy can pay off

    Luke Blaney, the managing director of the recruitment agency ARx, told BI there is "a lot of truth in the whole 'nice guys finish last' saying."

    "Especially if people aren't prepared to even ask for what they want," he added.

    Blaney said it's all in the delivery when asking for a raise or a promotion.

    "I don't think being ballsy enough to ask is the same as not being pleasant," he said.

    Carolina Caro, a leadership coach and CEO and founder of Conscious Leadership Partners, thinks times are changing, however. She told BI that she thinks the notion of being a tough leader is "completely outdated."

    Rather, businesses are now interested in people who can handle tough situations "tactfully and with compassion," she said.

    "Organizations are recognizing the need to invest in the development of their leaders so that they can be the type of leader that people want to work for and foster engagement," Caro said. "That's the goal — but it doesn't mean all the organizations are there yet."

    Some companies have "remnants of archaic leadership models where the more aggressive you are as a leader, the better," Caro said.

    "But this type of leadership is generally seen as ineffective," she added. "Particularly in today's landscape with a multigenerational workforce that expects something completely different, or they simply leave."

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Indianapolis is the US city with the highest birth rate, study finds, which could have an impact on its future

    Skyline of Indianapolis
    According to a new study, Indianapolis has the highest birth rate out of 37 of the US's largest cities.

    • Indianapolis has the highest birth rate among major US cities, per SmartAsset analysis.
    • It used US Census data from 2021-2022 to compare birth rates in 37 large cities.
    • Immigration and a population's age composition could play a role, a demography expert told BI.

    Indianapolis is the US city with the highest birth rate, according to a new analysis by the financial technology company SmartAsset.

    SmartAsset analyzed the most recently available US Census data for 37 of the largest US cities to determine where birth rates and family sizes are the highest and lowest.

    It looked at the number of women aged 15 to 50 who had a baby in the 12 months between 2021 and 2022, comparing this with the total number of women in that age bracket.

    Indianapolis topped the list, with Seattle ranked lowest.

    The data suggested that 6.5% of Indianapolis women aged 15 to 50 had a child in 2022, leading to 14,482 births. In Seattle, it was just 2.6%.

    The study also found that birth rates in major cities were lower than the national average.

    Birth rates are a crucial indicator of population growth.

    "What's happening in the US is we have more people dying than birth in some of these metropolitan areas," Emilio A. Parrado, the director of the University of Pennsylvania's Population Studies Center, told BI.

    Parrado emphasized that high birth rates in Indianapolis could have significant policy and urban planning implications.

    These include preventing school closures, increasing demand for childcare, and "producing children that are going to maintain Indianapolis if they don't leave," he said.

    Parrado said there was insufficient data in the analysis to directly attribute the higher birth rates to a particular cause, but factors such as domestic and international migration, as well as a high proportion of women of prime childbearing age, likely contribute.

    Parrado also told BI that the study's limitation in not controlling for age makes it challenging to distinguish between the fertility rate and the population's age composition, and that a more precise measure would be the total fertility rate, which estimates the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime.

    According to the most recent Indiana natality report, from 2017, Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, had a total fertility rate of 1.933, higher than the overall US rate of 1.62.

    Many demographers and governments are concerned about declining fertility rates in the US and elsewhere.

    Dudley L. Poston Jr., an emeritus professor of sociology at Texas A&M University, told BI that various factors influence fertility levels, including ethnicity, education, poverty status, employment outside the home, and whether women live in urban or rural areas.

    Various countries around the world are experimenting with solutions to try to address low birth rates, including everything from unusual economic incentives to changing immigration policies.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Testing brands, counting railcars, and watching ‘Mary Poppins’: how a young Warren Buffett found winning stocks

    warren buffett
    Warren Buffett points to a framed copy of The New York Times from the 1929 stock market crash, hung on a wall in the Berkshire Hathaway offices.

    • Warren Buffett didn't just rely on financials and listings to pick winning stocks in the early days.
    • He spent weeks counting railcars, went to see "Mary Poppins," and tested the American Express brand.
    • "Buffett's Early Investments" outlines how the investor vetted bosses and hunted down shares to buy.

    There's a common perception that Warren Buffett struck gold as a young investor by poring over long lists of stocks and scooping up the cheapest ones. But he went to far greater lengths to understand what he was buying before he pounced, a recent book points out.

    Author Brett Gardner details several examples of the Oracle of Omaha's dogged pursuit of information in "Buffett's Early Investments: A new investigation into the decades when Warren Buffett earned his best returns."

    The future billionaire and Berkshire Hathaway CEO skipped class to attend annual meetings or paid others to go and ask questions for him. He flew around the US to meet company executives and looked into their personal finances, habits, and motivations.

    During a 2010 interview, Buffett's biographer Alice Schroeder also discussed Buffett's technique. "He behaves like an investigative journalist. "All this stuff about flipping through Moody's Manuals picking stocks … it was a screen for him, but he didn't stop there."

    Here are 6 of the most striking examples of Buffett's rigorous approach:

    1. Before investing in Disney in 1966, Buffett went to see Walt Disney, who gave him a tour of Disneyland and walked him through his plans for the company.

      Buffett also went to see Disney's latest blockbuster in a New York City theater to gauge its long-term value.

      "Here I am with a briefcase at 2:00 in the afternoon, heading in to see 'Mary Poppins,'" he once told a class of college students. "I almost felt like I had to rent a kid."

    2. Prior to piling into American Express in 1964, Buffett assessed whether the company's salad oil scandal had tarnished its brand.

      "Buffett started dropping in on Omaha restaurants and visiting places that took American Express cards and Travelers Cheques," Schroeder writes in "The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life."

      He also tasked a friendly stockbroker with digging into the business, which produced a foot-high pile of research on American Express bank tellers and officers, restaurants, hotels, and credit-card holders. The investigation satisfied Buffett that the business was going strong and customers still trusted its products.

    3. Buffett told Forbes that he "spent the better part of a month counting tank cars in a Kansas City railroad yard" in 1965. The investor was digging into Studebaker and wanted to gauge the demand for STP, a gasoline additive sold by one of the vehicle maker's subsidiaries.

      He knew where Studebaker was sourcing a key ingredient for STP, and how much it needed to produce one can. Tallying railcars indicated that STP production was ramping up, prompting him to pounce on the stock.

      Young Warren Buffett
      Warren Buffett as a young man.

    4. As a graduate student, Buffett took a train from New York City to Washington on a Saturday morning in 1951, only to arrive at Geico's offices and find the doors locked.

      He banged until a bemused janitor let him in and directed him to the only other person he'd seen in the building: Lorimer Davidson, the future CEO of the insurance company.

      Buffett seized the chance to pepper Davidson with questions about insurance for four hours. The answers confirmed he'd found a winner; he went on to invest about two-thirds of his net worth in the stock, and Berkshire acquired the business in full in 1996.

    5. In the mid-1950s, Buffett dispatched a partner to track down shares of National American Fire Insurance held by farmers scattered across Omaha.

      "He cruised around the state in a red-and-white Chevrolet, showing up in rural county courthouses and banks, casually asking who might own shares of National American," Schroeder writes about Buffett's associate in her book.

      "He sat on front porches, drinking iced tea, eating pie with farmers and their wives, and offering cash for their stock certificates."

    6. Buffett took a different tack in his search for Union Street Railway stock in 1954. The company was seeking to buy back shares by running ads in a local paper, so Buffett ran his own ad inviting stockholders to sell to him instead, Schroeder writes.

      He also woke up at about 4 a.m. on a weekend to drive to New Bedford, Massachusetts, and meet the company's boss.

    Buffett is known for investing based on fundamentals like company cash flows and price-to-earnings ratios. But Gardner's examples show he ventures far beyond financials and is both persistent and creative in his information hunts and stock searches.

    Read the original article on Business Insider