• Some 20 million Americans are prepared for major disruptions of public services.
• When bracing for weeks of outages, there's one place many "preppers" love to go: Costco.
• From gold bars to toilet paper, the wholesale club is a top choice for disaster readiness.

As modern life gets increasingly comfortable, it can also get more anxious.

For a growing number of Americans, this means preparing for the possibility of major disruptions of public services as a result of natural disasters or other doomsday scenarios.

According to an analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data, some 20 million Americans can withstand a full month of self-reliance. Within that number, there are those who identify as part of "preppers" communities online, which include enthusiasts stocking up on years' worth of supplies or building bunkers.

When stocking up for weeks of outages, there's one place many of these preppers love to go: Costco.

A recent New York Times feature about the Fortitude Ranch prepping community included a photo of a well-provisioned pantry with multiple bottles of Kirkland Signature vitamins and antacid tablets.

"Heading to Costco this week and was planning on getting some prepping necessities," one user posted on the r/preppers sub-Reddit back in February. "My plan was to grab a couple bags of rice and some canned food for long term food storage. Anything else I should consider while there? Thanks!"

The list of supplies in the replies was extensive: butter, protein bars, coffee beans, medicine, and (of course) bins to store it all.

And it doesn't stop there. Need a generator? Costco has them. Apocalyptic quantities of toilet paper and bottled water? You bet.

The wholesale club is also a huge seller of gold and silver bars and coins, which are extremely popular among those who are concerned about a breakdown of the financial system. (A one-ounce silver coin is currently worth about $30.)

There are also ready-to-go food kits in a variety of sizes, one of which contains 130 meals that last 25 years and costs $63. Bigger budgets can spring for the palletized version containing 36 kits with more than 13,000 servings for $6,000.

Of course, prepping requires a fair amount of disposable income, since the activity is necessarily about buying stuff and not using it.

Still, John Ramey, the founder of a popular prepping website, told the Times he expects business in the space to grow.

"The market for preparedness will continue to grow as the world continues on the wrong trajectory," he said.

• A Vice President JD Vance could be awful news for Ukraine in a Trump administration.
• He has repeatedly made his position clear on Ukraine: no more military aid.
• But his role as vice president on foreign policy shouldn't be overstated, experts told BI.

Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has made his stance on Ukraine clear: He doesn't "really care" what happens to Ukraine.

The Ohio senator, who was named GOP nominee for Vice President on Monday, made the comments during an episode of Steve Bannon's War Room podcast days before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Since then, the 39-year-old has attempted to block millions of dollars in government aid to Ukraine and has criticized the Biden administration for its focus on the invasion.

If Vance is elected as Trump's vice president in November, the country's war efforts could suffer a massive setback, experts say.

Vance and Trump will likely try to block future Ukraine aid

Mark Temnycky, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, told Business Insider that Trump and Vance will likely try to block or scale back US aid if they are elected in November.

"Ukraine would have to rely more heavily on European assistance and involvement as the US scales back," Temnycky said.

An unnamed senior EU official told Politico that the appointment of Vance is a "disaster" for Ukraine and the European Union as it continues to support the nation.

According to its website, the EU has provided €88 billion, or around $95.7 billion, in economic, humanitarian, and military aid since the beginning of the invasion.

Meanwhile, the US had sent $175 billion in aid to Ukraine as of May, per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Vance was one of 18 senators who voted against a $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel in April.

The bill was ultimately approved, though Vance told reporters that it was "pretty clear to Europe and the rest of the world that America can't write blank checks indefinitely," according to Politico.

Speaking on Steve Bannon's War Room podcast in February 2022, he said: "I'm sick of Joe Biden focusing on the border of a country I don't care about while he lets the border of his own country become a total war zone."

Vance's criticism echoes comments made by Trump, who said in May that he would be able to end the war in 24 hours if he became president.

"He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That's precisely why neocon donors [who want more aid for Ukraine] fear him," Tucker Carlson told Axios on Tuesday.

Speaking at a campaign rally in Detroit in June, Trump criticized the scale of the US' financial support for Ukraine.

"He just left four days ago with $60 billion, and he gets home, and he announces that he needs another $60 billion. It never ends," he said, referring to Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to Politico.

Will Vance's views change once he's in office?

Nonetheless, experts say it's difficult to judge Vance and Trump's position before they get to the White House.

Sergej Sumlenny, founder of the European Resilience Initiative Center, a German think-tank, told BI that no scenario is out of the question.

"The short answer is that nobody knows. Nobody knows because they could do anything," he said.

"Vance is famous for constantly changing his positions. He was a fierce opponent of Trump, and now he is his vice president," he added.

"While Vance has come out strongly against Ukraine, he hasn't been in a top job, and as vice president, I expect to see his views evolve," Melinda Haring, a senior advisor for Razom for Ukraine, a US-based charity, told Reuters.

The vice president's role shouldn't be overstated

Vance could wield significant influence on Trump as vice president, but his role shouldn't be overstated, according to Tom Packer, an Honorary Research Fellow at the Institute of the Americas at University College London.

"The vice president has got very little power," he told BI.

While Vance is "clearly anti-interventionist; he clearly wants to pull back from a kind of strong confrontation with Russia," the vice president's job is not one that has "control over foreign policy."

Vance "won't be making foreign policy decisions," Packer said.

Andrew Payne, a Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Security at City, University of London, made a similar statement.

"It is important not to overstate the role of the vice president in foreign affairs," he told BI.

Very few vice presidents played a meaningful role in shaping foreign policy in modern times, with the most notable exceptions being Walter Mondale and Dick Cheney, he said.

"But in both cases, the presidents in question — Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush — proved willing to delegate authority in ways that would seemingly be anathema to Trump, given his "I alone can fix it" brand of leadership," he said.

Still, Vance's elevation as not just Trump's VP pick but also the possible heir apparent to his MAGA political empire is a signal about the future of the Republican platform.

A pick like Sen. Marco Rubio — a more moderate voice on foreign police — would have been less concerning to Ukraine's backers. A vice presidential nominee who had a measured policy on Ukraine could have been an olive branch to the few remaining Reagan-era conservatives who fiercely opposed Russian aggression.

But by choosing Vance, Trump is doubling down on his effort to reshape the GOP to fit his agenda, isolationist policies and all.

• A new $600 million Zyn factory is expected to open in Colorado late next year.
• Zyn has been in high demand in the US, fueling shortages of the nicotine pouches.
• Research studies and medical experts warn nicotine can be addictive and have long-term health effects.

Zyn is ramping up production with a new US factory amid high demand for the brand's nicotine pouches nationwide.

Zyn's parent company, Philip Morris International, will invest $600 million over the next two years to open a new manufacturing plant in Aurora, Colorado, the tobacco giant announced Tuesday.

The facility is expected to open for preliminary operations by the end of next year and start regular production in 2026.

An existing Zyn facility in Owensboro, Kentucky, will also increase production to help meet soaring demand for the nicotine pouches in the US.

Philip Morris International, which owns Zyn maker Swedish Match, said in February that nearly 385 million cans of the flavored nicotine pouches shipped in the US in 2023, up 62% year over year. The company expects even more this year, forecasting US shipment of roughly 520 million cans.

Soaring demand has created shortages of the nicotine pouches, with PMI's chief financial officer, Emmanuel Babeau, saying in April that there were "some tensions on the supply chain, without any doubt."

Zyn, which has been available in the US since 2014, has seen a spike in popularity thanks to social media and shifting consumer tastes. Some white-collar workers turn to Zyn on the job, and some people have tried using the pouches for weight loss, though medical experts warn it hasn't been well-studied to evaluate efficacy and safety.

Research studies and medical experts warn nicotine can be addictive and can have negative long-term effects on the body, including the cardiovascular, respiratory, and nervous systems.

• The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway in Milwaukee.
• On Monday, Donald Trump made his first public appearance since surviving an assassination attempt.
• Speakers include GOP lawmakers, Trump family members, and Trump's running mate, JD Vance.

The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway in Milwaukee, and there have already been a number of standout moments.

Former President Donald Trump made his first public appearance since surviving an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. He also announced his pick for vice president, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.

Photos show some of the biggest moments from the convention so far.

Security was tight at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum as the Republican National Convention began days after Donald Trump survived an attempt on his life.

The US Secret Service is under scrutiny following the shooting at a Pennsylvania Trump rally on Saturday that killed one attendee, wounded two others, and left Trump bleeding from an injury to his ear.

Delegates were emotional as "God Bless the USA" played during the first day of the convention.

Florida delegate Rick Roth raised his fist in the air as the song played, mimicking Trump's defiant pose as the former president was rushed to safety after the shooting.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson was whisked off stage when the teleprompter malfunctioned.

"It is now my honor to introduce the attorney general. And there goes the teleprompter," he said while he was supposed to be introducing Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird.

The band played music to fill the silence as Johnson exited the stage.

In her speech, Trump loyalist Marjorie Taylor Greene railed against "the establishment in Washington" and "illegal aliens."

Greene began her speech by acknowledging the death of Corey Comperatore, who died while shielding his family during the Trump rally shooting, and then proceeded with her usual Trumpian talking points.

Of Biden and Democrats, Greene said, "They promised unity and delivered division. They promised peace and brought war. They promised normalcy and gave us transgender visibility day on Easter Sunday."

Donald Trump made his first public appearance since surviving an assassination attempt.

Trump arrived at the convention with a bandage covering the ear that was struck during the shooting.

JD Vance, Trump's pick for vice president, entered the convention with his wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance.

The 39-year-old Ohio senator, a former "Never Trumper" who rose to fame as the author of the best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy," would be one of the youngest vice presidents in US history if elected.

Trump sat next to Vance, as well as Donald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, Eric Trump, Lara Trump, and Tiffany Trump.

Eric Trump's wife, Lara Trump, co-chairs the Republican National Committee. Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle have also remained heavily involved in Trump's 2024 campaign.

Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Jared Kushner did not attend the first day of the convention.

In one of the night's high-profile speeches, Amber Rose shared how she initially believed that Trump was a "racist" until she "did her research."

Rose, a model and reality TV star, slammed "left-wing propaganda" in her speech, saying that "the media has lied to us about Donald Trump."

"I realized Donald Trump and his supporters don't care if you're Black, white, gay or straight, it's all love," Rose said. "And that's when it hit me: These are my people. This is where I belong. So, I let go of my fear of judgment, of being misunderstood, of getting attacked by the left, and I put the red hat on too."

• J.D. Vance began bashing Donald Trump even before the former president took office.
• Over the years, he gradually went from MAGA-hater to MAGA darling.
• Vance has expressed regret for his past comments while celebrating his ability to change his mind.

Donald Trump has not only selected J.D. Vance as his running mate, but also appointed him the unofficial heir of the MAGA movement. But Vance hasn't always been all-in on Trump — in fact, he hurled some pretty nasty insults at the former president fewer than 10 years ago.

Here's a timeline of how Vance went from a "Never Trumper" to MAGA loyalist and second-in-command.

February 2016

Just a few months after Trump announced he was running for president, Vance texted a former roommate from Yale Law School that he feared the political hopeful might be "America's Hitler."

February 18, 2016

In a column for USA Today, Vance reflected on a GOP primary debate and said that "Trump's actual policy proposals, such as they are, range from immoral to absurd."

June 28, 2016

Vance published "Hillbilly Elegy," which focuses on his experience growing up poor in Ohio and Kentucky. The novel became a New York Times bestseller and, with its emphasis on the white working class, was largely seen as an explanation for Trump's rise. At the time, Vance self-identified as a "Never Trumper."

July 4, 2016

Writing for a magazine he now conflates with elitism, Vance said in The Atlantic that Trump is "cultural heroin."

August 17, 2016

In an interview with NPR, Vance said that he "can't stomach Trump" and that the former president "is leading the white working class to a very dark place."

October 9, 2016

After the "Access Hollywood" tape, in which Trump brags about groping women, surfaced, Vance sent off a fiery Tweet: "Trump makes people I care about afraid. Immigrants, Muslims, etc. Because of this I find him reprehensible. God wants better of us." Vance has since deleted the message.

October 18, 2016

Sitting for an interview with Charlie Rose, Vance said plainly, "I'm a 'Never Trump' guy. I never liked him."

November 8, 2016

At the ballot box, Vance did not cast his vote for Trump. He voted for Evan McMullin, an independent.

June 22, 2017

While discussing a bill working its way through Congress over Twitter DMs, Vance took another dig at the former president's character, referring to the former president as a "moral disaster."

February 2, 2018

Vance began to soften his tone in 2018 and lauded Trump's broad appeal. He told the Financial Times that Trump "recognizes the frustration that exists in large parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky and so forth," and called the former president the "least worrisome" part of the GOP's problems.

March 9, 2019

While speaking at an event for The American Conservative, a magazine, Vance said that Trump's policies on China were a "wild success."

2020

Vance supported Trump's bid for reelection and cast a vote in his name.

March 2021

In a radio interview, Vance said that he came to support Trump because he was pleasantly surprised by the former president's policies.

"I didn't think the policy was going to be that good, and the policy was much better than I thought it was going to be," he said. "I was really happy with the policy. And so, that's what caused me to become a Trump supporter."

July 2021

Vance launches his Senate campaign, becoming one of many GOP hopefuls in Ohio vying for Trump's endorsement.

Around the time that he started his campaign, Vance became a frequent guest on "Tucker Carlson Tonight," then at the height of its cable glory.

August 24, 2021

Vance went on Fox News and lamented his former stance on Trump, saying, "I regret being wrong about the guy.

October 23, 2021

Cementing his loyalty to Trump, Vance told an Ohio newspaper that he doubted the legitimacy of the 2020 election. He said that "there were certainly people voting illegally on a large-scale basis.

April 2022

By this point, Vance's attempts to endear himself to Trump appeared to pay off — the former president endorsed Vance's Senate bid.

January 31, 2023

The next year, Vance offered an endorsement of his own. In an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, Vance celebrated Trump's isolationist foreign policy tactics and officially supported his reelection campaign.

June 13, 2024

Now firmly established as Trump loyalist — and staunch conservative in the Senate — Vance kept it simple in an interview with the New York Times.

"I like him," he said of the former president.

July 15, 2024

Clearly, the affection is mutual. On the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump ended his dramatic veepstakes and selected Vance as his running mate.

In his first interview as the GOP nominee for Vice President, Vance proved why Trump chose him above all others — he spoke confidently and cogently on all things MAGA, from specific policy initiatives to Trump's fitness for office. He will seemingly be a loyal running mate and eventual vice president should Trump win. He said his could-be job would be to "support the president in enacting the agenda."

Vance did not shy away from questions about his former opinions and celebrated his ability to change his mind.

"I was certainly skeptical of Donald Trump in 2016, but President Trump was a great president and he changed my mind," he said. "I bought into the media's lies and distortions."

• Sam Altman discussed the possibility of society granting some confidentiality around what people tell AI.
• As AI systems grow more popular, safeguarding the sensitive info that consumers share is key.
• Altman brought up the idea of "AI privilege" while talking about his new AI health venture with Arianna Huffington.

Should the sensitive information we share with AI be regulated under some form of confidentiality agreement similar to attorney-client privilege?

Sam Altman mulled the idea in a recent interview with The Atlantic, saying that society may decide "there's some version of AI privilege."

"When you talk to a doctor or a lawyer, there's medical privileges, legal privileges," Altman said in the interview. "There's no current concept of that when you talk to an AI, but maybe there should be."

The topic came up during a conversation with the OpenAI CEO and media mogul Arianna Huffington about their new AI health venture, Thrive AI Health. The company promises an AI health coach that tracks users' health data and provides personalized recommendations on things like sleep, movement, and nutrition.

As AI systems and products are implemented at increasing numbers of companies, regulating how that data is stored and shared has become a hot topic.

Laws like HIPAA make it illegal for doctors to disclose sensitive patient health data without the patient's permission. The agreement is important because it allows patients to feel comfortable being honest with their doctors, which can lead to better and more accurate solutions.

But some patients still have trouble opening up to doctors or seeking medical attention, and that's part of what motivated Altman to become involved with Thrive AI, he told The Atlantic. Other factors include the cost of healthcare and accessibility, according to an Op-Ed that Altman and Huffington wrote about the new venture in Time.

Altman said that he's been surprised by how many people are willing to share information with a large language model, or the AI systems that power chatbots like ChatGPT or Google's Gemini. He told The Atlantic that he's read Reddit threads about people who found success telling LLMs things they weren't comfortable sharing with others.

While Thrive AI is still figuring out what its product will look like, Huffington said in the interview she envisioned it being "available through every possible mode," including workplace platforms.

That, of course, raises concerns about data storage and regulation. Big tech companies have already faced lawsuits over claims they trained their AI models on content they didn't have a licensing agreement with. Health information is some of the most valuable and private data that individuals have, and it could also be used by companies to train LLMs.

Altman told The Atlantic it would be "super important to make it clear to people how data privacy works."

"But in our experience, people understand this pretty well," Altman added.

OpenAI's Startup Fund and Thrive Global announced the launch of Thrive AI Health last week. The company said it seeks to use AI "to democratize access to expert-level health coaching" and tackle "growing health inequities."

• Business Insider asked bartenders which drinks they would never order in the summer. 
• Refrain from ordering an Irish coffee when temperatures are on the rise. 
• The bartenders also said to steer clear of drinks with dairy and lots of sugar.

Summer is one of the best times to kick back and relax, which, for some people, means hitting the bar with friends.

Whether you're going to a crowded spot on the Las Vegas Strip or a small neighborhood establishment, there's no getting past the soaring alcohol prices. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, getting a beer, cocktail, or glass of wine at a restaurant or bar is two to three times as expensive this summer as it was last year.

The last thing you want to do is waste your money, so to help narrow down your options, Business Insider asked bartenders which drinks they never order in the summer.

Don’t order a hot drink.

If it's hot outside, steer clear of hot drinks at the bar.

"It is way too hot during the summer to be ordering any warm coffee-based drink such as an Irish coffee," Charles Mcintyre, lead bartender at Bar WooWoo in the Sky Rock Sedona hotel in Arizona, told BI.

Other drinks that fall in this category include hot toddies and mulled wine.

Nick Jackson, head bartender at The Rum House in New York City, also said that in the summer, bars may not even have the equipment or ingredients needed for traditional hot cocktails.

Skip the creamy cocktails.

If you're looking for a refreshing drink on a nice, warm night, milk isn't a great choice.

"I wouldn't order heavy, creamy cocktails like a White Russian or a brandy Alexander," said Eric Lopez, a bartender at Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach.

Avoid sugary drinks.

According to Lopez, sugary cocktails like a Dirty Shirley (a Shirley Temple with a shot of vodka) can be dehydrating. Plus, after the sugar spike, you may crash and be too tired to continue your night out.

"Instead, I would opt for a Singapore sling or a classic mai tai or a cucumber cooler to refresh and keep you hydrated," he told BI.

Keep the bloody marys to a minimum.

Will Hancock, bartender at Linger Longer Lounge in Phoenix, said to avoid spicy, tomato-based cocktails, like a bloody mary or a bloody maria (tequila instead of vodka).

"I can't think of a more counterintuitive summer beverage than a spicy, salty, and thick tomato soup with cheese or smoked meat as a garnish," he told BI. "You'll be dehydrated before you can finish it."

Refrain from whiskey if you can help it.

Although an old-fashioned or a Manhattan might sound good, think twice before ordering whiskey-based cocktails in the summer.

"These whiskey-forward cocktails tend to fall into the 'nightcap region,' designed to highlight the aged spirit and wind you down," Demi Park, bar manager at Paradisaea in California, told BI.

Deep-flavored, heavy drinks aren't refreshing and likely won't keep you going on a long summer night.

Ditch the piña coladas.

Kat Gallardo, mixologist at Four Flamingos in Florida, shared the controversial opinion that piña coladas are a no-go in the summer.

"The most ordered cocktail at a beach bar is, in reality, an unbalanced sugar bomb," she told BI. "That shot of rum disappears after being in the blender."

Gallardo recommended a Papa Doble made with light rum, grapefruit juice, maraschino liqueur, lime juice, and simple syrup if you want less sugar and more rum.

Save the egg nog for winter.

According to Jason Bradley, senior food and beverage operations manager at the Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort, eggnog is a delicious beverage choice … for winter.

"Unless I'm celebrating Christmas in July, you won't see me looking in the direction of a cocktail with whole eggs as an ingredient in over-100-degree weather — they'd probably scramble," he told BI.

For your bartender's sake, don’t order a Ramos gin fizz.

A Ramos gin fizz is a perfectly suitable drink at a quiet cocktail bar or restaurant, but it can take a toll on busy bartenders during hot, crowded summer nights.

"The work that goes into the cocktail with the egg and heavy cream is master-level dedication," said Tyler Chauvin, assistant general manager of food and beverage at Swingers NoMad.

The complex cocktail, made from gin, citrus, simple syrup, egg white, heavy cream, orange flower water, and club soda, typically requires shaking for up to 15 minutes to get the signature foamy top.

• Joe Biden's recent interviews highlighted the very weaknesses Democrats are worried about.
• Biden stumbled over words and seemed defensive and unwilling to accept he was losing in the polls.
• Some of the most crucial voters to Biden's reelection increasingly want him replaced.

President Joe Biden's performance in two new interviews this week likely won't do much to quell Democrats' fears about his fitness for the job.

And in comparison to Donald Trump's projections of strength after Saturday's assassination attempt against him, Biden may now be looking even weaker to Democrats who fear their candidate will lose in November.

In an interview with NBC News' Lester Holt on Monday, Biden appeared feeble, soft-spoken, and, at times, couldn't seem to finish his train of thought.

At one point, Holt asked Biden about a recent statement he had made saying it was time to put Trump in the "bull's-eye."

But in his response to Holt, Biden said he "didn't say crosshairs," appearing to confuse the word Holt had asked about.

Biden also repeatedly snapped at Holt, expressing his frustration with the media's coverage of his debate performance, saying things like, "What's with you guys? Come on, man."

In another interview with Complex, which was recorded the day before Trump's attempted assassination but aired on Monday, Biden also spoke slowly and softly, and gave rambling and long-winded answers.

When asked what Biden would say to voters who had decided to pick Trump, the president responded, "Lots of luck in your senior year," an idiom Biden has used repeatedly that has puzzled viewers.

While Biden's appearance in these interviews was nowhere near as disastrous as his June 27 debate against Trump, he didn't exactly hit it out of the ballpark.

Biden's allies immediately praised his combative stance with the media and polling as proof of his vigor. But his unsteady interviews can't rest easy with the growing contingent of Democrats who, for weeks, have been calling on Biden to drop out of the race.

Though the push for Biden to step aside has largely paused in the aftermath of Saturday's violence, they haven't been put to rest altogether.

Democratic insiders and strategists are not only still concerned about Biden's campaign, but also increasingly worried that the attempt on Trump's life will only make him look stronger to voters in comparison to Biden, Newsweek reported.

Voters, too, are growing increasingly skeptical of Biden's ability to beat Trump and serve out another term.

A new survey conducted on Monday by Morning Consult found that the number of Democratic voters who say Biden should be replaced as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has ticked up in recent weeks. According to the July 15 survey, 48% believe Biden should be replaced on the ticket and 43% believe he should not — and that's up from 47% and 41%, respectively, of Democratic voters polled immediately after the debate.

Those numbers are even more dramatic among Black and Hispanic voters — two of the most important groups to Biden's reelection coalition — the survey found. When polled on Monday, 55% of Black voters and 64% of Hispanic voters said Biden should be replaced — compared to 48% and 58% who thought so on June 28.

But Biden is swearing to press on. Close ally and civil rights leader Rev. Al Sharpton posted a statement backing the president on Monday evening, just before Biden's NBC interview.

"Just got a call from President Joe Biden, he says that he is not going anywhere," Sharpton wrote. "He would like people to know that he called and he's determined to fight to protect our rights."

• John F. Kennedy Jr., his wife, and her sister died in a 1999 plane crash near Martha's Vineyard.
• The politician was just 38 years old when he died.
• Rumors of a "Kennedy curse" were fueled by multiple family tragedies over the decades.

The Kennedy family has been subjected to many tragedies over the years, including two assassinations and a plane crash that took the lives of John F. Kennedy Jr. and two other passengers.

Twenty-five years ago, on July 16, 1999, John F. Kennedy Jr., his wife Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy, and her older sister Lauren Bessette were killed in a plane crash off the coast of Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts. There were no survivors from the accident.

The deaths became a major news story and perpetuated rumors of a "Kennedy curse."

JFK Jr.'s father, former President John F. Kennedy, was assassinated in 1963. His uncle, Robert "Bobby" Kennedy, was assassinated five years later in 1968. And two years before JFK Jr.'s death, his cousin Michael Kennedy also died after hitting a tree while skiing in Aspen, Colorado.

Here's what we know about the plane crash that killed John F. Kennedy Jr. and two others.

John F. Kennedy Jr. frequently made headlines throughout the 1990s.

As the son of a president and a member of one of America's most prominent political dynasties, John F. Kennedy Jr. was destined for the spotlight.

JFK Jr. was born on November 25, 1960, just two weeks after his father was elected president. His father was assassinated on November 22, 1963, just three days shy of JFK Jr.'s third birthday.

History reported that JFK Jr., affectionately nicknamed "John-John" by the public, attended the funeral on his birthday and was famously photographed saluting his father's casket.

Throughout much of his adolescence and adulthood, he mostly remained out of the public eye.

However, according to History, his public image began to change after he introduced his uncle, Ted Kennedy, at the Democratic National Convention in 1988.

In September 1988, People named Kennedy, who was then a 27-year-old third-year law student at NYU, the "Sexiest Man Alive."

JFK Jr. also dated a few celebrities throughout the 1990s, including "Sex and the City" star Sarah Jessica Parker and Cindy Crawford, according to Town & Country.

John F. Kennedy Jr. began dating Carolyn Bessette, a publicist for Calvin Klein, in 1994.

Tall, sophisticated, and beautiful, JFK Jr.'s new girlfriend captivated the public.

After two years of dating, the pair married in an intimate ceremony on Cumberland Island, Georgia, People reported.

While their wedding ceremony was private, their relationship was anything but, thanks to the prying eyes of the paparazzi.

The media attention may have even inspired Kennedy to get his pilot's license in 1998.

"That was some of the happiest times he ever had. Floating around with the buzzards in his Buckeye [plane]. It was the freedom," his close friend Robbie Littell told "JFK Jr: An Intimate Oral Biography" author RoseMarie Terenzio, according to People.

"He said, 'It's the only place I can go where no one is bothering me. I have complete silence, and no one can get to me except the air traffic controllers.' Maybe that gives you insight into what he was really dealing with on the ground," his college friend Gary Ginsberg said, People reported.

John F. Kennedy Jr. was traveling to Martha's Vineyard with his wife and her older sister when their plane was reported missing.

The Washington Post reported that Kennedy departed Essex County Airport near Fairfield, New Jersey, at around 8:38 p.m. on Friday, July 16, 1999. The sun was already beginning to set and "hazy conditions," which had been reported earlier in the evening, were getting worse, People reported.

Kennedy planned to drop his sister-in-law Lauren Bessette on Martha's Vineyard before traveling to his family's compound in Hyannis Port with Carolyn. The couple was due to attend his cousin Rory Kennedy's wedding the following day, according to People.

However, the plane never landed in Martha's Vineyard.

An unidentified driver reported the plane had failed to arrive at Martha's Vineyard Airport as expected, according to the Post, citing an NBC report. It kicked off a search for the missing aircraft in the early hours of July 17.

The Kennedy family notified the Cape Cod Coast Guard that the couple had not made it back to Hyannis.

The Washington Post reported that the Coast Guard then began investigating whether the plane had landed at another airport.

By 4 a.m., the Coast Guard began searching for the missing plane, and by 7:30 a.m., the Air Force and Coast Guard had launched 20 aircraft vehicles and two boats to search the area between Long Island and Martha's Vineyard, according to the Post's timeline.

On Sunday afternoon, what was presumed to be debris from the plane was found on Philbin Beach on Martha's Vineyard. Among the debris was a headrest that was later concluded to be from the missing aircraft and a black suitcase that contained Lauren Bessette's business card.

Rory Kennedy's wedding, scheduled for 6 p.m. that night, was put on hold as the family awaited more news.

The Washington Post reported that after more debris was found in the days to follow, the search-and-rescue mission became a search-and-recovery mission.

All three of the plane's passengers were now presumed dead. John F. Kennedy Jr. was 38 years old. Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy was 33, and her sister Lauren Bessette was 34.

Five days after the crash, the bodies of John F. Kennedy Jr., Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy, and Lauren Bessette were recovered.

The debris field was identified off the coast of Martha's Vineyard, relatively near the estate once owned by Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, Kennedy's mother, The New York Times reported.

The bodies of John F. Kennedy Jr., Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy, and Lauren Bessette were discovered by Navy divers on July 22, 1999, after an extensive search approved by President Bill Clinton, per another New York Times report.

The bodies of the crash victims, which were ''near and under'' the main body of the aircraft, were still strapped in, according to the Times.

Details began to emerge about what led to the crash.

Kennedy had only flown about 72 hours without a flight instructor, and had only about 300 total hours of flying experience, The New York Times reported in July 2000. He had reportedly rejected an offer to have a flight instructor accompany the group on their journey.

As a newly trained pilot, Kennedy was not licensed to fly and navigate the air using flying instruments. Instead, he had only trained to fly using sight alone, which would have been extremely difficult in dark or hazy conditions such as those on the night of July 16.

Warren Morningstar, a spokesman for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, told the Times that "flying at night over featureless terrain or water, and particularly in haze or in overcast, is a prime setup for spatial disorientation."

About an hour into the trip, the plane's flight path became irregular as it began its descent into Martha's Vineyard, indicating that the pilot may have become disoriented by the darkness of the sky and the water, the National Transportation Safety Board concluded.

"His flight path into the water is consistent with what is known as a graveyard spiral," Jeff Guzzetti, an NTSB investigator in the accident, told Terenzio, according to People. "The airplane makes a spiral nose down … kind of like going down a drain. The plane went into one final turn and it stayed in that turn pretty much all the way down to the ocean."

The aircraft went down in the water about 7 miles from its intended destination of Martha's Vineyard.

According to The Washington Post, the plane did not send out a distress call. Instead, it made its final descent and crashed into the Atlantic Ocean in under 30 seconds.

Kennedy, Kennedy-Bessette, and Bessette's bodies were cremated and buried at sea off the coast of Martha's Vineyard on July 22, 1999.

"We are filled with unspeakable grief and sadness by the loss of John and Carolyn and Lauren Bessette," Ted Kennedy said in a statement on behalf of the Kennedy family, according to The Washington Post. "John was a shining light in all our lives and in the lives of the nation and the world that first came to know him as a little boy."

As the country mourned the loss, rumors of a "Kennedy curse" were reignited.

The extensive search captured the nation's attention, as did the tragedy of the three young passengers' deaths. Yet another tragic accident for the Kennedy family, the plane crash only added to rumors of a Kennedy family curse.

"I've looked high and low and cannot find another family since the ancient Greek House of Atreus that has suffered more calamities and misfortunes than the Kennedys," Edward Klein, the author of "The Kennedy Curse: Why Tragedy Has Haunted America's First Family for 150 Years," said, according to The Washington Post.

While there are many logical reasons for the fateful plane crash, it's nevertheless poignant that the Kennedy family, one of the wealthiest and most influential political families in the world, has suffered so much tragedy throughout the last 100 years.

"The humanity of their story is what keeps us engaged," Kennedy family biographer J. Randy Taraborrelli told NBC News in 2019.

"We peer behind the scenes of their wealthy lifestyle, and we see, for all the advantages they have, tragedy can still happen."

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Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has picked Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. More than just a VP pick, Vance could be the heir apparent to Trump's MAGA empire.

In today's big story, we're looking at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon predicting the long-awaited return of M&A.

What's on deck:

• Markets: Coatue's Philippe Laffont on how he's investing for an AI future.
• Tech: For Gen Z, working in tech has a negative aura.
• Business: The CEO of a PE firm explains why he swears by executive coaches.

But first, let's make a deal.

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The big story

Back to the negotiation table

The M&A drought that's kept investment bankers on the sidelines is on its last legs, according to Wall Street's top dealmaker.

Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon offered an optimistic view on the dealmaking landscape during the bank's second-quarter earnings calls on Monday, writes Business Insider's Reed Alexander.

Solomon said the bank is seeing a "backlog" of transactions, calling it the "early innings" of a turnaround for a sector that's been all but dead over the past few years.

If anyone would know about M&A's return, it's Goldman Sachs. The bank traditionally sits atop league tables ranking advisors of deals. Reed previously spoke to a dozen insiders about how Goldman bankers are raring to go after a tumultuous few years for the firm.

But even if Solomon's prediction is self-serving, that doesn't make it wrong. The bank's underwriting revenue rose 39% last quarter thanks to more leveraged finance. Translation: Private-equity firms, whose inactivity has been a big piece of the M&A slowdown, are borrowing cash in preparation to cut deals.

An M&A return isn't just good for bankers. The lack of deals has been a massive dam to the flow of the broader economy.

When dealmaking comes back, founders and early employees of startups can cash out and move on to fresh projects. Larger companies can make acquisitions that help them push into new areas.

The return of deals is one thing. Getting them done is something else entirely.

The last time M&A came back in a big way after a downturn was in the aftermath of the pandemic. By early 2021, junior bankers were burnt out from the onslaught of deals they were working on.

Goldman sat at the center of it. Some of the bank's young employees made presentations — How else do you expect a banker to communicate? — outlining their complaints to senior management, which eventually leaked and went viral.

A September rate cut and switch to a deal-friendly White House in November are near-term sparks that would set the industry off and running quickly again.

But the untimely death of a Bank of America investment banker in early May put Wall Street's working conditions back in the spotlight. So this time around, banks might look to AI for help.

Solomon said on Monday's call he sees AI helping "the factory of the business" by prepping info for clients.

That's the type of work that often falls to junior bankers. Analysts are responsible for building out presentations ahead of client meetings, during which more senior bankers lead.

While junior bankers might appreciate some help, it could ultimately spell trouble for them. The more work banks can farm out to generative AI, the less need they'll eventually have for them altogether.

3 things in markets

1. The "Trump trade" is in full swing. The failed assassination attempt of the former president is impacting the market, as investors reposition their portfolios for Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. In the short-term, one asset is thriving: bitcoin.
2. Why investors should be going for the gold, literally. George Milling-Stanley, State Street's chief gold strategist, believes the precious metal's price could rise more than 10% before year-end, reaching $2,700 per ounce. He made his case for why future rate cuts and geopolitical tension will be beneficial for gold.
3. Coatue's founder on the art of "buying high and selling low." French billionaire Philippe Laffont said at a recent conference there is no shame in investing in stocks that are already up big. It's why he sees no problem with the astronomical rise of some big semiconductor companies' stock prices. "If there is a bubble, it's not a valuation bubble," Laffont said.

3 things in tech

1. For Gen Z jobseekers, tech's vibes have gone rancid. Tech is losing its luster among high-achieving high schoolers. Promising young Gen Zers are turned off by the industry's ethical problems and non-commitments — and they see one surprising sector as a viable alternative.
2. Laid-off DEI chief blasts Microsoft for reneging ethical commitment. After Microsoft gutted an entire diversity, equity, and inclusion team, the team's leader skewered the company in an internal email sent to thousands of employees. The leader accused the giant of failing to invest in DEI and backsliding on its 2020 commitments.
3. A big potential acquisition for Google could lead to a regulatory showdown. The tech giant is eyeing a $23 billion deal to acquire the cybersecurity startup Wiz. If approved, it would be the company's biggest acquisition ever. Here's why Google's willing to risk the wrath of the FTC to do it.

3 things in business

1. A key shift in strategy (thanks to some coaching) revolutionized a private-equity firm. Alpine Investors, the firm behind a prestigious CEO-in-training program, struggled until it started working with executive coaches. The result was a new focus on talent that launched the firm to new heights.
2. What's Vivek doing with BuzzFeed? Vivek Ramaswamy spent millions snapping up the media company's shares in what seemed like a takeover attempt. But one of the deadlines he set has come and gone with no change whatsoever, which leaves us wondering: Now what?
3. BlackRock CEO says the answer to the US' debt problem is deregulation. In a CNBC appearance, Larry Fink said growth led by the private sector is essential to escape the rising national deficit. But that can only be achieved if businesses aren't restrained by overregulation, said Fink, who also argued against tax cuts and tax raises

In other news

• For 18 unprecedented days, Trump has kept coming out on top.
• Read the email CEO Jamie Dimon sent to JPMorgan employees after the assassination attempt on Trump.
• Trump says he'll give a 'whole different speech' at the RNC after assassination attempt.
• The delivery reckoning is here.
• Wendy's CEO got ripped for pushing dynamic pricing. It could be coming to a store near you.
• Exclusive: AI coding startup Anysphere is raising a new funding round with at least a $400 million valuation from A16z.
• Disney's internal Slack message data leaked in latest hack targeting a major company.
• 4 ways OpenAI's newest AI model GPT-4o can make you more productive at work.
• Elon Musk says Tesla needs 'extra time' to redesign the front of its Robotaxi before the big reveal.
• Amazon Prime Day delivery workers say they're planning to grab early-morning shifts and take toilet paper with them.

What's happening today

• It's Amazon Prime Day.
• Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, UnitedHealth and other companies report earnings.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.