Tag: Motley Fool

  • Meet the ASX ETF up 40% in 4 months

    A person with a round-mouthed expression clutches a device screen and looks shocked and surprised.A person with a round-mouthed expression clutches a device screen and looks shocked and surprised.

    The past four months or so have been especially lucrative for ASX investors. The ASX 200 dropped below 6,400 points in September last year. But since then, the Index has risen by more than 15%. That includes the impressive rally of 7.4% that the ASX 200 has enjoyed since the start of 2023.

    As such, most ASX-based index funds have risen by a similar amount over the past four months. But one ASX exchange-traded fund (ETF) has almost tripled this gain. It’s the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX).

    This ETF isn’t too hard to figure out. As its name implies, it invests in a portfolio of gold mining shares sourced from around the world. More than half of its holdings come from Canada. But the United States, Australia, South Africa, China, the United Kingdom, and Peru are also present in this ETF.

    Some of the VanEck Gold Miners ETFs’ top holdings include Newmont Corp, Barrick Gold Corp, Franco-Nevada Corp, and our own ASX gold shares Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).

    Overall, this ETF currently holds 49 individual gold shares within it.

    But let’s get down to performance.

    ASX gold ETF smashes the market’s returns

    So back in late September 2022, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF hit a new 52-week low of $33.72 per unit.

    But today, this ETF is trading at $46.84 per unit at the time of writing. That’s a good 38.9% above where it was back in late September. That’s close to triple the gains of the broader market:

    So why has this ETF been such a winner for investors of late?

    Well, again, it’s not too obscure. Gold itself has been on a bit of a tear recently. Back in late September last year, the precious metal was asking around US$1,630 per ounce. Today, you’ll have to hand over almost US$1,940 for that same ounce of yellow metal.

    Gold miners have relatively fixed costs. As such, their profits can increase exponentially when gold rises in price. That’s why miners tend to be viewed as a more leveraged way to gain exposure to gold.

    To illustrate, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rose 38.9% over the past four months, but an ASX ETF tracking the price of gold itself – the BetaShares Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: QAU) – is ‘only’ up by 17.5% over the same period.

    So that’s why the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has been such a winner for investors of late. However, this ETF is still down by around 23% from the highs of over $60 per unit that we saw back in 2020.

    The post Meet the ASX ETF up 40% in 4 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    “Cornerstone” ETFs for building long term wealth…

    Scott Phillips says plenty of people who hear the ‘ETFs are great’ story don’t realise one important thing. Not all ETFs are the same — or as good as you may think.

    To help investors navigate this often misunderstood area of the market, he’s released research revealing the “cornerstone” ETFs he thinks everyone should be looking at right now. (Plus which ones to avoid.)

    Click here to get all the details
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Newcrest Mining. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why Best & Less, Evolution, Mineral Resources, and St Barbara shares are dropping

    Three guys in shirts and ties give the thumbs down.

    Three guys in shirts and ties give the thumbs down.In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has dropped into the red following the release of a higher than expected inflation reading. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.25% to 7,471.7 points.

    Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

    Best & Less Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: BST)

    The Best & Less share price is down 7% to $1.96. Investors have been selling this discount retailer’s shares following the release of a disappointing trading update. Although the retailer reported a 13% jump in half year revenue, it expects to record a first half profit after tax of $13.7 million. This will be down 32% over the prior corresponding period due to significant margin pressure.

    Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

    The Evolution Mining share price is down almost 4% to $3.28. A number of brokers have responded negatively to this gold miner’s quarterly update. One of those was Ord Minnett, which has downgraded Evolution’s shares to a hold rating with a $3.20 price target. It was a touch underwhelmed with the company’s performance during the December quarter.

    Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

    The Mineral Resources share price is down 4% to $92.57. This follows the release of the mining and mining services company’s quarterly update. Although Mineral Resources reported a strong increase in lithium shipments, its iron ore shipments fell quarter on quarter. The company also revealed that its Mt Marion expansion has been delayed.

    St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM)

    The St Barbara share price is down 13.5% to 77 cents. Investors have been hitting the sell button after the gold miner delivered another disappointing quarterly update. For the three months ended 31 December, the company delivered gold production of 60,976 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,666 per ounce. The latter is higher than the A$2,591 per ounce it received for its gold during the period.

    The post Why Best & Less, Evolution, Mineral Resources, and St Barbara shares are dropping appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Are stocks setting up for a big rally?

    There’s a lot of fear in the market…

    Which means now could be the exact time to be scooping up great stocks at potentially steep discounts.

    Especially when some have pulled back as much as 50% off recent highs…

    Five years from now, we think you’ll probably wish you’d bought these ‘pullback stocks’…

    See The 4 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Consumer spending defies logic as inflation rages higher, locking in yet another interest rate hike in February

    A woman holds her head and screams.A woman holds her head and screams.

    1) It has been a flying start for the ASX so far in 2023, with the AFR reporting the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is “off to the best start in at least 30 years.”

    Quite remarkably, given all we’ve been through over the past two “covid” years – particularly the pandemic itself, high inflation and sharply higher interest rates – the ASX 200 index is trading within a whisker of its all time highs.

    It’s in sharp contrast to the beatings handed out to growth shares, particularly in the US, with the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) down over 16% in the last 12 months.

    Australian investors can thank our lucky stars the ASX 200 index has a hefty weighting to commodities – particularly oil and coal – helping propel the Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price 246% higher these past 12 months, with the Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price 50% higher over the same period.

    2) Most of the heavy lifting has already been done by central banks as they’ve undertaken one of the most aggressive periods of sustained interest rate hikes in history in the fight against rampant inflation.

    All eyes now are on the economy, and whether the landing will be hard or soft.

    So far so good for the optimists, with consumers continuing to spend even as they face sharply higher mortgage repayments as low fixed rate deals roll off this year and next.

    A trading update from shoe retailer Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1) said “trade has continued to be strong through November and December” with sales above expectations. Admittedly against softer “covid” trade last year, Accent total sales are up 39% for FY23, a stunning performance for a somewhat discretionary retailer.

    Not surprisingly, the Accent Group share price is up 9% to $2.09 in Wednesday morning trade. Accent shares trade at around 15 times forward earnings and on a forecast fully franked dividend yield of around 5%… not cheap if consumers start putting their hands in their pockets later this year. 

    3) Consumer behaviour has me baffled. Given the coming interest rate shock, given consumer confidence is deeply pessimistic and given the falling house prices, I’d have thought people would be battening down the hatches, preparing for tough times ahead.

    But no. Revenge spending post covid carries on, not this time on the stock market and online shopping, but on shoes, restaurants and travel. 

    With most working-age Australians never having experienced a “proper” recession, coupled with low unemployment and a high savings rate, consumers are partying now and worrying about tomorrow when it comes. 

    Helping too are superannuation balances, hardly moved for many Australians despite the macroeconomic ructions felt here and around the world. 

    She’ll be right mate.

    4) Before today, some economists were predicting/hoping the Reserve Bank of Australia would hold interest rates at the upcoming February meeting. 

    Deloitte Access Economics said there is an “everest of evidence” to suggest that the Reserve Bank should hold the rate next month.

    “Australia’s consumer-led recovery is rapidly running out of road, with the combination of falling house prices, rising interest rates, high inflation, low levels of consumer confidence, and negative real wage growth expected to combine to see spending growth decelerate markedly over coming months,” said Deloitte’s Stephen Smith on Investor Daily

    Just like I was saying…

    Except, today’s inflation print came in hot after headline inflation of 7.8%, comfortably ahead of expectations.

    Cue the ASX 200 index going into a sharp reverse and Australian bond yields spiking higher. Cue also a locked-in 25 basis point rise in the cash rate in February. 

    Inflation is not done with yet. 

    Just when you thought we’re through the worst, there could be pain ahead for equity investors, and more pain for interest-rate sensitive growth shares.

    5) Speaking of pain, uber-bear Jeremy Granthan is quoted on Bloomberg as saying the popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market.

    The 84-year old money manager says the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) could decline as much as 20% from current levels, adding…

    “There are more things that can go wrong than there are that can go right. There’s a definite chance that things could go wrong and that we could have basically the system start to go completely wrong on a global basis.”

    According to one poster on Twitter, the last time Jeremy Grantham was bullish was 2009 and by January 2010 he was already calling the market a bubble. 

    The post Consumer spending defies logic as inflation rages higher, locking in yet another interest rate hike in February appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the ‘five best ASX stocks’ for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Bruce Jackson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Which ASX lithium share executive just invested $1.5 million in his company?

    A cute little kid in a suit pulls a shocked face as he talks on his smartphone.A cute little kid in a suit pulls a shocked face as he talks on his smartphone.

    The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is in the green today, up 0.65% to $1.55 at the time of writing.

    Liontown chair Tim Goyder is likely quite pleased. Five days ago, he picked up an extra $1.5 million worth of Liontown shares in on-market trades. And he got them for a great price, too.

    While the average price paid is not revealed in the ASX lodgement from the company, the trades took place on 20 January. On that day, the highest price Liontown shares traded at was $1.465. Its lowest price was $1.28 and its closing price was $1.375. The shares dived after a market announcement.

    Goyder purchased one million shares directly on-market. There was a further 145,000 Liontown shares purchased indirectly, also on-market, in the name of his wife, Linda Goyder, and related entities.

    If we assume he paid the highest price of the day, he’s sitting on a tidy five-day profit of $127,500 at today’s current price.

    But that’s a drop in the bucket when we consider that Goyder owns more than 162.5 million shares directly. And that excludes the hundreds of millions of shares he holds in his family trust and superannuation fund, too.

    What’s the lesson for investors?

    The lesson for ordinary investors here is the confidence that this sort of insider investment inspires.

    Goyder wouldn’t have so much personal wealth tied up in Liontown shares if he didn’t think the future was bright.

    This is despite Liontown being unlikely to post a profit in 2023, as my colleague Brooke reported yesterday.

    It’s also unlikely that Goyder and his wife would be putting $1.5 million of their own money in now if Goyder thought the ASX lithium share price was overvalued either.

    In fact, broker Bell Potter reckons there’s a potential 80% upside to be had over the next 12 months alone given its share price target of $2.81 on Liontown.

    Goyder is a well-known mining entrepreneur with more than four decades of experience. He has founded and run several ASX-listed companies over the years, including Chalice Mining Ltd (ASX: CHN).

    He retired as Chalice Mining chair after 15 years at the helm in 2021.

    In addition to being chairperson of Liontown, Goyder is currently the chair of DevEx Resources Ltd (ASX: DEV).

    He is also a non-executive director of Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6) as well as the unlisted clean energy technology company, entX Limited.

    What’s the latest news from this ASX lithium share?

    Goyder’s purchases occurred on the same day as Liontown’s latest price-sensitive update.

    As my Fool colleague James reported, the update was about Liontown’s Kathleen Valley Lithium Project in Western Australia.

    The update revealed that construction is going to cost more than previous estimates. This is partly because the company has optimised the plant capacity design to increase the initial throughput rate by 20% to 3Mtpa.

    In its announcement, the company said this would enable it “to take advantage of strong short and medium-term forecast lithium pricing”.

    The project remains on track for its first production in mid-2024.

    The post Which ASX lithium share executive just invested $1.5 million in his company? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    FREE Investing Guide for Beginners

    Despite what some people may say – we believe investing in shares doesn’t have to be overwhelming or complicated…

    For over a decade, we’ve been helping everyday Aussies get started on their journey.

    And to help even more people cut through some of the confusion “experts’” seem to want to perpetuate – we’ve created a brand-new “how to” guide.

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    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • ASX 200 tumbles as inflation surprises to the upside

    a man with a moustache sits at his computer with his hands over his eyes making a gap between his fingers so he can peek through to his computer screen.

    a man with a moustache sits at his computer with his hands over his eyes making a gap between his fingers so he can peek through to his computer screen.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was in the green today right up to 11.30am AEDT. Then the benchmark index tumbled 0.6% in a matter of minutes.

    That came right after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its inflation data for the December quarter.

    As you’d expect by the fall in the ASX 200, those inflation figures came in higher than market expectations.

    What did the ABS report?

    The ABS revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.9% in the December quarter, bringing the annual inflation rate to 7.8%.

    That’s significantly higher than economists’ consensus forecasts of a 1.6% quarterly increase and 7.6% annual inflation rate. And ASX 200 investors are responding by hitting the sell button today, following a remarkably strong run for the benchmark index so far in 2023.

    Commenting on the data, ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said:

    This is the fourth consecutive quarter to show a rise greater than any seen since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2000. The increase for the quarter was slightly higher than the quarterly movements for the September and June quarters last year, both 1.8%.

    The 7.8% year-on-year increase in the CPI was predominantly driven by a 17.8% increase in new dwelling prices, a 19.8% increase in the cost of domestic holiday travel and accommodations, and a 13.2% increase in the price of automotive fuel.

    Why is the ASX 200 under pressure today?

    As mentioned up top, the latest inflation figures have come in higher than the market had priced in. And that’s seeing some selling action on the ASX 200 as we head into the lunch hour.

    The higher figures matter because it’s now more likely that investors can expect another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

    In an effort to bring inflation back under control, the RBA has already instituted eight consecutive monthly interest rate increases. That commenced with the 0.25% lift on 4 May, which brought the official cash rate to 0.35%.

    Today the cash rate stands at 3.10%. And ASX 200 investors are on tenterhooks as to the central bank’s next decision when the board meets on Tuesday, 7 February.

    With inflation still running hot, the odds of the RBA taking a pause in its tightening path have grown far slimmer.

    “Inflationary pressures have not peaked as expected, so we can expect rate hikes to continue or even increase,” ASX equities analyst at Stake, Dylan Zhang, said.

    “It’s likely we’ll see a 25bps hike at the next RBA meeting, but a 50bps hike is not unthinkable,” he added.

    The post ASX 200 tumbles as inflation surprises to the upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    3 Stocks for Runaway Inflation

    As the world suffers price shocks… and the cost of everything seems to be ticking higher…

    These 3 ASX stocks could be the answer to runaway inflation. Boasting key qualities companies need to not only survive but actively thrive when costs surge.

    Act fast — because in times of inflation, the worst thing you can do is… nothing.

    Learn More
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is this ASX All Ords gold share crashing 16% today?

    A woman holds a gold bar in one hand and puts her other hand to her forehead with an apprehensive and concerned expression on her face after watching the Ramelius share price fall today

    A woman holds a gold bar in one hand and puts her other hand to her forehead with an apprehensive and concerned expression on her face after watching the Ramelius share price fall today

    The St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) share price is having a day to forget on Wednesday.

    At the time of writing, ASX All Ords gold share is down 16% to 75 cents.

    As you can see below, this latest decline means the St Barbara share price is now down 42% since this time last year despite a recent rebound.

    Why is this ASX All Ords gold share being hammered today?

    Investors have been hitting the sell button today after St Barbara released yet another abject quarterly update.

    According to the release, for the three months ended 31 December, the company delivered gold production of 60,976 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,666 per ounce.

    This represents a disappointing mix of lower production and higher costs quarter on quarter. For example, compared to the first quarter, production was down 4.3% and its ASIC was up 7.1%.

    And with St Barbara commanding a realised gold price of A$2,591 per ounce for the period, it was costing the ASX All Ords gold share more to mine the precious metal than it received from customers.

    Another cause for concern is the company’s balance sheet. St Barbara ended the period with total debt owing of C$80 million and A$50 million on its syndicated facility. This compares to its cash balance of just $38 million.

    Outlook

    Shareholders will no doubt be hoping that the company’s proposed merger with Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) to form Hoover House will be the start of better things.

    Hoover House will be one of Australia’s leading gold houses, with a production target of +300,000 ounces per annum, a long-life, high quality asset base and substantial potential for organic growth.

    The merger is expected to unlock substantial, near-term synergies for both sets of shareholders, as well as resetting the combined entity’s corporate support model.

    Overall, the merger is expected to either defer or eliminate ~A$400 million of capital expenditure, reducing near-term execution risk and funding requirements.

    The post Why is this ASX All Ords gold share crashing 16% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    One great investor says, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”

    With so much fear in the market, Warren Buffett’s been using the sell-off as an opportunity to buy the dip…

    Where he’s reportedly spent tens of billions of dollars buying up stocks…

    And while you’re free to go about buying Citigroup, Paramount, and Occidental Petroleum…

    We think these 4 world class stocks could be even better…

    See The 4 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 3 ASX shares I dream of owning at the right price

    a man lies on his back on grass with his eyes shut and a contented look on his face as though he is dreaminga man lies on his back on grass with his eyes shut and a contented look on his face as though he is dreaming

    There are many ASX shares vying for a position in my portfolio at any single point in time. Companies that exhibit impressive revenue growth, sell incredibly valuable products/services, and are leaders in their fields.

    However, as amazing as these businesses might be, many fail to meet one of the most important hurdles … the right price. More specifically, a price that is accommodative to the errors we all will inevitably make from time to time as investors.

    The margin of safety is one of the most important investing principles, yet I rarely hear it discussed. This is despite it being one of the few things that can be controlled as a small shareholder. Several years of returns can be engulfed by paying too high of a price for even quality companies.

    Below are three ASX shares that I believe are exceptional businesses, but trade on exceptionally high valuations.

    I’d buy these ASX shares if the price was right

    Objective Corporation Limited (ASX: OCL)

    Objective Corp is possibly my favourite company on this list, making it into my top 10 picks for 2023. The company provides a broad range of software solutions to both the public and private sectors.

    Thirty-six years on from its inception and Objective Corp is still delivering 20% year-on-year earnings growth. Another enticing trait is the company’s rock-solid balance sheet, with no debt and $63.8 million in cash. Not to mention it is founder-led by Tony Walls, who holds an ownership stake of more than 65% in the company.

    Unfortunately, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 73 times offers little in the way of a margin of safety. Even if Objective’s revenue grows at 20% over the next five years, most of that appears to be priced in. I’d happily add this ASX share to my portfolio if the price was more in the ballpark of $8 to $9.

    Currently, it trades at $14.80.

    Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV)

    This is a company I had held previously in my portfolio but decided to remove it due to its deteriorating balance sheet.

    Polynovo leverages its proprietary polymer technology for wound treatment and burns. Impressively, the company’s revenue has been growing at a 62% clip in the last year, reaching $41.9 million. Though, expansion to new markets and customers is still in the early stages.

    Furthermore, Polynovo has recently undertaken a $30 million institutional placement, fortifying its balance sheet once more. Though, the business is still loss-making.

    The rapid revenue growth is alluring, but the industry can be competitive. For example, Avita Medical Inc (ASX: AVH) offers a burn treatment of its own that comes in a spray-on form.

    Given that Polynovo is yet to prove its profitability, I’m personally holding out for a share price below $1.30. At present, shares in this ASX medical company are fetching $2.50 apiece.

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    I’d assume I’m not alone in dreaming of owning a piece of this Australian biotech beast.

    CSL is a company that probably needs no introduction. Its expansive portfolio of intellectual property puts it on the world stage of healthcare expertise — covering antibodies, clotting agents, and HPV and flu vaccines.

    The company’s medical technology is hard to replicate and is usually protected by law, leading to profit margins above 20%. Additionally, the management team has demonstrated exceptional ability in making accretive acquisitions over the years.

    Nonetheless, at an earnings multiple of 39 times FY25 forecast earnings for the company, CSL’s valuation is a bit difficult for me to swallow. I’d personally love to add CSL to my portfolio at a price below $200 compared to its current $295.

    The post 3 ASX shares I dream of owning at the right price appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

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    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Avita Medical, CSL, Objective, and PolyNovo. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Avita Medical. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • The Zip share price: Has it bottomed out?

    Little girl looking down trying to zip up her pink windcheater.

    Little girl looking down trying to zip up her pink windcheater.The Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) share price has seen an enormous amount of pain. Over the past year it’s down more than 70%.

    But, interestingly, the company has risen by over 40% in the last month. This may beg the question – has the buy now, pay later business seen the worst of the decline?

    The higher interest rates have significantly changed the picture for Zip. Not only has it completely taken the heat out of high growth and speculative ASX shares in general, but the economics of buy now, pay later may be impacted in time as their interest costs rise.

    Remember, the BNPL players don’t operate with much of a profit margin, so higher interest costs could significantly change the long-term outlook of the business.

    Latest quarterly update

    One of the factors that can negatively impact the share price of a business is if investors believe the company will need to carry out a capital raising to continue to fund its operations until it can reach breakeven.

    A capital raising would mean the company’s (future) earnings are being split between more shares. Businesses also typically have to do a capital raising at a discount to the share price to make it enticing to investors.

    Earlier this week, Zip released its update for the three months to 31 December 2022.

    It announced quarterly revenue of $188 million, which was up 12% year over year.

    Zip revealed that the cash transaction margin was 2.6% for the quarter, up from 2.2% in the first quarter of FY23, which it said was in line with medium-term targets. Management said this was a great result in a rising interest rate environment. This margin could be key for the Zip share price.

    The revenue margin was 6.9%, up from 6.4% in the second quarter of FY22, which reportedly reflected seasonality.

    At 31 December, the company had cash and liquidity of $78.5 million, which it said it “expected to be sufficient reserves to support the company through” to cash profitability at the earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBTDA) level.

    A large factor for the improving situation may be pinned on the performance of the US segment.

    Zip US achieved positive cash EBTDA in November and December and “is on track to exit FY23 cash EBTDA positive on a sustainable basis.” Zip saw credit loss rates improve “substantially to 1.1% of total transaction value (TTV)”, down from 2.4% in the first quarter of FY23.

    Has the Zip share price bottomed?

    My crystal ball isn’t working at the moment. But, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) saw lows last year during June and October, when fears about inflation and interest rates were particularly elevated. Just the easing of investor pessimism may mean we’ve already seen the worst for the Zip share price.

    The fact that the business is seeing increasing profitability is a good sign, particularly if Zip can show it’s getting closer to sustainable operations. But, cash EBTDA is not the same as making a net profit after tax (NPAT).

    Analysts are mixed on Zip shares at the moment. According to Commsec, two analysts rate it as a buy, three rate it as a hold and four rate it as a sell.

    Zip isn’t one on my watchlist, but if I had to guess I’d say it is likely to have already seen the bottom as long as it keeps moving towards cash breakeven.

    The post The Zip share price: Has it bottomed out? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

    Man sits smiling at a computer showing graphs

    Man sits smiling at a computer showing graphs

    Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models again, leading to the release of a number of broker notes this week.

    Three ASX shares brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why they are bullish on them:

    Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

    According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their add rating and $25.00 price target on this appliance manufacturer’s shares. Although the broker acknowledges that Breville’s product range is clearly discretionary and expects to demand to weaken in the months ahead, it believes its shares are great value. Particularly in comparison to rival DeLonghi. It suspects that a solid result in February could put a rocket under them. The Breville share price is trading at $22.17 today.

    Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

    A note out of Goldman Sachs reveals that its analysts have initiated coverage on this insurance and banking giant’s shares with a buy rating and $13.88 price target. The broker believes rate increases have been strong and accelerated during the first half. It also suspects that a clear and rational focus on pricing and margins will offset higher reinsurance costs, perils allowances, and underlying claims inflation. Another positive is the prospect of significant capital returns after the sale of its banking operations. The Suncorp share price is fetching $12.75 today.

    Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

    Another note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have retained their add rating and $6.70 price target on this fashion retailer’s shares. Morgans believes that Universal Store is one of the most underrated retailers on the Australian share market. It highlights that the company offers investors network growth, resilient demand, and price and cost discipline. The Universal Store share price is trading at $5.76 this afternoon.

    The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is this ASX retail share suddenly plunging 4% today?

    A white candle with a smoking wick symbolising the fall in the Dusk share price todayA white candle with a smoking wick symbolising the fall in the Dusk share price today

    It’s been a relatively positive start to this Wednesday’s trading session on the ASX boards. At the time of writing, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up by a tentative 0.05% at just over 7,700 points. But one ASX retail share that seems to be bucking the broader market is Dusk Group Ltd (ASX: DSK).

    Dusk shares aren’t having a great time of it today. While the All Ords is in positive territory, the Dusk share price has plunged by 2.9% at the time of writing to $2.01 a share. That’s after closing at $2.07 yesterday.

    It was even worse for Dusk this morning too. Just after market open, the candle and fragrance company fell as low as $1.98 a share. That was a fall of around 4% at the time.

    So what’s going on with Dusk today that has elicited this market-bucking fall?

    King cashes out

    Well, it could have something to do with the ASX announcement Dusk released to the markets before the opening bell this morning.

    This ASX release announced the resignation of Dusk’s long-term CEO Peter King. King has been CEO of Dusk since 2014 but will step down from the role in August this year. A successor has not yet been chosen. But Dusk has declared that “a search will now commence for a new CEO”.

    Here’s some of what the now-outgoing CEO had to say about his departure:

    Having just completed my ninth Christmas as CEO of dusk, I believe now is the right time for someone else to take the Company forward. I would like to acknowledge the hard work of our executive team and thank the Board for their support and guidance.

    Dusk’s culture is deeply rooted in our commitment to delight our customers with affordable everyday luxury. I am focused on closing out FY23 strongly and will work closely with the Board to identify an outstanding future leader for the Company.

    Chair John Joyce added the following:

    The Board would like to thank Peter for the invaluable contribution he has made since 2014. The Company has been transformed under his leadership. Peter has built an outstanding executive team, dramatically grown our revenues and earnings, driven the omnichannel transformation strategy, and led the IPO in 2020. He will leave the business in excellent shape.

    Peter is a ‘team and Company first’ leader. Consistent with this approach, Peter will continue to lead dusk through to mid2023. Peter plans to do a fulsome handover to a new CEO when identified…

    Dusk is scheduled to provide its earnings report for the first half of FY2023 next month on 24 February. The company has stated that investors will be updated on the search for a new Dusk CEO when these earnings are released.

    Dusk share price snapshot

    As the company alluded to in its announcement today, Dusk is an ASX retail share that has been listed since it first IPOed in November 2020. The company reached a share price high of over $4 back in mid-2021. But Dusk has fallen significantly since then.

    Today, Dusk is going for $2 a share, and remains up by around 18% since its IPO:

    At the current Dusk share price, this ASX retail share has a market capitalisation of $124.5 million, with a trailing dividend yield of 10%.

    The post Why is this ASX retail share suddenly plunging 4% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Could This Be the Next Amazon?

    Why these four e-commerce stocks may be the perfect buy for the “new normal” facing the retail industry

    See the 4 stocks
    *Returns as of January 5 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Dusk Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Dusk Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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