Tag: Stock pick

The rally of ASX tech share Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) this year has been spectacular. However, the share price has seen a strong pull-back in the last two weeks.

Codan has lost 15% of its value, after hitting a new all-time high of $36.92 early November. Wednesday was another loss-making day for the ASX tech share, when it closed at $29.44, almost 4% lower than the day before.   

Unique business profile

Codan is an Adelaide based global developer with a dual focus: communications and metal detection. This gives the technology company a unique profile. It’s not just a hardware tech player, but also a business with deep roots in both gold-driven markets and defence communications.

The communications division is now the growth engine of Codan. It designs and builds mission-critical communications equipment, drones and defence and public safety comms gear.  The shift toward defence communications means Codan is less exposed to the boom-bust cycles of gold prospecting.

Through its Minelab brand, acquired almost 20 years ago, Codan produces metal detectors used for everything from recreational prospecting to humanitarian demining and security.   

Gold rally inspired Codan’s dream-run

This ASX tech share has had a great run in 2025, up 83% in 2025, including a more than 20% lift in October. Codan delivered strong growth in FY25, with group revenue up 22%, EBIT expanding 28%, and net profit after tax (NPAT) rising 27%.

The communications segment was the standout performer, delivering 26% revenue growth and 34% profit growth. Looking ahead to FY26, management said that positive market conditions had continued into FY25, supporting Codan’s growth outlook.

CEO Alf Ianniello commented at last month’s AGM:

Elevated defence spending and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support demand across Codan’s Communications markets, with the business remaining on track to deliver 15 to 20% revenue growth for FY26.

Last month’s rally was mainly driven by the roaring gold price, which set a new all-time record above US$4,300 per ounce. Strong gold prices are helping spur demand for Minelab detectors, especially in regions like Africa.

Valuation concerns

The recent pullback looks largely driven by valuation concerns and investors cashing some of their gains.  Several analysts seem cautious that much of the gain in Codan’s share price is already baked in.

The majority of brokers is cautiously positive, but there’s no outright bullishness. Many analysts feel that the ASX tech share is now trading closer to fair value than earlier this month. The average 12-month price target forecasted by brokers is $32, implying a modest 8% upside from the current share price.    

The post Has this high-flying ASX tech share run out of steam? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why Arafura Rare Earths, Bapcor, Codan, and Newmont shares are sinking today

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) is an ASX 200 materials stock that has had a tough year. 

The company is a global leading producer and marketer of fibre cement building products. It is also a major supplier of fibre gypsum and cement-bonded boards in Europe.

This week, the company had two key announcements concerning its leadership.  

First, the appointment of Ryan Lada as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Lada succeeds Rachel Wilson, who has decided to step down after two years in her role.

Second, the appointment of Nigel Stein as Chair of the James Hardie Board of Directors. 

Despite the change in leadership, this ASX 200 stock continued to see its share price fall. 

In the last month, its share price is down almost 20%. 

This includes a drop of almost 4% yesterday. 

Its share price is down almost 52% in the last year. 

Time to buy low?

After falling significantly this past year, the team at Morgans seems to believe this ASX 200 stock now offers significant upside. 

In a note out of the broker yesterday, it said the 2QFY26 results were incrementally more positive than previously anticipated. 

Morgans said an upgraded guidance reflects a c.6% organic decline (vs pcp), as a challenging environment sees volume declines exceed price increases. 

However, this is better than feared and may prove to be a bottoming in the cycle as demand stabilises. 

JHX is trading on c.17.1x FY26F as the business navigates its acquisition missteps, earnings downgrades and a challenging consumer environment in North America (NA). However, at EPS of c.U$1.04/sh in FY26 we see upside from both earnings and an undemanding PER (ave PER. 20x).

Target price upside for this ASX 200 stock

Based on this guidance, the broker has a buy recommendation and $35.50 target price.

From yesterday’s closing price of $26.91, this indicates an upside of 31.92%. 

Morgans aren’t the only broker suggesting this ASX 200 stock is undervalued. 

Yesterday, the Motley Fool’s Samantha Menzies reported that Macquarie has upgraded its 12-month price target to $41.70 (previously $40.60). 

This indicates more than 50% upside. 

The post Down 20% in a month, this ASX 200 stock is a buy according to Morgans appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As most ASX investors would be aware, the Australian stock market has had a rough couple of weeks. As it stands today, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is now down by a hefty 7.2% or so since the last record high in late October. Some ASX stocks have fallen by less than that, others by more. Let’s talk about one ASX dividend stock that falls into the latter camp.

That ASX dividend stock is none other than Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

Wesfarmers is well-known in the ASX investing community, given it is a large, blue chip stock that has been listed for decades. More broadly, though, Wesfarmers is less well-known. However, many of the underlying companies this conglomerate owns and runs are household names. These range from Target and OfficeWorks to Kmart and Bunnings, its two crown jewels.

But Wesfarmers owns far more than those four retailers. This company has its fingers in many a pie, ranging from mining and chemical manufacturing to gas distribution and pharmacies.

This inherent diversity makes Wesfarmers a compelling investment case on its own, given that an investor is buying into a healthy mix of different businesses that span different corners of the economy. But that diversification is just one of the reasons I consider this ASX dividend stock to be a magnificent buy-and-hold-for-decades investment.

Why this ASX dividend stock is a magnificent investment

Wesfarmers, although diversified, has proven itself to be a prudent and shareholder-focused steward of investors’ capital. It has always been prepared to throw money after its successes, whilst cutting its losses on ideas that are past their peak.

Its spinoff of Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) back in 2018 has been an unbridled success or shareholders, as has its acquisition of Priceline so far.

But it is the Wesfarmers share price that shines the brightest light on why this is a magnificent ASX dividend stock. Over the past ten years, Wesfarmers shares have grown by an average rate of approximately 8.34% per annum. And that’s including its recent 15% slump.

Including dividends, which Wesfarmers has steadily been increasing for years now, that return stretches to about 11.7% per annum, making this stock a bona fide market beater.

Speaking of share price slumps, Wesfarmers has indeed come off the boil in recent weeks. This ASX dividend stock has dropped from its October record high of $95.18 to just over $80 a share today. That’s a loss worth 15% or so.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.2, and a dividend yield of 2.56% today, it’s still hard to call Wesfarmers cheap. However, it is a lot cheaper than it has been. And besides, quality rarely comes cheap on the ASX.

The post 1 magnificent ASX dividend stock down 15% to buy and hold for decades appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

A start-up artificial intelligence company is making headlines today after announcing deals with two of the world’s largest tech companies. Anthropic is securing $5 billion from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), while leading chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is investing $10 billion in the latest deals to fuel AI’s rapid expansion.

Both companies have high hopes that the deals with Anthropic, an AI research company valued at over $180 billion, will strengthen their market-leading positions. But which stock is the better buy following these transactions?

About the deals

The partnerships among the three companies were announced in a blog post on Nov. 18. In short, Anthropic will scale up its Claude AI model on Microsoft’s cloud computing platform, Azure, and it will use Nvidia’s Blackwell and Rubin semiconductors to provide the compute power.

It’s the first partnership between Anthropic and Nvidia, the world’s leading producer of data center graphics processing units (GPUs) required for training and running high-performance AI programs. The companies said that Nvidia and Anthropic will collaborate on design and engineering to optimize Anthropic’s AI models.

Anthropic’s deal with Microsoft will make the AI company’s Claude large language model (LLM) available to Microsoft Foundry customers, and will make Cloud the only frontier LLM available on the three leading cloud services – Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Alphabet‘s Google Cloud.

Anthropic is committed to purchasing $30 billion in Azure compute capacity and will have a contract for additional compute capacity of up to 1 gigawatt. 

Which stock is better after the Anthropic deal?

While both benefit, I think there’s a clear winner here. However, first, it’s essential to examine some background information.

Microsoft was one of the early investors in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, but the nature of that relationship is evolving. Last month, OpenAI announced it struck a deal with Microsoft that allows the company to restructure and frees it from giving Microsoft rights over OpenAI’s work in exchange for cloud computing services. Microsoft still has a 27% stake in OpenAI, but the private company will now have greater control over its business operations.

Anthropic was founded by a former OpenAI executive and emphasizes AI safety, transparency, and research, in contrast to OpenAI’s focus on general advancement and accessibility.

Make no mistake — OpenAI and Anthropic will be competitors for a long time. Microsoft is working with both of them and hopes both will continue to grow. However, if Anthropic begins cutting too severely into ChatGPT’s market share, Microsoft’s $135 billion investment in OpenAI could be at risk.

Nvidia, however, has no such conflicts. OpenAI and Anthropic both rely heavily on its GPUs, and as both companies expand their products, they will need more computing power and more support from Nvidia.

I like both Microsoft and Nvidia. But if you’re picking a winner in today’s news, my money’s on Nvidia stock. 

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Nvidia and Microsoft land a multibillion-dollar Anthropic partnership. Which stock benefits most? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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Patrick Sanders has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The market has taken a beating this month as volatility surged, interest rate uncertainty spooked investors, and tech valuations came under pressure. While that kind of pullback can feel unsettling, it often creates some of the best opportunities long-term investors will see all year.

Several high-quality Australian stocks have been dragged down with the broader market. And for patient investors, that combination of temporary weakness can be a gift.

With that in mind, here are three outstanding Australian stocks that analysts think look compelling after the recent selloff.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL was for a long time one of the most reliable long-term compounders on the Australian share market. However, its shares have been hit hard over the past year due to concerns around margin recovery, restructuring costs, and uncertainty surrounding the planned Seqirus demerger.

But zoom out, and the long-term investment case remains extremely strong. CSL’s core plasma business is benefiting from growing collections, improving efficiencies, and rising global demand for critical therapies. The biotech company continues to invest heavily in its pipeline, with new treatments and market expansions expected to support earnings over the decade ahead.

Importantly, CSL’s valuation has become materially more attractive. For example, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) currently has an outperform rating and $275.20 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of more than 50% from current levels.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Another Australian stock that has fallen heavily from its highs is NextDC.

It has been caught up in the tech-led market pullback, despite its exceptional underlying momentum. The company continues to expand aggressively to meet soaring demand for data storage, cloud services, and high-performance computing. These are structural trends that remain in their early innings.

With hyperscale customers scaling up AI workloads and enterprises shifting more operations into the cloud, NextDC is positioned squarely at the centre of one of the most powerful megatrends of the next decade. Its pipeline of new facilities, long-term contracted revenue, and high customer stickiness give the business a remarkable degree of predictability.

Macquarie also recently put an outperform rating on this stock with a $20.90 price target. This suggests that upside of over 50% is possible over the next 12 months.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

Finally, TechnologyOne’s share price crash this week has come despite the company delivering another year of record profit, record ARR, and strong cashflow. The market’s reaction appears more about valuation resets and profit-taking than any deterioration in fundamentals.

The core business remains in excellent shape. TechnologyOne continues to win new customers across government, education, and corporate markets, while its SaaS+ model is transforming the speed and efficiency of ERP deployments. ARR is growing strongly, its UK expansion is accelerating, and the company has deepened its product moat through heavy investment in R&D and AI-driven enhancements.

Shaw and Partners thinks that investors should be buying the dip. This morning, the broker upgraded this Australian stock to a buy rating with a $37.30 price target. This implies potential upside of almost 30% from current levels.

The post 3 of the best Australian stocks to buy after the market selloff appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL, Nextdc, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Macquarie Group, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Gqg Partners, Light & Wonder Inc, and Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of ASX shares to choose from on the Australian market.

To narrow things down, let’s take a look at three that Ord Minnett is bullish on right now.

Here’s what it is recommending:

Brazilian Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: BRE)

If you are looking for rare earths exposure, Ord Minnett thinks that Brazilian Rare Earths could be the way to do it. Though, only if you have a high tolerance for risk. The broker has put a speculative buy rating and $6.30 price target on its shares.

It believes the company is well-placed to monetise its rare earth discoveries and bauxite resources. It said:

Its shares have climbed 145% since 20 August but we expect there is much more to come as it progresses plans to monetise its rare earth discoveries and bauxite resources. Carester are the French REO experts also assisting Iluka Resources (ILU) with technical advice for its Eneabba refinery. Carester is also building the France–Japan Caremag refinery in France using feedstock of recycled magnets and rare earth oxide (REO) concentrates, which is due to start in late 2026. ‍ Brazil Rare Earths’ provincial-scale tenements in Brazil include multiple rare earth deposits and 568 million tonnes(Mt) of bauxite, including 98Mt of direct shipping ore (DSO).

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

Another ASX share that has caught the eye of Ord Minnett is travel technology company Siteminder. It has put a buy rating and $7.97 price target on its shares.

The broker feels that the market is seriously undervaluing its shares at current levels. It explains:

The SiteMinder investor day led Ord Minnett to reiterate its view that the current share price reflects a ‘ground zero’ view of the future. In other words, the market is attributing little or no value to the potential upside from the Channels Plus (C+) and Dynamic Revenue Plus (DRP) products. We consider this approach unwise given the weight of industry feedback we have received over the last 18 months.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

A third ASX share that has been given the thumbs up by its analysts is Universal Store. Ord Minnett has an accumulate rating and $9.60 price target on its shares.

It feels its shares are good value given its positive growth outlook. The broker said:

Ord Minnett cut its EPS forecasts for FY26–28 by 4–6% to reflect management’s guidance that sales comparisons will become more challenging in the remainder of FY26, and that Universal will continue to reinvest in the business, prioritising long-term growth over short-term profits. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is in line with the average listed ASX retailer. ‍With a $17 million net cash position, expected 10% per annum EPS growth over two years, and further market share opportunities as competitors exit, we retain a Accumulate rating on Universal. Our price target falls to $9.60 from $9.80 to reflect the EPS downgrades.

The post Why Ord Minnett is bullish on these ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Back in November of 2021, it seemed Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares could do no wrong.

The company had emerged relatively unscathed from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Profits were healthy, the dividends were flowing and, just a few months prior, the ‘Fresh Food People’s stock had hit a new record high of over $42 a share.

What a difference four years can make.

Today, Woolworths investors are at the tail end of the worst two years the company has faced since the Masters hardware debacle ended a decade ago.

As it currently stands, Woolworths shares are languishing at just $27.85 each (at the time of writing) after hitting a new 52-week (and seven-year) low of $25.51 last month.

Nothing seems to have gone right for this veteran supermarket operator of late. Last year’s CEO transition was less than seamless for one. For another, the company has continued to be outshone by its arch-rival Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). The market found the latest set of full-year results, released back in late August, particularly disturbing. The company’s shares were down almost 15% on the day they came out.

Long-term Woolworths investors’ pain has been exacerbated by the valuation premium Woolworths shares used to enjoy. This gave the company a higher ledge to fall off when sentiment turned. It used to be common for Woolworths shares to trade on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 35. Today, its unadjusted earnings multiple is under 24.

How much have Woolworths shares lost over the past four years?

But time to put some numbers to Woolworths’ pain. If you picked up Woolworths shares exactly four years ago, you would have been able to buy them for $40.22 (the closing share price on 19 November 2021).

If an investor had bought $5,000 worth of Woolworths shares back then, that parcel would be worth just $3,462.20 today. That’s not factoring in brokerage or other costs.

That’s a loss worth 30.76%. Ouch.

Of course, Woolworth shares have also paid out dividends over those past four years though, which do mitigate these losses somewhat. Those dividends amounted to a collective $4.24 per share, meaning our $5,000 would have attracted approximately $527.10 in dividends. Thus, we are left with a final figure of $3,989.30 from our original $5,000. A loss of 20.21%.

So I can conclude by saying that ‘thank goodness I didn’t buy Woolworths shares four years ago’. Hopefully, the next four years will be kinder to this ASX 200 veteran.

The post Thank goodness I didn’t invest $5,000 in Woolworths shares 4 years ago appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares have been under significant pressure this week.

The enterprise software provider’s shares sank 17% on Tuesday despite releasing a record result for FY 2025.

Has this created a buying opportunity? Let’s see what analysts are saying about the tech stock.

Should you buy TechnologyOne shares?

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their hold rating on the company’s shares with a reduced price target of $33.00.

Commenting on the result, the broker said:

FY25 PBT of $181.5m was close to in line with our forecast of $182.4m and VA consensus of $181.8m. The result was still ahead of guidance, however, which was PBT growth of 13-17% and the result was 19% growth.

Bell Potter advised that it has trimmed its valuation to reflect a re-rating in the tech sector this month. It adds:

We have reduced the multiples we apply in the PE ratio and EV/EBITDA valuations from 80x and 42.5x to 65x and 35x due to the recent de-rating in the tech sector and the multiples being applied. We have also increased the WACC we apply in the DCF from 7.9% to 8.1% for the same reason.

The net result is a 13% decrease in our PT to $33.50 which is <15% premium to the share price so we maintain our HOLD recommendation. We note the outlook is little changed and we still forecast strong double digit growth over the medium term but the current FY26 PE ratio of c.60x is still demanding in our view and equates to a PEG ratio of around 3x.

Over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), its analysts are also sitting on the fence with TechnologyOne shares. This morning, they have retained their neutral rating with a $28.20 price target.

Macquarie is concerned that it may get worse before it gets better for the company. The broker commented:

Long-term story remains attractive, but it may get worse before it gets better. Valuation rebased post-result, but slowing growth, higher costs, and a lack of clear positive catalysts in the near-term while still trading at ~62x NTM PER suggests there may be further downside risk. Retain Neutral.

Broker upgrade

Finally, the team at Morgans doesn’t agree. Its analysts have upgraded TechnologyOne’s shares to an accumulate rating with a $34.50 price target. They said:

TNE’s FY25 result was largely in line with our expectations with the group delivering, PBT growth of +19% to $181.5m ahead of its 13-17% guidance range, and in line with consensus. The negative share price reaction appears to have been driven by softer than expected ARR/NRR print, which saw a 2% miss to ARR growth expectations vs consensus, despite this, the group continues to deliver, with ARR of $554.6m (+18% YoY), which along with its NRR growth of 115% continues to see TNE Ontrack to achieve its long-term ARR growth aspirations. We modestly pare our EPS forecasts by 1-3% in FY26-28F. and move to an ACCUMULATE rating, with our target price $34.50 now reflecting a TSR of +19% following TNE’s post result share price movement.

The post Should you buy TechnologyOne shares after they crashed 17%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have been one of the best investments over the past several years. However, with the iron ore price not exactly booming, it’s important to know where the dividend is projected to go in the next few years.

The miner’s key commodity is iron ore; it’s less diversified than BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) because those two are also involved in copper and other commodities.

Fortescue’s FY25 dividend suffered a significant decline, so let’s take a look at what experts think of the dividend outlook.

FY26

The company recently reported its FY26 first-quarter update, and broker UBS analysed the numbers. It said that the three months to September 2025 were “solid” with a “strong” sold price for its commodities.

UBS said Fortescue’s hematite (iron ore) shipments of 47.6 million tonnes (mt) were in line with expectations, as were production costs. However, the higher-grade Iron Bridge shipments were 11% lower than expected as the ramp-up of that project continues, though the realised price was 9% stronger than expected.

The business is expecting FY26 shipments to be between 195mt to 205mt, while C1 costs are expected to between US$17.50 to US$18.50 per tonne.

UBS said that while iron ore fundamentals have been “tighter than expected” on a range of factors, it’s still expecting conditions to weaken as Simandou ramps up over the next three years.

The broker believes iron ore low-grade discounts (to the regular grade) are expected to stay narrow, which is promising for the price Fortescue can sell for its production.

Either way, UBS suggests that China’s economic outlook will be “pivotal” and US trade policy could be “key” for the foreseeable future.

After taking that into account, UBS predicts Fortescue could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.29 in FY26. At the time of writing, this translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 9.1%, including franking credits.

FY27

UBS is currently forecasting that the Fortescue earnings and dividend per share could fall back in the 2027 financial year, which could be its worst output for many years, if the projections come true.

The broker has predicted that owners of Fortescue shares could receive an annual dividend per share of 72 cents.

FY28

It could get slightly better for the business in FY28, though still substantially below what it’s projected to pay in the 2026 financial year.

UBS projects that Fortescue could pay shareholders an annual dividend per share of 78 cents.

FY29

Fortescue could see another improvement in the 2029 financial year based on UBS’ projections for the ASX mining share.

The iron ore miner is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of 85 cents in FY29.

FY30

The 2030 financial year is a long way away, a lot could happen with iron ore prices between now and then.

If UBS’ projections come true, then the miner could pay owners of Fortescue shares an annual dividend per share of 89 cents.

The post Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2030 for Fortescue shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.