Tag: Stock pick

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares were once a sizeable part of my portfolio, but I recently sold my last holdings in the ASX mining share.

This year has been rough for the ASX mining share, as the chart below shows. But, I’m pleased I was able to sell at a good price and move on to businesses I’m more optimistic about.

I originally bought Fortescue shares (at a low price) when there were significant concerns about the iron ore sector due to slowing demand from China, which buys a large majority of the iron ore exported from Australia.

When demand drops (or supply increases), it can lead to a decline in the iron ore price. That situation can create a good time to buy.

But a key driver of my original investment was also based on the company’s green energy goals.

Why I decided to sell out of Fortescue shares

A few years ago, the company outlined its plans to become a major producer of green hydrogen and green ammonia, positioning itself to diversify its earnings and tap into what seemed to be a promising area for long-term growth. It even signed a few customers for green hydrogen.

However, things have changed a lot since the early 2020s.

While the US may have been a key driver of a possible green energy future under President Biden, there has been a clear shift in the last year (or longer) in some areas of the world.

Rising inflation seemed to mean climate action became less important for households, politicians, and businesses. President Trump’s win also changed the energy focus of the world’s biggest economy.

Fortescue’s priority now seems to be decarbonising its own operations. That’s probably a prudent move, but the step down in ambitions about green energy production reduced my interest in the business’ long-term prospects.

The other reason I decided to sell Fortescue shares was that the iron ore supply and demand relationship no longer looks as appealing as it once did.

China’s economy is not firing, and with US tariffs on the country, I’m not sure how strongly it’s going to perform in the foreseeable future. Plus, major iron ore miners are trying to increase production, adding to the supply side of the equation. The new Simandou project in Africa, in particular, could be a headwind for the iron ore price, unless Chinese demand surprises positively.

Taking all of the above into account, I thought the higher Fortescue share price would be a good time to offload shares.

If the iron ore price and Fortescue share price were to sink in the short term, I may see it as an opportunistic turnaround idea, but it’s not at the top of my watchlist.

Valuation

Based on the forecasts from Commsec, the Fortescue share price is valued at 14 times FY26’s estimated earnings, with a possible grossed-up dividend yield of 6.5%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

The post I was a huge fan of Fortescue shares, then this happened… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Woodside vs Fortescue shares: One I’d buy and one I’d sell
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2030 for Fortescue shares
• ASX 200 mining shares rip as lithium makes a comeback
• ASX mining shares: Do Rio Tinto or Fortescue shares offer a bigger dividend yield today?
• Macquarie names price target on BHP shares and 4 other ASX 200 miners

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Blackwattle portfolio managers, Tim Riordan and Michael Teran, reckon Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) is the lithium star of the ASX.

In their latest bulletin, Riordan and Teran said the market’s largest pure-play lithium share has “material upside” ahead.

Let’s hear more from them.

ASX lithium shares on a roll lately

ASX lithium shares have been outperforming due to rising commodity prices.

Several ASX lithium shares have set new 52-week highs, including Pilbara Minerals, which soared to $4.26 per share this week.

Riordan and Teran said Pilbara Minerals was among the best performers within their Mid-Cap Quality Fund last month.

The Pilbara Minerals share price ripped 31% in October alone.

The managers said:

PLS rallied 31% in October, as PLS delivered an exceptional quarterly production and lithium prices rallied ~18% in October, as the supply / demand dynamic becomes more balanced.

PLS is the 100% owner-operator of relatively low-cost, long-life spodumene mines. PLS also has a strong net cash balance sheet, which provides flexibility and a competitive advantage to indebted peers.

Lithium commodity prices have lifted significantly over the past month.

The Spodumene Concentrate Index (CIF China) Price rose 2.85% overnight to US$1,117 per tonne — up by more than 30% in a month.

While lithium prices have been in a multi-year bear market, prices appear to have bottomed out in recent months; supply is now
constrained by uneconomical prices but at the same time demand continues to grow healthily.

Lithium prices will continue to be volatile but if demand remains strong, we expect further recovery in lithium prices over 2026.

We continue to see material upside for PLS as an ‘improving quality’ business and view PLS as the highest quality, lithium miner on the ASX.

The managers said the company’s September quarter production report was outstanding.

What did Pilbara Minerals report?

Pilbara Minerals reported a 2% increase in spodumene production and a 20% increase in realised pricing.

This led to a 30% spike in revenue to $251 million.

The lithium miner also reduced its unit operating cost by 13%, enhancing cash margins.

Riordan and Teran said:

PLS is finally seeing the benefits from the P1000 expansion, and cements PLS’s position as the best-in-class lithium spodumene operator.

PLS is extremely well placed to benefit from any further recovery in lithium prices, with strong operations and significant production growth optionality, allowing for continued shareholder value creation through the cycle.

ASX lithium shares are benefiting from rising lithium prices, driven by strong demand for the metal to power batteries and support new infrastructure, as well as new government support for the electric vehicle industry in China.

Pilbara Minerals share price snapshot

The Pilbara Minerals share price is up 91.32% in the year to date compared to a 4.82% lift for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The ASX lithium share closed trading at $4.19 on Thursday, up 5.28%.

The post Which ASX lithium share is the ‘highest quality lithium miner on the ASX’? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• ASX lithium shares outperform as ASX 200 tumbles to four-month low

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Three years ago, OpenAI’s ChatGPT hadn’t even launched. Today, it is the leading software service in the multibillion-dollar generative artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) also plays a massive role in that arena. But with its shares up by more than 1,000% over the last three years, investors have to wonder how much growth potential is left for the chipmaker. Could it still be a compelling long-term buy?

Nvidia’s stock is surprisingly reasonable

With a market cap of $4.63 trillion, Nvidia is the largest company in the world. And investors could be forgiven for assuming it’s trading at sky-high multiples that are detached from its fundamentals.

But that isn’t the case. With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just 28, Nvidia stock has a surprisingly reasonable valuation compared to the Nasdaq-100‘s average of 26, particularly when considering its explosive top- and bottom-line growth rates.

In the second quarter, its revenue soared 56% year over year to $46.7 billion, driven by strong sales in its data center segment, where the company designs and sells the cutting-edge AI chips most commonly used to train and power large language models (LLMs). Despite selling physical products, it boasts a software-esque gross margin of 72.2%, which shows that its chips continue to be well differentiated from the competition because of factors like CUDA, the proprietary software platform that helps developers program its chips for specific tasks.

Investors can compare this to the way Apple synergizes its iOS with its iPhones to make them work better together, and tries to create a walled garden of services and apps that makes it harder for users to leave the ecosystem for alternative hardware, even if rival devices have comparable raw technical stats.

Nvidia’s economic moat gives it immense pricing power, which flows straight to its bottom line. Second-quarter earnings per share jumped 61% year over year to $1.08, and analysts expect more growth in the future.

What could go wrong? 

Nvidia’s CUDA platform and its cutting-edge chip design have combined to secure it a dominant position in the market for generative AI hardware. And its customers continue to spend eye-popping sums on its wares. According to The New York Times, big tech’s data center buildout is actually accelerating, with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon spending a combined $112 billion on capital expenditures over the last three months alone. Much of that cash went to Nvidia’s high-priced AI chips for data centers.

On the surface, it looks like everything is great. Nvidia has a strong economic moat, its customers remain willing to buy its products, and its valuation remains incredibly low compared to its earnings growth. What could go wrong?

The short answer is the technology itself. Right now, generative AI doesn’t seem to be commercially viable on a large scale because of challenges with LLM accuracy and the immense costs needed to run and train the algorithms. (Nvidia’s high prices play a role in inflating costs throughout the industry.)

The losses are getting hard to ignore. For example, ChatGPT creator OpenAI expects to lose $9 billion this year on $13 billion in revenue, a burn rate of around 70% of sales. Losses are expected to increase as it scales up its operations.

It is normal for growth companies (and by extension, industries) to generate losses when they are in their early expansion phases, but the AI buildout seems to be based on some core assumptions that may not materialize. There is actually no guarantee that today’s generative AI systems will evolve into more useful forms like artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is a currently theoretical technology that would be able to solve problems and learn without human input.

Many analysts are already arguing that LLMs’ development may be reaching a point of diminishing returns. And if the technology doesn’t become dramatically more useful, Nvidia’s customers may begin to rethink the vast amount of resources they are committing to their infrastructure budgets.

What do the next three years have in store?

With its relatively low valuation and strong customer demand, Nvidia stock looks unlikely to crash anytime soon. But it’s also hard to get excited about it as an investment now, considering the extreme hype and lack of profitability on the consumer side of the AI industry.

In light of all that, Nvidia stock looks to me like a hold for now. And investors who already own shares should consider taking some profits.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Where will Nvidia stock be in 3 years? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

One of the biggest advantages Australian investors have today is the ability to build a globally diversified portfolio using just a few exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Instead of researching dozens of individual stocks or trying to predict which region will outperform next, you can buy broad, low-cost funds that give you instant exposure to thousands of businesses around the world.

If you’re aiming to grow long-term wealth beyond the ASX, the three simple ETFs listed below, each offering a different type of global exposure, could form the backbone of a high-quality portfolio.

Vanguard All-World ex-US Shares ETF (ASX: VEU)

To build genuine global diversification, it makes sense to start with an ETF that captures markets outside the United States, and the Vanguard All-World ex-US Shares ETF is one of the most comprehensive funds available. It holds thousands of stocks across Europe, Asia, Canada, Latin America, and emerging markets, giving investors exposure to a broad range of economies and industries.

This ASX ETF’s top holdings include Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), Toyota Motor Corporation (TYO: 7203), HSBC (NYSE: HSBC), Tencent Holdings (SEHK: 700), and Astra Zeneca (LSE: AZN). These companies offer exposure to global consumer goods, industrials, finance, Asian technology, and healthcare.

By including this fund, investors gain access to regions that often move independently of US and Australian markets, helping smooth long-term returns.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)

For exposure to the world’s most powerful companies, the iShares S&P 500 ETF is one of the strongest options on the ASX. It tracks the S&P 500 index, giving investors a slice of America’s top businesses.

The portfolio includes giants such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and Walmart (NYSE: WMT). These companies lead the world in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and consumer staples.

By owning this ASX ETF, investors gain exposure to growth engines that simply don’t exist on the ASX at the same scale.

BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF (ASX: QLTY)

Finally, for investors who want to tilt their global portfolio toward quality, the BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF is worth a look.

It adds exposure to 150 elite stocks with strong balance sheets, high returns on capital, and durable competitive advantages.

Its holdings include Visa (NYSE: V), ResMed (ASX: RMD), LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE). These companies have long track records of consistent earnings, strong pricing power, and leadership positions in their respective markets.

This fund was tipped by analysts at Betashares as one to consider buying.

The post The best ASX ETFs to buy for global investing in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 ASX ETFs that could be perfect for beginner investors

HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adobe, Alphabet, Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Lam Research, Microsoft, Nvidia, ResMed, Tencent, Visa, Walmart, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Alibaba Group, AstraZeneca Plc, HSBC Holdings, and Johnson & Johnson and has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft, long January 2028 $330 calls on Adobe, short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft, and short January 2028 $340 calls on Adobe. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Adobe, Alphabet, Amazon, Lam Research, Microsoft, Nvidia, Visa, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Block, HMC Capital, Netwealth Group, and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HMC Capital and Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If I suddenly had $20,000 that needed to be invested before the weekend, I wouldn’t overthink it. In markets like this, the smartest approach is to focus on high-quality ASX shares with strong competitive advantages, recurring revenue, and long runways ahead of them.

Three names that immediately spring to mind are listed below. Here’s why they could be top picks for these funds:

Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360)

If I wanted exposure to a global technology business with explosive growth potential, Life360 would be close to the top of the list. The company already has more than 90 million monthly active users worldwide and continues to grow rapidly as families adopt its location-sharing, safety, and emergency features.

What makes Life360 compelling is its subscription-based model, which has turned the business into a recurring revenue machine. Average revenue per paying subscriber keeps rising, churn is falling, and its bundled product strategy is strengthening customer loyalty.

Life360’s scale also gives it a significant data advantage, which is something competitors can’t easily replicate. As the company pushes deeper into premium features, new markets, and integrations with connected devices, it is not hard to imagine much larger revenue potential over time.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $52.50 price target on its shares.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

If I had to deploy part of my $20,000 into a blue-chip compounder, REA Group would be an easy choice. As the leading digital property platform in Australia, it benefits from extraordinary pricing power, strong network effects, and a dominant competitive position.

Even during slower patches of the housing cycle, REA is able to deliver impressive revenue and earnings growth thanks to depth products, improved listings quality, and premium advertising options. And when the real estate market strengthens, as it is expected to when interest rates fall, REA’s earnings tend to accelerate.

Beyond Australia, REA also holds strategic overseas investments, including in India, where digitisation of the property market is still in early innings. Overall, for a mix of stability, growth, and structural tailwinds, REA could be one of the strongest long-term holdings on the ASX.

Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating and $290.00 price target on its shares.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

To round out the portfolio, I would add logistics software provider WiseTech Global. Its flagship product, CargoWise, is used by the world’s largest freight forwarders and logistics companies to manage global supply chains.

The beauty of WiseTech’s business is its powerful combination of mission-critical software, long customer contracts, and exceptionally high switching costs. Once a logistics provider adopts CargoWise, replacing it is both expensive and operationally risky, which gives WiseTech enormous pricing leverage and predictability.

And while it has been having issues this year with management conduct and product delays, its long-term outlook remains as positive as ever.

Morgans remains very bullish. It has a buy rating and $127.60 price target on its shares.

The post What I’d buy if I had to invest $20,000 in ASX 200 shares before the weekend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360, REA Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360 and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) share price is $64.78, up 3% while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 1.16%.

Wisetech shares hit a 52-week low of $61.49 this week.

Last month, the market’s biggest ASX tech share lost almost a quarter of its market cap.

This followed news of an investigation by the Australian Federal Police and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

The AFP and ASIC are looking into share trades by founder Richard White during a blackout window.

Blackwattle portfolio managers, Tim Riordan and Michael Teran, said:

While this is a distraction, we believe the refreshed board (3 new independent directors) and new management team (new CEO and CFO) is a step in the right direction towards improving governance and reducing key person risk.

In their latest bulletin, Riordan and Teran described the sell-off as “overdone”.

They noted that the Wisetech share price had lost more than 40% since the company released its FY25 results in August.

Looking ahead, though, the analysts think the outlook for the business is bright, commenting:

We remain confident that the FY27 and beyond outlook remains robust, and the selloff in the share price is a highly attractive opportunity, with WTC trading below 20x EV/EBITDA for FY27, well below its historical multiple of ~45x EV/EBITDA.

Riordan and Teran have confidence in the company’s products and its potential for growth.

They said Wisetech’s CargoWise software product suite allowed logistics services providers to maximise their productivity.

WTC has contracted 11 of the Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders to their products, providing these freight forwarders with a competitive advantage through productivity gains. WTC is a global leader in logistics services software.

We view WTC as an ‘Enduring Quality’ business, one of the highest quality companies on the ASX, continuing their multi-decade customer and product growth journey.

This significant long-term, compounding growth profile and highly attractive Risk/Reward makes the current share price selloff a significant investment opportunity.

Riordan and Teran are not alone in their backing of the ASX tech share.

Jed Richards from Shaw and Partners said Wisetech had been “oversold”, with today’s share price “presenting a strong entry point”.

On The Bull this week, Richards said he had a buy rating on Wisetech shares, commenting:

While management issues and investigations involving the Australian Federal Police and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission have contributed to a plunging share price, the company’s world class logistics software and proven global growth trajectory remain intact.

Long term fundamentals and market leadership support a compelling buying opportunity for patient investors.

The post Wisetech share price a ‘highly attractive opportunity’ after sell-off: fundie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What I’d buy if I had to invest $20,000 in ASX 200 shares before the weekend
• Analysts name 3 ASX 200 titans to buy today
• Alert! These 3 ASX 200 tech shares could soar 184%!
• Down 56%! Why now is a strong entry point for WiseTech shares
• Brokers say buy: 3 ASX 200 shares at 52-week lows today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Mayfield Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYG) has quietly become one of the standout performers on the ASX over the past 12 months. Hardly a household name, the engineering services group has seen its share price climb by more than 165% in the past 12 months as investors continue to warm to businesses tied to Australia’s accelerating energy and infrastructure build-out.

And the momentum has kept building. In a recent interview, fund manager Wilson Asset Management named Mayfield as one of the small caps they believe have meaningful upside ahead.

For a company that has spent most of its listed life under the radar, the spotlight is turning quickly.

A quiet achiever riding a generational investment wave

Mayfield specialises in critical electrical infrastructure, including switchgear, protection systems, turnkey installations, and long-duration engineering support across utilities, defence, industrial operations, and major renewables.

It’s not a flashy business, but it is deeply tied to sectors that deploy serious capital.

Australia’s electricity grid is entering a period of significant investment as the nation upgrades transmission lines, builds renewable energy generation, electrifies industry, and prepares for more data centres. Defence spending is also rising, with higher demand for secure energy systems and engineered electrical solutions.

These trends sit squarely in Mayfield’s sweet spot. Over the past two years, the company has expanded its order book, improved operational execution and steadily lifted margins — all while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Backing the next leg of growth

Fund manager interest centres on a simple premise: Mayfield is positioned in front of structural, not cyclical, demand.

Wilson sees the company benefiting from a pipeline of grid upgrades, substation modernisation, renewable integration, and essential electrical infrastructure across defence and industrial customers. From the fund manager’s perspective, the market may not yet be fully pricing in the longevity of Mayfield’s growth runway.

That combination of contract visibility, operating leverage, and exposure to decades-long national investment themes is why Wilson Asset Management believes Mayfield could still have meaningful upside ahead.

Brokers are starting to agree

Bell Potter recently initiated coverage on the company with a buy recommendation, citing similar drivers: a growing pipeline, expanding margins, and a business model well-positioned to scale.

The broker highlighted that Mayfield’s operational improvements and tendering success could help the company mature into a national leader in several of its categories.

When both a well-known small-cap fundie and a major broker arrive at the same conclusion, it tends to put a small cap like Mayfield firmly on the market’s radar.

What could sustain momentum from here?

Even after a 165% rally, the investment thesis focuses less on what Mayfield has already done and more on where it might go from here.

Areas to watch include:

• Grid and transmission upgrades, already backed by multi-billion-dollar national commitments
• Data centre expansions, requiring sophisticated electrical protection and switching infrastructure
• Defence capability modernisation, especially around secure, high-reliability power systems
• Industrial electrification, as manufacturing facilities evolve for energy-intensive technology

Foolish Takeaway

Mayfield has moved from a quiet microcap to one of the more noticeable performers on the ASX, supported by structural tailwinds in energy, infrastructure, and defence spending. 

Whether the share price continues rising — or at what pace — is unknowable. What can be observed is the powerful compounding effect that can occur when a small business aligns itself with the right multi-year demand cycle.

For investors, Mayfield’s recent run is a reminder of what can happen when a well-run microcap grows from a relatively small base. 

The post ASX small cap doubles and this fundie says it can double again appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bell Potter just initiated coverage with a buy recommendation on this ASX industrials stock

Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Mayfield Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a busy month for brokers, with a flurry of ASX 200 shares releasing results and trading updates.

Three that went down well with analysts at Morgans are listed below. Here’s why the broker has upgraded them:

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX)

Morgans was pleased with James Hardie’s update and particularly its outlook. It notes that the building materials company has provided an outlook that was more positive than expected.

In light of this and its undemanding valuation, the broker has upgraded the ASX 200 share to a buy rating with a $35.50 price target. It said:

Whilst the headline 2QFY26 result was largely released in early Oct-25, the details and outlook were incrementally more positive than previously anticipated. Upgraded guidance reflects a c.6% organic decline (vs pcp), as a challenging environment sees volume declines exceed price increases. However, this is better than feared and may prove to be a bottoming in the cycle as demand stabilises.

JHX is trading on c.17.1x FY26F as the business navigates its acquisition missteps, earnings downgrades and a challenging consumer environment in North America (NA). However, at EPS of c.U$1.04/sh in FY26 we see upside from both earnings and an undemanding PER (ave PER. 20x). It is on this basis we upgrade to a BUY recommendation and $35.50/sh target price.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF)

Another ASX 200 share that has been given the thumbs up by Morgans is Nufarm. Although its performance in FY 2025 was weak, it was better than feared.

And with management expecting a strong year in FY 2026 and the deleveraging of its balance sheet, the broker thinks now is a good time to invest. It has upgraded its shares to a buy rating with a $3.20 price target. It said:

While NUF’s FY25 result was weak, it was slightly above guidance. A solid Crop Protection result was overshadowed by a poor Seed Technologies performance. Gearing was far too high at 2.7x, however it was better than feared Outlook comments were upbeat. In FY26, material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage ratios is expected. We have upgraded our forecasts. Now that there is certainty on Seed Technologies future, industry operating conditions have improved and there is a clear pathway to deleveraging the balance sheet, we upgrade NUF to a Buy recommendation and A$3.20 price target.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

Finally, this enterprise software provider’s shares were sold off this week despite delivering a result that was largely in line with expectations.

The broker thinks this has created an opportunity for investors and has upgraded the ASX 200 share to an accumulate rating with a $34.50 price target. It said:

TNE’s FY25 result was largely in line with our expectations with the group delivering, PBT growth of +19% to $181.5m ahead of its 13-17% guidance range, and in line with consensus. The negative share price reaction appears to have been driven by softer than expected ARR/NRR print, which saw a 2% miss to ARR growth expectations vs consensus, despite this, the group continues to deliver, with ARR of $554.6m (+18% YoY), which along with its NRR growth of 115% continues to see TNE Ontrack to achieve its long-term ARR growth aspirations.

We modestly pare our EPS forecasts by 1-3% in FY26-28F. and move to an ACCUMULATE rating, with our target price $34.50 now reflecting a TSR of +19% following TNE’s post result share price movement.

The post Morgans just upgraded these ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are searching for big potential returns for your portfolio, then HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) shares could be worth considering.

That’s because the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes that this ASX 200 stock could be heading materially higher from current levels.

What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 stock?

Macquarie notes that the investment company has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026. It said:

FY26 pre-tax OEPS guidance reaffirmed of at least 40cps (MRE: 33cps; VA: 38cps). Conservatively, we exclude the 8.5cps Neoen arranging fee.

The broker also highlights that there are some key concerns, which have been weighing on its share price, that should be addressed in the next 6 to 12 months. It adds:

Key concerns to be addressed over the next 6-12 months, according to HMC. This is needed to restore market confidence. Key items include: 1) resolution of Healthscope (incl any rent-reset); 2) advancing the selldown of the Australian data-centre platform and US operational assets; and 3) third-party capital partnering to sell-down HMC’s balance sheet exposure across energy transition.

But the main reason to be positive is its valuation. The broker points out that the ASX 200 stock is trading at a discount to its net tangible assets (NTA) and believes that little value is being placed on its funds management platform. Macquarie explains:

Trading 8% below NTA of $3.24ps with limited value ascribed to the funds management platform. We believe this is overly negative in the context of our 10% EPS CAGR forecast (which is conservative based on HMC’s AUM targets, although some conservatism is currently warranted). We estimate +150% valuation upside if HMC can re-rate to comps trading on 20x active EBITDA, and +64% on our current valuation (10x).

Big potential returns

As mentioned above, Macquarie believes this ASX 200 stock could rise over 150% if it can re-rate to comparable multiples.

However, for now, the broker has reaffirmed its outperform rating and $4.90 price target on HMC Capital’s shares.

Based on its current share price of $3.18, this implies potential upside of 54% for investors over the next 12 months.

It also expects dividend yields of approximately 4% for FY 2026 through to FY 2028.

Commenting on its outperform recommendation, Macquarie said:

Outperform, $4.90 TP. Line of sight on HMC’s $50bn 3-5 year AUM target has turned opaque over the past year given numerous challenges. However, this is more than captured in the share price with the stock trading on 10x FY26E P/E (LTA 23x). Execution on key concerns over the next 6-12 months is key.

Catalysts: Potential removal from S&P/ASX 200; Neoen sell-down targeted for 2H26; Healthscope resolution; sell-down to third-party capital at DGT; evidence of AUM growth towards HMC’s $50bn 3-5 year target.

The post Macquarie says this ASX 200 stock can rise 150% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended HMC Capital and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HMC Capital. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.