3 ASX 200 shares tipped to tumble 10% (or more) in the next 12 months

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has been subdued over the past week as ongoing tension in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on Australian shares.

At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, the index has climbed 0.7% higher, but it is still down 0.6% over the past week.

While many ASX 200 shares are expected to climb higher over the next year as confidence returns, analysts tip some to take a u-turn over the next 12 months.

Here are three of them.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA is Australia’s largest energy infrastructure company, owning and operating an extensive portfolio of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets.

The company is also a major owner and operator of Australia’s gas distribution network, including pipelines, gas-fired power stations, and storage facilities. It currently transports more than half the natural gas used in Australia. 

Since listing on the ASX in 2000, APA Group has substantially grown its energy assets. In more recent times, it has added solar farms to its portfolio. 

The group’s shares have soared higher this year off the back of business expansion and some impressive half-year FY26 results.

At the time of writing, the shares are 0.4% higher and trading for $9.98 a piece. The latest share price movement means the shares are now 10% higher for the year-to-date and 21% higher over the year.

But it looks like analysts are now concerned that the ASX 200 company’s shares are now at or above fair value. Market Index data shows most brokers rate the shares as a hold (three out of six) and another two rate the stock as a sell. The average target price is $8.89, which implies 11% downside over the next 12 months.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA shares have flown higher in 2026, despite being considered overpriced for some time now.

Analysts consensus is that the ASX 200 bank’s shares price is overvalued relative to its peers, and that its bumper price tag isn’t supported by its business fundamentals. 

CBA’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, at the time of writing, is 28.69, which is much higher than other Australian banks. 

At the time of writing, CBA shares are trading 0.5% higher at $181.13 a piece. This morning’s uptick means the shares are now 12% higher for the year-to-date. They’re also now 8% higher over the past 12 months.

But broker consensus is still for a strong sell rating, and an average 28% downside ahead to $129.82. Some analysts think the bank’s shares could drop as low as $90 over the next 12 months.

Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC)

Westpac is another major big four Australian bank which has seen its share price exceed fair value. 

In a trading update last week, Westpac said that the supply shock from disruption to the energy market is expected to cause a hike in inflation and interest rates.

The bank said that a slower economic environment will be challenging for some of its customers. Following the update and poor outlook expectations, some brokers have revised their stance on the stock to a sell rating.

At the time of writing, Westpac shares are flat at $40 a piece. This morning’s increase means the shares are now 3% higher over the year-to-date and 28% higher than a year ago.

Brokers rate the ASX 200 bank shares as a strong sell, with an average $35.40 target price. At the time of writing that implies 12% downside ahead. 

The post 3 ASX 200 shares tipped to tumble 10% (or more) in the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.