Should you buy BHP shares ahead of the miner’s production update?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are edging lower today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $55.69. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $55.48 apiece, down 0.4%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

Taking a step back, BHP shares have gained 52.2% over 12 months, racing ahead of the 14.3% one-year gains delivered by the benchmark index.

Atop those capital gains, BHP stock also trades on a 3.5% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

And the Aussie mining giant will be in sharp focus tomorrow, following the scheduled release of its March quarter (Q3 FY 2026) production results.

What might investors expect from the ASX 200 miner’s March update?

The two core commodities that could materially move BHP shares tomorrow are copper and iron ore.

At its half-year results (H1 FY 2026), BHP reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division of US$8.0 billon. That was up 59% year-on-year, and it marked the first time the copper produced more than half (51% in this case) of BHP’s underlying earnings.

Underlying half year EBITDA from its iron ore division came in at US$7.5 billion, up 4% from H1 FY 2025.

And with copper prices up 42% over the past 12 months, currently at US$13,275 per tonne, the red metal is likely to gain be a big earnings contributor.

Commenting on expectations for BHP’s results, eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said:

So far, BHP is tracking well on production, with iron ore guidance for FY26 holding at around 292 million tonnes. Meanwhile, copper is expected to land in the top half of its 1.9 to 2.0 million tonne range, thanks to strong performances at Escondida and Antamina.

On the copper front, Gilbert noted:

The recent decision to extend the mine life at Escondida out to FY31, and the push into the Vicuna joint venture with Lundin Mining in Argentina, show just how serious BHP is about building a pipeline that could deliver two million tonnes of attributable copper a year by the 2030s.

As for iron ore, he added:

Iron ore remains the cash engine, with prices held up at around US$85 a tonne in the first half. While Chinese steel demand has moderated, India is increasingly picking up the slack as a source of structural growth. Any sign of recovery from China will matter for BHP’s full-year earnings picture.

And Gilbert noted that BHP shares have been catching increased investor interest of late. He said:

For investors, they’ll be looking to see if this week’s update shows whether BHP’s copper pivot is on track, whether iron ore is holding up, and if it’s on course to meet its full-year guidance. Local retail investors are clearly backing the story, with BHP appearing on eToro’s Q1 ‘top risers’ list.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Should you buy BHP shares today?

Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 mining stock (courtesy of The Bull).

“BHP is one of the world’s largest diversified miners, with high quality assets in iron ore, copper and energy minerals,” he said. “The company generates strong cash flows and dividends, benefiting from its scale and operational efficiency.”

But Athanasiou isn’t ready to hit the buy button just yet, issuing a hold recommendation on BHP shares.

He concluded:

However, BHP’s performance is closely tied to volatile commodity cycles, particularly iron ore prices and global demand, which can cap near term valuation expansion.

While long-term fundamentals in key metals remain robust, with electrification and decarbonisation trends supporting copper demand, the stock is fairly priced and may trade sideways until clearer commodity drivers emerge.

The post Should you buy BHP shares ahead of the miner’s production update? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.