Down 16% year to date, Bell Potter thinks now is the time to buy low on this ASX 200 stock

ASX 200 stock Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) has struggled thus far in 2026. 

The global gaming content creation company has fallen more than 16% since the start of the year. 

However it now appears that this ASX 200 company is a value play. 

Over the last couple of weeks it has drawn several positive outlooks from brokers and experts.

Yesterday, the team at Bell Potter were the latest to update their outlook. 

Here’s what the broker had to say. 

Market share in tact 

In the recent report from Bell Potter, the broker highlighted that Aristocrat Leisure games remained highly compelling to players in the North American market in March 2026. 

According to the broker, the company’s titles comprised 29% (31% Dec-25 qtr) of the top New Premium Leased & WAP (PLW) game rankings behind rival Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) at 47%. 

ALL has recently launched three new franchises into PLW market, some of which are Core market favourites have started off with strong performance in March 2026. In the top New Core game rankings, ALL has declined to 39.6% share (50.2% Dec-25), followed by LNW with 26.5% share (20% Dec-25), the second highest supplier in the rankings. 

Performance from ALL’s Phoenix Link continues to standout, with the title performing close to 2.4x floor average. Overall, these findings suggest positive near-term growth in ALL’s PLW and Core markets.

Positive industry conditions for this ASX 200 stock

Bell Potter also noted that overall, commentary from listed US casino operators remains in line with ALL’s February 2026 comments that “capital budgets appear supportive”. 

Operators are broadly positive about the US gambler and downplaying the impact of higher fuel costs on consumers. 

For the states (mature) that have reported, GGR grew 0.6% YoY in March 2026, a moderation in growth from prior periods but not alarming.

Price target reduced

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has slightly reduced its earnings per share forecast. 

It has lowered EPS by -3%/-4%/-4% over FY26/27/28e. 

Additionally, it has reduced its share price target to $61.00 (previously $70.00). 

However, from yesterday’s closing price of $47.88, this indicates an upside potential of approximately 28%. 

The broker has also retained its buy recommendation on this ASX 200 stock. 

We expect ALL’s leading R&D investment will drive market share gains. Top 2 game performance observed in both the core sales and premium gaming ops markets leaves us confident that ALL can grow the install base >4.0k per year and grow global shipments. Further, with leverage standing at 0.2x, ALL has substantial M&A firepower to boost growth inorganically.

The post Down 16% year to date, Bell Potter thinks now is the time to buy low on this ASX 200 stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Light & Wonder Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.