The latest jobs figures are out, and the result wasn’t quite what economists had expected.
While unemployment has climbed again, the economy is still adding jobs, giving the RBA plenty to consider ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.
The central bank has already lifted rates three times this year, with another increase widely expected on Tuesday.
So, could today’s jobs data give the RBA a reason to hold off?
More jobs, but unemployment keeps climbing
According to the ABS release, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, up from 4.5% in July.
The number of unemployed Australians increased by 28,200 to approximately 722,900, despite the economy adding 39,500 jobs during the month.
The increase in employment came entirely from part-time work, which jumped by 45,800 positions. Full-time employment fell by 6,300.
The participation rate also climbed from 66.9% to 67.1%, meaning more Australians were either working or actively looking for a job.
There were some encouraging signs, though, with total hours worked increasing 0.7% and the underemployment rate easing slightly to 6.2%.
Will the RBA change its mind?
With the cash rate currently at 4.35%, another 25-basis-point increase on Tuesday would take it to 4.60%.
Speaking at a CEDA event earlier this week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said unemployment between 4.5% and 5% would probably help ease inflation pressures.
However, Bullock wasn’t giving anything away about next week’s decision.
She also pointed to elevated oil prices, excess demand and inflation expectations as continuing concerns for the central bank.
At the same time, financial markets were pricing in a 95% chance of another rate hike ahead of today’s employment report.
The RBA has also acknowledged that previous interest rate increases are yet to have their full effect on the economy. It said it expects unemployment to continue rising gradually.
What happens next?
The RBA will have to make Tuesday’s decision without another inflation reading.
August’s consumer price index isn’t due until Wednesday, 30 September, a day after the board meets. The next jobs report won’t arrive until 15 October.
In its August forecasts, the RBA expected unemployment to reach 4.6% by June 2027 and 4.8% by mid 2028.
It also expects inflation to return to the midpoint of its target range in early 2028.
With unemployment climbing, I think the RBA has more reason to leave rates at 4.35%. However, another increase wouldn’t surprise me given its ongoing concerns about inflation.
We’ll find out at 2.30pm AEST on Tuesday, 29 September.
The post Unemployment hits 4.6%. Could the RBA hold off on another rate hike? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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