Author: openjargon

Any concern about a more cautious tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia is being shrugged off by the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) in afternoon trading. However, the odd ASX All Ords share is failing to catch the rising tide today.

One hapless company missing out on enthusiasm is Lindsay Australia Ltd (ASX: LAU). Shares in the transport and logistics operator are down 9% as investors respond to a fresh update from the company.

At the time of writing, Lindsay shares are swapping hands at 87 cents apiece. The steep fall means Lindsay shares are now at their lowest price in nearly 14 months, as shown in the chart above.

Wet weather weighs down guidance

Lindsay Australia achieved record results in what was dubbed a ‘transformative year’ for the company. In FY23, underlying EBITDA rose 50.2% to $90.3 million on the back of a $34.9 million uplift in EBITDA from its transport segment.

A little more recently, on 26 February, the company shared its first-half results for FY24. Within this report, the company said it was ‘on track’ to achieve around 13% underlying EBITDA growth from the prior financial year, pointing toward the lower end of a $102 million to $108 million range.

Today, the ASX All Ords share is getting scorched after sharing an update to its prior guidance.

As the update outlines, Lindsay Australia expects underlying EBITDA to land between $88 million and $94 million for the full financial year. At the midpoint, the revised guidance represents a 10.8% reduction from the lower bound of the prior estimate.

Why the change? There are a few factors that have sent Lindsay off track.

Firstly, ‘significant and persistent’ rainfall put a dent in horticultural output in the second half. Secondly, Lindsay Australia has faced numerous disruptions to its rail operations, the worst of which involved a four-week stoppage in March that extended into April.

Lastly, the company has suffered impacts on its ‘operational efficiency and utilisation’ from freight flow disruptions.

The team at Lindsay Australia anticipated an improvement in conditions. However, a rebound in volumes has failed to materialise post-Easter.

Is there a bright side for the ASX All Ords share?

There still might be a positive takeaway from today’s update.

The issues impacting earnings estimates were described as ‘short-term challenges’. That’s music to the ears of a long-term investor, if true.

Moreover, the longer-term view was painted as a positive one. For example, high soil moisture could help boost horticultural volumes moving forward. Migration and population growth were also earmarked as drivers for the refrigerated logistics segment.

While prone to recency bias, it’s worth remembering this little ASX All Ords share is up 143% over the last five years.

The post Why this ASX All Ords share is dumping 9% on earnings outlook appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why Graincorp, Lindsay Australia, NAB, and Sims shares are sinking today
• 2 cheap ASX shares that offer at least 9% dividend yields

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lindsay Australia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lindsay Australia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are having a positive session on Tuesday.

In afternoon trade, the lithium developer’s shares are up over 1% to $1.25.

This means that the company’s shares are now up almost 15% over the last two weeks.

Should you follow suit and pick up the lithium stock right now? Let’s see what one leading analyst is saying.

Are Liontown shares worth buying?

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its team made a visit to the company’s Kathleen Valley Lithium Project last week and was pleased with what it saw. The broker commented:

The visit highlighted various strategies implemented to reduce commissioning, ramp-up and ongoing operational risks. These strategies cut across mining ramp-up, plant design and applying learnings from extensive feasibility works and other prominent lithium operations in Western Australia. First production is on schedule for mid-2024.

Bell Potter notes that the company is de-risking its ore supply and processing plant ramp-up. It explains:

The open pit should supply 3Mt ore by the end of 2025, substantially de-risking ore delivery to the processing plant ahead of underground mining ramp-up. Around 160kt ore has been stockpiled to date, with around 300kt of plant feed expected to be available by start-up in mid-2024. Open pit mining rates lift materially this September-October as the thick flat-lying North-West Flats orebody is reached.

In light of the above, the broker remains very positive on Liontown and its shares. The note reveals that its analysts have reaffirmed their speculative buy rating and $1.85 price target on them.

Based on the latest Liontown share price of $1.25, this implies potential upside of 48% for investors over the next 12 months.

Though, it is worth highlighting that its speculative rating means that this may be an investment that is only suitable for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

Why is the broker bullish?

Bell Potter thinks that the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project is a very attractive asset. It also notes that the company’s balance sheet is strong and expected to support Liontown through to positive cash flow. It concludes:

LTR’s 100% owned KV lithium project remains highly strategic in terms of its stage of development, long mine life and location. LTR has offtake contracts with top tier EV and battery OEMs (Ford, LG Energy Solution and Tesla). The project is on track for first production from mid-2024. Under our modelled assumptions which includes the draw-down of the $550m debt package and repayment of Ford debt, we expect that LTR is fully funded to free cash flow. LTR is an asset development company; our Speculative risk rating recognises this higher level of risk.

The post Are Liontown shares worth buying right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Why did Liontown Resources shares smash the market in April?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Why Liontown shares could rise 50%
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a good session on Tuesday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.8% to 7,745.7 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are climbing:

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

The AGL Energy share price is up 7% to $9.96. Investors have been buying this energy company’s shares after it upgraded its earnings guidance for FY 2024. According to the release, AGL now expects its underlying EBITDA to be between $2,120 million and $2,200 million. This compares to its previous guidance of $2,025 million and $2,175 million. This represents a sizeable 56% to 61.5% increase on FY 2023’s underlying EBITDA of $1,361 million. Management advised that the update to its guidance reflects the continued strong operational and financial performance of the business since the half year results.

HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC)

The HMC Capital share price is up 6% to $6.85. This appears to have been driven by the release of a presentation ahead of the diversified alternative asset manager’s appearance at the 2024 Macquarie Australia Conference. In addition, the company announced that the Hon. Julia Gillard AC has agreed to Chair HMC’s Energy Transition Fund. She said: “I am excited and honoured to be appointed Chair of HMC’s Energy Transition Fund. Its design and HMC’s investment management capabilities will position the Fund to be a genuine driver of Australia’s transition to zero net carbon by 2050.”

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price is up over 4% to $14.49. Investors have been buying ASX tech stocks today following another strong night for their US peers on Wall Street. In addition, the team at Citi has just reaffirmed its buy rating on the network solutions company’s shares with a $16.05 price target. This implies potential upside of approximately 11% for investors from current levels. The broker remains positive despite a softer than expected performance during the third quarter.

Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (ASX: PMT)

The Patriot Battery Metals share price is up almost 11% to 87.5 cents. This morning, this lithium developer announced the discovery of a new high-grade zone at the CV13 spodumene pegmatite at the Corvette project in Canada. The CV13 spodumene pegmatite is located approximately 3 km west-southwest of the CV5 spodumene pegmatite, which hosts a maiden mineral resource estimate of 109.2 Mt at 1.42% Li2O inferred.

The post Why AGL, HMC Capital, Megaport, and Patriot Battery Metals shares are racing higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• One ASX 200 stock that just upgraded earnings guidance (and one that downgraded)
• Down 24% since July, are AGL shares a cheap buy?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 4 ASX shares exposed to the ‘largest technological change ever seen’
• Here’s how I’d aim for a tonne of passive income from $20,000 in an ASX share portfolio

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX All Ords copper stocks are having a great run as the commodity price surges on the back of low supply and rising demand.

The copper price rose to a two-year high of US$4.70 per pound late last month.

As shown below, the red metal has been rising since early February and is now up 19% in the year to date.

ASX copper stocks rise on commodity price gains

The rising commodity price has given many ASX copper stocks a bump.

In the year to date:  

• Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS) shares are up 80%
• WA1 Resources Ltd (ASX: WA1) shares are up 43%
• Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) shares are up 33%
• FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX: FFM) shares are up 28%

Why is demand for copper rising?

Copper played a foundational role when the world first embraced electrification back in the 1880s.

The red metal is an excellent electricity conductor. Back then, it was used to make wires and pipes for water and sewage systems, to manufacture telephones, and to power expanding railway networks.

Today, the red metal is poised to once again play a key role in electrification mark II, or in other words, the green energy transition.

Electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar energy systems, and data centres all need copper.

Global copper supplies are currently constrained.

Trading Economics explains why:

Cobre Panama, the world’s largest open-pit copper mine was suspended, while power cuts in Zambia hit key mines.

The difficulty in securing supplies and lower margins for smelters in China resulted in a potential cutback of 10% in this year’s output.

Broker says buy this small-cap ASX copper stock

If you want to get in on the copper action, Tom Bleakley from BW Equities has a recommendation.

He’s got a buy rating on ASX All Ords copper stock, FireFly Metals.

Bleakley explains on The Bull:

FireFly is a copper explorer and developer. The company’s Green Bay Copper-Gold project is in Newfoundland, Canada. Exploration has revealed high grade copper mineralisation at depth.

The broker said copper demand would rise over the next decade and “FireFly offers good exposure to a rising copper price”.

Firefly Metals is a small-cap ASX copper stock with a market capitalisation of $365 million.

The Firefly Metals share price is 83 cents at the time of writing, up 2.48% on Tuesday.

The big miners expand their copper exposure

Major ASX 200 miners are also expanding their investment into the copper space.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) bought out ASX copper pure-play stock Oz Minerals last year for $9.6 billion.

And just last month, the ‘Big Australian’ made a play for Anglo American plc (LSE: AAL) via a non-binding, all-scrip offer worth 31.1 billion pounds (about A$60 billion).

As my colleague James reported at the time, BHP appeared motivated to buy Anglo American for its copper assets.

If the deal had gone ahead, BHP would have become the largest copper miner in the world, producing about 10% of global output.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), which began life as a copper miner in 1873, is also increasing its exposure to copper.

The post Buy this ASX All Ords stock for ‘good exposure to a rising copper price’ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why Graincorp, Lindsay Australia, NAB, and Sims shares are sinking today
• This ASX 200 real estate stock has been flying ahead of tomorrow’s key update. Should you buy?
• Are CBA shares a buy or a sell ahead of Thursday’s update?
• Hunting for passive income? Here’s everything you need to know about the boosted ANZ dividend
• Why Pilbara Minerals shares are a buy for this lithium short seller

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record another solid gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.7% to 7,734.4 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

The Graincorp share price is down a further 3.5% to $7.83. Investors have been selling this grain exporter’s shares this week after it downgraded its earnings guidance for FY 2024. GrainCorp now expects to report FY 2024 underlying EBITDA in the range of $250 million to $280 million. This is down from its previous guidance range of $270 million to $310 million. In addition, it expects underlying net profit after tax to be $60 million to $80 million. This is down from its previous guidance of $65 million to $95 million. A recent deterioration in trading conditions is to blame.

Lindsay Australia Ltd (ASX: LAU)

The Lindsay Australia share price is down almost 8% to 88 cents. This follows the release of a trading update from the logistics company this morning. Lindsay Australia advised that it expects underlying EBITDA to be between $88 million and $94 million in FY 2024. This is below expectations due to lower horticultural volumes because of wet weather, multiple rail disruptions, and disrupted freight flows and volumes impacting operational efficiency and utilisation.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

The National Australia Bank share price is down 2.5% to $33.79. This has been driven by the banking giant’s shares going ex-dividend this morning for its latest payout. Last week, the big four bank released its half-year results and declared a fully franked interim dividend of 84 cents per share. Eligible shareholders can now look forward to receiving this dividend in their bank accounts when it is paid in just under two months on 3 July.

Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM)

The Sims share price is down 5% to $11.20. Investors have been hitting the sell button today after the scrap metal company downgraded its earnings guidance for FY 2024. Management advised that ongoing market challenges have continued across the industry. This has seen its SA Recycling and ANZ Metal businesses face increased challenges compared to the first half. As a result, the company advised that its second-half underlying EBIT will be marginally lower than the first half. This compares to its previous guidance for underlying EBIT “to improve in H2 FY24 compared to HY1 FY24.”

The post Why Graincorp, Lindsay Australia, NAB, and Sims shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• One ASX 200 stock that just upgraded earnings guidance (and one that downgraded)
• Why is the NAB share price sinking today?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Why Block, Graincorp, Spark, and Tourism Holdings shares are sinking today
• What you need to do to secure the next NAB dividend

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lindsay Australia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lindsay Australia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) share price has risen almost 5% this week and around 8% this month, as we can see on the chart below. In this article, I’m going to look at whether the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock is a buy.

Goodman is a large owner and developer of industrial property in Australia and overseas. The business is now putting a lot of effort into growing its exposure to data centres. With Goodman expected to release its FY24 third quarter operational update tomorrow, is now a good time to think about the ASX 200 stock?

Strong update expected

The Australian reported on recent commentary from broker Citi, which suggested there is going to be improved earnings guidance when the update is released.

Citi analyst Howard Penny believes there could be good news on the data centre rollout and potential for an earnings upgrade from Goodman’s investor update.

Citi suggested there could be a positive market response to the Goodman share price if the guidance is hiked.

What progress has Goodman revealed about data centres?

When Goodman announced its FY24 first-half result, it said the data centre global power bank had expanded to 4GW across 12 major global cities.

The ASX 200 stock said its secured power increased to 2.1GW with another 1.9GW in the advanced stages of procurement. These new data centres will require large amounts of energy to power them.

Goodman explained it is gaining planning approvals and starting infrastructure works across the power bank to provide customers with certainty on project milestones.

It also said it’s continuing to work with customers on delivery and leasing models for powered shell and turn-key solutions, utilising Goodman’s planning, architectural and engineering capabilities, and strong balance sheet.

Is the Goodman share price a buy?

The Goodman share price has railed strongly, so it’s certainly not as good value as it was a few months ago.

But, numerous financial measures are moving in the right direction. In the HY24 result it upgraded its operating earnings per share (EPS) guidance to 11% growth, up from the previous guidance of 9% growth.

The ASX 200 stock said it’s executing on its high-quality development workbook with attractive project margins. At the latest disclosure, the business had work in progress (WIP) of $12.9 billion.

Goodman also said its investment property is “performing strongly with high levels of occupancy and income growth”. In the HY24 result, Goodman reported a portfolio occupancy rate of 98.4%, while the 12-month rolling like-for-like net property income growth was 5%, which I think is a solid growth rate.

If Goodman keeps delivering good underlying growth, it can continue to justify a higher Goodman share price. We’ll see how the market reacts tomorrow, but the long-term looks promising.

The post This ASX 200 real estate stock has been flying ahead of tomorrow’s key update. Should you buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why the ASX 200 is predicted to leap higher in 2024 despite higher interest rates
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Carnarvon Energy, Goodman, Nickel Industries, and Southern Cross Electrical are rising
• What can ASX 200 investors expect from the RBA interest rate call tomorrow?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s a big week for ASX bank shares this week. We’ve already had earnings reports from two of the big four banks thus far. And owners of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares will get a look at a quarterly update later this week.

Yesterday, we went through the latest results from Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC). These included a hike to the company’s interim dividend, as well as a new $1.5 billion share buyback program.

Today, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) released its own set of earnings for the six months to 31 March. The headline ended up being similar to that of Westpac, with ANZ revealing a decent hike to its interim dividend, as well as a new $2 billion share buyback.

And on Thursday, we’ll hear from CBA – the ASX’s largest bank stock by a country mile.

ASX 200 bank stock set to deliver quarterly update

Now CBA’s update on Thursday will be a quarterly update, not a full earnings report. That means we probably won’t get any new dividend or share buyback announcements, just an update on how CBA’s finances are looking as of 31 March.

CBA shares have had a pretty solid run over the past week or so. The bank is up more than 3% over the past five trading days, and today it’s back over $117 a share. Perhaps investors have taken note of a recent development out of CBA.

Today, CBA revealed that it has “been selected” by the Queensland Government to “provide whole of Government banking and payment services for a minimum term of five years”.

The bank will provide all banking and payment services to the entire Queensland Government at least until 2029, with two optional three-year term extensions on the table.

Last week, my Fool colleague James looked at some of the things that ASX broker Goldman Sachs is telling ASX investors to keep an eye on with this quarterly update. Those included the bank’s mortgage profitability, bad debts and cost controls. Goldman concluded by stating:

Overall we are of the view the key to offsetting these inflationary pressures will be the banks’ ability to deliver productivity improvements.

So should investors buy or sell CBA shares before this update gets publically released on Thursday?

CBA shares: Buy or sell?

Well, one ASX expert remains on the fence.

According to The Bull, Tom Bleakley, analyst at BW Equities, has just given CBA shares a ‘hold’ rating. Bleakley notes that while the CBA share price has risen substantially in recent months, the bank’s profits have been falling. Here’s what he said in full:

The share price of Australia’s biggest bank is off its highs above $120 in early March. But the price has risen from $96.87 on November 1 to trade at $114.195 on May 2.

Cash net profit after tax of $5.019 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2024 was down 3 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Yet the fully franked interim dividend of $2.15 a share was up 2 per cent. Investors can hold for a reliable and appealing dividend and potential capital growth.

Unfortunately for CBA bulls, Bleakley’s hold rating appears to be as good as it gets for the bank when it comes to broker recommendations.

Last month, we discussed how at least three other brokers all called ‘sell’ on CBA shares. Most of these brokers cited valuation concerns as the primary reason for their bearish outlook.

But let’s wait and see what CBA has to say on Thursday.

The post Are CBA shares a buy or a sell ahead of Thursday’s update? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• After hitting all-time highs in March, why did the CBA share price tumble 5% in April?
• Own CBA shares? Here’s what to look out for with the bank’s Q3 update
• Maximizing dividends: 3 of the best ASX shares for income investors right now?
• Forget CBA shares and buy these ASX 200 stocks in May
• Which asset class are self-managed superannuation funds abandoning in favour of shares?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.