Author: openjargon

At time of writing in morning trade on Friday, all of the big four S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stocks are in the red.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share are down 0.7% at $172.12; Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are down 0.9% at $38.77; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are down 0.3% at $36.04; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are down 0.5% at $40.14.

So, which ASX 200 bank stock is shaking off the wider selling pressure that sees the benchmark index down 0.3% at this same time?

If you said Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares, give yourself a virtual gold star. Judo shares are currently changing hands for $1.39 apiece, up 0.7%.

Here’s why the challenger bank is grabbing investor interest today.

ASX 200 bank stock reaffirms FY 2026 profit guidance

Judo Bank shares are outperforming in Friday morning trade following a year-to-date performance update.

The ASX 200 bank stock reported gross loans and advances of $13.8 billion as at 31 March, up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter. And total deposits increased to $11.5 billion.

The March quarter also saw an improvement in Judo Bank’s net interest margin (NIM), which increased by 0.12% from its first half average to 3.15%.

As for what’s ahead, the bank reaffirmed its full year FY 2026 profit before tax guidance to be in the range of $180 million to $190 million.

However, the ASX 200 bank stock noted that it now expects to see profits come in at the lower end of this range. That comes after Judo increased its collective provisions coverage to 0.94% of loans as of the end of the March quarter, up from 0.89% at the end of the December quarter.

What did Judo Bank management say?

“While our customer base remains in good financial health, we have prudently chosen to strengthen our forward looking collective provision in recognition of ongoing uncertainty for the outlook,” Judo CEO Chris Bayliss said.

Looking to what might impact the ASX 200 bank stock in the months ahead, Bayliss added:

Notwithstanding the provision increase, we are still on track to deliver FY26 profit before tax within our original guidance range, albeit towards the lower end.

This continues to represent significant operating leverage, underpinned by strong lending, favourable funding conditions and disciplined cost management, and demonstrates strong progress towards our at-scale target of low-to-mid teens ROE.

The post Guess which ASX 200 bank stock is pushing higher on Friday (hint, not CBA shares) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Judo Capital reaffirms FY26 profit guidance as lending growth continues
• Forget CBA shares — here are 2 ASX bank shares I’d rather own right now
• This is the only ASX bank stock I’d keep in my portfolio
• Why experts think this ASX bank share can rise 58% in a year!
• ASX bank stocks: Buy, sell, or hold?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) shares are back on the move on Friday after a new update landed before the market open.

The stock is up 4.2% to $3.69 at the time of writing, after reversing some of the weakness seen earlier this year.

Even with today’s lift, the shares remain down around 15% in 2026.

Here’s what is driving the move.

Ground broken at key European project

According to the release, Vulcan has officially broken ground at its Lionheart lithium chemicals facility in Frankfurt, Germany.

This marks the start of major construction at the site, which sits within one of Europe’s largest industrial and chemical hubs.

The ceremony included German state officials and industry representatives, pointing to continued government backing for domestic lithium supply.

Lionheart is central to Vulcan’s broader strategy. It is designed to convert lithium chloride into battery-grade lithium hydroxide, targeting supply into the European electric vehicle market.

A project built around scale and integration

The update also highlights the scale of the development.

The facility is expected to produce around 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per year once fully ramped. That is enough to support roughly 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

The project sits within a broader integrated system.

Upstream, lithium is extracted from geothermal brines using direct lithium extraction technology. Downstream, it is refined into battery-grade material at the central plant.

The process also generates renewable energy as a by-product. This is expected to support operations and feed into local energy markets.

Funding and timeline already in place

Vulcan said it has secured 2.2 billion euros in funding for Phase One of Lionheart.

The company is targeting a final investment decision (FID) in 2025, with production forming part of its first commercial phase in the Upper Rhine Valley.

This milestone follows earlier approvals tied to construction at the central processing facility.

With groundwork now underway, the project is moving out of planning and into execution.

Foolish takeaway

The move today follows a clear step forward on the project.

Breaking ground is a visible sign of progress for a project that has been in development for several years.

It also adds weight to the company’s position as a potential European lithium supplier, with supply chain security still a focus across the region.

The share price reaction suggests investors are watching how quickly Lionheart moves through construction and into production.

Early construction progress is likely to remain a key focus in the coming quarters.

From here, it’s about getting the build done on time and on budget.

The post This ASX lithium stock is bouncing back today. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Navigator Global, St Barbara, Vulcan Energy, and Zip shares are racing higher today
• This ASX lithium stock is rising after making a big announcement
• Why this ASX stock is slipping today even as it lands a German project win
• Could these ASX stocks double by the end of 2026?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Nuix Ltd (ASX: NXL) shares are ending the week with a bang.

This morning, the ASX tech stock has returned from a trading halt and has rocketed higher.

At the time of writing, the investigative analytics and intelligence software provider’s shares are up 22% to $1.63.

Why is this ASX tech stock rocketing?

Investors have been fighting to get hold of Nuix shares on Friday after the company won its court battle with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

The corporate regulator took legal action against Nuix, alleging that it was engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct by making announcements to the Australian share market or by failing to disclose particular information to the ASX in connection with its financial performance.

With respect to its FY 2021 first-half annual contract value (ACV), ASIC said:

(1) Nuix’s ACV was $161.9 million; (2) Nuix’s ACV was $17.1 million, or approximately 9.6 per cent, less than the ACV Nuix expected in order to achieve the Prospectus ACV Forecast; and (3) the primary reason Nuix missed its forecast for ACV at the end of 1HFY21 was that Subscription ACV at the end of 1HFY21 was $17.7 million less than the forecast figure for Subscription ACV.

ASIC alleges that the non-disclosure of the 1HFY21 ACV Result was conduct engaged in by Nuix that was misleading or deceptive because there existed a reasonable expectation of disclosure of the 1HFY21 ACV Result in circumstances where during the period 18 January to 25 February 2021: (1)    the Prospectus ACV Forecast caused, or contributed to, market expectations of: (i) year on year growth in ACV of approximately 20 per cent during FY21; (ii) an ACV at the end of 1HFY21 significantly higher than $162 million; (2) Nuix was aware of such market expectations; and (3)    Nuix was aware of the 1HFY21 ACV Result, which reflected year on year growth in ACV of 3 per cent (compared to the ACV of $157 million at the end of 1HFY20), and a decline in ACV since the end of FY20.

The good news for Nuix shareholders is that the Federal Court has sided with Nuix and has ordered ASIC to pay all legal costs. However, the regulator does have a period of time to consider whether it will appeal the decision.

Nuix response

The ASX tech stock’s chair, Robert Mactier, was pleased with the court outcome. He said:

We are pleased that the Federal Court has resolved the allegations concerning Nuix’s early 2021 market disclosure and that the cases against both Nuix and the then directors of the company have been dismissed. We are committed to driving shareholder value, supporting our people and customers and using our products and services as a force for good.

The post Guess which ASX tech stock is rocketing 22% on big news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Artrya, Cleanaway, DroneShield, and Nuix shares are pushing higher today
• ASX 200 tech shares rocket 13% as long-awaited sector rebound accelerates
• 6 ASX shares at 52-week lows: Buy, hold, or sell?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nuix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) gold stock St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) is pushing higher today.

St Barbara shares closed yesterday trading for 67.5 cents. In early morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for 67.7 cents apiece, up 0.3%.

For some context, the ASX 300 is down 0.2% at this same time, while the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is down a steeper 0.7%.

Here’s what catching investor interest.

ASX 300 gold stock moving forward in Canada

St Barbara shares look to be getting a boost today after the ASX 300 gold stock announced the approval of a Final Investment Decision (FID) to proceed with the Touquoy Restart.

Located in Canada, St Barbara’s Touquoy gold mine was placed into care and maintenance in October 2023.

The formal FID approval comes after the Nova Scotia Department of Environment and Climate Change (NSECC) earlier this month approved amendments to the Industrial Approval permit conditions to allow the mine’s restart.

The ASX 300 gold stock said that its subsidiaries have now signed contracts with two local companies (Alva Construction and MacGregor’s Industrial) to provide support services for the reopening process.

What did St Barbara management say?

Commenting on the FID, St Barbara managing director and CEO Andrew Strelein said, “The processing of stockpiled ore at Touquoy is a significant step forward for St Barbara in Nova Scotia.”

Strelein continued:

It demonstrates the province is open to investment in resources projects, will provide for nearly 200 new jobs within the province and add to the province’s growing GDP all while responsibly managing our shared environment.

Nova Scotia Minister of natural resources and renewables Kim Masland added, “I am pleased to see that the contracts being signed will employ Nova Scotians, especially in rural areas, and keep them working here, close to home.”

What’s been happening with the ASX 300 gold stock’s Touquoy mine?

St Barbara has been working to restart the project for some time now.

The ASX 300 gold stock allocated C$2.9 million (AU$3.0 million) to facilitate the refurbishment of the Touquoy processing facility in February.

The company expects operating cash flow from Touquoy to be C$118 million at US$4,000 per ounce over a 13-month period. It anticipates gold production of 38,000 ounces over the 13 months, coming from 3.0 million tonnes of stockpiles that grade at 0.4 grams of gold per tonne.

The ASX 300 gold stock expects to recommence ore processing at Touquoy by the end of calendar year 2026.

The miner is also active in Papua New Guinea, where it forecasts fourth quarter gold production in the range of 14,000 to 17,000 ounces from its joint venture New Simberi Gold Project.

The post Guess which ASX 300 gold stock is outperforming following ‘a significant step forward’ in Canada appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Navigator Global, St Barbara, Vulcan Energy, and Zip shares are racing higher today
• This ASX gold company has revealed a major boost to production over the next 4 years
• Why A2 Milk, Metallium, Northern Star, and St Barbara shares are sinking today
• Up 194% in a year, ASX 300 gold stock gets ‘big confidence boost’ from Canada
• This beaten-down ASX gold stock just cleared a major hurdle. So why are investors selling?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Growth investing often centres on finding businesses that can expand earnings over long periods.

That does not always mean chasing early-stage companies. Some of the strongest growth stories on the ASX today are already established, with proven models and clear pathways to further expansion.

Here are three ASX growth shares that continue to stand out.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

One company that continues to deliver strong growth is Pro Medicus.

This ASX growth share develops imaging software used by hospitals and healthcare providers. Its Visage platform is designed to handle large medical datasets with speed and efficiency.

The company’s recent performance highlights the strength of its model. It delivered revenue growth of 28.4% and profit growth of 29.7% during the first half of FY 2026, supported by new contract wins and expanding global adoption.

A key driver is its long-term contract structure, particularly in the United States. These agreements can run for several years and provide recurring, high-margin revenue.

With a growing sales pipeline and increasing adoption across different medical fields, Pro Medicus continues to build on its position in a specialised but expanding market.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Another ASX growth share worth looking at is Temple & Webster Group. It offers exposure to a different type of growth opportunity.

Temple & Webster operates an online-only furniture and homewares platform. It benefits from the gradual shift toward e-commerce in categories that have traditionally been dominated by physical retail.

The company’s model is asset-light, allowing it to scale its product range without the costs associated with maintaining a large store network.

Growth in this segment can be uneven, influenced by housing activity and consumer spending. However, the long-term direction remains supported by increasing online penetration.

Temple & Webster’s focus on data, customer experience, and product range positions it to capture a larger share of the market as buying behaviour continues to evolve.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Xero is another ASX growth share that has built strong momentum over time.

It provides cloud-based accounting software to small and medium-sized businesses. Xero’s platform sits at the centre of financial operations, making it an important part of day-to-day business activity.

The company’s long-term opportunity is tied to both subscriber growth and expanding functionality. It now serves millions of users globally and continues to invest in areas such as payments and artificial intelligence.

Its strategy reflects this. Xero is focused on becoming a broader financial platform, combining accounting with payments and insights. The addition of Melio is expected to accelerate its presence in the US and improve monetisation over time.

With a large addressable market and multiple growth drivers, Xero could be a share to hold for the long term.

The post 3 amazing ASX growth shares that continue to stand out appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Black Cat, Mirvac, Qantas, and Temple & Webster shares are falling today
• Why I’d invest $2,500 in Life360 and Pro Medicus shares today
• Are Xero shares a buy after rebounding 17% from three-year low
• Guess which ASX 200 stock is sinking 15% on CEO change
• Temple & Webster names Susie Sugden CEO as Mark Coulter becomes Executive Chair

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Pro Medicus, Temple & Webster Group, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Temple & Webster Group and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares have come under pressure on Friday after the company released its March quarter update.

The stock is down 13.6% to $7.38 at the time of writing, giving back some of its recent gains.

Even with today’s drop, the IGO share price is still up around 7% over the past month.

Here’s what came through.

Strong cash flow and earnings at Nova

According to the release, IGO reported a clear improvement in financial performance across the quarter.

Group sales revenue rose 45% to $119.7 million, supported by stronger pricing and higher volumes from its Nova operation.

Underlying EBITDA came in at $119 million, up on the prior period. Free cash flow was $35.8 million, while net cash lifted to $327 million.

A large part of that improvement came from Nova, which delivered higher nickel and copper production alongside stronger realised prices.

Nova generated $52 million in free cash flow for the quarter, with EBITDA rising 43% to $61 million.

Greenbushes still lagging

The weaker point in the update came from Greenbushes which seems to have upset investors.

Production was broadly flat at 351,000 tonnes, with lower grades, recoveries, and maintenance downtime weighing on output.

At the same time, unit costs increased due to higher stripping activity and site costs.

Even so, realised pricing improved over the quarter. The average spodumene price nearly doubled to US$1,668 per tonne, reflecting tighter lithium market conditions compared to earlier periods.

IGO also reduced its FY26 production guidance for Greenbushes to 1,375,000 tonnes to 1,425,000 tonnes, pointing to ongoing operational challenges.

In the end, prices are doing a lot of the work right now, while production is still taking time to come through.

Lithium downstream still building

At Kwinana, production lifted to 3,047 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, or about 51% of nameplate capacity.

While that’s a step forward, the plant is still not running at full pace.

Costs came down as volumes improved, although the operation still posted an EBITDA loss of $7.7 million for the quarter.

There is also a planned shutdown across April and May, which will affect output in the short-term.

It is still early days, but the focus is getting the plant running more consistently and lifting volumes over time.

Foolish takeaway

The share price reaction suggests the market was looking for more from the lithium side.

Nova is doing most of the heavy lifting, with strong margins and steady cash flow coming through. That is helping support the group, but it is not enough to offset the variability across the lithium assets.

Cash has improved over the quarter, and the balance sheet looks stronger.

But Greenbushes and Kwinana still need to settle, with production and costs not yet stable.

Until that improves, the IGO share price is likely to move with how those operations perform.

The post IGO shares sink 14%. Here’s what just spooked investors? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• IGO lowers Greenbushes guidance
• ASX lithium shares rally as oil shock highlights EV appeal
• ASX 200 mining shares rebound after March sell-off creates opportunities
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX lithium shares ‘compelling’ as top broker adjusts ratings

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a rough period for a number of high-quality ASX 200 shares.

Some have sold off heavily on short-term concerns, even though their longer-term outlooks still look intact. When that happens, I think it is worth taking a closer look.

Here are three that stand out to me right now.

Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH)

Cochlear shares have fallen sharply this week after cutting its FY26 earnings guidance, and that has clearly shaken investor confidence.

The cochlear implant company now expects underlying net profit after tax of $290 million to $330 million, well below previous expectations. Softer demand in developed markets, weaker referral activity, and some uncertainty tied to the Middle East have all played a role.

That sounds concerning, but I think the context matters.

A lot of the weakness appears to be short term. Hospital capacity constraints, lower consumer confidence, and delays in referrals are affecting surgical volumes right now. I don’t believe these are structural changes to the business.

At the same time, Cochlear is still seeing strong adoption of its new Nexa system and continues to gain market share in developed markets. Services revenue is also growing strongly, with double-digit growth in the third quarter.

What I think is important is that the long-term opportunity has not changed. The adult and seniors segment continues to represent a large growth market, and Cochlear is continuing to invest in new technology and expand its pipeline.

For me, this looks like a period of short-term pressure rather than a broken growth story.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Treasury Wine Estates is another name that has been under pressure, with this ASX 200 share down heavily over the past year.

However, its update this week suggests things may be starting to turn.

The company is rolling out a new regional operating model aimed at improving execution and efficiency across its global business. This is part of a broader transformation strategy focused on long-term growth.

At the same time, underlying demand trends appear to be improving.

Depletions, which are a key measure of sales momentum, returned to growth in several markets. In the US, depletions were up 9.1% in the third quarter, while China delivered particularly strong growth during the Chinese New Year period.

Management also expects earnings in the second half to be higher than the first half.

To me, this combination of improving momentum and structural change could be important. If execution continues to improve, sentiment could start to follow.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

Telix Pharmaceuticals has also seen its share price fall significantly, largely due to delays around regulatory approvals.

That said, there has been some meaningful progress recently. The FDA has now accepted Telix’s application for its TLX101-Px imaging agent, with a decision expected in September 2026. This moves the product closer to potential commercialisation.

The product targets glioma imaging, an area with a significant unmet need, and has received both Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations.

Beyond this, the broader pipeline continues to develop, with multiple late-stage assets and ongoing investment supporting future growth.

I think this is one where progress can be uneven, but the long-term opportunity is still there.

Foolish takeaway

These three ASX 200 shares have all fallen heavily, but for different reasons.

Cochlear is dealing with softer near-term demand, Treasury Wine Estates is reshaping its business, and Telix is working through regulatory timelines.

In each case, I think the long-term story still looks intact. That is why I see these as three ASX 200 shares that could be worth a closer look after their recent sell-offs.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares too cheap to ignore after sell-offs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Could these ASX stocks really be set to double after crashing this week?
• 2 ASX 200 shares newly upgraded this week
• Why is everyone buying this beaten-down ASX wine stock now?
• What is Morgans saying about Cochlear and Northern Star shares?
• 5 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are catching the eye on Friday.

In morning trade, the lithium miner’s shares are up 6% to $6.03.

This follows the release of a record-breaking third-quarter update before the market open.

PLS shares jump on update

Investors have responded positively to news that PLS has delivered a record quarter of production.

According to the release, the company posted a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase in spodumene concentrate production to 232.4kt. Management advised that this reflects strong execution across the Pilgangoora operation, underpinned by improved plant reliability, increased run time, and consistently high lithium recovery.

This means that production is now up 25% year-to-date at 665.2kt.

And while sales were down 16% quarter-on-quarter to 195.7kt, management notes that this was on budget.

Furthermore, with a 61% increase in its realised price to US$1,867 per tonne, revenue jumped 52% to A$567 million.

Another positive is that its unit operating costs reduced by 11% from the last quarter to A$520 per tonne, which reflects higher production volumes and higher capitalised waste stripping.

This resulted in a sizeable cash margin from operations of A$461 million, which is a whopping 178% increase quarter-on-quarter. As a result, at the end of the period, PLS’ cash balance had increased by 52% to A$1,455 million.

In addition, since the end of the quarter, the company’s balance sheet and funding flexibility has been strengthened with the completion of a US$600 million senior unsecured notes issuance.

Fuel update

PLS has provided an update on its fuel situation amid the war in the Middle East. It stated:

PLS continues to monitor potential supply chain disruptions arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly in relation to global energy markets and key industrial inputs. The Company is working closely with its long-term contracted suppliers to manage any emerging risks. At this time, PLS does not expect any material disruption to operations or any impact to FY26 guidance.

It also advised that it “does not foresee any immediate supply constraints for other key inputs, including explosives and processing reagents, and continues to work closely with suppliers to ensure continuity of operations.”

Outlook

PLS has reaffirmed all its guidance for FY 2026.

This will mean production of 820kt to 870kt with unit operating costs of A$560 per tonne to A$600 per tonne.

It also revealed that it plans to release its guidance for FY 2027 with its next quarterly update.

The post PLS shares jump 6% on record quarter and massive cash generation appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• PLS Group provides March quarter earnings update
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Buy, hold, sell: NextDC, Hub24, PLS Group shares
• After more than quadrupling investors’ money in a year, are PLS shares still a buy?
• What are experts saying about these red hot ASX 200 shares?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are under pressure on Friday morning.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 iron ore stock is down 1% to $20.77.

Why are Fortescue shares falling today?

The weakness appears to be driven by the release of the company’s third-quarter update, which showed shipments falling short of expectations.

According to the update, Fortescue reported total iron ore shipments of 48.4 million tonnes (Mt) for the third quarter.

This was below consensus estimates of approximately 49Mt, which may have disappointed investors.

Weather impacts and softer quarterly performance

While shipments were up 5% on the prior corresponding period, they were down from 50.5Mt in the previous quarter.

The company pointed to weather disruptions as a key factor, particularly at its Iron Bridge operation.

Shipments of Iron Bridge concentrate were just 2.0Mt for the quarter, with production and outload impacted by Tropical Cyclones Mitchell and Narelle.

These disruptions also led to a downgrade in Iron Bridge shipment guidance for FY 2026, which has been revised to 9Mt to 10Mt from 10Mt to 12Mt previously.

Costs and pricing

On a more positive note, Fortescue reported improved cost performance during the quarter.

Hematite C1 unit costs came in at US$18.29 per wet metric tonne, which was 4% lower than the previous quarter.

The company also achieved a realised hematite price of US$92 per dry metric tonne, representing 89% of the benchmark Platts 61% index.

Iron Bridge concentrate achieved a stronger price of US$122 per dry metric tonne, reflecting its higher-grade product.

Strong nine-month performance

Despite the softer quarterly result, Fortescue highlighted that its performance over the longer term remains solid.

Total shipments reached a record 148.7Mt for the nine months to 31 March, which is 4% higher than the prior corresponding period.

This suggests that while the third quarter missed expectations, overall production trends remain positive.

Fortescue Metals and Operations CEO, Dino Otranto, said:

We delivered a solid quarter, contributing to record shipments of 148.7 million tonnes for the nine months to March. That reflects a significant effort from the team right across the business.

At the same time, we’re getting on with decarbonising our operations and we’re already seeing the benefits. Given volatility in global energy markets, there’s never been a clearer reason why this matters. For us, it’s about strengthening energy security, lowering costs and eliminating emissions.

Green energy investment

In a separate announcement, Fortescue revealed that it has approved a US$680 million investment to expand its green energy capacity in the Pilbara.

The investment will fund the development of a 200MW Pilbara Green Energy Project, which is expected to deliver additional renewable energy generation beyond what is required for its Real Zero by 2030 strategy.

Management advised that the project will form part of a fully integrated, off-grid renewable energy system, including large-scale battery storage and firming capability.

The project is expected to be completed by 2028 and is designed to support growing demand for green power from industry, including data centres.

Fortescue’s Executive Chairman, Dr Andrew Forrest AO, said:

Fortescue is already demonstrating in the Pilbara that heavy industry can operate on a fully integrated renewable grid – eliminating fossil fuels while improving cost, reliability and control. “We are now extending this model to new customers, particularly data centres, helping meet one of the fastest growing sources of demand in the world.

Outlook

Fortescue has maintained its FY 2026 shipment guidance of 195Mt to 205Mt, which includes Iron Bridge shipments of 9Mt to 10Mt.

However, with the latest quarterly result missing expectations and weather disruptions impacting performance, investors appear cautious in the near term.

The post Why are Fortescue shares falling today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Fortescue invests $680m in Pilbara Green Energy Project
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Up 67% in a year! The red-hot South32 share price is smashing BHP, Rio and Fortescue
• Why Beetaloo, Fortescue, Orora, and Whitehaven Coal shares are dropping today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When geopolitical risk collides with tight global energy supply, investors tend to reach for the same playbook. 

Buy the producers. Buy them quickly.

That is precisely what has happened so far in 2026. And few ASX 200 names have benefited more than Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS).

The Woodside share price has climbed more than 40% since the start of the year. For context, the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained roughly 2–3% over the same period. 

The gap tells its own story.

The Iran premium and what it means

The rally was triggered by the rapid escalation in the US–Iran conflict in late February, which threatened shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors.

Brent crude, which closed 2025 below US$65 per barrel, surged past US$100 quickly, then has been on a rollercoaster in the weeks that have followed. Failed peace talks, combined with a US announcement of a blockade on vessels using Iranian ports, have continued to keep the crude near highs.

Woodside has no operations in the affected region. That matters. It means the company collects the higher oil and LNG price benefit with no direct operational exposure to the conflict. Supply disruption elsewhere is essentially a windfall.

This is the kind of asymmetric positioning that generates outsized share price returns in a short period of time. It is also the kind of positioning that makes forward-looking investors nervous about what happens when the premium fades.

More than just oil prices

The easy narrative is that Woodside is simply riding the oil price. But the underlying business has actually strengthened.

In its full-year 2025 result, Woodside reported record annual production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, topping its own guidance. Costs fell 4% over the year. Its Louisiana LNG project in the United States — a significant future growth engine — was confirmed as on schedule and on budget following an investor site visit earlier this year.

Woodside’s new Managing Director and CEO Liz Westcott, who was permanently appointed earlier in 2026, has reaffirmed the company’s growth strategy, with a focus on project execution and shareholder value creation. That kind of continuity matters when a business is in the middle of a major capital programme.

On the income side, Woodside offers a dividend yield of over 5% at the time of writing, fully franked. 

Foolish takeaway

The real question is not whether Woodside deserves to be higher than it was in January. It almost certainly does. The harder question is how much of the 40%-plus move reflects a stronger business, and how much reflects a market still pricing in geopolitical stress.

Strip out the Iran premium and the oil price spike, and Woodside still looks like a business that was improving anyway. Record production, lower costs, a major growth project staying on track, and a new CEO with a clear mandate all point to a company with more going on than a simple commodity rally.

At the same time, it would be naïve to ignore how much of the recent share price strength has come from forces outside Woodside’s control. The path of Brent crude, the direction of Middle East tensions, and the mood of the market can all shift quickly. If oil prices normalise, Woodside shares may well give back some of this year’s gains.

That is the trade-off with energy stocks. They can offer powerful earnings leverage when the cycle is moving your way, but they rarely move in a straight line.

So perhaps the better lens is not asking whether Woodside is cheap or expensive based only on today’s oil price. It is asking what kind of business sits underneath the volatility, and whether that business is becoming more resilient, more productive, and better positioned for the next few years than it was before this rally began.

On that front, the case still looks interesting. The commodity risk is real, and position sizing matters. Even so, if the geopolitical premium eventually fades, Woodside may still be left with something more durable: a stronger operating base, visible project momentum, and a business that could remain worth watching long after the headlines cool.

The post Why the Woodside share price has climbed 40% in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.