Author: openjargon

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares have tumbled further into the red in Wednesday afternoon trade.

At the time of writing, the Australian gold miner’s shares are down 5.27% to $11.32. 

The latest downturn means the shares have now crashed 36% since peaking at an all-time high of $17.67 in early March. The gold stock is also 11% lower year to date but remains 40% higher than a year ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has slumped 1.27% to a seven-week low on Wednesday afternoon.

Why are Evolution Mining shares under pressure today?

There is no price-sensitive news out of Evolution Mining today to explain the latest pull-back.

It’s most likely that the slumping gold price is causing investors to sell off their shares.

Trading Economics data shows that gold is trading below US$4,500 per ounce on Wednesday, after tumbling 2% in the previous session. The latest gold price drop means the metal has slumped over 5% in value over the past month.

It looks like investors are fleeing from the safe-haven asset in anticipation that tensions between the US and Iran could reignite. Concerns around higher inflation also puts markets under pressure.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump warned that he would resume fresh strikes within “two or three days” if Tehran fails to accept Washington’s terms.

What sparked the sell-off in March?

Evolution Mining shares dropped sharply in March, mainly for the same reasons they are tumbling now.

Investors sold off their shares in ASX gold mining companies amid a broad market panic. 

Gold prices fell suddenly in late March as markets reacted to shifting expectations for US interest rates and geopolitical tensions. 

It’s also likely that investors seized the opportunity to take their profit off the table after a huge share price rally. The miner’s shares jumped 39% in the first two months of the calendar year.

As a business, Evolution Mining has been relatively strong this year. In mid-April, the company posted its quarterly update, where it revealed gold production of 170,000 ounces and copper production of 11,000 tonnes. This was achieved with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,220 per ounce, which underpinned record quarterly net mine cash flows.

Earlier this month, the company also released its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement. The company said its Mineral Resources have grown to 31 million ounces of gold and 4.2 million tonnes of copper over the past year. The miner’s contained gold increased by 900,000 ounces, or 3%.

Is the ASX gold stock now a buy, sell, or hold?

TradingView data shows that analysts are mostly positive about the outlook for Evolution Mining shares over the next 12 months.

Half of the 20 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another six rate the stock as a hold, and four have a sell or strong sell stance.

The average $14.65 target price implies a potential 29% upside at the time of writing. The maximum target price is $19.55, suggesting a huge 73% upside over the next 12 months. 

The post Evolution Mining shares crash 36% from an all-time high: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why ASX gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star could keep shining in 2026
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• ASX 200 mining shares smash multi-year highs as key commodity prices rise
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

After one of the strongest runs in the commodity market, silver is starting to wobble.

The white metal is now trading around US$73 an ounce, down almost 16% over the past 7 days. The pullback has taken some heat out of the rally, but it hasn’t changed how far silver has already moved.

Silver was trading around US$20 an ounce in 2022 before surging past US$120 an ounce earlier this year. Even after the latest fall, it remains at levels that would have looked extreme only a few years ago.

Nonetheless, billionaire resources investor Eric Sprott has a very different view.

According to The Australian, Sprott recently told Forbes he believes silver could easily climb to US$200, or even US$300 an ounce.

Sprott is a long-time precious metals investor who has been buying into the sector since the 1980s.

Forbes has estimated his fortune at about $8 billion.

Why Sprott is still bullish

Sprott’s view is built around the simple supply and demand argument.

He believes the silver market is facing a major shortfall, with demand running well ahead of mine supply.

The demand is not just coming from investors buying silver as a precious metal. A lot of the interest is also tied to silver’s industrial uses, including solar panels, electric vehicles, consumer electronics, data centres, and other modern technologies.

This is the main difference with gold. The yellow metal is more heavily driven by investment demand, central bank buying, and safe-haven interest. Silver has those same precious metal qualities, but it’s also tied to parts of the economy where demand has been growing.

Sprott also pointed to what he sees as large short positions in the silver market.

If the price changes course and keeps rising, some traders may be forced to buy silver back, which will add more pressure to the upside.

Why the silver trade remains risky

Even with Sprott taking a bullish view, the latest fall is still a reminder of how volatile silver can be.

A move from more than US$120 an ounce to around US$73 is a big drop, even if the metal remains well above its 2022 levels.

For investors, this makes the current setup more complicated. A tighter silver market may support the longer-term outlook, but short-term moves can still be driven by profit-taking, the US dollar, and bond yields.

The interest in silver is still there, but the past week has been a reminder that momentum can fade pretty quickly.

The post Silver tumbles 16% in a week, but one billionaire investor still sees more upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Down 39% in 2026, is this ASX 200 stock becoming a falling knife?
• Evolution Mining shares crash 36% from an all-time high: Buy, sell or hold?
• Why is Infratil cashing out of its Contact Energy shares?
• Buying Woolworths shares? Here’s the yield you’ll get today
• $8,000 invested in Woodside shares in December is already worth…

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) company Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT) has today announced plans to sell a part of its investment in Contact Energy Ltd (ASX: CEN).

The deal will see Infratil earn almost NZ$500m after it sells 53.5 million shares at NZ$9.25 each through a fully underwritten institutional block trade.

After the sale, Infratil’s stake in Contact Energy will drop to roughly 9.08%.

Why is Infratil selling?

According to Infratil’s management, the move is about creating flexibility for future growth opportunities rather than losing confidence in Contact Energy itself.

Infratil CEO Jason Boyes said the company remains confident in both Contact Energy and the broader energy sector outlook. He noted that Infratil originally received its Contact Energy stake as part of the Manawa Energy transaction, which was completed in 2025.

Boyes also said Infratil currently has no immediate funding pressures, but believes it is prudent to reposition its capital now so that the company is ready to support future growth opportunities across its portfolio.

That explanation makes sense given how infrastructure investors typically operate.

Companies like Infratil regularly recycle capital by selling mature investments and redirecting funds into new opportunities with potentially stronger long-term returns. Infratil has investments spanning renewable energy, digital infrastructure, healthcare, and data centres. These are all sectors that require substantial amounts of capital to grow.

Importantly, Infratil is not completely exiting Contact Energy.

The company said it intends to retain its remaining shares through at least Contact Energy’s FY26 results announcement in August 2026, subject to customary exceptions.

Contact Energy shares were placed in a trading halt prior to the announcements, and its investors will likely be focused on the large volume of shares being sold into the market. Big sell-downs can sometimes place short-term pressure on a stock simply because of the increase in supply.

Longer term, though, investors will probably pay closer attention to Contact Energy’s underlying business performance and Infratil’s next move with the cash raised from the sale.

Infratil shares are up 28% so far in 2026, whilst Contact Energy shares are roughly flat from where they started the year.

The post Why is Infratil cashing out of its Contact Energy shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Contact Energy reports April 2026 earnings
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher in this week’s flat market
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why DigiCo, HMC Capital, Infratil, and Qantas shares are taking off today

Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.  The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Most of the blue-chip stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) are well-known dividend payers, and as such, can be found in many a dividend investor’s income portfolio. That’s certainly the case when it comes to Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares.

Woolworths has often enjoyed quite a premium from ASX investors, thanks, at least in part, to its defensive, consumer staples nature and dominant position in the Australian grocery market. As a result, Woolies has never really had the kind of yield that other blue chips, particularly the big four banks, have offered investors.

Even so, Woolworths has historically been a reliable dividend payer, and one that typically attaches full-franking credits to its payouts.

Let’s go through what kind of dividend yield investors can expect if they buy Woolworths shares today.

What kind of dividends do Woolworths shares pay?

At the time of writing, Woolworths shares are trading at $34.54 each, up 0.95% for the day thus far. At this pricing, Woolworths is trading on a trailing dividend yield of 2.61%.

That 2.61% comes from the grocer’s last two dividends. The most recent of these was the 2026 interim dividend, which arrived in investors’ bank accounts on 1 April last month. It was worth 45 cents per share and came with full-franking credits attached. Before that, Woolies doled out a final dividend in September last year, which was also worth a fully-franked 45 cents per share. That 90 cents per share gives the company that 2.61% yield at current pricing.

These two dividends were a bit of a mixed bag. The interim payment did come in 15.4% above last year’s equivalent dividend of 39 cents per share. Saying that, 2025’s final dividend was well below the 57 cents per share that investors bagged in September of 2024. And that’s not even factoring in the special 40-cent-per-share dividend either.

However, none of this means much for investors wondering how much income they will bag if they buy Woolworths shares today. After all, a trailing yield merely reflects the past; it does not tell us anything about the future.

What’s next for this dividend stock?

Fortunately for anyone eyeing off Woolworths shares today, analysts predict the company will boost its income over the next few years. Earlier this month, my Fool colleague Grace looked at the consensus on Woolworths’ future dividends.

She found that analysts are pencilling in 99.5 cents per share in dividends from Woolies over FY 2026, rising to $1.13 in FY 2027, and then to $1.28 in FY 2028. That would equate to a forward yield of 2.88%, 3.27%, and 3.71%, respectively, at current pricing.

That will no doubt get some investors excited. But we shall have to wait and see if these estimates are on the money.

The post Buying Woolworths shares? Here’s the yield you’ll get today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Woolworths shares jump 5% as broker tips more upside
• How to build a passive income stream with ASX shares
• 5 excellent ASX dividend shares to buy with $50,000
• How to build passive income with ASX shares in 3 easy steps
• How to build passive income on the ASX without chasing the highest yield

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon.

At the time of writing, the shares are up 0.53% to $32.45 each.

That means they’ve rocketed 37% for the year to date and are up a huge 51% versus this time last year. The oil and gas giant’s share price rally accelerated in early March, when conflict between the US and Iran ramped up.

So, if I bought $8,000 worth of Woodside shares in December, what are they worth now?

Woodside shares were trading at a low of $22.80 five months ago on the 18th of December. That’s 42.37% lower than the share price at the time of writing.

It means that any investor who bought $8,000 of Woodside shares in the dip would have $11,389.60 today.

And the shares keep on climbing…

Oil price and supply concerns have plagued the first few months of 2026, but volatility has been a strong tailwind for Woodside shares over the past few months. 

Even though conflict in the Middle East has cooled, it remains highly volatile, and the movement of oil in the region is still uncertain.

Shipping disruptions and production cuts caused oil prices to skyrocket to a multi-year high of around US$111 per barrel in April. While the price of oil has now softened slightly, Trading Economics data shows oil is still trading for well over US$100 per barrel. That’s a huge 70% higher than just one year ago.

It’s not just market demand driving the company’s shares higher, either.

Woodside grabbed headlines in late April after it posted its first-quarter FY26 update. The oil and gas producer reported a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating revenue and a 8% hike in revenue. The company’s production figures were lower thanks to weather events, but this was offset by a 11% increase in the average realised price of oil.

The company also confirmed that its Woodside Scarborough Energy Project is nearing completion and its Trion oil project is 56% complete.

How high can Woodside shares go?

Analysts are pretty divided on Woodside shares over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows that seven out of 17 have a hold rating on the shares. Another five have buy or strong buy ratings, and two rate the company a sell or strong sell.

The average $33.46 target price implies a potential 3% upside at the time of writing. However, others are more bullish and think the shares could jump as high as 36% to $43.96 over the next 12 months. 

My view? While oil supply is still under pressure and prices are close to multi-year highs, I think Woodside shares are a screaming buy right now.

The post $8,000 invested in Woodside shares in December is already worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX stocks that could benefit from oil prices hitting US$105 a barrel
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Brazilian Rare Earths, Pro Medicus, Service Stream, and Woodside shares are charging higher
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• ASX 200 energy shares rise as global oil shock drags on

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models and recommendations. This has led to a number of broker notes being released this week.

Three ASX shares that brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why their analysts are feeling bullish on them right now:

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have put a buy rating and $13.05 price target on this uranium producer’s shares. Morgans is feeling bullish on the uranium industry, highlighting that low prices over the past couple of decades means that the chemical element is in short supply. So, with reactor demand increasing, it believes there is a structural supply deficit, which could be good news for uranium prices. It points out that China has a large number of reactors under construction and the US is targeting a significant increase in nuclear energy output over the next two decades. And given the quality of Paladin Energy’s assets, Morgans believes it is well-placed to benefit from these trends. The Paladin Energy share price is trading at $10.36 on Wednesday.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $32.25 price target on this enterprise software provider’s shares. This follows the release of a half-year result earlier this week. Bell Potter was pleased with the result, highlighting that its profits and annual recurring revenue were largely in line with expectations. And with management’s guidance also in line with its expectations, it remains very positive on the investment opportunity here. Overall, the broker believes the stock should continue to perform well given it is the best positioned tech stock on the ASX to benefit from rather than be disrupted by artificial intelligence. The TechnologyOne share price is fetching $30.03 at the time of writing.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Another note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this online furniture retailer’s shares with a reduced price target of $7.00. The broker has been reviewing its estimates and valuation following a recent update. While this has seen Bell Potter trim both its earnings forecasts and price target, it remains very positive. It points out that due to the continuous decline in its share price, Temple & Webster’s shares are at the levels of the last profit optimisation cycle in 2022. However, importantly, they are trading at a more attractive EV/sales multiple. Overall, it sees long term valuation support in a high-quality ecommerce retailer with range, pricing/scale advantages, and an AI/data capability backed by a strong balance sheet to take up inorganic growth opportunities. The Temple & Webster share price is trading at $4.80 today.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up about 80% this year, these ASX uranium stocks are still a buy
• Why Catapult, GenusPlus, Meeka Metals, and TechnologyOne shares are pushing higher today
• Does Bell Potter think TechnologyOne shares are a buy?
• A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares?
• 3 reasons to sell this ASX tech stock

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have climbed to a multi-year high in Wednesday afternoon trade. At the time of writing, the oil and gas producer’s shares are up 0.74% to $8.15.

The daily increase doesn’t sound like much, but it means the shares are now trading at the highest level seen since early June 2022. At one point this morning, Santos shares were trading as high as $8.19.

The stock is now 33% higher year to date and 28% above its trading price 12 months ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen into the red today, down 1.17% at the time of writing.

Why are Santos shares storming higher?

Rising oil prices have acted as a strong tailwind for Santos shares over the past three months. War between the US and Iran severely restricted global oil supply and caused oil prices to become incredibly volatile. 

Even though the conflict has cooled, the region is still highly volatile, and the movement of oil is still unreliable.

Trading Economics data shows that the price of WTI crude oil is currently sitting at around US$104 per barrel. This is a decline from the US$111 spike we saw in late April, but it still represents a 69% increase from one year ago. It is also around double the trading price seen in late January this year.

Aside from geopolitical uncertainty and a tight oil market, there are also a few company-specific price drivers, including a rise in production and improved cash flow.

Late last month, Santos posted its March quarter update, where it revealed a 1% increase in production and 3% rise in sales revenue versus the prior quarter. Its free cash flow from operations of US$383 million was in line with Q4 2025, and management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 production and cost guidance.

The company also announced a major oil production milestone on Monday this week. It confirmed its first oil production from its Pikka phase 1 development on Alaska’s North Slope. The ramp-up is expected to continue over the coming weeks.

Has the buying opportunity passed for investors?

Absolutely not.

If analyst forecasts are anything to go by, we’ll see a lot more out of Santos shares over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows that the majority of analysts are very bullish on the oil and gas company’s shares. Out of 14, 11 have a buy or strong buy rating. The remaining three rate the stock as a hold.

The average $8.60 target price implies a potential 6% upside at the time of writing. Although some think Santos shares could fly another 28% to $10.42 a piece.

The post Santos shares smash 4-year high. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX stocks that could benefit from oil prices hitting US$105 a barrel
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why are Santos shares jumping higher today?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Aussie share market is struggling to find a floor on Wednesday, with another wave of selling pushing the benchmark index lower.

At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.2% to 8,499 points.

That move has taken the index back to a new 7-week low, with banks and miners doing much of the damage.

The ASX 200 is now down around 5% over the past month and 2.5% since the start of 2026.

Banks and miners drag the market lower

Today’s weakness is being led by two of the biggest sectors in the local market.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are both down more than 2%, putting pressure on the S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR).

Gold miners are also weaker after the price of the yellow metal eased, with Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) tumbling 5.19%.

The major banks aren’t helping either. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) are all lower.

The weakness has also spread as the session has gone on. By early afternoon, 7 of the 11 sectors were lower, while 146 of the 200 stocks in the index were trading in the red.

There are still a few pockets of strength, with Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) up 8.5%, 1.16%, and 2.1%, respectively.

Wall Street gives investors another reason to sell

The selling on the ASX follows another cautious session on Wall Street, where higher bond yields kept investors on edge.

Reuters reported that Asian shares fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, with markets still reacting to the move higher in US yields.

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a 16-month high, while the 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2007.

Oil prices are also having a say. Brent crude remained above US$110 a barrel as investors watched tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Foolish Takeaway

The ASX 200 has a lot working against it today.

With the banks and miners both lower, the index is having a hard time holding its ground.

Inflation risks are still hanging around as well, which means investors have the RBA outlook to think about before buying the dip.

Until that changes, the market will struggle to find much support.

The post ASX 200 drops to a new 7-week low as banks and miners sink appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here’s the average superannuation balance at age 51 in Australia. How does yours compare?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Technology One, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Bank shares have been a reliable place for investors to hide this year, but the mood is starting to shift.

The ‘big four’ are under pressure again on Wednesday after Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) warned that conditions have turned against the sector faster than expected.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are down 0.71% to $161.73 at the time of writing.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) is down 1% to $36.02, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is 1% lower at $36.73, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is down 1% to $35.31.

The falls add to a rough month for the banks. CBA has dropped 9%, Westpac is down 9%, NAB has lost 14%, and ANZ has fallen 7%.

Morgan Stanley sees more trouble ahead

According to The Australian, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Wiles believes operating conditions for Australia’s major banks have “deteriorated rapidly”.

The broker is now expecting consensus earnings per share (EPS) forecasts to fall after a soft reporting season.

Wiles pointed to several pressures landing at once. These include the three RBA interest rate rises, proposed property tax changes in the federal budget, and the global energy shock.

Morgan Stanley had previously lifted its earnings forecasts for the ‘big four’ by about 4% in February. It has now cut them by a similar amount, with larger downgrades aimed at NAB and Westpac.

Margins and bad debts in focus

Bank investors usually pay close attention to margins, credit quality and capital strength. On those measures, the latest reporting season gave the market a few reasons to be careful.

The Australian reported that margin trends disappointed, while the four major banks set aside about $800 million in extra provisions for potential bad loans.

Capital levels at CBA and NAB also came in below expectations.

NAB has already moved to strengthen its position, raising about $1.8 billion through its dividend reinvestment plan (DRP).

Dividend growth expectations have also cooled. Management teams at CBA, NAB and Westpac have signalled that payout ratios are likely to move back toward the middle of their target ranges.

Valuations still look stretched

Furthermore, the major banks are trading on an average 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18.5 times.

Wiles sees more room for that multiple to fall. His order of preference is ANZ first, followed by Westpac, NAB and CBA last.

CBA remains the standout premium stock in the sector, with a market capitalisation of about $270.65 billion. But its share price is now down 6% over the past year.

ANZ has held up better over 12 months, rising 22%, but it is still down 3% in 2026.

Foolish takeaway

The big four banks are still some of the most profitable businesses on the ASX. But after a strong run, investors are starting to question whether their share prices still leave much room for disappointment.

Lower margins, rising bad debt risks and slower dividend growth aren’t a great mix.

Morgan Stanley’s warning suggests the sector may need more than steady earnings to keep investors happy.

The post Are CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ shares heading for more pain? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here is what Westpac is paying shareholders in June 2026
• Is the CBA share price a buy for its 4.5% dividend yield?
• Which big four ASX bank stock is the best buy right now?
• Why is the ASX 200 starting at a 7-week low today?
• Buying Westpac shares? Here’s the yield you’ll get today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in ASX small-cap Vista Group International Ltd (ASX: VGL) are surging on Wednesday after the cinema software company announced a major new long-term agreement with Mexican cinema giant Cinépolis.

What did the company announce?

At the time of writing, Vista Group shares are up 8% after investors responded positively to news that Cinépolis will transition its huge Mexican cinema circuit onto Vista Cloud’s Operational Excellence platform.

Cinépolis is the largest cinema exhibitor in Mexico, with a circuit that includes more than 500 cinema sites and over 4,100 screens, making it one of Vista’s most significant customer wins announced in recent years.

The agreement runs for six years and includes all Vista Cloud capabilities, and the transition is expected to take place over the course of this year.

Why are investors excited by the deal?

Investors appear excited because the deal represents more than just another contract win.

Vista has been heavily pushing into cloud-based software solutions as part of a broader transition toward recurring, more predictable revenue streams. In the software sector, cloud agreements are often viewed favourably by the market because they tend to have higher margins, and they can improve customer retention and long-term scalability.

This latest deal also builds on an existing relationship between the two companies.

Vista previously worked with Cinépolis to migrate its Spanish cinema circuit, Cine Yelmo, onto Vista Cloud across 2024 and 2025.

What did management say?

Management said the success of that rollout helped secure this much larger deployment in Mexico.

Vista Group CEO Stuart Dickinson described Cinépolis as “a giant in the cinema market globally” and said the agreement demonstrates the “market fit” of Vista’s Operational Excellence capability for major exhibitors.

While the global cinema industry continues to face questions around post-pandemic attendance trends and the rise of streaming, Vista’s investment case is increasingly centred on becoming a mission-critical enterprise software provider to cinema operators around the world.

Today’s sharp share price reaction suggests investors believe this latest agreement could become an important milestone in that strategy.

The post Here’s why Vista Group shares are charging 8% higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.  The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Vista Group International. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.