Author: openjargon

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are back in favour.

On Thursday, the supermarket giant’s shares hit a 52-week high of $40.10.

That is a strong vote of confidence from the market, particularly after a difficult period for the retail sector more broadly.

Investors appear to be warming again to Woolworths’ defensive qualities, its scale, and the resilience of supermarket spending.

But after such a strong move, is there still value left for investors?

Why Woolworths remains attractive

Woolworths sits in one of the most dependable parts of the Australian economy.

Households may postpone major purchases when budgets are tight, but grocery spending is far harder to avoid.

That gives Woolworths a level of defensive strength that many ASX shares cannot match.

The company also has huge scale. Its supermarkets serve millions of customers each week, supported by a large store network, online operations, loyalty data, supplier relationships, and logistics infrastructure. That scale can be difficult to replicate.

But the valuation is no longer cheap

The main challenge is valuation. At current levels, Woolworths shares are trading on approximately 31 times expected FY 2026 earnings. This is based on forecast earnings per share of $1.30.

Looking ahead to FY 2027, analysts are expecting earnings per share of $1.48. That still places the stock on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 27 times.

Those are not bargain-level multiples. Investors are paying a premium for Woolworths’ defensive profile, reliable customer demand, and long-term market position.

That may be justified if earnings growth improves from here. But it also means there is less room for disappointment.

If margins come under pressure, competition intensifies, or sales growth slows, the share price could be vulnerable after reaching a 52-week high.

Woolworths also remains relevant for income investors. Analysts are expecting dividends of 99.5 cents per share in FY 2026 and $1.13 per share in FY 2027. This represents dividend yields of approximately 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively.

That’s not the largest dividend yield you’ll find on the Australian share market, but it is welcome income for investors.

Are Woolworths shares a buy?

Woolworths remains a high-quality ASX blue chip. Its role in everyday household spending, national scale, and strong customer position make it a business that many investors would be comfortable owning for years.

But at a 52-week high, the easy value case has faded.

I would argue that Woolworths looks more like a quality hold than an obvious bargain at today’s price, though long-term investors may still see appeal in its defensive earnings profile.

The post Are Woolworths shares still a buy at a 52-week high? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This ASX 200 giant just hit a 52-week high. Is it getting too expensive?
• Woolworths shares soar to new multi-year high: Buy, sell or hold?
• One ASX dividend and one ASX growth stock to buy now
• How to build an ASX share portfolio that can survive a market selloff
• Woolworths shares vs Coles: Buy, hold, or sell these ASX giants?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are hunting ASX dividend shares to buy for your income portfolio in July, then read on.

That’s because Morgans recently named two that could be among the best to buy right now. Here’s what it is recommending to clients:

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

The team at Morgans recently put a buy rating and 85 cents price target on this footwear retailer’s shares.

It made the move after the HypeDC and Platypus owner received an opportunistic takeover offer. It said:

Frasers Group has made an unconditional on-market cash takeover offer for AX1 at $0.65 per share, which represents no premium to the closing share price. We see this offer as opportunistic, given the weakness in the share price over the last 12 months (down 64%), and see scope for Frasers to revise its bid higher. We have made no changes to our forecasts, but have increased our target price to $0.85 (from $0.75) applying a lower discretionary discount. We retain our BUY recommendation.

With respect to dividends, Morgans expects Accent to reward its shareholders with fully franked payouts of 3.8 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 5 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on the current Accent share price of 72 cents, this would mean dividend yields of 5.3% and 6.9%, respectively.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

Morgans thinks that Flight Centre could be an ASX dividend share to snap up.

The broker recently put a buy rating and $14.80 price target on the travel agent’s shares. It said:

Given recent downgrades from other travel industry peers due to the conflict in the Middle East, FLT’s downgrade wasn’t a surprise. Given its balance sheet strength and depressed share price, a new up to A$200m share buyback was announced. We have made only minor changes to our forecasts given FLT’s guidance was broadly in line with our previous forecast.

While a peace agreement and eased travel restrictions are positive, we think 1H27 will still be challenging. We forecast a strong recovery in 2H27. If it wasn’t for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We are buyers of FLT because when operating conditions ultimately improve, both its earnings and share price will be materially higher.

As for income, the broker is expecting fully franked dividends of 40 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 48 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $12.06, this represents attractive 3.3% and 4% dividend yields, respectively.

The post 2 of the best ASX dividend shares to buy in July appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy, hold, sell: Flight Centre, Supply Network, Lottery Corporation shares
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Accent Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If I had $2,000 to invest in ASX tech shares, I would be looking for businesses with large markets, useful products, and room to become more important to customers over time.

Two shares that stand out to me right now are Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) and Block Inc (ASX: XYZ).

They are in very different positions. Xero shares are trading around $67.85, just above their 52-week low of $65.00. Block shares have been performing far better and are trading around $109.88, which is within sight of their 52-week high of $127.88 and well above their 52-week low of $69.40.

Despite the different share price momentum, I think both are buys.

Xero shares

Xero is the more beaten-down of the two.

The small-business accounting software company has been through a rough period in the market, but I think the long-term opportunity remains attractive.

What I like about Xero is the role it can play in the daily financial life of a small business. Accounting software is the starting point, but the bigger opportunity is much broader than that.

A small business owner needs to send invoices, pay staff, manage tax, track cash flow, connect bank feeds, understand expenses, chase payments, and make decisions with limited time. If Xero can keep bringing more of those jobs into one easy-to-use platform, it can become more valuable to customers.

The company has already built a strong position in markets such as Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. The challenge is growing in the key US market, expanding its usefulness, and using automation and artificial intelligence in ways that save customers time.

The Xero share price being close to its 52-week low does not guarantee a quick recovery. But I think it gives patient investors a more attractive entry point into a high-quality software business with a large global opportunity.

Block shares

Block is a different type of fintech share. The company owns Square, Cash App, Afterpay, and other payment and financial technology businesses. That gives it exposure to merchants, consumers, payments, lending, point-of-sale tools, buy now pay later, and broader financial services.

What interests me is the way Block sits on both sides of commerce.

Square helps businesses accept payments and manage parts of their operations. Cash App is consumer-facing, giving users a way to send, spend, save, and access financial products. Afterpay adds another layer by connecting customers and merchants through instalment payments.

That creates a large ecosystem.

Block is no longer a tiny disruptor, but I still think it has growth potential if it can deepen its relationship with merchants and consumers. Payments are a huge market, and businesses increasingly want tools that help them manage sales, customers, inventory, staff, data, and finance in one place.

The share price has already recovered strongly from its low, so the setup is different to Xero. But I do not think a stronger share price should automatically scare investors away from a business that is executing well.

For me, Block offers exposure to the future of digital payments and small business financial tools.

Foolish takeaway

If I were investing $2,000 into these two ASX tech shares, I would probably split the money across both rather than trying to pick one clear winner.

The appeal is that both businesses are trying to become more useful in areas where money, payments, and small-business operations are increasingly digital. Xero is doing that through software for small businesses, while Block is doing it through a broader fintech ecosystem.

Both companies still need to execute, and both can be volatile. But I like the long-term customer problems they are solving. Small businesses need better financial tools, merchants need smarter payment systems, and consumers keep shifting toward digital ways to manage money. That gives both Xero and Block a large growth runway.

The post Why I’d buy Xero and Block shares with $2,000 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Is the tech recovery finally here for Xero and Wisetech shares?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Benz Mining, Collins Foods, WiseTech, and Xero shares are shooting higher today
• US chip stocks were smashed overnight. So why are ASX tech shares rising?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Block and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a poor session and dropped deep into the red.  The benchmark index fell 0.7% to 8,748.7 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday despite a mixed night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 14 points or 0.15% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.15%, but the S&P 500 was down slightly and the Nasdaq fell 0.45%.

Oil prices recover

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a decent finish to the week after oil prices recovered overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2% to US$71.74 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$75.01 a barrel. This follows reports of an attack on a cargo vessel by Iran.

Buy Minerals 260 shares

Bell Potter thinks Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6) shares are undervalued and could offer major upside. This morning, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and $1.35 price target on the ASX gold stock. Commenting on the gold developer, the broker said: “MI6 offers gold exposure via the 4.5Moz Bullabulling Resource, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production. It holds ~$250m cash, sufficient to fund to Final Investment Decision (FID) in early CY27, long-lead items and early site works. We retain our $1.35/sh Valuation and Speculative Buy recommendation.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.8% to US$4,040.1 an ounce. The release of US inflation data eased rate hike fears and gave the precious metal a boost.

Buy Nickel Industries shares

Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC) shares could be good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $1.55 (from $1.45). It commented: “NIC offers nickel price leverage and diversified margin exposure across an integrated value chain. The HPAL expansion transactions will further balance NIC’s earnings into downstream higher-margin operations and preserve earnings through the nickel price cycle. We lift our Target Price 7% to $1.55/sh and retain our Buy rating.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What’s next for BHP shares? Broker forecasts revealed
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 drops again as investors dump banks and miners
• Crude oil falls below US$70 as ASX energy shares sell-off
• Why Judo Capital, Minerals 260, Santos, and Worley shares are dropping today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Picking three popular ASX blue chip shares is the easy part of this exercise.

The harder question is whether Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) can still justify their place in a portfolio two decades from now, not just today.

Each faces a genuine test over that horizon, and each currently looks like it can pass it, for different reasons.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: the test is whether dominance survives disruption

CBA’s 20-year test is not whether it remains Australia’s largest bank. It has a good chance of it.

The real test is whether a dominant, capital-intensive incumbent can keep fending off digital disruption for two more decades, as it has for the past two.

In the first half of FY2026, CBA delivered a statutory net profit of $5.41 billion, up 5% on the prior corresponding period. Furthermore, CBA was able to continue ramping up technology spending to defend its lead.

However, at approximately 26 times forward earnings, CBA already prices in a significant amount of that continued dominance.

The bull case rests on scale, trust, and a banking app used by more Australians than any rivals. These advantages compound slowly but have proven durable across multiple banking cycles already.

Macquarie Group: the test is whether a trading culture can keep reinventing itself

Macquarie’s 20-year test is different again.

Unlike a retail bank, Macquarie has already reinvented its business model multiple times across three decades, moving from a niche investment bank into one of the world’s largest infrastructure and asset managers.

Morgans was impressed with Macquarie’s FY2026 performance. The broker noted profit was up strongly on the prior year and ahead of consensus estimates. However, the broker flagged that, following recent share price strength, Macquarie shares are close to being fully valued today.

Yet for long-term holders, the case for Macquarie over two decades is less about today’s price and more about betting on a management culture that has consistently found its next growth engine before the previous one matured. These intrinsic competitive advantages are harder to predict than a bank’s mortgage book, but ones Macquarie has repeatedly delivered on.

CSL: the test is whether execution catches up to the moat

CSL’s 20-year test is the most interesting of the three. This is because the moat is not in question, but the recent execution has been.

Morgans retains a buy rating on CSL with a price target of $147.59, arguing the issues behind the FY2026 guidance downgrade, including China albumin price pressure and US immunoglobulin channel inventory normalisation, are executional rather than structural.

CSL’s barriers to entry in plasma collection and biotherapeutics remain extremely high, built over more than a century of operating history. That durability is why brokers have remained broadly constructive even amid a 60% decline from its all-time high.

CSL shares now trade on roughly 28 times earnings, expensive but insignificant over a 20-year time horizon.

The 20-year case for CSL is essentially a bet that an irreplaceable global franchise outlasts a difficult few years of execution. This is the kind of mis-pricing that long-term holders are supposed to be able to look through.

Why the 20-year framing changes the analysis for these ASX shares

Most “buy and hold” investors default to a five-year horizon. This is where current earnings momentum and broker price targets carry most of the weight.

Stretching that horizon to 20 years shifts the question from “what will this stock do next year” to “does the underlying moat survive technological, competitive, and cyclical change for two decades.”

CBA’s moat is threatened by digital disruption. Macquarie’s moat depends on a culture of reinvention rather than a single fixed advantage. CSL’s moat is arguably the strongest of the three on paper, but is currently being tested by execution rather than competition.

Foolish takeaway for these ASX shares

CBA, Macquarie, and CSL each represent a different kind of 20-year bet.

CBA is a bet that scale and trust keep beating disruption. Macquarie is a bet that a culture of reinvention will continue to work as well in 2046 as it has since the 1990s. CSL is a bet that an already-proven moat outlasts a rough few years of execution.

With strong track records on reinforcing their respective competitive advantages, these three blue-chip ASX shares are positioned to continue delivering well into the future.

The post 3 ASX blue chip shares to buy and hold for the next 20 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Once untouchable, now unloved: What’s up with CSL shares?
• $10,000 invested in CSL shares 12 months ago is now worth…
• Why I’d buy CSL and Zip shares before they recover
• New to ASX shares? Avoid these 3 beginner mistakes
• 3 quality ASX shares I’d buy (that aren’t CBA or Wesfarmers)

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have been smashed.

The logistics software company is trading around $31.39, down almost 75% from its 52-week high of $121.31.

That is a huge fall for a company that was once one of the ASX’s most highly rated technology shares. It also raises a fair question: has the market gone too far?

I think it has.

The valuation has changed dramatically

WiseTech was once priced for a lot of success.

That made the shares vulnerable when sentiment turned. A high-growth stock can fall hard when investors become more cautious, and WiseTech has certainly felt that pressure.

But the current valuation now looks really interesting to me.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for earnings per share of 92.8 cents in FY26, $1.45 in FY27, and $2.19 in FY28.

At the current share price, that puts WiseTech on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 34 times FY26 earnings, 22 times FY27 earnings, and just over 14 times FY28 earnings.

That is the part that catches my attention.

A FY26 multiple in the 30s still requires growth. But if WiseTech gets anywhere near the FY28 consensus forecast, the valuation starts to look unusually low for a global software business with its market position.

A powerful role in global trade

The reason I still like WiseTech is the problem it solves.

Global trade is full of friction. Goods move through ports, warehouses, customs systems, carriers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters, and regulators. Every shipment can involve documents, time zones, compliance checks, pricing, tracking, and a long chain of handovers.

That is exactly the kind of environment where good software can become valuable.

WiseTech’s CargoWise platform helps logistics companies run more of that complexity through one system. The more deeply software is embedded in daily operations, the harder it can become to replace.

I also like the ambition of the company. WiseTech wants to be the operating system for global trade and logistics. That is a big goal, but it is also the kind of market where scale, product depth, compliance capability, and integration can matter enormously.

The company says it serves more than 22,000 logistics companies and other industry participants across 193 countries. It also notes that with the acquisition of e2open, its network has expanded to more than 500,000 connected enterprises across manufacturing, logistics, channels, and distribution.

That gives the business a large base from which to keep building.

What about the founder allegations?

There are also external matters investors will be aware of.

WiseTech recently responded to media commentary alleging an investigation into founder and Executive Chair Richard White, reportedly in a personal capacity. The company said there was no suggestion in the media commentary of an investigation into WiseTech. It also said it was not aware of any investigation as outlined in the article, and that Mr White had denied any involvement in or with human trafficking.

Those headlines are a concern and investors should not ignore governance or reputation risk.

But I think the key investment question remains the business itself. WiseTech’s customers, products, market position, and growth outlook are what should drive long-term value. If the company continues to execute, expand its platform, and grow earnings, I think the current share price could end up looking far too cheap.

Foolish takeaway

A share price fall of almost 75% can make investors nervous, and understandably so.

But WiseTech still operates in a large, complex, and increasingly digital market. Its software is used inside the daily machinery of global logistics, and consensus forecasts suggest earnings could grow strongly over the next few years.

There are plenty of risks to consider. Execution, acquisitions, valuation, governance, and market confidence all need watching. Even so, I think the current WiseTech share price offers patient investors a very attractive entry point.

For a business with this kind of global software opportunity, WiseTech shares look cheap to me.

The post Down almost 75%, are WiseTech shares really cheap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is the tech recovery finally here for Xero and Wisetech shares?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now
• Why Benz Mining, Collins Foods, WiseTech, and Xero shares are shooting higher today
• US chip stocks were smashed overnight. So why are ASX tech shares rising?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares staged another strong rebound on Thursday, rising 2% to $117.65.

That extends the company’s gain over the past month to roughly 20%, a welcome change for long-suffering shareholders.

But the bigger picture remains far less impressive.

Despite the recent rally, CSL shares are still down about 32% in 2026 and have plunged a remarkable 51% over the past 12 months.

Not long ago, CSL was considered one of the safest long-term holdings on the ASX. It built a reputation as a dependable compounder, consistently growing earnings and rewarding patient investors. These days, however, the healthcare giant seems to lurch from one setback to another.

So what happened?

CSL’s latest update exposed the challenges

CSL’s latest market update provided a timely reminder of why investors have become so cautious.

The company now expects FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of around US$3.1 billion, both on a constant currency basis.

At first glance, those numbers may not appear disastrous. Dig a little deeper, however, and several headwinds become clear.

The biggest issue remains CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin business in the US. Demand for immunoglobulin products continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit pace, which is broadly in line with management’s expectations. Unfortunately, investors in CSL shares won’t see the full benefit of that demand growth immediately.

CSL is normalising inventory levels across its distribution channels, which is expected to reduce reported revenue by approximately US$300 million.

Deteriorated prices

While CSL has successfully expanded its market share and stabilised sales volumes, pricing conditions have deteriorated. In other words, the company is selling more product but earning less from it. Management expects that dynamic to reduce revenue by roughly US$200 million.

The hits keep coming. CSL also flagged revenue impacts from conflict in the Middle East, slower-than-expected growth for gene therapy treatment HEMGENIX, and increasing competition in its iron business. Together, those factors are expected to shave another US$150 million from revenue.

As if that wasn’t enough, CSL expects to recognise around US$5 billion in impairment charges across FY26 and FY27. That’s the sort of figure that tends to make investors wince.

Still reasons for optimism

The update wasn’t entirely negative.

Management continues to forecast stronger revenue growth during the second half of FY26 for CSL Behring, supported by solid underlying demand, commercial execution, and benefits from ongoing operational improvement programs.

Meanwhile, vaccine business Seqirus is now expected to deliver a moderately stronger performance than previously anticipated.

Those positives help explain why the price of CSL shares has bounced from recent lows despite the disappointing headlines.

Is the CSL share price a buy?

Broker sentiment suggests analysts are not ready to give up on CSL shares just yet.

According to TradingView data, there have been 18 broker ratings on the stock over the past three months. Eight analysts rate CSL as a buy, while the remaining ten sit on the fence with hold recommendations.

The average price target stands at $141.53, implying potential upside of approximately 20% from current levels.

That suggests many analysts believe the worst may already be reflected in CSL’s battered valuation.

The post Once untouchable, now unloved: What’s up with CSL shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Down 54%: What should I do with my CSL shares now?
• Is this broker right about CSL shares?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have hit a rough patch after soaring to fresh record highs just last week.

The BHP share price has fallen around 11% since those highs and is down roughly 7% over the past five trading sessions. Despite the pullback, investors are still sitting on impressive gains. BHP shares remain up about 29% in 2026 and have surged approximately 62% over the past 12 months.

For comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained just 2% over the same 12-month period.

So, after a sharp sell-off, where do brokers see BHP shares heading next?

Why have BHP shares slumped?

The main catalyst behind the recent weakness of BHP shares was an update on the company’s massive Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Following a comprehensive review of costs and timelines for Jansen Stage 2, BHP revealed that the project will be significantly more expensive than previously expected.

The company now estimates Stage 2 will require an additional US$4.9 billion to US$5.4 billion beyond earlier forecasts. That comes on top of the original US$4.9 billion budget approved in October 2023.

The $300 billion ASX mining stock also announced it expects to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion relating to Jansen Stage 2 in its FY26 results.

The timeline has also slipped. First production from Stage 2 is now expected in FY2031, two years later than the previous target of 2029.

Little room for disappointment

Meanwhile, Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production in FY2027, although its cost estimate has also increased since the project was originally sanctioned. BHP has indicated it will provide a further update on Stage 1 costs and timing before 31 December 2026.

Importantly, this is not the first time Jansen’s projected costs have risen. Repeated budget revisions have increasingly tested investor confidence and raised questions about the reliability of management’s long-term project forecasts.

The market’s reaction may also reflect the strong run-up in BHP shares prior to the announcement. After climbing around 30% since the start of the year, expectations were high and there was little room for disappointment.

Some investors may also be locking in profits after the remarkable gains of BHP shares.

What do brokers forecast for BHP shares?

Despite the recent sell-off, analysts remain largely neutral on BHP’s prospects.

According to TradingView data, 13 of the 19 analysts covering BHP currently rate the stock as a hold. Four analysts have buy recommendations, while two rate the mining giant as either a sell or strong sell.

Among the more recent updates, DZ Bank upgraded BHP shares from sell to hold. The broker has an average price target of $65 per share, implying upside of around 11% from current levels.

The spread of analyst forecasts remains unusually wide.

The most optimistic analyst has a price target of $94.51, suggesting potential upside of about 61.5%. At the other end of the spectrum, the most bearish forecast sits at $40.97, suggesting downside of roughly 30%.

Foolish takeaway

That divergence highlights the key debate facing investors. On one hand, BHP continues to benefit from its world-class asset portfolio, substantial iron ore cash flows, and increasing exposure to copper, which could be crucial in the global energy transition. Potash also remains a potentially valuable long-term growth opportunity, even if the development timeline has stretched further into the future.

On the other hand, escalating project costs and execution risks at Jansen have introduced fresh uncertainty. For now, most brokers appear content to sit on the fence.

The post What’s next for BHP shares? Broker forecasts revealed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Corporate Travel Management updates investors on delayed FY25 results and UK remediation

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Brightstar Resources Ltd (ASX: BTR) is being overlooked by investors at the moment, according to the team at Shaw and Partners, which has tipped the emerging gold producer to more than triple in value as its projects come into production.

Projects already well-progressed

Shaw and Partners analysts said that, between the company’s Goldfields and the Sandstone projects, Brightstar has a “realistic path” to producing 275,000 ounces of gold per year from FY31.

The analysts said in a note to clients this week:

In our view, the market is heavily discounting BTR’s project delivery. However, we find both projects relatively low-risk, standard WA gold operations. Goldfields has already commenced construction with first gold due in JunQ’27. Sandstone may be early-stage but has permitting and technical advantages, plus considerable Resource upside potential. Market confidence could be aided with two Resource updates, a maiden Reserve, and prefeasibility study expected in 2H CY26.

Brightstar made a final investment decision to proceed with the Goldfields project in May, saying at the time it was fully funded through to first gold following the completion of a $193 million equity raising and a US$120 million bond financing.

The project was expected to produce about 75,000 ounces of gold per year over the initial six-year mine life, generating about $1 billion.

Brightstar Managing Director Alex Rovira said regarding the project:

Today’s Final Investment Decision is a landmark moment for Brightstar. With all key approvals now secured, funding in place and the EPC contract executed with GR Engineering, we are immediately moving into full construction of the 1.5Mtpa Laverton processing plant. It marks the first major step in our TARGET200 strategy to build a multi-asset Western Australian gold producer and advance our aspiration of being a Top 10 Australian Gold Producer. We are fully funded, highly motivated and focused on executing with discipline to deliver this transformative project on time and on budget whilst continuing to unlock further value across our Goldfields and Sandstone assets.

The Shaw and Partners team said the Goldfields project posed low technical risk and believed the mine would eventually produce one million ounces of gold.

They said that at an earlier stage of the Sandstone project, they expected production to peak at 200,000 ounces per year and that the gold resource could “materially increase” in the second half of this calendar year.

Shares looking cheap

The analysts added that, looking at peer group companies, a market capitalisation of $2 billion was reasonable.

Brightstar’s current market capitalisation is $323.9 million.

Shaw and Partners has a $1.15 price target on the company’s shares compared to 28 cents currently.

The post Looking for returns of greater than 250%? One broker has tipped this ASX gold stock to fly appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) is one of the most talked-about growth shares on the ASX, and it is easy to see why.

Drones are becoming a bigger issue for defence forces, governments, airports, prisons, and critical infrastructure operators. That is creating more demand for technology that can detect, track, and respond to drone threats.

Despite this, DroneShield shares have been on a poor run and are now down around 60% from their high.

That combination of a serious long-term security problem and a much lower share price is what makes the stock interesting to me.

Why the market is interested

The basic investment case is easy to understand.

Drones are becoming cheaper, smarter, and more widely used. They can be useful for commercial and civilian purposes, but they can also create serious security problems.

Military forces, airports, prisons, major events, government sites, and critical infrastructure owners all have reasons to detect and respond to drones that should not be there.

That gives DroneShield a large problem to address. Its technology is designed to help customers detect, identify, track, and respond to drone threats. I think that full chain is important. It is not enough to know that a drone is nearby. Customers need useful information quickly and response options that fit the situation.

This is where strong products, software, sensors, and integration can become valuable.

The opportunity is bigger than one contract

One mistake investors can make with small defence technology companies is focusing too heavily on the next contract announcement.

Contracts are important, of course. They provide revenue, credibility, and proof that customers are willing to pay.

But I think the bigger question for DroneShield is whether it can build a repeatable sales engine.

That means turning interest in counter-drone technology into ongoing demand across different regions, customers, and use cases. It also means developing software, services, upgrades, warranties, and support that can add more depth to the revenue base.

If DroneShield can become a trusted supplier rather than a one-off equipment provider, the investment case becomes much more interesting.

What needs to go right

DroneShield still has a lot to prove. It needs to keep winning meaningful contracts, deliver products on time, maintain technology leadership, manage production, and support customers properly.

It also needs to show that revenue growth can translate into attractive margins and cash flow generation over time.

That last point is important. A strong theme can lift a share price, but long-term value usually comes from earnings. Investors will eventually want evidence that demand is not only real, but profitable.

Competition is another factor. Defence technology attracts serious players, and government customers can be demanding. DroneShield needs to keep showing that its products are useful, reliable, and worth selecting.

Why I’d buy

I would treat DroneShield as a speculative ASX growth share, so position sizing would be important.

This is not the type of stock I would put in the same basket as a mature blue-chip share. But I think the pullback has made the risk/reward more attractive for investors who can accept volatility.

The company is operating in a market where demand could remain strong for years, especially as drones become more common in conflict zones and around sensitive infrastructure. If counter-drone systems become a standard part of defence and security spending, DroneShield could have a substantial runway.

The upside could be significant if management executes well.

Foolish takeaway

DroneShield is a high-risk ASX growth share, but I think it is also one of the more compelling technology stories on the market.

The company is addressing a problem that governments and security customers cannot ignore. That gives it a strong starting point, while the share price fall of more than 60% from its high has made the valuation more interesting.

I would still want to see continued contract momentum, improving revenue quality, and evidence that scale can lead to stronger earnings. But for investors with a higher risk tolerance, I think DroneShield shares are worth buying as a small, patient position.

The post Is DroneShield the ASX growth share investors should be buying? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.