Author: openjargon

The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price is trading around $37.20 on Tuesday.

At that level, I would not describe the big four bank as obviously cheap.

But I think there is enough on offer to make the shares attractive, particularly for investors looking for income.

A fair price for a major bank

According to CommSec, consensus estimates put ANZ’s earnings per share at $2.57 in FY26 and $2.55 in FY27.

That means the shares are trading on a PE ratio of around 14.5 times forecast earnings.

For me, that sits closer to fair value than bargain territory.

The earnings forecasts are also essentially flat, so I would not buy ANZ expecting rapid profit growth over the next couple of years.

But that does not make the investment unattractive.

ANZ remains one of Australia’s largest banks, with substantial operations across retail, business, and institutional banking. Its scale gives it access to a large customer and deposit base, while its business mix provides several sources of earnings.

I think paying a reasonable multiple for that kind of established banking franchise can still produce a worthwhile result over time.

Income is a bigger part of the case

The dividend is where ANZ becomes more interesting to me.

Consensus forecasts are for dividends of $1.66 per share in both FY26 and FY27.

At the current ANZ share price, that equates to a forward dividend yield of around 4.5%.

These payments are expected to be partially franked, rather than fully franked, so investors should keep that in mind when comparing ANZ with other Australian banks.

Still, I think the cash yield itself is attractive.

Further, the expected payment is comfortably below projected earnings per share. That gives me more confidence in the sustainability of its dividend than I would have if the bank were distributing nearly everything it earned.

Risks

There are risks to consider, of course. Competition remains intense in the banking sector, credit losses can rise if economic conditions deteriorate, and bank margins can move as interest rates and funding costs change.

Those considerations are another reason I would not call ANZ shares cheap at $37.20.

Foolish takeaway

I think the current ANZ share price offers fair value rather than an obvious bargain.

That is still enough for me to consider the shares a buy.

The near-term earnings outlook is subdued, but investors are getting exposure to a large banking franchise alongside a forecast dividend yield of around 4.5%.

For income-focused investors who are comfortable with relatively modest growth expectations, I think ANZ looks like a worthwhile option in September.

The post Is the ANZ share price good value in September? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 top ASX dividend shares to target in September 
• How much must I invest in ANZ shares to earn $1,000 in passive income in 2027?
• The 2 top yielding ASX 200 bank stocks revealed (Hint: Not CBA shares)
• Are ASX bank shares a buy in September?
• How much passive income can I earn off a $1 million superannuation balance?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) is one of the ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) I would be comfortable owning for a very long time.

It gives investors access to a huge collection of global businesses through one investment, while keeping the strategy simple.

For me, that makes the VGS ETF a strong buy and hold option.

Global exposure in one investment

The VGS ETF invests across major developed markets outside Australia.

That gives investors exposure to the US as well as countries across Europe and Asia, spreading the investment across a much larger part of the global economy.

I think that is particularly valuable for Australian investors.

The ASX has some excellent companies, but many major global industries are better represented overseas. Software, semiconductors, global consumer brands, healthcare, industrial technology, and digital services are all areas where international markets offer far more choice.

The VGS ETF opens the door to those opportunities without requiring investors to research companies across dozens of countries.

It does not depend on one winner

Another reason I like the VGS ETF is that the long-term result does not rest on getting a handful of stock picks right.

The fund owns a large collection of companies, and their importance within the portfolio can change as markets evolve.

Some of today’s biggest businesses may continue growing for decades. Others could eventually lose ground to companies that are much smaller today.

With the VGS ETF, investors do not need to know in advance which ones will come out on top.

I think that is a strong feature when your investment holding period could stretch across 10, 20, or even 30 years.

It can complement Australian shares

I would also consider the VGS ETF alongside Australian investments rather than viewing it as a replacement for them.

Many ASX portfolios naturally end up with significant exposure to banks, resources, and domestic businesses.

Adding the VGS ETF can introduce companies operating in industries and markets that are less prominent locally.

It also means the portfolio is not relying entirely on the Australian economy.

For investors who already pick individual ASX shares, I think this can be an easy way to add international diversification without building a separate overseas portfolio one company at a time.

Foolish takeaway

The VGS ETF gives me access to opportunities around the world without requiring constant decisions.

I could buy it today, add more money over time, and let the underlying portfolio change as global markets develop.

For investors looking for a simple international investment they can potentially hold for decades, I think the VGS ETF is a strong choice.

The post Why I think the VGS ETF is a strong buy and hold pick appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are these 2 top Vanguard ETFs still worth buying today?
• How to build an ASX portfolio you do not need to check every day
• 3 ASX ETFs to buy for simple investing
• VGS vs VHY: Which Vanguard ETF comes out on top?
• Why every Aussie investor should own one of these ASX ETFs

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Choosing ASX shares in September 2026 is always a tough proposition.

Reporting season finished yesterday.

During the past month, hundreds of companies updated guidance, brokers rewrote their models, and plenty of share prices moved a long way in a very short time.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 4% for the calendar year.

In that broader context, here are three names I would look at now.

Why these ASX shares stand out after reporting season

The market has become far more selective.

Results that beat guidance were rewarded, and anything short of that was sold hard almost instantly.

That has left expensive winners and heavily punished losers sitting side by side.

The three companies below are all at different places on that spectrum, which is exactly why I would own them together rather than individually.

1. CSL: a reset year, priced as though nothing improves

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) delivered the ugliest headline result of the season and one of the better share price reactions.

FY26 revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion, and impairments of US$7.1 billion drove a statutory loss of US$2.6 billion.

Underlying net profit after tax and amortisation still came in at US$3.1 billion.

Investors focused instead on FY27 guidance of roughly 5% underlying profit growth, comfortably ahead of the 2% consensus.

The shares finished last week at $172.32 and are up just 0.2% for the year.

Morgans analyst Damien Nguyen believes the downgrade cycle has finally ended.

In our view, the latest full year result in 2026 is generating confidence that repeated earnings downgrades are behind CSL.

Plasma collection remains a key moat, because a rival donor network takes years and huge quantities of capital to build.

A US$1 billion buyback suggests management shares that view.

2. BHP: the copper story is finally showing up

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is the momentum name of the three, and the most expensive.

FY26 attributable profit rose 9% to US$9.8 billion on revenue of US$58.8 billion.

Copper delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA, up 48%, and accounted for 54% of group earnings for the first time.

Net debt finished the year below US$9 billion.

The catch is the price.

Shares hit a record $68.77 last week and have since eased to about $66, still well above the average broker target of $58.68.

Income softens that somewhat.

BHP’s final fully franked dividend of 99 US cents per share goes ex on 3 September and is paid on 23 September.

3. Temple & Webster: the contrarian option

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) is, admittedly, the uncomfortable one to own.

The online furniture retailer’s shares are near $4.81 and are down roughly 80% over twelve months.

Yet FY26 revenue reached a record $664.6 million, up 10.6%, with EBITDA of $21.9 million.

Active customers grew 5% to 1.33 million, and cash stood at $123 million at 30 June.

Management is guiding to FY27 EBITDA of $33 million to $40 million, implying growth of 50% to 80%.

A soft start to FY27 explains much of the de-rating.

Canaccord Genuity is unconvinced by the sell-off and has a buy rating with a $9 price target, implying 89% upside.

This is comfortably the highest-risk idea on the list, and as a result it should be sized accordingly.

The risks with these ASX shares

Free money on the market doesn’t exist.

CSL still has to prove its FY27 guidance holds after several years of downgrades.

BHP trades above where most analysts think it belongs, and iron ore prices remain entirely outside its control.

Meanwhile, Temple & Webster is a discretionary retailer facing a stretched consumer and a possible interest rate rise on 29 September.

Foolish takeaway

These three ASX shares are deliberately different from one another.

CSL is a quality business emerging from a bad patch.

BHP is a cash machine at a full price.

Temple & Webster is a turnaround bet with a wide range of possible outcomes.

Owning all three would give you defensiveness, income and optionality in roughly equal measure.

For investors adding money this month, that mix of ASX shares strikes me as more sensible than backing a single theme.

The post Top 3 ASX shares to buy in September 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: South32, Mineral Resources, BHP shares
• CSL shares are up more than 40% in a month. What just happened in the US?
• 5 things reporting season taught ASX investors about FY27
• Want to bank the boosted BHP dividend? You’d better hurry!
• BHP shares are pulling back from a record high. What now for ASX investors?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, CSL, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a remarkable month for CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shareholders, and the stock is pushing higher again on Tuesday.

The CSL share price is up 2.09% to $175.15 at the time of writing, extending a rally that has driven the stock up more than 40% over the past month.

That recovery has wiped out most of its losses from earlier in the year, leaving CSL shares roughly flat in 2026.

So, what has investors looking at the stock again today?

CSL reaches deal with the US government

According to the release, CSL has reached two agreements with the Trump administration covering drug pricing and its manufacturing plans in the United States.

The first is with the US Department of Health and Human Services.

Under the deal, CSL will give the Medicaid program access to its medicines at prices comparable with those available in other developed countries.

It has also agreed to take a similar approach with any newly launched therapies across US payers.

The second agreement is with the US Department of Commerce and relates to CSL’s US$1.5 billion expansion in Kankakee, Illinois.

That project was first announced in April and is designed to increase the company’s capacity to produce plasma-derived therapies in the US.

CSL said the agreements give it “greater certainty regarding exposure to U.S. drug pricing and certain Section 232 tariffs”.

Despite the new arrangements, the company does not expect them to have any material financial impact in FY27.

Why this could be a relief for investors

US drug pricing has been one of the issues hanging over global pharmaceutical companies this year.

The agreement gives investors more clarity around how CSL will operate in its biggest market, while also tying in with its existing plan to increase US manufacturing.

And this announcement comes just after a difficult period for the company.

CSL reported a statutory net loss of US$2.58 billion in FY26 after recording major impairments, although underlying profit came in at US$3.1 billion.

Revenue increased 1% to US$15.8 billion, while management is targeting around 5% underlying profit growth in FY27.

The company has also been dealing with weaker US vaccination rates and softer sales in parts of its plasma business.

Has the rally gone too far?

After a move of more than 40% in just over a month, CSL shares have already come a long way from their July lows.

The stock was trading below $125 in late July and is now back above $175, which changes the conversation a little.

Yes, the latest US deal is another positive step, but a lot of the easy recovery has already happened.

From here, I think investors will be looking more closely at whether earnings can start doing some of the heavy lifting.

The post CSL shares are up more than 40% in a month. What just happened in the US? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Top 3 ASX shares to buy in September 2026
• 5 things reporting season taught ASX investors about FY27
• Where will CSL shares be in 12 months? Brokers weigh in
• Up 88%! Why CSL shares remain an ‘appealing’ buy today
• Experts name 2 ASX 200 blue chip shares to buy this week

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Reporting season ended on Monday, and the FY26 numbers are no longer the accountants’ problem.

Hundreds of ASX companies reported through August.

Guidance was revised, brokers rebuilt their models, and volatility impacted many ASX stocks.

Once the noise settles, a handful of lessons are worth carrying into FY27.

Here are the five that struck me most.

1. The outlook mattered more than the result

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) posted the ugliest headline of the month and one of the best share price reactions.

FY26 revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion and impairments of US$7.1 billion drove a statutory loss of US$2.6 billion, yet the shares rose 17.9% on the day anyway.

Investors ignored the write-downs entirely and focused on FY27 guidance of roughly 5% underlying profit growth, against a 2% consensus.

The lesson is simple enough: the market is pricing next year, not last year.

2. Costs are now the swing factor for miners

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) reported a record FY26 profit and still disappointed.

Underlying net profit after tax reached $1.8 billion on revenue of $7.6 billion.

The problem sat in FY27 guidance, which put all-in sustaining costs at $3,050 to $3,450 an ounce against $2,698 in FY26.

For a decade, the commodity price was the only variable that mattered for Australian miners.

That is no longer true, and cost guidance now moves share prices as much as spot prices do.

3. Cash flow separated reporting season’s winners from the headlines

Northern Star makes this point too.

A $1.8 billion underlying profit produced only $190 million of underlying free cash flow, because capital spending at the KCGM mine peaked during the year.

Plenty of companies reported record profits this reporting season while funding enormous capital programs.

For investors, the cash flow statement has become more and more important.

That is a healthy development, and I expect it to continue through FY27.

4. The income came from resources, not the banks

FY26 flipped the usual assumption about where dividends live.

Utilities shares paid an average yield of 5.98% across the year, with energy at 5.14% and materials at 4.63%, against an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) average of 4.23%.

Final dividends declared in August have followed the same pattern, and the largest payments this month are coming from energy and mining companies rather than financials.

Anyone building an income portfolio around the big four banks may want to reconsider their strategy in the short to medium term.

5. Growth was repriced, not abandoned

The harshest treatment this reporting season went to companies that grew but missed expectations.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) is down 58% over twelve months, and Objective Corporation Ltd (ASX: OCL) has fallen 69% to five-year lows.

Yet brokers still see upside of 52% and 33% respectively.

The market has not stopped believing in growth, but it has stopped paying extreme multiples for that growth, and that discipline is likely to persist.

What reporting season means heading into FY27

Two macro threads run underneath all five points.

The economy is slowing, which showed up in softer credit growth and weaker consumer spending across the results.

Inflation also remains stubborn, and Morgan Stanley now expects the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate when it meets on 29 September.

Neither is fatal, but both argue for owning businesses with strong pricing power and real cash generation.

Foolish takeaway

Reporting season is useful because it forces companies to be specific about what is driving their business.

Guidance, costs and cash flow are all much harder to spin than a headline profit number.

CSL showed that a terrible statutory result can still be a good investment case.

On the other hand, Northern Star showed that a record profit can still be a warning.

All in all, the investors who did best out of this reporting season were the ones reading the outlook statement rather than the press release.

The post 5 things reporting season taught ASX investors about FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX gold shares soared 34% in August. Is the run over?
• Top 3 ASX shares to buy in September 2026
• CSL shares are up more than 40% in a month. What just happened in the US?
• WiseTech shares enjoy best month in over a year. More to come?
• Where will CSL shares be in 12 months? Brokers weigh in

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Objective, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Objective and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The clock is ticking for passive income investors who want to bank – or reinvest – the upcoming BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) dividend.

In morning trade today, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant are trading for $66.23 apiece.

That sees the BHP share price up 55.1% since this time last year. And it doesn’t include the two fully franked BHP dividends the miner has paid (or shortly will pay) for FY 2026.

BHP currently trades on a 3.7% fully franked trailing dividend yield, or 5.2% grossed up if we factor in those franking credits.

How do I get the BHP dividend?

When BHP released its full year results on 18 August, the miner reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue to US$58.8 billion. And on the bottom line, BHP achieved a 30% increase in underlying profit to US$13.2 billion.

This saw management boost the final dividend to 99 US cents per share. The company said it won’t determine the precise Aussie dollar equivalent until “on or around 7 September”. But CommSec currently has it listed at AU$1.392 per share. That’s up more than 51% from last year’s final dividend.

Commenting on the dividend payout on the day, BHP CEO Brandon Craig said:

Alongside unlocking of capital from undervalued assets and investing in growth, net debt fell to below US$9 bn, while returning substantial cash to shareholders through a final dividend of 99 US cents per share…

This brings total cash returns to shareholders announced for the year to US$8.7 billion, which is US$1.72 per share fully franked, the highest in four years. Including this dividend, we will have returned more than US$115 billion to shareholders since the introduction of the CAF [capital allocation framework] in 2016.

If you want to bank the boosted dividend, you’ll need to own BHP shares at market close tomorrow, 2 September. The ASX 200 miner trades ex-dividend on Thursday. You can then expect to see that passive income hit your bank account on 23 September.

You can also make use of the company’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) to receive the payout as new BHP shares instead of cash.

Are BHP shares a good buy today?

Morgans’ Damien Nguyen recently issued a buy recommendation for BHP shares (courtesy of The Bull).

According to Nguyen:

BHP offers exposure to a portfolio of high-quality mining assets and remains well positioned to benefit from long term demand for copper and other critical minerals. A strong operating performance, healthy cash generation and a disciplined approach to capital allocation continue to support the investment case. While iron ore remains important, increasing copper exposure provides leverage to electrification and decarbonisation trends.

BHP appeals for potential capital growth, income and for diversified resources exposure. The company posted an attributable profit of US$9.8 billion in full year 2026, up 9% on the prior corresponding period. Revenue of US$58.8 billion was up 15%.

Nguyen also pointed to the boosted BHP dividend.

“BHP recently declared a final fully franked dividend of US 99 cents a share,” he noted.

The post Want to bank the boosted BHP dividend? You’d better hurry! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP shares are pulling back from a record high. What now for ASX investors?
• Are these 3 top Betashares ETFs a buy in September?
• After another big month, can BHP shares break through $70?
• BHP shares are pulling back from their record high. Is it time to sell?
• Chasing dividends? 11 ASX shares in top-paying sectors going ex-dividend this week

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 0.3% to 9,051.6 points on Tuesday.

Let’s check out some new ratings for ASX 200 shares this week.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

The Mineral Resources share price is $64.27, down 0.6% today and up 74% over 12 months. 

Bell Potter has a buy rating on this ASX 200 mining share. 

Analyst James Williamson said: 

MIN reported record FY26 underlying EBITDA of $2.6b (BPe $2.5b; VA cons. $2.5b) and underlying NPAT of $822m (BPe $774m; VA consensus $765m). Statutory NPAT was $1.2b (BPe $1.1b; VA cons. $966m) with $393m non-recurring items.

Completion of the US$765m MIN-POSCO lithium transaction will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with strong cash flows from iron ore and lithium operations.

MIN’s mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth.

The company is strongly positioned to execute its next phase of growth, having reinstated dividends.

Ansell Ltd (ASX: ANN)

The Ansell share price is $40.52, down 0.6% today and up 17% over 12 months. 

Morgans has a hold rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share. 

The broker said: 

FY26 result was strong, with adjusted EPS of US148.6c (+18%) at the top end of guidance, with adjusted EBIT of US$322m (+15% organic cc) above our forecast.

Importantly, 2H adjusted sales growth accelerated to 9.2%, with volumes improving providing some evidence that volume recovery is emerging.

While FY27 EPS guidance of US158-170c (6-14%) looks solid, the majority of gains comes from FX and buybacks rather than operating earnings, with sustainability of Healthcare growth and Industrial margins yet to be proven.

We increase FY27-28 EPS forecasts up to 5.9%, with our DCF/SOTP price target increasing to A$37.85.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price is $160.25, up 0.2% today and down 5% over 12 months. 

Remo Greco from Sanlam Private Wealth has a sell rating on this ASX 200 bank share. 

On The Bull this week, Greco said:   

This leading Australian bank posted cash net profit after tax of $10.982 billion in full year 2026, up 7 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

Revenue from ordinary activities of $30.153 billion was up 7 per cent. Investors are concerned about slowing housing credit growth.

Home loan applications fell about 15 per cent since the federal budget in May and the company’s full year result in August.

Mortgage competition remains elevated. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains until a clearer picture emerges about the state of Australia’s housing market, the outlook for interest rates and the broader outlook for credit growth moving forward.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Mineral Resources, Ansell, CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• The RBA could hike rates in September. Which ASX shares are most at risk?
• Are these 3 top Betashares ETFs a buy in September?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Are these 2 top Vanguard ETFs still worth buying today?
• Buy, hold, sell: Commonwealth Bank, Goodman Group, CSL shares

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX shares have spent 2026 climbing a wall of worry, and interest rates remain the tallest brick in it.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August, the central bank’s next decision is due on 29 September.

For the first time in this cycle, the debate is no longer about when rates fall, but whether they begin to rise again.

Why a September hike is suddenly plausible

The Reserve Bank has not been subtle about its bias.

In its August statement, the Board spelled out exactly what would happen if inflation misbehaves.

The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.

The data since has not helped its case for patience.

Annual headline inflation eased to 3.5% in July, but the trimmed mean measure the Board watches most closely came in higher at 3.6%.

Household spending rose 1.1% in the month and 7% across the year.

Morgan Stanley now expects a hike in September, although Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis is less convinced and sees November as the more likely date.

The ASX shares most exposed to higher rates

Not every sector feels a rate rise the same way.

Let’s focus on bank stocks.

Higher rates lift deposit costs, slow credit growth, and eventually show up in arrears.

Long-duration assets are the second group, because a higher discount rate reduces the present value of earnings that only arrive years from now.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is a good case study.

The shares closed last week at $157.25 and are down about 1% for the calendar year.

Morgans has a sell rating on the bank.

Analyst Damien Nguyen was blunt about the valuation:

Despite these headwinds, the stock trades at a significant premium to its peers and historical valuations.

A rate rise would not break CBA, but it would test a share price that has priced in near perfection.

Goodman Group and the duration problem

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) is another example of how rate hikes can impact ASX stocks.

The industrial property and data centre developer finished last week at $27.92, down roughly 10% for the year.

The company’s FY26 operating profit rose 15.7% to $2.675 billion, and work in progress reached $19.7 billion across 50 projects in twelve countries.

Occupancy held at 95.6%, and management is targeting 9% earnings per share growth in FY27.

The operating business is clearly performing.

But the unit price still struggles when bond yields rise, because a development pipeline stretching years into the future is worth less when money costs more.

That is the trade-off investors accept when they buy growth-heavy property exposure.

What this means for ASX shares more broadly

A single hike would not derail the market.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is still up 4% this calendar year and sits only a few percentage points below the record 9,296 points reached on 6 August.

Miners and healthcare names have carried much of that gain, and neither group is especially rate-sensitive.

The risk here is concentrated rather than general.

Foolish takeaway

I do not think investors should rebuild an entire portfolio around one meeting.

The Reserve Bank may well hold again, and Ellis makes a reasonable case that November is the more likely month.

But it is worth knowing which of your ASX shares you own for their yield today, and which you own for earnings that only arrive in 2030.

Those two groups behave very differently when the cash rate moves higher.

A September hike would be uncomfortable for banks and long-duration property, and largely irrelevant for a good deal of the rest of the market.

The post The RBA could hike rates in September. Which ASX shares are most at risk? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Mineral Resources, Ansell, CBA shares
• Are these 3 top Betashares ETFs a buy in September?
• Are these 2 top Vanguard ETFs still worth buying today?
• Buy, hold, sell: Commonwealth Bank, Goodman Group, CSL shares
• The 2 top yielding ASX 200 bank stocks revealed (Hint: Not CBA shares)

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A number of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares could open lower on Tuesday, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything has gone wrong.

9 ASX 200 companies are trading ex-dividend today, which means anyone buying the shares from this point won’t receive the latest dividend.

This can often lead to the share price dropping by roughly the value of the dividend. But keep in mind that other market movements can still push the shares higher or lower on the day.

According to The Australian, the combined ex-dividend moves are expected to shave around 6 points from the ASX 200 today.

So, which shares should investors be watching?

The ex-dividend moves to watch today

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares finished Monday at $17.70 and are trading ex-dividend for a fully franked 46 cents per share payout.

The dividend is due to be paid on 29 September.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares closed at $79.44 and are going ex-dividend for a fully franked $1.20 per share dividend, with payment scheduled for 7 October.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares ended Monday at $40.31. The supermarket giant is trading ex-dividend for a fully franked 52 cents per share, payable on 25 September.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) is another one to watch. Its shares closed at $10.73 and are going ex-dividend for a fully franked 33 cents per share payout, due on 30 September.

Five more ASX 200 shares join the list

Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR) shares finished Monday at $10.22 and are trading ex-dividend for an unfranked 25 cents per share dividend. Payment is due on 30 September.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) shares closed at $3.14. Its latest dividend is much smaller at 1.2 cents per share, fully franked, and will be paid on 1 October.

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares ended Monday at $20.86 and are trading ex-dividend for an unfranked 32.5 cents per share payout, due on 30 November.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) shares closed at $8.98. Its fully franked 25.5 cents per share dividend is going ex-dividend today and is scheduled to be paid on 16 September.

Finally, Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) shares finished Monday at $46.97 and are going ex-dividend for a fully franked 29 cents per share payout, also due on 16 September.

What should investors expect today?

The main thing to note is that any early weakness in these shares may simply reflect the dividend coming out of the share price.

So, if any of these 9 ASX 200 shares open lower today, I wouldn’t read too much into the move straight away.

The post Don’t panic if these 9 ASX 200 shares fall today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• By September 2027, $5,000 invested in Macquarie shares could turn into…
• Buy, hold, sell: Boss Energy, Magellan, and NextDC shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 3 top ASX dividend shares to target in September 
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $90,000 per year in passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP shares are pulling back from a record high, and after the year shareholders have enjoyed, a breather was probably overdue.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) closed on Monday at $66.23, down from an all-time high of $68.77 last week.

That still leaves Australia’s largest listed company up roughly 44% in 2026 and close to 56% over the past twelve months.

With such strong results, is there space left for BHP shares to go further?

How the FY26 results impacted BHP shares

BHP handed down its full-year result in late August, and the numbers are behind much of the recent share price strength.

Attributable profit came in at US$9.8 billion, up 9% on the prior year. Revenue rose 15% to US$58.8 billion.

Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation landed at roughly US$33 billion, while net debt finished the year below US$9 billion.

The results become interesting when we look at the split between BHP’s divisions.

Copper contributed US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA, a 48% increase, and accounted for 54% of group earnings.

That is the first time copper has out-earned iron ore across a full financial year.

BHP produced around 2 million tonnes of copper for a second consecutive year, and it is now targeting roughly 40% production growth by FY35 through projects in Australia, Chile and Argentina.

Why brokers are cautious on BHP shares

Here is the awkward part.

The share price has run well past where most analysts think it should sit.

Consensus data puts the average twelve-month target at $58.68 across 14 analysts, roughly 10% below the current price.

There is one buy rating, twelve holds and a single sell.

Morgan Stanley is the most positive at $67.50, while Morgans sits at $55.30 and Deutsche Bank at $51.

Not everyone is bearish.

Morgans analyst Damien Nguyen still sees a clear case for owning the miner:

BHP offers exposure to a portfolio of high quality mining assets and remains well positioned to benefit from long term demand for copper and other critical minerals.

The stock trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of a little over 24, which is expensive by its own historical standards.

The dividend, and the September question

Income investors have a decision to make this week.

BHP declared a final fully franked dividend of 99 US cents per share, or about A$1.392.

The shares trade ex-dividend on Thursday 3 September, with payment due on 23 September.

Together with the interim payment, that takes FY26 distributions to $2.431 per share and the fully franked yield to about 3.7%.

There is also a seasonal wrinkle worth knowing about.

September has historically been the weakest month of the year for the Australian market, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) averaging a 0.94% decline since 1992 and finishing higher only 32% of the time.

Foolish takeaway

I would not chase BHP shares at this level, but I would be equally reluctant to sell them.

The valuation is full, the broker targets sit below the share price, and this month being September could be a bad omen.

Against that, the copper transition is BHP’s next growth lever, the balance sheet is in good shape, and the cash keeps arriving.

Owning a world-class asset base at a fair price has usually worked out better than trying to time the last 10% of a rally.

As such, for long-term holders, BHP shares still look like a business worth owning rather than a trade worth exiting.

The post BHP shares are pulling back from a record high. What now for ASX investors? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Want to bank the boosted BHP dividend? You’d better hurry!
• Are these 3 top Betashares ETFs a buy in September?
• After another big month, can BHP shares break through $70?
• BHP shares are pulling back from their record high. Is it time to sell?
• Chasing dividends? 11 ASX shares in top-paying sectors going ex-dividend this week

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.