Author: openjargon

Gold trades near record highs, and Australia’s two largest ASX-listed gold miners are riding the wave. 

Here is why the story may not be over yet.

Gold hit US$5,417 per ounce in January 2026, a new all-time high, before pulling back amid rising inflation expectations and interest rate uncertainty. 

Today, the yellow metal trades around US$4,730 per ounce, still well above the levels at which Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) can generate substantial free cash flow. 

With several structural tailwinds still intact, the bull case for both stocks remains interesting.

What is driving the gold price

Central bank buying remains robust, with approximately 70% of central banks surveyed at a recent Goldman Sachs conference expecting global gold reserves to rise in 2026. 

Geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, combined with ongoing concerns about Western fiscal sustainability, continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Ian Samson, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said:

We continue to expect gold to rally in 2026, as the drivers of its strong run remain intact.

Global X forecasts the gold price to hit US$5,000 per ounce in 2026, with the potential to reach US$6,000 if global equity markets deteriorate or geopolitical tensions escalate further.

Evolution Mining

Evolution Mining hit an all-time high share price of $17.75 on 2 March 2026, before pulling back to trade around $13.20 today. 

The company operates six mines across Australia and Canada, generating EBITDA margins above 50% at current gold prices. 

Evolution recently declared a fully-franked dividend of 20 cents per share and has paid fully-franked dividends consistently since August 2017.

Northern Star Resources

Northern Star paid a record fully-franked final dividend of 30 cents per share in September 2025 and an interim dividend of 25 cents in March 2026, both driven by the surging gold price. 

The stock has more recently come under pressure following a profit warning tied to higher operating costs, which sent shares sharply lower. 

For investors with conviction on the gold price outlook, that pullback could represent a more attractive entry point.

Foolish Takeaway

Gold miners carry operational risk, cost inflation risk, and significant sensitivity to the gold price itself. 

But with gold supported by persistent central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and a structurally weaker US dollar, Evolution Mining and Northern Star both offer compelling ways to participate in the theme for patient, risk-aware investors.

The post Why ASX gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star could keep shining in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you have a high tolerance for risk, then Bell Potter thinks it could be worth considering the ASX biotech stock in this article.

In fact, if everything goes to plan, the broker believes this speculative stock could more than double in value over the next 12 months.

Which ASX biotech stock?

The stock in question is Imugene Ltd (ASX: IMU). It is a drug developer specialising in the development of new agents for various cancer indications.

Bell Potter notes that the company has a history of in-licensing early-stage assets, typically pre-clinical or with phase 1 data, and progressing their development.

Consequently, it points out that the risk of failure is probably high, however “the future financial benefit from development of a new chemical entity for the treatment of disease are immense.”

Bell Potter has been speaking to a leading haematological oncologist in relation to the ASX biotech stock’s Azer-cel product. The good news is that the oncologist has spoken positively about its potential. The broker explains:

Our recent discussion with a leading Haematological Oncologist regarding IMU’s Azer-cel has provided significant assurance regarding its potential in the treatment landscape for both common and rare forms of Non Hodgkins Lymphoma (NHL).

The broker also highlights that recent trial data has been encouraging. It adds:

The CAR-T naïve patient group continues to enrol and early signs of efficacy are highly encouraging. Hi[gh] risk Mantle Cell Lymphoma patients typically fail quickly on first and second line therapies including BTKi. These patients are particularly well suited to Azer-cel where healthier donor T-cells provide potentially superior in vivo expansion versus patient-derived cells in this setting. The company continues to enrol patients in this cohort where the off the shelf solution remains a major attraction of oncologists who otherwise have few treatment options.

Big potential returns

According to the note, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and 25 cents price target on the ASX biotech stock.

Based on its current share price of 9.3 cents, this implies potential upside of almost 170%.

Commenting on its recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Azer-cel remains an outstanding alternative for the treatment of NHL. The next catalyst is the median DoR data in the DLBCL population (n=17) and further interim data from the CAR-T naïve group and BTKi concurrent combination. Valuation and earnings are unchanged.

The post Guess which ASX biotech stock could rise over 150% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These two ASX financial services companies could both jump more than 50% Shaw and Partners says
• Down 30%: Is this ASX 200 stock a buy after its crash?
• This ASX tech stock has exploded 75% in a month, but can it climb higher?
• This ASX mining stock tipped to rise 50% could make a profit of $250m in 2028
• The average superannuation balance at age 53 in Australia, versus what you need to retire comfortably

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This year has delivered plenty of volatility for investors in ASX shares.

But sharp market sell-offs can also create rare opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at far more attractive valuations.

After suffering heavy declines over the past 12 months, these two ASX shares still look well-positioned for long-term growth over the next decade and beyond.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

When it comes to dominant Australian digital platforms, REA Group remains one of the market’s highest-quality businesses.

The $22 billion ASX share sits right at the centre of Australia’s property market through realestate.com.au, giving it a powerful competitive advantage that is incredibly difficult to replicate. Real estate agents need visibility to attract buyers and vendors and REA controls much of that online traffic.

That market dominance has allowed the company to steadily raise prices over time through premium listings, depth products, and advertising services, even during softer housing cycles.

Importantly, it is also an exceptionally scalable business model. Because the platform is digital, incremental revenue tends to flow through to earnings at very attractive margins.

Even amid a difficult share price period, the business itself continues performing strongly. Last week, REA reported revenue from core operations of $398 million for the three months ended 31 March, up 11% from the prior corresponding period. After adjusting for mergers and acquisitions, revenue still increased 6%.

The earnings result was similarly solid. EBITDA excluding associates climbed 11% to $220 million, while operating expenses increased only 5% to $178 million.

Despite those numbers, the ASX share fell another 6% on Thursday and are now down roughly 35% over the past year.

That disconnect between operational performance and share price weakness is exactly what long-term investors often look for.

Broker sentiment also remains supportive. Morgans said it was impressed with the company’s strong yield outcome and operating cost guidance. The broker retained its buy rating while slightly trimming its price target to $219, suggesting a 37% upside at the current share price.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

Another beaten-down ASX growth share catching attention is Pro Medicus.

The healthcare technology company has built a world-class reputation for securing major hospital imaging contracts across the United States. Its Visage imaging platform becomes deeply integrated into hospital radiology workflows, creating powerful switching costs and sticky recurring revenue streams.

That business model continues delivering exceptional financial results. In its HY26 result, Pro Medicus reported revenue growth of 28.4% to $124.8 million, while underlying profit before tax surged almost 30%. Those are elite growth numbers by almost any standard.

Yet despite the strong operational momentum, Pro Medicus shares have been heavily sold off alongside the broader healthcare sector. The ASX share is now down 55% over 12 months and was trading around $121.60 at the time of writing.

For long-term investors, that weakness may present an attractive opportunity. Healthcare imaging demand continues rising globally, while hospitals increasingly require faster and more efficient digital imaging systems. Pro Medicus appears well-positioned to benefit from those long-term structural trends.

Analysts also remain optimistic on the ASX share. Morgan Stanley currently maintains a buy rating on the stock with a $200 price target. That implies potential upside of roughly 65% from current levels.

The post 2 beaten-down ASX shares to hold until 2036 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 amazing ASX growth shares to buy and hold forever
• ASX tech shares vs. ATEC ETF: How they fared during sector downturn
• 9 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy calls from the experts this week
• Why Pro Medicus shares could still have their best years ahead
• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Macquarie, and REA Group shares

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price is in focus today after the company’s April 2026 monthly report revealed strong growth in retail sales and demand, along with increased national hydro storage.

What did Meridian Energy report?

• National hydro storage rose to 119% of the historic average by 11 May 2026 (up from 106% a month earlier).
• South Island hydro storage reached 109% and North Island storage surged to 201% of average by the same date.
• April retail sales volumes were 8.2% higher than April 2025, led by a 25% lift in residential sales.
• Meridian’s total electricity generation for April was 1,009 GWh, up 13.5% on last year, reflecting strong hydro conditions.
• National electricity demand in April was up 3.7% on the prior year; demand excluding NZ Aluminium Smelters rose 2.6%.
• Average price received for generation in April was $100.50/MWh, significantly lower than April 2025’s $332.30/MWh.

What else do investors need to know?

April’s bumper rainfall in the North Island and healthy inflows in the South Island boosted hydro storage across the country. Meridian’s Waitaki catchment ended April at 106% of average storage, while Waiau reached 91%.

Retail customer connections dipped by 1.1% in April, but still grew 15.7% over the year. Retail segment sales outpaced 2025 levels for every major customer group, with business and agricultural segments both seeing solid growth.

On the wholesale market, ASX forward electricity prices continued to fall, likely reflecting strong renewable investment and improved system security from Huntly agreements.

What’s next for Meridian Energy?

Management is staying focused on capitalising on strong hydro conditions as New Zealand moves into winter, traditionally a period of higher demand. Meridian is also watching market dynamics as increased renewable generation investment and strong storage keep prices subdued, which could impact earnings going forward.

Weekly updates on lake levels and further operating developments can be found on the company’s website, giving investors timely visibility as conditions evolve.

Meridian Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Meridian Energy shares have declined 8%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Meridian Energy’s April retail sales and hydro storage climb in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 slips as weakness spreads across the board
• Worley unveils new growth strategy and $300m buyback at Investor Day
• GrainCorp shares: 1H26 profit drops but guidance stands

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Buying and holding forever sets a high bar. It means looking past the next result and focusing on businesses that have the potential to keep getting larger, stronger, and more valuable over many years.

That does not mean share prices will rise in a straight line. They never do. But the right companies can use time to their advantage.

Here are three amazing ASX growth shares that could fit that mould.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

Lovisa has turned a simple retail concept into a global rollout story.

The company sells affordable fashion jewellery through a store model that can be replicated across many markets.

Its appeal is the combination of global store growth and disciplined retailing. The business has already shown that its model can travel, and there are still large markets where its presence remains relatively small.

Fashion retail is not without risk. Consumer spending can soften and trends can shift. But Lovisa has a track record of moving quickly, keeping its ranges fresh, and maintaining a clear customer proposition.

If management continues to execute on its international expansion, this could be an ASX share with a very long runway for growth.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

Pro Medicus is one of the rare ASX technology companies that has built a world-class niche.

Its Visage platform helps hospitals manage and view medical images with speed and efficiency. That matters because medical imaging is becoming more data-heavy, while health systems are under pressure to improve productivity.

This ASX growth share is solving a real problem. Radiologists, who are in short supply, are dealing with larger scan files, rising workloads, and growing demand for faster results. Visage helps address this by making imaging workflows more efficient.

Pro Medicus has built a strong position in the United States, where major hospital networks can sign long-term contracts and expand usage over time. Once embedded, the software becomes a critical part of clinical operations.

Its valuation is often demanding, but the business quality is hard to ignore. With healthcare data volumes continuing to grow, Pro Medicus arguably remains one of the ASX’s most compelling long-term growth stories.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Xero is building around one of the most important workflows for small businesses: money.

Its cloud platform helps businesses manage accounting, payroll, invoicing, payments, and financial information. Once a business is running on Xero, the software can become deeply embedded in daily operations.

That creates a powerful base for long-term growth. Xero can add more customers, expand in larger markets, and increase the value of each subscriber by adding new services.

The company’s opportunity in the United States remains particularly important. It is a large market, and Xero’s position there is still much smaller than in Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.

The good news is that recent updates show that Xero is gaining traction there. If it can build on this, then the future could be very bright for this ASX growth share.

The post 3 amazing ASX growth shares to buy and hold forever appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX tech shares vs. ATEC ETF: How they fared during sector downturn
• 3 reasons I would buy Xero shares following its results
• Why Bapcor, Coles, Graincorp, and Xero shares are tumbling today
• Why Megaport shares and Xero shares are making big moves on Thursday
• Why Xero shares are falling despite a big jump in revenue

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Lovisa, Pro Medicus, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of ASX gold stocks out there for Aussie investors to choose from.

One of the best, according to Bell Potter, could be Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6).

Let’s see what the broker is saying about this gold developer.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter notes that the ASX gold stock has announced binding agreements with Geko Explore to secure joint venture interests across approximately 350km2 of highly prospective tenure. These are contiguous with its 4.5Moz Bullabulling Gold Project in Western Australia.

Commenting on the deal, Bell Potter said:

The tenements cover areas that are highly prospective for strike extensions to the Kraken deposit at the south end of the Bullabulling Resource and the Dicksons deposit at the north end. The new tenements also cover areas for potential additional process water sources to support development and operations. MI6’s tenement holdings now lift to 1,160km2, positioning MI6 as the dominant landholder in the region and in control of the Bullabulling Fault.

The broker was pleased with the news and highlights that it pins down ground that is highly prospective. It said:

This deal further secures MI6’s landholding around Bullabulling and pins down ground that is highly prospective for Resource extensions to known deposits. Not having some of this ground could potentially compromise exploration strategy and securing it at an early stage from a well-funded position makes good strategic sense, in our view.

As well as additional process water sources, the increased footprint provides greater optionality for locating mine infrastructure. In considering the valuation, even a modest potential Resource (say 300koz) implies a A$40/oz acquisition cost (70% interest basis) which, with the positives outlined above, represents good value, in our view.

Should you invest in this ASX gold stock?

According to the note, in response to this update, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $1.35 price target on the gold developer’s shares.

Based on its current share price of 91 cents, this implies potential upside of almost 50% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

MI6 offers gold exposure via the 4.5Moz Bullabulling Resource, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production. It holds ~$250m cash, sufficient to fund to Final Investment Decision (FID) in early CY27, long-lead items and early site works. We retain our $1.35/sh Valuation and Speculative Buy recommendation.

The post Guess which ASX gold stock could rise 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Codan, Medallion, Megaport, and Mineral 260 shares are storming higher today
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• Buy, hold, or sell? Minerals 260, Atlas Arteria, Super Retail shares
• Why Brainchip, Minerals 260, Nuix, and Weebit Nano shares are racing higher today
• Buy, hold, sell: Minerals 260, 4DMedical, Karoon Energy shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares experienced their biggest one-day fall since listing in 1991 this week.

The CBA share price fell 10.2% after the bank released its 3Q FY26 update on Wednesday.

Yesterday, CBA shares recovered just 1.8% of that loss, closing at $156.42 apiece.

Does this present an opportunity to buy the dip?

Let’s find out.

What happened to CBA shares this week?

CBA shares plummeted on Wednesday after the bank reported an unaudited cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.7 billion.

That was 1% lower than the quarterly average for 1H FY26.

The bank also revealed it had increased its bad debt provisions by $200 million due to greater geopolitical and economic risks.

CBA CEO Matt Comyn said:

We are closely monitoring the impacts of the Middle East conflict and the broader macroeconomic environment.

The Australian economy continues to demonstrate resilience, but supply chain disruptions, higher prices and interest rates are expected to weigh on household spending and business activity.

CBA’s fall was large enough for the bank to lose its No. 1 position in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) to BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

At the market close yesterday, BHP had a market capitalisation of $312.6 billion compared to CBA shares at $257.16 billion.

Property investment tax changes

CBA shares investors were not only perturbed by CBA’s quarterly result.

There is also now greater fear that growth in home lending could deteriorate, not only due to rising interest rates, but also substantial changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) announced in the Federal Budget on Tuesday.

Negative gearing and the 50% discount on CGT for investments held for 12 months or more has long been blamed for incentivising investors into the residential property market.

This has raised competition and reduced affordability for first home buyers, with Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers citing a more than 400% increase in house prices since the 50% CGT discount replaced inflation‑adjusted indexation in 1999.

Jarden analyst Matthew Wilson expects the tax changes to reduced housing credit growth by 25%.

That’s a big problem for the banks because they’re highly leveraged to the residential market, which is the second most expensive in the world (behind Hong Kong).

However, CBA is the most exposed because it has the largest investor loan book.

Wilson told Capital Brief:

Investors have been a very lucrative part of home loan growth for the banks with interest-only loans having wider spread, typically better asset quality through time, and therefore higher return on equity.

Jarden maintained its sell rating and a 12-month price target of $90 on CBA shares this week.

This suggests a potential 42% downside ahead.

What do other brokers think?

Morgan Stanley also discussed the risk to home lending and a slowdown in deposit growth already underway in a note this week.

The broker said there were early signs that mortgage and household deposit growth among the major banks was moderating from the strong levels of 2025.

The broker said:

We believe RBA rate hikes and higher fuel prices increase the probability that a slowdown takes hold in coming month.

Morgan Stanley said annualised home loan growth among the major banks averaged 3.7% in February.

The broker said deposit growth averaged 3.3% compared to more than 8% in 2024 and 2025.

Morgan Stanley retained its sell rating on CBA shares and shaved its price target from $131 to $130 this week.

UBS also has a target of $130 and also retained its sell rating on CBA shares. The target implies a potential 17% downside ahead.

Morgans also recommends that investors sell CBA shares. Its price target is $119.40, implying a 24% downside.

In a note, the broker said:

3Q26 earnings were below 1H26 growth expectations, both before and after the impact of topping up loan loss provisions.

Even after today’s c.10% sell-off, CBA’s valuation metrics remain extended and don’t provide a sufficient margin of safety.

Macquarie also kept its sell rating in place and cut its 12-month price target by 2.6% to $114.

Citi and Jefferies also reiterated their sell ratings on CBA shares this week.

However, the brokers have more optimistic price targets of $140 and $142.26, respectively.

The post Should you buy the dip on CBA shares? Here’s what the experts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why is everyone selling CBA shares?
• Buy, hold, sell: COG Financial Services, Macquarie, CBA shares
• The CBA share price crash was an accident waiting to happen. Here’s why
• Buy, hold, sell: CBA, Life360, and Macquarie shares
• Are CBA shares a buy after the latest sell-off?

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT) shares could be a top pick in the tech sector.

That’s the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who are recommending the ASX tech stock ahead of its results next week.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter believes that Catapult will release a strong update next week and sees potential for stronger than expected earnings. It said:

Catapult will report its FY26 result next Wednesday, 20th May and we expect a result consistent with the trading update provided in late March if not slightly better. The one figure where we see some upside risk is management EBITDA where the guidance is growth of approximately 50% which implies a figure of c.US$22.9m and we forecast US$23.0m whereas consensus appears to be only around US$22.4m.

The other key metrics we expect to be consistent with the guidance of ACV b/w US133-134m (vs BPe US$133.6m), free cash flow excluding transaction costs b/w US$5-6m (vs BPe US$5.6m) and Rule of 40 >33% (vs BPe 44%/34% including/excluding IMPECT on a constant currency basis).

Bell Potter notes that the tech stock has provided the same guidance for two years running. The broker believes it will be more of the same with this update. It adds:

Catapult has provided the same guidance the last two years: ACV growth to remain strong with low churn; continued improvement in cost margins towards targets; and higher free cash flow as the business scales. We expect the same guidance to be provided again for FY27 and our forecasts are already generally consistent with that: ACV growth of 15% to US$153m and management EBITDA margin to increase from 16.7% in FY26 to 20.4% in FY27.

ASX tech stock tipped to rise

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX tech stock with a trimmed price target of $4.50 (from $4.75).

Based on its current share price of $3.10, this implies potential upside of 45% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

We have lowered the multiple we apply in the EV/EBITDA valuation from 27.5x to 25x and increased the WACC we apply in the DCF from 8.6% to 8.8% due to the continued weakness in the tech sector.

Catapult remains our key pick in the tech sector amongst mid cap stocks outside the S&P/ASX 100 index. We see little risk of AI disruption for the stock given its extensive proprietary data, multiple product platform and the hardware component to its solutions.

The post Bell Potter says this rapidly growing ASX tech stock could rise 45% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 3 super ASX tech stocks I’d buy in May with $3,000
• After declining nearly 50% in 6 months, has this ASX tech stock finally turned the corner?
• These 2 ASX All Ords shares are flying higher today, and tipped to jump another 70%
• 2 top ASX shares down over 50% to buy now

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have gone from market darling to deep-value debate in just a year.

The ASX software giant is now down around 65% over the past 12 months and roughly 46% year-to-date, sitting only marginally above its 52-week low.

At a market capitalisation of about $13 billion, investors are now asking a blunt question: how much further can WiseTech shares fall?

CargoWise remains central to global trade

WiseTech is best known for its flagship platform CargoWise, a logistics execution system used across the global supply chain industry.

This is not lightweight software. CargoWise is deeply embedded into mission-critical workflows including freight forwarding, customs compliance, shipping documentation, routing, and global trade processing.

Once integrated, systems like this are notoriously difficult and expensive to replace. That creates high switching costs, strong customer retention, and long-term recurring revenue visibility, typically the hallmarks of high-quality software businesses.

Why the market has turned cautious

Despite those fundamentals, investors in WiseTech shares have become increasingly uneasy.

Concerns have built around valuation compression following years of strong performance, as well as perceived risks tied to WiseTech’s acquisition-heavy growth strategy.

Broader macro factors have also weighed on sentiment, including global trade uncertainty and fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt parts of enterprise software over time.

On top of that, ongoing board-related issues have contributed to volatility and shaken investor confidence.

Geopolitical tensions have added another layer of complexity. Disruptions linked to global shipping routes — including risks around the Strait of Hormuz — have created uncertainty for freight flows and trade volumes.

However, these pressures appear cyclical rather than structural. Global trade may fluctuate, but it is not disappearing.

Massive long-term opportunity still in play

Despite the sharp decline of WiseTech shares, the company continues to highlight a large long-term opportunity.

At its recent Macquarie Australia Conference presentation, the company reiterated that CargoWise is targeting an addressable logistics market exceeding US$11 trillion.

Beyond its core platform, WiseTech is also expanding into adjacent areas such as TradeWise, trade finance, customs systems, border management, and digital identity verification.

In other words, the company is still building out a broader global trade ecosystem.

Guidance remains steady, margins remain elite

Importantly, WiseTech has not downgraded its outlook.

The company continues to guide for FY26 revenue between US$1.39 billion and US$1.44 billion, alongside EBITDA of US$550 million to US$585 million. That implies EBITDA margins of around 40% to 41%, an elite level for enterprise software.

That margin strength helps explain why WiseTech shares historically traded on premium valuations.

Management is also leaning heavily into artificial intelligence, aiming to improve productivity, reduce labour intensity, and enhance platform capabilities across CargoWise.

What analysts are saying

Broker sentiment remains surprisingly constructive despite the collapse.

TradingView data shows 15 of 17 analysts rate the stock as a buy or strong buy, with the average price target sitting at $73.47 — more than double current levels.

At the bullish end, some forecasts imply upside of more than 200%. Bell Potter recently maintained its buy rating with a $78.75 price target.

The post WiseTech shares crash 65% — is the bottom near? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX tech shares vs. ATEC ETF: How they fared during sector downturn
• What on earth’s going on with WiseTech shares?
• Why Amotiv, DroneShield, Life360, and WiseTech shares are tumbling today
• Why is everyone talking about WiseTech, GQG and Life360 shares on Tuesday?
• 1 smashed-up ASX share I’d buy before it rebounds

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) have had an absolute shocker this week.

Actually, scratch that. It has been a rough month and an even tougher year.

CBA shares have now plunged 12% over the past five trading days, fallen 16% in the past month, and are sitting more than 7% lower than this time last year.

That is a brutal reversal for what had long been considered the market’s untouchable blue-chip bank stock.

So why is everyone suddenly rushing for the exits?

Painful double whammy

On Wednesday, CBA shares suffered one of the sharpest single-day falls in the bank’s history after getting hit by a painful double whammy.

The first blow came from Tuesday night’s Federal Budget. Investors appear increasingly concerned the government’s housing policy changes could pressure the property market and, in turn, hurt major ASX banks like CBA.

The abolition of negative gearing and tighter capital gains tax settings don’t exactly scream “housing boom”. If property prices soften, it could eventually flow through to slower mortgage growth, weaker lending activity, and rising credit risk for the banks.

Bracing for tougher times

But the budget alone wasn’t enough to spark such a savage sell-off. The second hit came from CBA’s own quarterly update released Wednesday morning.

At first glance, the numbers looked reasonably solid. Operating income was flat over the three months to 31 March, while cash profit still managed to rise 4% compared to the previous quarter.

However, investors in CBA shares seemed far more focused on what management said about the future.

CBA warned that economic and geopolitical risks are increasing. More importantly, it backed up that caution by lifting its collective provisions for loan impairment by $200 million. That followed another $316 million in loan impairments during the quarter itself.

In other words, the bank is preparing for a potentially tougher environment ahead and the market clearly did not like the signal.

Limited growth pathway

But there is another reason this sell-off may have become so violent.

CBA shares were arguably primed for a correction long before this week’s drama unfolded.

There is no denying CBA is one of Australia’s highest-quality businesses. It dominates the local banking sector, has a powerful brand, and continues generating enormous profits. But it’s also a mature bank operating in a highly competitive market with limited long-term growth avenues.

Yet even after the recent plunge, CBA still trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 25. That remains dramatically more expensive than rivals like National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), which currently trades closer to 19 times earnings.

Valuation gap

For many analysts, that valuation gap simply became too difficult to justify.

According to TradingView data, broker sentiment toward CBA shares remains firmly negative even after the sell-off. Morgans retained its sell rating following the quarterly update and cut its price target to $119.40. That still implies roughly 23% downside from current levels.

The broker noted that growth momentum has slowed since the first half and argued the shares continue to look expensive despite the recent crash.

So, is the sell-off over?

Possibly not.

Because while CBA remains a world-class bank, investors are finally starting to question whether its premium valuation was ever sustainable in the first place.

The post Why is everyone selling CBA shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: COG Financial Services, Macquarie, CBA shares
• The CBA share price crash was an accident waiting to happen. Here’s why
• Buy, hold, sell: CBA, Life360, and Macquarie shares
• NAB shares slump 26% from their peak: Buy, sell or hold?
• Are CBA shares a buy after the latest sell-off?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.