Author: openjargon

The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has fallen lower in early morning trade on Thursday as investor confidence in ASX shares continues to take a hit.

At the time of writing, the All Ords Index is down around 1% for the day, and is now roughly 0.5% lower for the year-to-date.

But there are some ASX shares that brokers expect will outperform the index going forward. Here are two of them, and they’re tipped to have upsides of up to 90%.

SiteMinder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

SiteMinder is a technology business that provides an e-commerce platform for hotels and other accommodation businesses. The company touts its product as helping hotels to sell, market, manage, and grow their businesses from one platform. 

The company posted a strong FY26 result last month, including a 22% increase in revenue and a 96.5% increase in EBITDA. Its net loss also improved to $11.3 million, down from a net loss of $24.5 million in FY25. And these results came amid headwinds from a strong Australian dollar and ongoing global travel challenges. 

Looking ahead, SiteMinder said it expects its adjusted EBITDA margin to keep expanding in FY27 and reach the mid-20% range by FY30. ARR is targeted to continue growing in the 20% range (CAGR) over the next four years. 

But it looks like investors were disappointed with the company’s outlook and slower-than-expected growth projection. At $2.80 a piece, the share price has crashed around 27% since the results announcement and is down around 54% for the year-to-date.

But I think the latest sell-off was overdone. The current share price looks like a rare buying opportunity to buy shares cheaply. 

Market Index shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the ASX shares. And the $5.40 average target price implies an upside of around 90% at the time of writing.

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

It’s been a choppy 2026 so far for the ASX gold producer’s shares.

The share price spiked to an all-time high in January when it announced a significant new high-grade discovery at its Plutonic Gold Belt. But then the ASX shares shed around 52% of their value to an annual low in early June. The crash followed headwinds from a weaker gold price, higher mining costs and an investor rotation away from gold shares.

But now it looks like the headwinds from earlier this year are finally turning into tailwinds. Catalyst shares have now rebounded around 41% since June and are trading at $6.57 at the time of writing. For the year-to-date, the shares are roughly 11% lower.

In late-July the gold miner announced a record quarterly gold production of 31,886 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,666 per ounce, and built cash reserves by A$54 million in the June 2026 quarter.

And earlier this week, the company announced its FY26 results. It posted record metrics across the board, supported by a buoyant gold price. Revenue climbed 39%, EBITDA was up 57%, and NPAT was 43% higher.

Management expects growth to continue in coming years as it develops and ramps up production at its Trident underground, Old Highway and Cinnamon sites.

Market Index data shows that brokers are very bullish about the outlook for the ASX shares. All brokers have a strong buy rating on the ASX shares. The average target price of $10.94 implies a potential 66% upside at the time of writing.

The post 2 ASX shares tipped by brokers to return 66% and 90% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why I’d invest $10,000 into these ASX growth shares
• Buy, hold, sell: PLS Group, Catalyst Metals, Sandfire Resources shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• This exciting ASX 300 stock has 89% upside: Broker

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have endured a difficult year, falling around 9% over the past 12 months. At $34.39, the $117 billion banking giant is trading near its 52-week low.

That decline has made Westpac’s valuation look more tempting. But with several challenges weighing on the banking sector, is the weakness an opportunity to buy — or a warning sign?

Let’s see what the market experts think.

Why Westpac shares are under pressure

August was another challenging month for ASX bank shares as renewed concerns about inflation and interest rates weighed on investor sentiment.

Westpac shares are also facing several company-specific headwinds. Mortgage demand is softening, competition for borrowers remains intense, the housing market is facing uncertainty and pressure on lending margins could weigh on profitability.

That doesn’t make Westpac a bad bank, however. The lender has millions of customers, a substantial deposit base and one of Australia’s largest mortgage businesses. It is also investing in technology and expanding its capabilities in areas such as business banking.

Its latest quarterly result was reasonably encouraging. Westpac delivered $1.8 billion in net profit excluding notable items, representing a 2% increase compared with the average quarterly profit in the first half. Its net interest margin also remained steady at 1.89%.

Mortgage competition puts pressure on margins

However, there were some less encouraging developments beneath the headline numbers.

Mortgage application volumes declined as competition intensified and borrowers remained cautious amid interest-rate uncertainty. Westpac has also warned that margins could come under further pressure in the near term.

For a major bank whose earnings are closely tied to lending margins, that’s an important risk for investors in Westpac shares to consider.

What do brokers think?

The broker consensus doesn’t exactly suggest Westpac shares are a screaming buy.

According to TradingView data, nine of 16 brokers rate the stock a sell or strong sell. Six have a hold recommendation, while just one has a strong buy rating.

The average price target is $33.38, below the current share price of $34.39.

There is still a wide range of views. The most bullish forecast is $45, implying potential upside of around 31%, while the most pessimistic target suggests the shares could fall another 17% over the next 12 months.

Foolish takeaway

The lower valuation of Westpac shares, compared to Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and dividend appeal could make the shares worth considering for income-focused investors willing to accept some near-term uncertainty.

But a cheaper share price doesn’t automatically make a stock a bargain.

With mortgage competition intensifying and margins facing further pressure, the case for buying the dip in Westpac shares isn’t quite as compelling as the recent weakness might suggest.

The post Is the pullback in Westpac shares a buying opportunity? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares I think could return more than Westpac
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $100 a day in passive income?
• How much do I need to invest in CBA shares for $10,000 of passive income?
• $10,000 invested in Westpac and NAB shares 3 years ago is now worth…
• How much passive income can I earn off a $550,000 superannuation balance?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In Australia, age 60 to 65 is the most popular timeframe for retirement. From age 60, you can generally access your superannuation once you stop work, or meet another condition of release. By age 65, you can access your super regardless of whether you’re still working.

But what if you don’t want to wait that long?

The good news is, you don’t need to.

Provided you have enough money to fund the retirement lifestyle you want, you can actually retire whenever you like.

Let’s investigate what retiring at age 57 might look like, and how much it might cost.

What is a ‘comfortable’ retirement?

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), a comfortable retirement is defined as one that enables retirees to maintain a good standard of living well beyond a basic retirement or the age pension. 

It budgets for expenses beyond a modest retirement, including top-tier private health insurance and regular leisure activities. It allocates funds for home repairs or renovations, and perhaps even an annual holiday.

How much does it cost to retire comfortably?

ASFA calculates that a comfortable retirement will cost roughly $55,923 per year for single Australians. It’s expected to cost a couple living together closer to $78,566 per year combined.

How much do I need in my superannuation to finance that?

In order to have enough money for a comfortable retirement, ASFA calculates that at age 67, single Australians should have around $630,000 in their superannuation. Meanwhile, couples will need a balance closer to $730,000.

But the only catch is that these figures assume you’ll be retiring at age 67. The calculation also assumes you will only need to fund around 10 years of retirement, will be eligible to receive a part Age Pension, and that you own your home in full.

Which means if you want to retire much earlier, at age 57, then you’ll need additional savings to support yourself for the three years before you reach your preservation and can start drawing down on your super balance. 

So, how much do I need at age 57 to be able to retire early?

First, you’ll need to ensure you can support yourself from age 57 to age 60. 

Using the figures above, that means individual Aussies will need around $167,769 set aside. This will need to be separate from your superannuation (otherwise you won’t be able to access it), in a type of accessible savings account.

Couples will need around $235,698 of savings in order to fund those three additional years.

On top of that, you’ll need to make sure you have enough in your superannuation to support yourself from age 60.

That means ASFA’s $630,000 or $730,000 guide isn’t going to be enough. You’ll need to fund an additional seven years of retirement between ages 60 and 67. 

So, I’ve crunched the numbers to work out what you’ll need instead.

At age 60, singles will need to have closer to $1 million in their superannuation. Meanwhile, couples will need a combined balance of around $1.3 million at age 60. 

These figures assume you’ll need to fund the additional seven years of retirement between the ages of 60 and 67. 

If you don’t own your home outright, you’ll also need to consider how you’ll pay your mortgage or rent.

The post How much do I need in my superannuation to retire comfortably at age 57? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares I think could return more than Westpac
• 2 ASX shares tipped by brokers to return 66% and 90%
• Is the pullback in Westpac shares a buying opportunity?
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $100 a day in passive income?
• GrainCorp keeps guidance steady as transformation delivers gains

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

We’ve been writing a fair bit lately on how you might want to invest some of your superannuation into ASX dividend shares to secure a long-term passive income stream in your retirement years.

To be clear, it’s likely not in your best interests to invest all of your super balance into the stock market.

If you are going to invest a reasonably large portion, you may want to consider investing some of that in international stocks. This way your superannuation savings aren’t overly exposed to just the Aussie market.

You’ll also want to keep some liquid funds handy for any unexpected costly events, so you won’t need to sell any of your ASX shares during future market downturns.

With this in mind, how much you need to invest in ASX dividend shares to earn $100 a day – or $36,500 a year – will obviously depend on the yield you’re earning.

While chasing a few high-yield stocks may be tempting, you’ll often find that the yields look appealing because the company’s share prices have fallen sharply since their last dividend declarations. That could signal lower dividend payments ahead.

You also need to be careful if you’re considering buying just a few quality ASX dividend shares.

A properly diversified passive income portfolio will contain a lot more than just a few stocks. There’s no magic number. But 15 is a reasonable ball park figure. Ideally, you’ll own companies operating in various sectors and locations. This will reduce the risk of your passive income stream taking a big hit if any one company or sector hits a rough patch.

Which brings us back to…

Tapping into superannuation for $100 a day in passive income

Rather than trying to build a new passive income portfolio from scratch, and researching dozens of ASX dividend shares, you might want to consider a dividend paying exchange traded fund (ETF).

Take State Street SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield ETF (ASX: SYI), for example.

This ASX ETF pays quarterly dividends, which can be handy during retirement if you’re waiting on that next passive income payout. And management costs are just 0.20% per year.

Pleasingly, the share price has gained 7.0% in 2026. You don’t want to invest your superannuation in stocks going backwards. Ideally, you want annual share price gains to at least match the inflation rate. This way inflation won’t erode the real value of your superannuation investment.

The top five holdings of the State Street SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield ETF are:

• CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)
• National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ)
• Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)
• Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

And the ETF trades on a trailing dividend yield of 4.0%.

So, for $100 a day, or $36,500 a year, in passive income, you’d need to invest $912,500 today.

The post How much superannuation do I need to earn $100 a day in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares I think could return more than Westpac
• Is the pullback in Westpac shares a buying opportunity?
• CSL shares are up 90%. How much higher can they go?
• How much is needed in superannuation to target a $70,000 annual passive income?
• $10,000 invested in Westpac and NAB shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is in focus today as the company reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, forecasting underlying EBITDA mid-range at $200–240 million and underlying NPAT between $20–50 million, including $5 million in restructuring costs.

What did GrainCorp report?

• Reconfirmed FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance at around $200–240 million
• FY26 underlying NPAT expected within $20–50 million range
• Business Transformation Program to deliver $12 million run-rate benefits by end FY26
• One-off restructuring costs of $5 million incurred in FY26
• System transformation spend unchanged for 2H26 at $25 million; FY27 updated to $30–35 million

What else do investors need to know?

GrainCorp’s Business Transformation Program is on track, targeting a $20–30 million uplift in through-the-cycle EBITDA by FY28. Operating model changes across Agribusiness, affecting around 80 roles, are aimed at improving decision-making and execution across its east coast network.

Investment continues in GrainCorp’s systems transformation, particularly in the Nutrition and Energy segment, with deployment for Release 1 extended to post-harvest in 2Q CY27. The company maintains a disciplined balance sheet and has deferred further systems upgrades in Agribusiness to focus on operating improvements.

What did GrainCorp management say?

Managing Director and CEO Robert Spurway said:

We have completed major changes to our operating model and remain focused on driving efficiency and best-in-class financial outcomes.

What’s next for GrainCorp?

GrainCorp will continue to monitor conditions in the 2026–27 winter crop, especially as New South Wales and Victoria see favourable growing weather, and Queensland faces drier conditions. The latest ABARES report forecasts a 12% lift in east coast winter crop production from June, providing potential upside.

Management will also keep an eye on new export opportunities, thanks to recent increases in global commodity prices. GrainCorp’s refreshed structure and strong balance sheet are intended to position the company to make the most of market opportunities as they arise.

GrainCorp share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, GrainCorp shares have declined 19%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 1% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post GrainCorp keeps guidance steady as transformation delivers gains appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) share price could be one to watch on Thursday after the gold miner released a big update before market open.

St Barbara shares finished flat at 73 cents apiece yesterday, but investors could have plenty to think about when trading gets underway this morning.

So, what has St Barbara announced?

St Barbara cashes in

According to the release, St Barbara has agreed to sell its remaining interest in the New Simberi Gold Project in Papua New Guinea to China’s Lingbao Gold Group.

Under the deal, the company will receive $410 million in cash when the transaction completes.

It will also receive another $43 million to repay its share of construction spending on New Simberi between April and signing.

However, St Barbara will still retain some exposure to the project.

The company will keep a 2.75% net smelter return royalty on future gold and silver production from New Simberi, along with a 1.5% royalty over minerals produced from the Tabar Islands exploration licences.

The transaction is expected to complete in the March quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Could shareholders get another big dividend?

There could be a pretty big payday coming for shareholders.

St Barbara had $427 million in cash at the end of August. After the sale completes, it expects to have around $880 million in cash and no debt.

The board is considering paying shareholders another fully franked special dividend of around 13 cents per share after completion.

That would come on top of the fully franked 5-cent dividend already declared in August, taking potential dividend returns to 18 cents per share.

Based on Wednesday’s 73-cent closing price, that is equal to almost 25% of the current share price.

The company is also considering an on-market share buyback of up to 100 million shares. A decision is expected after the 15-Mile Processing Hub pre-feasibility study update due around the end of September.

What does St Barbara look like after the sale?

Once Simberi is sold, St Barbara will be left with its Nova Scotia gold projects and the royalties from Simberi.

From there, the focus will be on restarting production at Touquoy by the end of 2026 and moving the 15-Mile Processing Hub towards a final investment decision (FID) by the end of FY27.

The Simberi royalty could still bring in plenty of cash too, with St Barbara estimating around $286 million over the current mine plan.

I think St Barbara is one to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks.

The post St Barbara share price on watch after a huge announcement appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• St Barbara posts $490m profit and declares 5¢ dividend for FY26

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are an attractive option for passive-income hunting investors.

The company generates a substantial cash flow from its large iron ore operations which means that when iron ore prices and production is strong, it can return a significant portion of its profits to shareholders through dividends.

Fortescue is also actively diversifying its business beyond iron ore and into other markets, such as copper and renewable energy, which could reduce its reliance on iron ore over the long term and strengthen its bottom line.

But what if you wanted to generate $1,000 of passive income from Fortescue shares every single month? Is it even possible? And if so, what would it entail?

Let’s investigate.

What’s the latest out of Fortescue shares?

At the time of writing, ASX mining shares are trading for $17.61 a piece. That’s about 21% lower year-to-date and a 6% decline from this time last year.

What dividend does Fortescue pay its shareholders?

Fortescue has a strong dividend history dating back to 2011.

The miner traditionally pays its shareholders two full-franked dividends every year, in March and September. The miner has a policy of returning 50%-80% of its net profit after tax to shareholders as dividends.

Fortescue is due to pay its shareholders a final 46 cent per share dividend, fully franked, later this month. Combined with the 62 cent dividend paid out in March, that brings the miner’s total FY26 dividend to $1.08 per share.

Current forecasts suggest that the company’s FY27 total dividend per share could decline to 86.4 cents per share, off the back of falling iron ore prices. 

Based on the current share price, that translates to a dividend yield of around 6.1% for FY26, and around 5% for FY27.

How many Fortescue shares do I need to generate $1,000 per month in passive income?

At the time of writing, Fortescue shares are $17.61 each.

That means, for the $1.08 per share dividend in FY26, investors would need to buy roughly 11,111 shares to generate around $1,000 per month (or $12,000 per year) in passive income.

To earn the same amount in FY27, assuming the miner pays the forecasted 86.4 cents per share dividend, investors would need to buy around 13,888 shares.

What would that cost me?

In order to buy the 11,111 Fortesce shares needed to generate the equivalent of a $1,000 per month passive income in FY26, you would need to invest around $196,000.

For the same level of passive income in FY27, investors would need to spend around $245,000 on the mining shares.

It’s not a small investment, but it’s one that could pay off over the long term.

And remember, you don’t have to invest the full amount at once. You can slowly build your investment over time and let compound growth do the rest.

The post How many Fortescue shares do I need to buy to earn $1,000 per month in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much could the Fortescue share price rise in the next year?
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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There is plenty of discourse around artificial intelligence and the lack of exposure available through Australian stocks. 

While it’s true that Australia doesn’t have a direct equivalent to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) or the major US technology giants driving the AI revolution, that doesn’t mean Australian investors are shut out of the opportunity. 

The AI buildout requires far more than chips and software. It also requires vast amounts of data-centre capacity, electricity, land and connectivity.

For investors looking to gain exposure to the artificial intelligence boom through Australian equities, these companies offer three different ways of owning the physical infrastructure behind AI. 

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NEXTDC offers perhaps the most direct Australian exposure to the physical infrastructure required to power the AI boom. 

The company operates high-performance data centres that house the servers, GPUs and networking equipment. This is used by cloud providers, enterprises and AI companies. 

As AI models become more computationally intensive, demand is shifting towards high-density data centres with significantly greater power and advanced liquid-cooling capabilities. 

These are areas in which NEXTDC is investing heavily. 

The argument for NextDC is quite straight forward. 

If the world needs dramatically more computing power to develop and run AI, it needs dramatically more data-centre capacity to house that computing power.

Experts seem to agree. UBS recently placing a buy rating with a $23.45 target, implying more than an 80% upside.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman Group provides a less obvious, but potentially powerful, way to gain exposure to the AI buildout. 

While traditionally known as a global logistics property group, Goodman has been rapidly expanding into data-centre infrastructure.

Its competitive advantage lies in controlling the land, power and development capability needed to build large-scale facilities. 

This is increasingly important because AI data centres are constrained by demand. They are also constrained by access to suitable sites, electricity and network connectivity. 

In other words, Goodman is a way to invest in the scarce physical resources that AI infrastructure needs.

It has also drawn positive attention from experts this month. 

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

Megaport sits further up the AI infrastructure stack, providing the connectivity that allows data, cloud platforms and computing resources to communicate with one another. 

AI workloads are extraordinarily data-intensive, requiring fast, reliable connections between data centres, cloud providers, GPUs and end users. 

Megaport operates a software-defined networking platform spanning more than 1,200 enabled data centres and 30 countries, making it a potential beneficiary as AI drives greater volumes of data across networks.

Brokers are expecting almost 40% share price growth in the next 12 months on the back of its recent earnings results. 

The post You don’t need to own Nvidia to invest in AI – Here are the best Aussie artificial intelligence shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group, Megaport, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a volatile year for S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) stock Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD). 

The company is an agribusiness that provides goods and services to Australian primary producers. 

It sells seed, fertiliser, agricultural chemicals, animal health products, and general rural merchandise. It also supplies professional and technical services to farmers via its network of agronomists.

Rollercoaster 12 months 

In the past 12 months, the ASX 300 stock has hit highs of nearly $8 per share, and lows of less than $5 per share. 

Back in June, it was hovering around the $5 mark, but has since rallied significantly. 

Since then, it has risen an impressive 30%. 

When ASX 300 stocks bounce around this significantly, it can be difficult for investors to identify fair value.

However, a new report from Bell Potter has provided a fresh outlook for the next 12 months. 

Slight downgrade

Overall, Bell Potter has downgraded Elders from buy to hold. The broker also slightly increased its target price from $6.45 to $6.70 per share.

The main reason for the downgrade is that Elders’ underlying earnings drivers remain positive. However, growth is starting to moderate as the company faces tougher year-on-year comparisons.

Agency markets remain supportive. Cattle slaughter and yardings are both up 2% year on year, while cattle prices are up 23%. 

Sheep volumes have fallen significantly, but this has been offset by stronger pricing, with lamb prices up 21% and mutton prices up 40%. Wool volumes are expected to be broadly flat to slightly higher, while the EMI is up 43%.

The broker also identified that crop conditions are favourable.

Recent upgrades to Australian crop forecasts, supported by rainfall, should help demand for Elders’ agricultural services, particularly in Western Australia and southeastern Australia. 

However, the forecast for summer crop acreage was weaker than expected, at 1.121 million hectares, down 17% year-on-year.

Minimal upside for ASX 300 stock

Overall, Bell Potter expects FY26 earnings to be broadly unchanged, with NPAT estimates revised by +1% for FY26, -2% for FY27 and -4% for FY28. 

The broker believes the business remains fundamentally sound, but the earnings tailwinds are easing, which supports a Hold rather than Buy rating.

From yesterday’s closing price, the updated target from Bell Potter indicates roughly 3% upside over the next 12 months. 

Following the recent recovery in the share price we are moving our rating from Buy to Hold. 

Investments in Delta and Systems Modernisation programs are the largest drivers of near term growth, however, we see the large livestock tailwinds the agency business has benefited from the past two years facing more difficult comparisons moving forward.

The post This ASX 300 stock has rebounded 30% from yearly lows – can it keep rallying? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Australia’s corporate sector is cautious heading into the current financial year, according to the analysts at Canaccord Genuity, however, there are some standouts in terms of likely profit growth going forward.

The broking house said in the recent reporting season, there was “healthy” headline earnings per share growth of 12%, however, this was driven largely by the mining sector.

Uncertainties have big business on the back foot

Looking ahead, CG said company guidance on the outlook was “broadly cautious across the board”.

They added:

High interest rates, tax policy changes, the weaker housing market, cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical uncertainty together constrained management confidence and limited visibility into the near-term outlook for operating conditions. Retail trading updates provided the clearest evidence of a softening consumer, with top-line growth slowing through 2H26 and into early FY27. The major Banks similarly pointed to tougher macro conditions and slower housing credit growth over the year ahead.

CG said the market was in a clear downgrade cycle outside of the resources sector.

They added:

Accordingly, we remain cautious on ASX 200 returns over the next twelve months. However, active investors willing to look beyond the index can still find high-quality companies offering resilient earnings despite the soft macro, credible growth prospects, and reasonable valuations.

But there are some sectors which are likely to perform well, the broking house said.

The energy sector is expected to grow earnings by 38%, driven by high oil prices, while the IT sector is expected to grow earnings by 22%, with strength from the major software as a service companies.

Consumer services are expected to grow earnings 13%, materials are expected to be up 11%, and retail staples also 11%.

Financial services facing challenges

CG is expecting the weakest growth to come from the financial services sector, with banks growing earnings just 3%.

Discretionary retail is also expected to be weak with 6% growth.

CG said:

Prior to reporting season, we flagged our caution towards both Banks and Retail. As expected, reporting season showed that both sectors face mounting macro headwinds from a weaker housing market, fragile consumer sentiment, high interest rates and persistent cost-of-living pressures (exacerbated by petrol price volatility). For Banks, this was reflected in cautious outlooks pointing to softer credit growth. For Retail, early-FY27 trading updates generally pointed to weakening top-line growth, particularly among retailers with greater exposure to housing activity.

CG said elevated bank valuations remain hard to reconcile with a weakening macro outlook and subdued earnings prospects.

They added:

Despite the soft sector outlook, the Big 4 trade at an average P/E ~20% above their ten-year average, supporting our continued sector underweight.

The post Where will the best returns in the ASX 200 be in the next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.