Author: openjargon

The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) is down 0.2% in morning trade on Friday, but that’s not holding back this surging ASX 300 energy stock.

Today’s outperformance follows news of a sales agreement with Australian electricity provider AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL).

Any guesses?

If you said Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL), go to the head of the virtual class.

Amplitude Energy shares closed yesterday trading for $1.72. At time of writing, shares are changing hands for $1.83 apiece, up 6.4%.

Currently trading for $9.45 each, AGL shares are down 0.5% at this same time.

Here’s what’s catching investor interest.

ASX 300 energy stock jumps on AGL gas sales deal

Amplitude Energy shares are leaping higher after the ASX 300 energy stock announced that it has executed a binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with AGL.

Covering an initial four-year term, the deal would see Amplitude supply AGL with 20 petajoules (PJ) of gas from its East Coast Supply Project (ECSP).

The price Amplitude Energy receives for that gas will be linked to prevailing market rates for oil prices. Management is targeting first supply in the second half of 2028.

The ASX 300 energy stock noted that its sales agreement with AGL depends on its current ECSP drilling campaign confirming enough gas reserves and production capacity.

What did management say?

Commenting on the deal that’s helping boost the ASX 300 energy stock today, Amplitude Energy managing director and CEO Jane Norman said, “We are delighted to extend our long-term partnership with AGL Energy through this Foundation GSA for the ECSP.”

According to Norman:

AGL Energy has been a key supporter of Amplitude Energy, including as a foundation buyer from the Sole gas project. This GSA reflects the strong demand we are seeing for reliable, domestic gas supply in Southeast Australia, as well as both parties’ confidence in the ECSP.

“This agreement supports AGL’s strategy to secure reliable, long-term domestic gas supply and underpin new production to market,” AGL chief commercial officer David Moretto said.

Moretto added:

Gas remains essential in firming large scale renewables and supporting customers through the transition, particularly in South East Australia. It reflects our disciplined approach to contracting that underpins system reliability and customer outcomes.

How have AGL and Amplitude Energy shares been tracking?

It’s been a volatile year for both Amplitude Energy and AGL shares.

With more downs than ups, the AGL share price has dropped 8% over the past 12 months.

Amplitude Energy shares remain down 10% since this time last year.

The post Guess which ASX 300 energy stock is surging today on big AGL news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: AGL, Origin Energy, and Woodside shares
• Why are AGL shares rising today?
• AGL Energy gives green light to $490m Kwinana gas project
• Down 40% last week, are Amplitude Energy shares now a buy?
• Why this sold-off ASX energy stock could rise 60%+

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares are on the move on Friday morning.

At the time of writing, the buy now pay later provider’s shares are up 24% to $2.54.

This follows the release of its third quarter update before the market open.

Zip shares rocket on results day

Investors have been buying the company’s shares following the release of a quarterly update which revealed strong growth and an upgrade to guidance.

According to the release, Zip delivered record cash EBTDA of $65.1 million for the third quarter. This represents a 41.5% increase on the prior corresponding period.

This was underpinned by total transaction volume growth of 22.4% year on year to $4.0 billion, and total income growth of 20.2% to $335.2 million.

Importantly, the company also reported operating margin expansion to 19.4%, up from 16.5% a year earlier.

US performance a key highlight

A major focus for investors is likely to be Zip’s US business, which continues to drive its overall growth.

The company reported that US total transaction volume grew strongly, increasing 43.1% year on year on a constant currency basis.

Encouragingly, US net bad debts remained steady at 1.86% of transaction volume, despite broader growth in the business.

This appears to align with expectations that the company would be able to maintain credit quality while scaling its operations.

However, at a group level, net bad debts increased to 1.9% of transaction volume, up from 1.6% a year ago.

Margins and profitability are improving

Zip also highlighted strong unit economics during the quarter. Its cash net transaction margin remained stable at 3.9%, while operating leverage helped drive profitability higher.

The company’s active customer base grew year on year to 6.5 million, and the number of merchants on its platform increased 12.7% to 93,900. However, it is worth noting that active customers are down from 6.6 million at the end of December.

Management pointed to deeper customer engagement and disciplined execution as key drivers of the performance.

Zip’s CEO and managing director, Cynthia Scott, said:

Zip’s resilient business model continues to drive increased profitability at scale, delivering record cash earnings of $65.1m, up 41.5% year on year. Operating margin expanded 292bps to 19.4%, reflecting strong unit economics and significant operating leverage. Momentum continued across both markets, underpinned by deepened customer engagement and disciplined execution.

In the US, TTV growth accelerated to 43.1% (in USD) year on year while active customers grew 9.0% (+375k), merchants on the platform increased 17.9%, and the business expanded its Pay-in-Z offering through the launch of Pay-in-2. We achieved these outcomes while holding credit losses steady within our target range, with US credit losses forecast to decline in 4Q26 to below 1.75% of TTV.

Guidance upgraded

Giving Zip shares a boost today is news that it has upgraded its FY 2026 guidance following the strong third quarter.

The company now expects group cash EBTDA of at least $260 million for the full year, reflecting confidence in continued momentum. This compares to its previous guidance of approximately $248.6 million.

It also reaffirmed expectations for strong US growth, targeting transaction volume growth of more than 40% in that market.

Scott commented:

Following a strong third quarter performance, we have upgraded our FY26 Group cash EBTDA guidance to be no less than $260.0m, while reconfirming each of our FY26 target ranges.

The post Why are Zip shares rocketing 24% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Zip Co posts record cash EBTDA and upgrades FY26 guidance
• ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Why are Zip shares flying 9% higher today?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares are catching the eye of investors on Friday.

In morning trade, the ASX 200 uranium stock is up 7% to $15.10.

This compares favourably to the performance of the ASX 200 index, which is down 0.15% at the time of writing.

Why are Paladin Energy shares jumping?

Investors have been bidding Paladin Energy shares higher today after it released an update on its operations and guidance for the Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) in FY 2026.

According to the release, the LHM ramp-up and transition to full mining operations has progressed well during the first nine months of FY 2026.

Management notes that the combination of successful mobilisation of the mining fleet, improved feed grade, and high recovery rates from the processing plant have resulted in year-to-date FY 2026 production of 3.6Mlb U3O8.

As a result of the strong performance in the first three quarters of FY 2026, management has decided to update its guidance.

It now expects U3O8 production of 4.5Mlb to 4.8Mlb. This is up from its previous guidance range of 4Mlb to 4.4Mlb.

What else?

Management advised that LHM has recorded 3.0Mlb U3O8 in sales in the first nine months of FY 2026. Despite the upgraded production guidance, full year sales guidance remains unchanged. It continues to expect sales of 3.8Mlb to 4.2Mlb for the year.

In addition, it revealed that its cost of production is expected to materially align with previous guidance of US$44 per pound to US$48 per pound. However, this is pending the duration of the current conflict in the Middle East and any further associated impacts on forecast cost.

One thing that is changing is its capital and exploration expenditure guidance range. It has been reduced to US$15 million to US$17 million (from US$26 million to US$32 million). This is due to the reprioritisation and deferral of capital and exploration expenditure.

However, once again, management warned that “the revised guidance is based on current operating conditions and assumptions and may be impacted by disruptions arising from current geopolitical events. Paladin is closely monitoring the potential impact of these events.”

It also reiterated that “Paladin continues to expect LHM to transition to full mining and processing plant operations by the end of FY2026.”

Following today’s move, Paladin Energy’s shares are up over 200% since this time last year.

The post Paladin Energy shares are jumping 7% on big news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Paladin Energy hikes FY2026 outlook after Langer Heinrich ramp-up
• ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week
• 3 ASX 200 titans charging to new one-year-plus highs today
• Why is this ASX energy stock racing 7% higher today?
• Paladin Energy shares: Judicial review challenges EIS approval

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Now could be a good time to buy Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares.

That’s the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who are tipping the radiopharmaceuticals company as a top buy this week.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter notes that Telix has announced the refinancing of its convertible note facility. It is pleased with the decision and believes it removes an overhang on its shares. It explains:

TLX has refinanced its A$650m convertible note (CN) facility with a freshly negotiated US$600m CN facility. The major advantage for TLX is the long term deferral of the pending investor put option on the original facility. The put option had an exercise date in July 2027 with the share price currently well below the estimated conversion price of A$24.75, hence it is reasonable to believe note holders could have taken cash rather than continue to hold the notes. The refinance has been completed to remove this overhang, providing shareholders with greater certainty.

The expanded principal balance also provides the company with greater flexibility on its future funding requirement. The new facility also has a 5- year term with a put option after 3 years and coupon of 1.5%. The use of debt to partly fund the drug development program remains a higher risk strategy. Approval of both Pixclara and Zircaix later this year remain important catalysts for note holders. The key risk is the prospect of further delays to approvals which would inevitably cause earnings downgrades and downward pressure on the share price.

The broker was also pleased with news that Telix has signed a co-development and co-commercialisation agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: REGN). It adds:

The CN refinance comes fast on the heels of the co-development and co-commercialisation deal with Regeneron announced earlier this week. Regeneron are a tier one pharma company in the US with revenues exceeding US$14bn in 2025 and market cap of US$80bn. Nevertheless, Regeneron is like most other large pharma – seeking to replace lost revenues from recent patent cliffs.

It does not currently have revenues from any molecularly target radiation, however, it does have a large oncology franchise. TLX will receive a US$40m upfront fee which we expect it will amortise over several years. First indication could include a combination with Regeneron’s Libtayo for the treatment of Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.

Are Telix shares heading to $19?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $19.00 price target on Telix’s shares.

Based on its current share price of $15.00, this implies potential upside of almost 27% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker concludes:

TP remains unchanged at $19.00. No changes to revenues. FY26 EBITDA is increased by $8m being the estimated FY26 revenue from the Regeneron agreement. There are minor changes to the finance charge in line with revised terms on the CN facility. We retain our Buy rating.

The post Is the Telix share price heading to $19? This broker thinks it is appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Boss Energy, Telix, Woodside, and Yancoal shares are falling today
• Why are Telix shares sinking 7.5% today?
• Telix Pharmaceuticals upsizes convertible bonds to US$600 million
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Investor Presentation: 56% FY25 revenue growth, pipeline advances
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares have been strong performers this week.

Thanks partly to the release of a strong quarterly update, the investment platform provider’s shares are up 14% since this time last week.

The good news is that Bell Potter doesn’t think it is too late to invest. Let’s see what it is saying.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter was pleased with the ASX 200 stock’s update and the progress the company is making. It said:

NWL has delivered a positive trading update, detailing its strongest net inflow growth since this time last year, and ahead of expectations. All client segments contributed to the result, driven by existing financial intermediaries.

To that end, we consider First Guardian as complete, with strong retail flows experienced, and no signs of account churn were offered. Distribution capabilities have also been upgraded with senior hires from other platform providers. The broker solution is progressing and on track for release with clarity around timing. We view this as a strong opportunity and catalyst.

While Netwealth’s funds under administration (FUA) were a touch softer than expected, this was driven by market movements. In addition, Bell Potter notes that markets have since rebounded strongly, reversing this. It said:

NWL reported total FUA of $125.8bn against our $129.7bn estimate, which was flat QOQ and driven by a -$3.7bn market movement, which equates to -3.0% of opening. Subsequent strong positive mark-to-market impacts have reversed most of this. The local share market has advanced +5.7% while offshore indices are up +6.4%. After the dilutive impact of USD depreciation returns would be similar.

NWL continues to demonstrate a strong pipeline with record R12M net account openings and 41 new adviser relationships. This figure is usually provided each half-year. A similar level of managed account models were added during the quarter. About 30% of net inflows are directed into these. Finally, the broker solution is now expected for July release.

Should you buy this ASX 200 stock?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on the ASX 200 stock.

Based on its current share price of $25.22, this implies potential upside of 19% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, a 1.7% dividend yield is expected over the period. This would lift the total potential return beyond 20%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

Following the update, we have downgraded our EPS estimates -1% contained within FY27 and driven by steadier average FUA balances and take-rates. Our Buy rating is unchanged. NWL has de-rated to trade on 28x forward EBITDA consistent with prior risk off environments and compares to 33x through-the-cycle. We would expect the earnings catalysts and sentiment exposure to drive enhanced shareholder returns.

The post Broker says this ASX 200 stock can deliver a 20% return appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• This beaten-down ASX financial share is bouncing back fast today
• Why AMP, Life360, Netwealth, and Ora Banda shares are racing higher today
• 3 ASX 300 shares that could be much bigger in 5 years
• Netwealth Group lifts FUA to $125.8B with strong quarterly flows

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price is in focus today as the ACCC announced its proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance (RACI) will require an in-depth Phase 2 review. Both insurers are leading providers of motor, home, and contents insurance in Western Australia, making competition concerns the key highlight.

What did Insurance Australia Group report?

• Proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance enters Phase 2 review by the ACCC.
• ACCC says the deal could substantially lessen competition in WA’s insurance market.
• No conclusion reached yet – review continues under the new formal merger regime.
• Submissions on the Phase 2 Notice are invited until 4 May 2026.

What else do investors need to know?

The ACCC’s review focuses on the competitive impacts across both the motor vehicle and home and contents insurance markets in Western Australia. The regulator is also examining implications for related services like smash repairs, given the market share of both companies in the region.

IAG previously reapplied for approval under the new merger regime that started in January 2026, after the ACCC didn’t clear the deal under the old informal process last year. The current review will take up to 90 business days unless extended, allowing the ACCC to explore competition impacts in detail.

What’s next for Insurance Australia Group?

Investors can expect more updates as the ACCC’s Phase 2 review progresses. The outcome will determine whether IAG can proceed with bringing RACI into its portfolio and underwriting its home and motor insurance products under the RAC brand.

For now, IAG continues to operate its existing brands across Australia and New Zealand, including partnerships and underwriting for third parties. The company’s growth strategy depends partly on the outcome of this high-profile merger review.

Insurance Australia Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Insurance Australia Group shares have declined 5%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 15% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Insurance Australia Group’s RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Paladin Energy hikes FY2026 outlook after Langer Heinrich ramp-up
• Alcoa posts Q1 2026 result
• Zip Co posts record cash EBTDA and upgrades FY26 guidance
• Meridian Energy shares: Strong customer growth in March
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) share price is in focus today after the company lifted its FY2026 production guidance for the Langer Heinrich Mine following strong year-to-date results. Management cited a smooth ramp-up to full mining, a higher feed grade, and strong recovery rates, with 3.6 million pounds of uranium oxide produced so far this financial year.

What did Paladin Energy report?

• FY2026 uranium oxide (U₃O₈) production guidance raised to 4.5–4.8 Mlb (up from 4.0–4.4 Mlb)
• Year-to-date FY2026 production: 3.6 Mlb U₃O₈
• FY2026 uranium sales guidance unchanged at 3.8–4.2 Mlb (3.0 Mlb sold so far YTD)
• Average realised price year-to-date: US$69.8/lb
• Cost of production (YTD): US$40.4/lb (guidance of US$44–48/lb unchanged)
• Capital and exploration expenditure guidance for FY2026 reduced to US$15–17M (was US$26–32M)

What else do investors need to know?

Paladin’s improved FY2026 guidance follows a successful ramp-up of mining and processing operations at its flagship Langer Heinrich Mine. The combination of higher feed grades and efficient plant performance underpinned a strong production result in the first nine months of the year.

Despite the positive operational momentum, Paladin cautioned that cost expectations remain subject to global events, especially ongoing Middle East conflicts. The company reduced planned capital and exploration spending for the year after reprioritising investment and deferring some projects.

A conference call is scheduled for 22 April 2026, after Paladin releases its March 2026 Quarterly Report, to offer further updates to shareholders and analysts.

What’s next for Paladin Energy?

Paladin expects Langer Heinrich Mine to achieve a full transition to steady-state mining and processing operations by the end of FY2026. The company is monitoring geopolitical risks but remains confident in its ability to meet revised production targets.

Management has highlighted its focus on operating discipline and plans to update investors on any impacts from global events or further changes to mining conditions as needed.

Paladin Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Paladin Energy shares have risen 211%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 15% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Paladin Energy hikes FY2026 outlook after Langer Heinrich ramp-up appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Insurance Australia Group’s RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review
• Alcoa posts Q1 2026 result
• Zip Co posts record cash EBTDA and upgrades FY26 guidance
• Meridian Energy shares: Strong customer growth in March
• ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) share price is on the move after the aluminium producer posted a net income of US$425 million for the first quarter of 2026, up from US$213 million in the previous quarter, and reported adjusted EBITDA (excluding special items) rising to US$595 million.

What did Alcoa report?

• Revenue of US$3.2 billion for Q1 2026, down 7% from Q4 2025
• Net income attributable to Alcoa: US$425 million (US$1.60 per share), up from US$213 million
• Adjusted net income: US$373 million (US$1.40 per share)
• Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items: US$595 million, up from US$527 million
• Cash balance at quarter end: US$1.4 billion
• No dividend announced for the quarter

What else do investors need to know?

Alcoa reported that alumina production fell 5% sequentially, mainly due to maintenance at Australian refineries, while aluminium output was steady compared to the previous quarter. The company faced shipping delays and lower third-party alumina sales, in part due to Middle East unrest and Cyclone Narelle.

On the capital management front, Alcoa issued a notice to redeem the remaining US$219 million of its 6.125% senior notes due 2028, aiming to strengthen its balance sheet with available cash. The company also safely completed the restart of its San Ciprián smelter in Spain during April 2026, highlighting its operational resilience.

What did Alcoa management say?

Alcoa President and CEO William F. Oplinger said:

Our experienced team performed very well managing the impacts from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle. We delivered a solid quarter excluding shipment timing impacts, which we expect to realize in the second quarter of 2026.

What’s next for Alcoa?

Looking ahead, Alcoa expects full-year 2026 production and shipments in both its Alumina and Aluminium segments to remain in line with previous forecasts. The company’s focus is on operational stability, especially after the San Ciprián smelter restart, and on optimising costs in the face of variable energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

Management flagged shipment timing impacts that are anticipated to benefit results in the second quarter, with higher aluminium prices and product premiums also expected to help earnings. Alcoa maintains an active approach to capital allocation, continuing debt reduction and investments to support long-term growth.

Alcoa share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Alcoa shares have risen 163%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 15% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Alcoa posts Q1 2026 result appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Insurance Australia Group’s RAC Insurance deal faces ACCC Phase 2 review
• Paladin Energy hikes FY2026 outlook after Langer Heinrich ramp-up
• Zip Co posts record cash EBTDA and upgrades FY26 guidance
• Meridian Energy shares: Strong customer growth in March
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX) looked unstoppable to start April.

The ASX heavyweight surged 11% in the first two weeks of the month, riding a wave of optimism. But that rally hit a wall on Thursday, when the stock dropped 4.2% to $28, making it one of the day’s biggest laggards.

So, is this just a minor hiccup for James Hardie shares, or a sign that the momentum has already fizzled out?

Risks investors shouldn’t ignore

The reality is that James Hardie shares are not without its challenges.

The biggest concern remains its heavy exposure to the US housing market. If housing starts slow — or simply stay weak — demand for building materials could soften. That’s been a key factor weighing on the share price recently, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

There are also execution risks tied to its acquisition of AZEK. Integrating a large business is never simple. Management needs to merge operations smoothly, extract promised synergies, and keep costs under control. Any stumble here could quickly show up in earnings.

And then there’s the broader backdrop. Investor sentiment toward cyclical and industrial stocks has been shaky. Even strong companies can get dragged lower when the market mood turns cautious, adding another layer of volatility for shareholders.

Strong foundations still in place

Despite those risks, it would be a mistake to write off James Hardie shares too quickly.

The roughly $15 billion company remains the global leader in fibre cement siding and trim, with a dominant position in the US — its most important market. That scale delivers real advantages, including pricing power and a competitive moat that few rivals can match.

Operationally, the business is still performing well. In its latest quarterly update, net sales jumped 30% to $1.24 billion for the three months to 31 December 2025. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to $329.9 million. Those are not the numbers of a company in trouble.

There’s also a compelling long-term growth story unfolding.

The AZEK acquisition has significantly expanded James Hardie’s addressable market. It’s no longer just a siding business. It’s building a broader outdoor living platform across decking, railing, and exterior solutions. If management executes well, this could unlock a new phase of growth.

What do experts think?

Most brokers are upbeat on James Hardie shares and rate them a buy. They have set an average 12-month price target of $39.53, which points to a potential gain of 41% at current levels.

According to broker Morgans, the outlook remains attractive. The firm has a buy rating on James Hardie with a price target of $45.75. Based on the current share price of $28.00, that implies potential upside of roughly 63%, That’s a sizeable vote of confidence.

Foolish Takeaway

Short-term momentum may have stalled, and risks are clearly in play. But the underlying business still looks robust, with strong market positioning and meaningful growth drivers.

For investors, the key question isn’t whether the share price dipped this week, it’s whether the long-term story remains intact. Right now, the answer appears to be yes.

The post Warning sign? James Hardie shares may be losing momentum appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why the recent ASX share market selloff is a wealth-building opportunity
• Are these ASX blue chips now too cheap to ignore?
• 3 ASX shares down 25% (or more) to buy right now
• Down 25%! Is this resurgent ASX 200 stock a strong buy?
• Why are James Hardie shares storming higher today?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been on a wild ride.

The mining giant surged to a 52-week high of $59.39 in early March, only to tumble to roughly $47 soon after. But that wasn’t the end of the story.

Over the past three weeks, BHP shares have clawed their way back to $55.66 at the time of writing, capping off a remarkable 54% gain over the past 12 months.

So, has the easy money already been made, or is there more upside ahead?

Let’s start with the positives

BHP remains one of the lowest-cost producers globally. That’s a huge advantage in a cyclical industry where margins can swing sharply. When commodity prices fall, higher-cost operators feel the pain first. BHP, thanks to its scale and efficiency, can keep generating profits through the cycle.

Then there’s copper. This is where the long-term story gets compelling. As electrification accelerates and the global energy transition gathers pace, demand for copper is expected to surge. BHP has significant exposure to this theme, positioning it to benefit from a powerful structural tailwind.

Add in a strong balance sheet and consistent cash generation, and it’s easy to see why BHP shares remain a core holding for many private and institutional investors. This is a business built to endure — and potentially thrive — through volatility.

Rising energy and labour cost

But there are risks. BHP is highly cyclical and closely tied to global growth. More specifically, it remains heavily reliant on demand from China. If Chinese economic activity slows or stimulus falls short, commodity prices could weaken. That would quickly flow through to earnings.

There are also external pressures to consider. Geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and labour inflation all have the potential to squeeze margins.

So what do the experts think?

According to TradingView data, sentiment is mixed but still leans cautiously positive. Twelve analysts rate BHP shares as a hold, while seven have buy or strong buy recommendations. Two sit on the bearish side with sell ratings.

The average 12-month price target is $52.68, below current levels, implying a 5.2% downside from here. That suggests the market sees limited short-term upside after the recent rebound.

But the bulls are still out there. The most optimistic forecasts see BHP climbing to $65.02 and comfortably clear that $60 barrier. This bullish outlook points to a potential gain of around 17% from current price levels.

Foolish Takeaway

BHP shares have already delivered strong gains, and the recent rebound has closed much of the gap to record highs.

Breaking through $60 isn’t out of the question, but it will likely require supportive commodity prices, stable global growth, and continued demand from China.

The post Can BHP shares smash through the $60 record barrier in April? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.