Category: Stock Market

The team at Morgans has released a number of broker notes this week covering well-known ASX shares.

Let’s see if its analysts rate the following three shares as buys, holds, or sells. Here’s what you need to know:

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

Morgans was pleased with this investment platform provider’s contract win with Morgan Stanley. It believes this is a testament to the quality of its offering.

However, it isn’t quite enough for a buy rating. Morgans has put an accumulate rating (between buy and hold) and $27.50 price target on Netwealth’s shares. It commented:

NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits. We reiterate our Accumulate rating with a A$27.50 PT.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The broker has initiated coverage on Qantas shares this week. It highlights that FY 2027 is going to be a transitional year, with FY 2028 expected to be higher growth. 

As a result, Morgans has put an accumulate rating and $11.50 price target on the airline operator. It said:

Qantas’s post-COVID balance sheet strengthening and cost discipline have positioned it to absorb the current fuel cost shock and consumer softness with genuine resilience. We forecast 2H26 PBT to be down on pcp as fuel and economic conditions bite, with FY27 forecast to deliver a moderate uplift. We view FY27 as a transition year for Qantas with higher growth expected from FY28 onwards as oil prices, refining margins and demand normalise. Structural growth drivers (fleet renewal, Project Sunrise, Loyalty scaling toward FY30 target) remain intact. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and an A$11.50ps price target.

Silver Mines Ltd (ASX: SVL)

Another ASX share that Morgans has initiated coverage on its silver developer Silver Mines.

It is a fan of the company and sees significant potential in its Bowdens Silver Project in New South Wales. This has seen the broker put a speculative buy rating and 40 cents price target on Silver Mines shares, which is more than triple its current share price. It explains:

Silver Mines is advancing the 100%-owned Bowdens Silver Project in the Central West region of NSW, Australia’s largest undeveloped silver project and one of the largest primary silver development assets globally, underpinned by a 334Moz AgEq Mineral Resource and 71.7Moz Ag Ore Reserve. Our thesis rests on what we view as an increasingly compelling asymmetry in Bowdens’ risk-reward profile, underpinned by exceptional leverage to a strengthening silver price, a technically mature development plan and a more clearly defined permitting pathway. Despite this improving outlook, the stock continues to trade at a material discount to our assessed intrinsic value. 

We see the improving silver market, permitting progress and the approaching DFS collectively driving a period of meaningful value creation. We initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a target price of A$0.40 per share.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Netwealth, Silver Mines, and Qantas shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 7 ASX shares catching broker upgrades this week
• Why these ASX shares could rise 20% to 30%
• Broker tips 20% and 23% upside for these 2 ASX stocks
• New parents are now earning superannuation on parental leave. Here’s how to make the most of it

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX bank shares have been one of the market’s favourite hiding spots for years. But after a huge run in the past five years, one major broker thinks investors may be overstaying their welcome.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has slapped sell ratings on three of Australia’s biggest banks – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

The common theme? Valuations have raced ahead of fundamentals.

In other words, the broker isn’t questioning whether these are great businesses. It simply believes investors are paying too much for them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

If Morgan Stanley had a least-favourite ASX bank share, CBA would probably wear the crown. In 2026, CBA shares have risen 4.7% in 2026 to $168.11 but are down 6% over 12 months.

The broker has a target price of $125 on CBA shares, implying around 26% downside from current levels.

Why so bearish? The biggest issue is valuation. CBA trades on the richest price-to-earnings multiple of any major Australian bank despite operating in a mature, highly competitive market.

Morgan Stanley also sees pressure on net interest margins, slowing earnings growth and limited upside from here after years of strong share price performance.

That doesn’t mean CBA is suddenly a bad business. Far from it.

It remains Australia’s largest bank, with market-leading positions in home lending, deposits and digital banking. It also consistently delivers industry-leading profitability, strong capital generation and fully franked dividends.

Quality isn’t the problem. The price investors are paying for that quality is.

Westpac Banking Corp

Westpac shares have also enjoyed a solid run, climbing 4.6% over the past month. They’re still down 6% this year, but remain almost 9% higher than a year ago.

Morgan Stanley believes the stock could fall around 13%, assigning a price target of $31.50.

The main risks for this ASX bank share are margin pressure, fierce competition for mortgages and deposits, and limited earnings growth as key risks. Banks continue to fight aggressively for customers, making it harder to grow profits without sacrificing pricing.

Still, Westpac has plenty going for it. Its large retail banking franchise provides stable earnings, while ongoing investments in technology and simplification should gradually improve efficiency.

Like its peers, it also offers an attractive, fully franked dividend that continues to appeal to income-focused investors.

National Australia Bank

NAB has been the strongest performer of the trio recently, jumping 9% over the past month.

Even so, Morgan Stanley isn’t buying the rally of the ASX bank share. Its $34.50 price target suggests roughly 12% downside from current levels.

The broker believes business banking competition is intensifying, while slowing economic growth could eventually weigh on business lending demand and bad debts. Rising operating costs also remain a challenge.

On the positive side, NAB arguably boasts Australia’s strongest business banking franchise. Its deep relationships with small and medium-sized businesses provide a competitive advantage that’s difficult to replicate.

Combined with a solid balance sheet and dependable dividend payments, NAB remains a high-quality bank despite the broker’s concerns.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley’s message is clear: great businesses don’t always make great investments when expectations become too optimistic.

For long-term investors already holding these ASX bank shares, there’s little reason to panic. But for those thinking of buying today, it may be worth asking whether too much good news is already reflected in the share prices.

The post Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• I’d buy these 5 ASX dividend investments for retirement income
• These ASX shares could generate $10,000 per year in passive income

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX 200 is dominated by two blue-chip companies:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

These companies are the largest ASX-listed stocks by market cap. For this reason, they make up a fundamental part of many investors’ portfolios.

You might own these shares without even knowing it 

Many Australians own shares in BHP and Commonwealth Bank without ever buying them directly. 

This is because their superannuation funds and many ASX-listed ETFs automatically invest in the largest companies on the Australian share market. 

Since BHP and Commonwealth Bank are among the largest companies in the ASX, they’re common holdings in diversified super funds and broad-market ETFs, meaning millions of Australians have exposure to these shares simply through their retirement savings or index investments.

According to a recent report, these two companies account for almost 20% of the ASX 200 index. 

So if you own an ASX 200 or 300 tracking ETF, the performance of CBA and BHP shares have a big impact on the performance of your portfolio. 

A wide gap in 2026

Despite the two companies being vital parts of portfolios, they have performed very differently so far this year. 

BHP shares have risen by 24% year to date, while CBA shares are up just 4%. 

BHP’s 2026 rally has been driven by genuine structural tailwinds. 

Copper prices have surged on electrification, AI-driven data centre demand, and grid upgrades. For the first time in the company’s history, copper now contributes more than half of group earnings. 

A resilient iron ore price has added further support, giving BHP two strong earnings engines rather than one and thanks to the operating leverage inherent in mining, that extra revenue flows largely to the bottom line and the dividend. 

Meanwhile, CBA’s flat performance reflects a different dynamic: the bank continues to deliver solid results, with growing cash earnings and healthy lending volumes, but it already trades at a significant valuation premium to its big four peers. 

So are these shares a buy? Here is the glass half full and glass half empty case for both.

The bull and bear case

For those looking for a reason to buy BHP shares, the bull case is simple: Copper and iron ore prices are strong, and copper demand looks set to keep growing thanks to AI, data centres, and electrification. 

However on the flip side, BHP shares have already risen 50% in the last 12 months. 

This means much of the good news may be priced in. Furthermore, a pullback in copper or iron ore prices, or rising costs on projects could quickly compress margins.

Meanwhile, for CBA shares optimists would argue CBA’s premium valuation is earned through best-in-class execution, a dominant deposit franchise, superior technology investment, and consistent market share gains in a stable banking sector. 

However, bears see a stock priced for perfection, trading well above peers. 

This suggests limited room for further upside – and outsized downside risk if growth disappoints or Australian housing conditions deteriorate.

The post The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• China’s CPI and PPI data drops today. Here is the potential impact for these ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX consumer discretionary stock Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) soared 10% yesterday. 

Jumbo Interactive operates Oz Lotteries, a reseller of digital lottery tickets (e.g., Powerball, Oz Lotto) in Australia, and provides lottery software platforms and lottery management expertise to government and charity lotteries, primarily in Australia, the UK, and Canada.

Investors were jumping on board after the company released an updated FY26 outlook.

The 10% rise was a welcome change for investors as the lottery company has seen its share price fall almost 40% year to date.

What did the company report?

Yesterday, the consumer discretionary company provided an update to its FY26 Outlook ahead of the scheduled release of its FY26 results on 27 August 2026.

• Dream UK: EBITDA for the 8.5-month period has been revised down to £7.0-7.3m (previously £8.0-8.3m).
• Dream US: EBITDA for the 8-month period has been upgraded to US$5.2-5.5m (prev. US$2.7m-3.0m).

Dream UK and Dream US are lottery businesses that Jumbo Interactive has acquired. 

What is Bell Potter’s view?

Following the announcement, Bell Potter provided updated guidance on the consumer discretionary stock. 

Commenting on the release, Bell Potter said the downgrade of Dream UK reflects increased business investment during the founder transition period, new market-testing initiatives, and seasonality. 

Despite this, the business remains on a strong trajectory with expected annualised year-on-year growth of between 20% and 25%.

Meanwhile, commenting on the Dream US update, the broker said this strong performance was driven by an increased number of draws (29 draws in FY26e vs 16 previously) and favourable draw timing. 

JIN will migrate Dream US onto the Jumbo Lottery Platform (JLP) and a new app in 1Q27. We are pleased that JIN is already seeing revenue synergies in this business and are incrementally more confident of further synergies following JLP integration.

Minimal upside for ASX consumer discretionary stock

Despite the 10% jump in share price yesterday, Bell Potter appears to see this as a one off spike rather than a sign of further growth. 

The broker has retained its hold recommendation on the ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

It has slightly raised its price target to $7.20 (previously $7.10). 

From yesterday’s closing price of $7.18, this indicates little to no upside in the next 12 months. 

Although we are encouraged with the improvement in Dream US and Stride, we continue to see risks to market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock.

The post Is this ASX consumer discretionary stock a buy after jumping 10% yesterday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As we pass the halfway mark of the calendar year, exploring the top-performing ASX ETFs can be a great way to assess which sectors and markets are performing well in 2026. 

Global conflict, inflation and high interest rates have dominated headlines this year. 

These have weighed on markets here in Australia. 

As a result, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen just 0.4% year to date. 

However, there have been several ASX ETFs that have shaken headwinds and raced ahead of Australia’s benchmark index. 

Here are three in particular that have performed well this year. 

Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI)

An emerging theme this year has been the surge in semiconductor-related companies. 

A semiconductor is a material like silicon that can be precisely controlled to conduct or block electricity. This lets engineers build the tiny transistor switches that make up computer chips. 

It’s critical to the AI buildout because every bit of AI training and inference runs on these chips.

This ASX ETF has harnessed this momentum and enjoyed a rise of 66% year to date. 

The fund from Global X seeks to invest in companies that stand to potentially benefit from the broader adoption of tech-enabled devices that require semiconductors. 

Investors have been using a “picks and shovels” approach to AI, which has benefited this fund. 

During a gold rush, the safer bet isn’t panning for gold yourself, it’s selling the pickaxes to everyone who is. 

Investors are applying the same logic to AI. They are essentially moving money into companies that supply the AI buildout rather than betting on which AI application or model wins.

Global X Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: BUGG)

Another strong-performing fund this year has been this cybersecurity-focused ETF.

It seeks to invest in companies that stand to benefit from the increased adoption of cybersecurity technology, particularly those whose principal business is in the development and management of security protocols preventing intrusion and attacks on systems, networks, applications, computers, and mobile devices.

Increasing reliance on digital ecosystems has left individuals, businesses, and governments vulnerable to the exponential rise of cyber threats, and this has led to increased investment in the sector. 

This growth has led to a 21% rise for this fund year to date. 

Betashares Global Momentum ETF (ASX: GTUM)

This ASX ETF is one of the newest funds on the ASX – listing in February this year. 

In just a short span, it has made a big impact, rising 18% in that period. 

GTUM aims to track the performance of an index (before fees and expenses) comprising a portfolio of global developed markets companies (excluding Australia) with above average momentum scores, as measured by risk-adjusted returns.

The Index ranks stocks within the eligible universe based on 6 and 12-month risk adjusted returns to target more sustainable positive momentum over sharp, highly volatile run-ups. 

Stocks displaying consistently strong positive momentum over recent history are rewarded with higher weights in the index.

The post 3 of the best ASX ETFs to own right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares closed around 1% higher on Thursday afternoon, at $125.53 a piece.

The increase continues the biotech company’s strong rally over the past month or so. 

The shares have now climbed around 26% over the past month, and have now rebounded 36% from a 10-year low in early June.

It’s good news for investors, but there is still some way to go before the stock recoups the huge losses it shed this year.

Even after the rebound, CSL shares are still down 27% for the year-to-date, and are 48% lower than 12 months ago.

Why are CSL shares finally rebounding?

It looks like investors have finally recognised that the ASX healthcare share reached a price point well below fair value.

After such a huge share price drop in early 2026, it looks like even nervous investors now consider that the bad news and earnings outlook downgrade is priced in. 

Momentum has picked up pace recently as bargain-hunting investors take advantage of opportunities in oversold stocks.

But can it keep going?

Can they keep climbing higher?

I think the latest increase shows that investors are now looking forward to whether management can improve operations, and if so, what CSL’s FY27 and FY28 earnings might look like.

I think there is a lot of potential too. After all, CSL is operating in a high-growth market, and its blood plasma division dominates the market for rare blood disorders and immunoglobulin products. 

Global demand for plasma therapies is strong and growing, too. There is recurring demand and limited competition, which makes CSL well-placed to carve out a significant portion of the market.

I think that once CSL is able to turn around its financials, investor confidence will follow.

Here’s what the experts tip for CSL shares

Market sentiment for CSL shares looks to have shifted slightly, and analysts are now divided about how much further they can climb.

Although they do agree there will be some element of upside ahead.

Market Index data shows most brokers (seven out of nine) have a hold rating on CSL shares. However, the $131.48 target price implies a potential 4% upside, at the time of writing.

TradingView data also shows that, of 18 analysts, 10 have a hold rating and another eight have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. 

The average $140.15 target price implies a potential 11% upside at the time of writing. However, some analysts tip the ASX healthcare shares to fall around 17% to $104.55, while others forecast CSL shares to jump around 58% higher to $199.68, at the time of writing.

Morgans is one optimistic broker. It has a buy rating with a price target of $147.59.

The team at Macquarie is more cautious. The broker has a lower price target of $114 and a neutral stance. It cites uncertainty across CSL’s core plasma and albumin businesses, as well as ongoing competitive pressures.

The post Up 36%: Can CSL shares keep rebounding? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• The only 3 ASX blue-chip shares I’d buy and hold until 2036
• July is historically one of the best months for ASX shares. Can July FY27 deliver?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Superannuation can be a powerful place to build passive income for retirement.

It gives investors a long time horizon, tax advantages, and the ability to keep compounding returns over many years.

But how much super would someone actually need to generate $52,000 per year in passive income?

Let’s break it down.

$52,000 per year in passive income

A passive income target of $52,000 per year works out to $1,000 a week or around $4,333 per month.

That could be a useful amount for many retirees. It could help cover everyday living costs, bills, insurance, travel, healthcare, or simply provide more breathing room in retirement.

This would leave most Australians well-placed for a comfortable retirement.

How much superannuation is needed?

If a superannuation portfolio generated a 3% dividend yield, it would need to be worth around $1.73 million to produce $52,000 per year in passive income.

That is a large amount of money, but it is worth noting that the required balance falls as the portfolio yield rises.

A 4% yield would require a balance of around $1.3 million. A 5% yield would require approximately $1.04 million. A 6% yield would need about $867,000, while a 7% yield would require roughly $743,000.

That shows why yield makes such a big difference.

The same $52,000 income target can require a very different super balance depending on the investments selected.

Should investors chase the highest yield?

A higher yield can make the numbers look more achievable, but it can also introduce more risk.

The highest-yielding ASX shares are not always the safest income options.

Sometimes a very high dividend yield appears because the share price has fallen sharply and the market expects the dividend to be cut. In other cases, the company may be under pressure from weaker earnings, rising debt, lower commodity prices, or a cyclical downturn.

A better approach is to look for income that can be sustained. That means focusing on companies with reliable cash flow, sensible payout ratios, strong balance sheets, and businesses that can continue operating through different economic conditions.

A portfolio built only around maximum yield can become fragile. But a portfolio built around quality income has a better chance of lasting.

What could a passive income portfolio include?

ASX shares can be useful inside superannuation because many pay dividends and some come with franking credits.

Large banks, infrastructure shares, property trusts, telecommunications companies, retailers, and listed investment companies can all play a role.

Examples could include income-focused blue chips such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), or Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).

Investors looking for property or infrastructure-style income might consider names such as Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW), APA Group (ASX: APA), or Transurban Group (ASX: TCL).

Listed investment companies and dividend-focused ETFs can also help spread income across a wider range of holdings.

Foolish takeaway

A $52,000 annual passive income stream from superannuation is possible, but it generally requires a sizeable portfolio.

The rough balance needed could range from about $743,000 at a 7% yield to $1.73 million at a 3% yield.

Most investors may prefer to sit somewhere in the middle, balancing income with quality, diversification, and long-term capital preservation.

But it is always worth remembering that the goal is not just to reach $52,000 in one year. It is to build an income stream that can keep supporting retirement for many years to come.

The post How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Wesfarmers shares are closing in on record highs. Buy, hold or sell?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
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• How to build $60,000 in annual passive income from ASX dividend shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group, Telstra Group, and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

US stocks operate on a different fiscal year cycle from S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares.

However, as so many of us are invested in both markets, it’s relevant to compare their performance over a given period.

So, let’s canvas what happened in the Australian financial year (FY26) from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026.

Let’s compare…

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares increased 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26. 

The S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) rose 2.43% and provided total returns of 5.69%, according to S&P Global data.

By comparison, the S&P 500 Index (SP: INX) rose by 20.86% and delivered total returns of 22.32%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) ascended 28.69% and gave a total return of 30.55%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX: .DJI) rose 18.65% and delivered a total return of 20.65%.

Why did US stocks outperform ASX 200 shares?

Drew Meredith from Wattle Partners says it comes down to America’s leading position in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

In an article in The Golden Times, Meredith explained:

The United States market is being driven by a small number of companies with outsized earnings power, almost all tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon have delivered earnings growth that justifies, at least in part, the premium valuations US indices now carry.

Meanwhile, ASX 200 shares struggled to grow in FY26 amid resurgent inflation, three interest rate hikes in February, March, and May (reversing the impact of one cut in August), the energy crisis, and weak consumer confidence.

On top of that, fears of an AI bubble and a SaaSpocalypse weighed on our tech sector, which dove 37% in FY26.

ASX 200 healthcare shares also tumbled 37% amid many industry challenges, including a weaker US currency impacting global players.

Meredith says the Federal Budget’s CGT reform package, announced in May, has also weighed on financial shares and property, too.

Can the US markets keep delivering?

Shaun Manuell, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at AustralianSuper, isn’t ready to call the top of the US stock market yet.

In the Weekend Australian, Manuell described US equities being in the “rational exuberance phase”.

He said:

The retail investor is back in the US, and I think there’s a lot of weight behind that.

When the US equity market gets going it’s a very, very powerful engine. So, I wouldn’t be calling the top of that just yet.

As for ASX 200 shares, Manuell is not optimistic for FY27.

It’ll be another challenging year; you’re going to have to be really careful in the sectors.

We know consumer sentiment’s down, house prices are down, and that leads through to the wealth effect as well.

Manuell said AusSuper is “slightly overweight” US stocks, and underweight ASX shares compared to global stocks.

He likes ASX 200 mining shares but is underweight bank stocks.

Should you buy US stocks?

Meredith warns against ‘recency bias’ and any temptation investors may feel to switch out of ASX 200 shares in order to buy US stocks.

Meredith explains:

When one market dramatically outperforms another for two or three years, investors feel they were wrong to be diversified. That feeling is not evidence. It is recency bias.

The periods of sharpest US outperformance relative to global peers have consistently been followed by periods of mean reversion.

This happened after the dot-com peak in 2000. It happened in the early years after the GFC when US banks were recovering and Australian miners were printing money.

It does not happen on a schedule you can predict, which is precisely why systematic diversification matters more than tactical shifts.

Manuell says his team is eyeing off a recent pullback in the Magnificent Seven US stocks as a potential buying opportunity.

He also said he is more comfortable investing in the “picks and shovels” of the AI revolution, commenting:

Everyone’s been playing the picks and shovels because they can see there’s money to be made but this is just making the infrastructure.

Once we’ve got the infrastructure, what’s going to happen? Nobody knows…

3-year snapshot of ASX 200 shares vs. US stocks

Total returns	FY24	FY25	FY26
ASX 200	11.44%	13.81%	7%
ASX All Ords	11.44%	13.23%	5.69%
S&P 500	25.02%	15.16%	22.32%

The post ASX 200 shares vs. US stocks in FY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a subdued session and finished lower. The benchmark index fell 0.25% to 8,762.5 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a good night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 8 points or 0.1% higher this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.25%, the S&P 500 is up 0.75%, and the Nasdaq is 1.25% higher.

Oil prices slide

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor finish to the week after oil prices pulled back overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.85% to US$72.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.1% to US$76.42 a barrel. This has been driven by a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Hold Jumbo shares

Bell Potter thinks Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) shares are fully valued following a strong gain on Thursday. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating with an improved price target of $7.20. In response to the release of a trading update, Bell Potter said: “Although we are encouraged with the improvement in Dream US and Stride, we continue to see risks to market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock. Additional risks include SaaS AI disruption and TLC reseller renewal risk.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.25% to US$4,133.9 an ounce. A pullback in oil prices has reduced inflation and interest-rate hike fears.

Accumulate Netwealth shares

Morgans sees value in Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares at current levels. In response to a deal with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the broker has reiterated its accumulate rating with a $27.50 price target. It commented: “NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 7 ASX shares catching broker upgrades this week
• Is the ASX 200 heading for a third straight fall as oil prices jump?
• 9 ASX 200 shares downgraded by analysts this week
• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It was yet another negative session for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX shares this Thursday, the fourth red session for the Australian markets in a row this week.

After opening sharply lower at the start of morning trading, the ASX 200 did recover a little over the day. But it wasn’t nearly enough to save investors from a loss. By the time trading finished, the index had lost 0.26% and closed at 8,762.5 points.

This depressing Thursday for the local markets came after a mixed night over on the US markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) wasn’t in a good place, dropping 1.09%.

However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared far better, rising 0.2%.

Let’s get back to the local markets now and check out how today’s tough trading conditions have percolated down into the various ASX sectors.

Winners and losers

Despite the market’s bad mood this Thursday, there were plenty of sectors that were spared from a sell-down.

But first, it was mining stocks that got slammed the hardest today. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) ended up crashing 1.48% lower.

Gold shares had another rough one too, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) tumbling 1.24%.

We can say the same for real estate investment trusts (REITs). The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) sank 1.1% by the closing bell.

Financial stocks were a little better, though, as illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ)’s 0.15% slip.

Turning to the green sectors now, energy shares had a blowout. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) ended up surging 1.67% higher.

Utilities stocks also ran hot, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) soaring 1.28%.

Consumer staples shares were solid. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) galloped 0.97% higher this session.

Tech stocks were in demand too, as you can see by the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ)’s 0.92% bounce.

Communications shares fared decently. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) added 0.89% to its total today.

As did consumer discretionary stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) advancing 0.58%.

Healthcare shares stayed afloat. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) lifted 0.13% this Thursday.

Finally, industrial stocks got over the line, evident from the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)’s 0.12% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today’s top stock was building supplies company Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU). Fletcher shares rocketed 7.55% this session to $2.99 each.

This followed the stock releasing some updated earnings guidance, which investors clearly appreciated.

Here’s how the other winners pulled up at the kerb: 

ASX-listed company	Share price	Price change
Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)	$2.99	7.55%
Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)	$20.14	5.56%
New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)	$5.22	5.45%
Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT)	$12.90	4.12%
Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)	$2.10	3.96%
Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA)	$2.29	3.62%
Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)	$44.49	3.47%
SRG Global Ltd (ASX: SRG)	$3.61	2.56%
Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)	$2.87	2.50%
Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)	$23.20	2.47%

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Is the ASX 200 heading for a third straight fall as oil prices jump?
• 3 ASX 200 shares with 50% to 100% upside in FY27
• Why are Fletcher Building shares flying 7% higher today?
• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa and Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and Srg Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.