Category: Stock Market

Despite all of the volatility this year, the ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price has delivered positive returns for shareholders in the last five years, as the chart below shows.

According to CMC Invest, it has delivered an average total shareholder return (TSR) of 11% in the past five years.

A significant portion of those returns has been the dividend payments, but the ASX bank share has also delivered adequate capital gains for investors.

How many ANZ shares we could buy in 2021

Five years ago, Australia’s economy and the ASX bank share sector was still dealing with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But, the ANZ share price had already recovered back to its pre-COVID levels as investors regained confidence following the significant market support by central banks.

So, five years ago, with $10,000 an Australian investor would have been able to buy 350 ANZ shares.

What about now?

Since April 2021, the ANZ share price has since risen to an all-time high of above $40, though it has since dropped back a bit amid the Iran war.

At the time of writing, in the last five years, the ANZ share price has climbed by 27%.

If someone were to invest $10,000 today into the ASX bank share, they’d only be able to buy 276 ANZ shares. In other words, approximately 25% less shares than before.

What caused the ANZ share price to rise?

There are two key factors that decide how a valuation moves – how much profit it generates and the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay.

The most recent update from the ASX bank share was the FY26 first quarter update where it reported $1.87 billion of statutory net profit and $1.9 billion of cash net profit. That compares to the FY21 first quarter where it generated $1.6 billion of statutory net profit and $1.8 billion of cash profit.

In other words, over five years, its first-quarter statutory net profit has increased 16.9% and the cash net profit has increased just over 5%.

Therefore, it seems to me like investors are willing to pay a higher price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the ASX bank share.

According to the projection on Commsec, the ANZ share price is now valued at 14x FY26’s estimated earnings.

The post 5 years ago, $10,000 bought 350 ANZ shares. But how many would it buy now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ANZ Bank shares push higher on acquisition news
• Which of the big four bank shares has the most upside?
• How to generate monthly income using ASX ETFs
• How does Morgans rate ANZ, BOQ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac shares?
• Buy, hold, sell: ANZ, NAB, and WiseTech shares

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) shares have delivered incredible returns for investors over the past 12 months.

During this time, the technology company’s shares have risen approximately 170%.

That would have turned a $10,000 investment into $27,000.

Is it too late to invest? Let’s see what Bell Potter is saying about the company and its shares.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter was impressed with Codan’s trading update this week, noting that its guidance was comfortably ahead of consensus expectations. It said:

CDA has provided a FY26 trading update which came in well ahead of both BPe and consensus. FY26 guidance exceeds expectations: The company provided FY26 group EBIT guidance of ~[$235m], 10-11% ahead of BPe and VA consensus expectations and represents 76% YoY growth. CDA also guided to NPAT of ~[$170m], a +11% beat vs. VA consensus.

The broker was particularly pleased with the performance of Codan’s Communications segment, which is experiencing strong demand from defence customers. It adds:

Expected to hit the top end of the 15% to 20% growth range for FY26. DTC (unmanned segment) is seeing strong demand from defence customers for software-defined radios and unmanned systems. Zetron 2H26 revenue is tracking broadly in line with 1H26. Communications margins are expected to reach the 30% segment profit margin target in FY26, beating the original FY27 timeline. This is a step up from the 26% margin in FY25 and 1H26. The faster than expected margin expansion is driven by operating leverage with strong revenue growth being delivered, particularly in DTC.

This has led to the broker boosting its earnings forecasts through to FY 2028. It explains:

EPS changes are +11%/+8%/+5% over FY26/27/28e reflecting upgraded revenue in Communications and Minelab as well as expanded Communications margins across the forecast period.

Is it too late to buy Codan shares?

Bell Potter thinks that Codan’s shares are fairly valued following their significant rise.

According to the note, the broker has retained its hold rating with an improved price target of $41.30 (from $37.70). This is slightly below its current share price of $42.00.

Commenting on its recommendation, Bell Potter concludes:

We retain our Hold recommendation and increase TP to $41.30 in line with higher earnings. With relatively high levels of R&D spend strengthening CDA’s competitive advantages across its businesses, CDA is well positioned to benefit from increased demand for mission-critical connectivity solutions in both defence and public safety markets. We believe CDA shares trade at fair value on 33x FY26 EV / EBIT amidst improving operating momentum and improving outlook in both segments.

The post Up 170% in a year: Are Codan shares a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why 29Metals, Aurelia Metals, Codan, and oOhMedia shares are racing higher today
• Up 13% today. Here’s why this $6.6 billion ASX stock is on the move again
• Codan FY26 earnings surge more than 60% on strong communications segment

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s been a tough 2026 for many ASX healthcare stocks. 

However, one exciting small-cap that is drawing attention from brokers is Alcidion Group Ltd (ASX: ALC). 

Company overview

Alcidion is a commercial healthcare IT company with a cloud-native, modular software platform aimed at improving efficiency in hospitals, supporting interoperability, and allowing for improved communication and task management. It also aims to deliver critical clinical decision support at the point of care to improve patient outcomes.

The key platform is known as Miya Precision, and under this platform, an increasing number of modules are available.

The team at Bell Potter has a buy recommendation on the company following its Q3 FY26 Quarterly Activities Report.

What did this healthcare stock report?

Yesterday, Alcidion announced: 

• Q3 FY26 positive operating cash flow of $1.7M driven by cash receipts of $14.5M
• Selected as preferred provider for University Hospital Sussex NHS Foundation Trust’s (UHSussex) new EPR solution – the contract remains on track for signing in May 2026
• As of 31 March 2026, FY26 contracted (sold & renewal) revenue of $43.8M (excluding UHSussex)

The company also reconfirmed FY26 financial guidance of:

• Revenue expected to exceed $50.0M with EBITDA in excess of $5.0M; and
• Operating cash flow to remain positive, in line with FY25 operating cash flow of $5.8M

Speaking on the results, Alcidion CEO and Managing Director, Kate Quirke, said: 

Q3 maintained the positive and sustained momentum for Alcidion, with contract expansions for our emergency department module, significant renewal contracts signed and importantly our first site in QLD for Miya Precision.

Investors were seemingly pleased with these results as the share price jumped 7% yesterday. 

Bell Potter’s updated view

Following the results, the team at Bell Potter said it views revenue and EBITDA guidance as readily achievable, assuming the UHSussex deal is executed in May and includes a ~$7.5m upfront capital license payment similar to prior UK deal structures.

The broker has maintained its buy recommendation on this ASX technology stock and reaffirmed its 16-cent price target. 

From yesterday’s closing price of just over 10 cents per share, this indicates an upside potential of approximately 49%. 

ALC has a robust balance sheet position (>$20m cash expected at end-FY26) and is set to post a record full-year result which will benefit from the expected finalisation of one of the company’s largest ever contracts with UHSussex in Q4 FY26.

It’s also worth noting that small-cap stocks such as Alcidion Group can experience significantly more volatility than more established, blue-chip equities.

Therefore, investors should have appropriate risk appetite when considering these options.

The post This ASX healthcare stock could be set to rise 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Mesoblast shares: Cash burn falls and Ryoncil® sales climb
• Boss Energy shares tumble on guidance downgrade
• Why did Woolworths shares just crash 10%?
• ASX shares climb after CEO news. Here’s what investors are watching
• Regis Healthcare expects FY26 EBITDA to hit top end of guidance

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alcidion Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alcidion Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been tough going in 2026 for ASX industrials stock Reliance Worldwide Corp Ltd (ASX: RWC). 

Reliance Worldwide is an Australian-owned company that designs and manufactures branded plumbing and heating products sold internationally.

Year to date, its share price has fallen almost 16%. 

After crashing to start the year, investors may be circling this ASX industrials stock as a bounce-back candidate. 

Fresh information was released from the company this week in the form of its FY26 Full Year Trading Outlook.

What did the company announce?

On Tuesday, the team at Reliance Worldwide reaffirmed all earnings guidance, including regional and group outlooks, for 2H26 and FY26. 

Based on nine months trading ended 31 March 2026, there is no material change to the FY26 second half and full year guidance issued on 17 February 2026. All guidance – including regional and Group outlook, FY26 net tariff impact, cash flow conversion, capital expenditure, D&A, net interest, effective tax rate and cost savings – is reaffirmed.

It appears investors were pleased with the announcement, as this ASX industrials stock has rebounded 7% across the last two days of trading. 

Following the announcement, the team at Morgans also provided updated guidance on the ASX industrials stock. 

Here’s what the broker said. 

Trading update better than feared

In a note out of Morgans this week, the broker said that against an uncertain global macro backdrop and the potential impact of higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, the trading update was better than feared. 

In relation to the expected impact from US tariffs, while there have been several changes since the 1H26 result in February, the anticipated impact on RWC’s earnings in FY26 and FY27 remains unchanged.

Target price increases

Morgans made no changes to FY26 earnings forecasts but reduced FY27 and FY28 underlying EBITDA by 2%, reflecting a more modest earnings growth profile amid ongoing subdued housing conditions. 

Despite the adjustments to earnings forecasts, our target price increases to $3.25 (from $3.00), reflecting an uplift in our PE valuation multiple to 12x (from 11x) following the better-than-feared trading update. HOLD rating maintained.

After increasing its price target, it now appears that this ASX industrials stock is trading at fair value. 

It closed yesterday at $3.24, right around the updated target from Morgans. 

Elsewhere, the average analyst price of 16 experts via TradingView sits at $4.09. 

This indicates a potential upside of 26%. 

The post Should you buy this ASX industrials stock after a 16% crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Elsight, IperionX, Predictive Discovery, and Reliance shares are pushing higher today
• Why this beaten-down ASX industrial stock just spiked 7%
• Reliance Worldwide resets FY26 outlook, updates on tariffs and Middle East
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are looking for market-beating returns, then it could be worth considering the ASX All Ords share in this article.

That’s because Bell Potter believes it has the potential to deliver outsized returns over the next 12 months.

Which ASX All Ords share?

The share that Bell Potter is bullish on is GenusPlus Group Ltd (ASX: GNP).

It is a service provider to mining, utilities, and other private customers who have needs across electrical plant and equipment, power, and telecommunications infrastructure.

Bell Potter has been running the rule over the ASX All Ords share and likes what it sees. It believes the company has the potential to deliver revenue growth well ahead of expectations in FY 2027 based on its current orderbook. The broker said:

Deconstruction of GNP’s current orderbook of ~$2.5b (includes the recent $110m Koolunga BESS contract award), the expectation of expanding recurring revenue and forecast sales from recent acquisitions indicates that the company could deliver revenue growth of 27.9% in FY27 (vs BPe 17.7% and consensus 14.8%).

The variance with BPe and consensus expectations suggests major upgrade potential in the short-term. The caveat is that unexpected project delays may extend this upside into FY28. Strong conversion of the company’s $2.6b tender pipeline (at end of CY25) would drive incremental upside to our forecasts.

It also highlights that there is potential for some major contract awards in the near term, which it believes could be a catalyst for driving its shares higher. It adds:

GNP is tendering on three large scale transmission projects: the Hunter Transmission Project; the Gippsland Offshore Wind Transmission Project; and the New England REZ Transmission Project (Stage 1). Announcement of preferred contractors for each project is expected in CY26, representing significant catalysts. Given the capital costs of these projects, GNP’s share of contract award could be consistent with the HumeLink East work package (~$350m) or greater.

Buy rating reaffirmed

According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating on the ASX All Ords share with an improved price target of $10.50 (from $9.50).

Based on its current share price of $9.10, this implies potential upside of 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

GNP is a key beneficiary of Australia’s decarbonisation and electrification ambitions which is currently driving significant investment in renewable energy generation, storage and transmission infrastructure development. GNP’s financial flexibility allows the company to maintain an aggressive approach to inorganic growth.

The post Bell Potter is tipping this ASX All Ords share as a buy with 15% upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• This ASX stock just landed a $110 million battery project. Shares near record highs.
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended GenusPlus Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended GenusPlus Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Times of major market movements can open up unmissable buying opportunities, particularly with ASX dividend income stocks.

The recent worries about the Middle East conflict, fuel supply disruption, inflation, and interest rates have sent various share prices down.

When share prices drop, it pushes up the dividend yield on offer. So, I think it’s a great time to buy for brave investors.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

Let’s start with electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi, which has increased its annual dividend per share most years over the past decade and a half.

Australia’s growing population and the increasing number of devices in homes have given this market-leading business a strong earnings tailwind.

I admire how the ASX dividend income stock focuses on efficiency and costs, enabling the business to offer very competitive prices and deliver relatively strong margins.

Its JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys businesses continue to perform solidly, while the E&S acquisition gives it another avenue for expansion. In the January 2026 trading update, JB Hi-Fi Australian sales grew 4%, and The Good Guys sales were up 2.7%.

Following the 31% decline of the JB Hi-Fi share price in the past six months, it now has a projected FY26 grossed-up dividend yield of 6.3%, including franking credits.

Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK)

Nick Scali is a leading furniture business with its Nick Scali and Plush brands in Australia and, excitingly, a relatively small UK business too.

This ASX dividend income stock increased its payout every year between 2013 and 2023. Higher interest and inflation did impact the business, but I think the current Nick Scali share price valuation makes now a good time to buy, rather than when there’s a clear turnaround in economic conditions.

The company thinks it can add dozens more stores across Australia and the UK in the coming years, which can help drive both its revenue and profit margins. Increased scale is a powerful tailwind for the gross profit margin and operating profit (EBIT) margin, in my view.

The Nick Scali share price has dropped approximately 40% in the last six months, making it a lot cheaper. The projection on CommSec suggests the FY26 grossed-up dividend yield could be 7.4%, including franking credits.

Australian Ethical Investment Ltd (ASX: AEF)

The final ASX dividend income stock I want to highlight is Australian Ethical, a fund manager that aims to provide investors with investment products that align with their ethics.

I think a key earnings driver for the business is its superannuation segment, which has almost $10 billion of funds under management (FUM). I’m expecting the superannuation FUM to grow over time thanks to both regular member contributions and the investment returns.

As a funds management business, the company is able to deliver a pleasingly high dividend payout ratio and still achieve good growth. It’s not a capital-intensive sector.

According to the forecast on CMC Invest, the ASX dividend stock is forecast to pay an annual dividend per share of 17 cents in FY26. That translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.8%, including franking credits. It has fallen 40% in the past six months.

The post 3 star ASX dividend income stocks for the rest of 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bell Potter names the best ASX dividend shares to buy
• 2 wonderful ASX All Ords stocks I’d buy today
• Forget Westpac shares, I’d buy these ASX dividend stocks
• Would Warren Buffett buy this ASX 200 share?
• 3 ASX shares Bell Potter rates as top buys

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Australian Ethical Investment. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Australian Ethical Investment and Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is in focus after the company posted its strongest financial quarter since production began, with net cash flow of $33 million and revenues propelled by higher spodumene prices.

What did Liontown report?

• Positive net cash flow of $33 million for the March quarter
• Revenue of $197 million, up 51% quarter on quarter
• Operating cash flow of $55 million
• $424 million cash at quarter-end, with 26,270 dmt saleable concentrate on hand
• 1.5Mtpa underground mining run-rate achieved ahead of schedule
• Average realised spodumene price of US$1,845/dmt SC6e, up 87% on the previous quarter

What else do investors need to know?

Liontown has transitioned Kathleen Valley to a fully underground operation, reaching targeted production rates earlier than expected. Processing performance was stable, with improving lithium recoveries as the quarter progressed. The company’s balance sheet was further strengthened by the conversion of LG Energy Solution convertible notes, reducing liabilities by $482 million and delivering a net cash position of $61 million at 31 March 2026.

Liontown is progressing with growth plans by refreshing its expansion study for Kathleen Valley and has already commenced early works and procurement of long-lead items, aiming to expand production capacity. Environmental and safety performance remained positive, with further community engagement initiatives during the quarter.

What did Liontown management say?

Managing Director and CEO Tony Ottaviano said:

Liontown is generating positive net cash flow. The March Quarter delivered our strongest financial performance since production commenced, with $33 million of positive net cash flow driven by stronger spodumene market conditions flowing through to our contracted sales.

Operational performance is strong. A 1.5Mtpa annualised underground run-rate was achieved early in the quarter ahead of schedule and processing performed to expectation. We are on track to meet the FY2026 guidance we set the market.

The team is now building for what comes next. Our expansion study is underway with early works and long-lead procurement committed; we are finishing the financial year with genuine momentum in unlocking the full potential of Kathleen Valley.

What’s next for Liontown?

Looking ahead, Liontown plans to maintain strong operational momentum through FY2026, supported by stable underground production and sustained improvements in recoveries. The company’s refreshed expansion study is expected to pave the way for staged growth at Kathleen Valley, with a Final Investment Decision targeted by the end of Q1 FY2027.

Operational cash generation is forecast to remain robust, while cost optimisation programs are underway to further improve margins. Liontown remains on track to meet its current FY2026 guidance and is positioning itself for long-term growth.

Liontown share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Liontown shares have risen 359%, strongly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 7% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Liontown posts record net cash flow and hits underground mining targets appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Stockland reports higher 3Q26 sales and maintains FY26 guidance
• Woolworths Group Q3 sales grow as shoppers turn to value and convenience
• Mineral Resources upgrades FY26 volume guidance and posts robust lithium prices
• Champion Iron announces production gains and new growth projects
• South32 Hermosa project boosts reserves and mine life in FY26 update

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) share price is in focus after the company released its 3Q26 operational update, highlighting a lift in sales for both Masterplanned Communities (+43% year-on-year) and Land Lease Communities (+162%).

What did Stockland report?

• Finalised a joint venture with EdgeConneX for data centre development and secured key regulatory approvals for a new land lease partnership with M&G Real Estate.
• Delivered $600 million in commercial development completions year-to-date, including projects in NSW and Victoria.
• Retail town centres saw comparable moving annual turnover (MAT) up 3.8%, with specialty sales also up 3.9% versus last year.
• Logistics segment executed ~310,000 sqm of leases year-to-date, with positive re-leasing spreads of 31.1% and 96.1% portfolio occupancy.
• Maintained FY26 funds from operations (FFO) guidance at 36.0–37.0 cents per security and distributions at 25.2 cents per security.
• Gearing expected to approach the midpoint of the 20–30% target range with strong debt and liquidity positions.

What else do investors need to know?

Stockland’s development pipeline remains active, with three data centre projects progressing through NSW Government’s fast-track approval process. The business also completed the disposal of 16 Giffnock Avenue in Macquarie Park, NSW, aligning with book value.

In residential and land lease communities, both contract volumes and sales remain elevated. The group reports default and cancellation rates are consistent with long-term averages. In retail, high occupancy rates (99%) and sustainable occupancy costs (15.1%) point to resilient trading conditions despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

What’s next for Stockland?

Stockland is maintaining its FY26 guidance, expecting between 36.0 and 37.0 cents FFO per security and a 25.2 cent distribution, subject to no material change in market conditions. The group is targeting strong residential settlements: 7,500–8,500 lots in Masterplanned Communities and 700–800 homes in Land Lease Communities, each with operating margins in the low 20% range.

Management highlighted ongoing monitoring of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks that may impact transactions, supply chains, and consumer behaviour, but core strategy and targets remain unchanged for now.

Stockland share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Stockland shares have declined 26%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 7% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Stockland reports higher 3Q26 sales and maintains FY26 guidance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Liontown posts record net cash flow and hits underground mining targets
• Woolworths Group Q3 sales grow as shoppers turn to value and convenience
• Mineral Resources upgrades FY26 volume guidance and posts robust lithium prices
• Champion Iron announces production gains and new growth projects
• South32 Hermosa project boosts reserves and mine life in FY26 update

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX materials stocks have largely outperformed the broader market in 2026. 

At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) is up almost 10% this year compared to a flat return for the ASX 200.

This hasn’t translated to success for ASX materials stock Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL). 

The company is a mid-tier Australian gold producer and developer with 100% ownership of two key projects:

• Plutonic Gold Operation (PGO) – an operating asset in Western Australia
• Bendigo Gold Project (BGP) – an advanced exploration project in Victoria

This ASX materials stock has tumbled 23% year to date. 

This included a 6% crash yesterday. 

However, the team at Bell Potter is optimistic of a turnaround following the company’s Quarterly Activities Report.

What did Catalyst Metals report?

Yesterday, Catalyst Metals reported for the March quarter: 

• Plutonic gold production of 26,127oz for the quarter
• Discovery of a high-grade zone beneath existing Cinnamon Resource presents the opportunity for a sixth ore source at the Plutonic Gold Belt
• Acquisition of significant land package in the Bryah Basin – a neighbouring gold & base metal belt to Plutonic – creating an almost contiguous 190km tenement package surrounding the central processing facility at Plutonic
• Operating cash flow (after sustaining capital and corporate costs) was A$103m
• Cash and bullion at quarter end was A$277m, an increase of A$39m on the prior quarter, while reinvesting heavily in the Plutonic Gold Belt

Investors seemed displeased with the results, as the ASX mining stock slumped significantly during Wednesday’s trade.

What did Bell Potter have to say?

Following the results, the team at Bell Potter released updated guidance on this ASX materials stock. 

The broker said revenue was A$167.7m, which was a miss on its estimate of A$188m and consensus of $201.3m. 

According to Bell Potter, costs were the main issue, with higher-than-expected cash costs (A$2,485/oz) and AISC (A$2,853/oz). These were driven by downtime, lower volumes, and inflationary pressures, though the company still generated A$103m in operating cash flow and ended with A$277m cash and no debt. 

Operations are transitioning with heavy growth investment and upcoming improvements (including crusher upgrades and new mines).

While production guidance remains unchanged, full-year cost guidance has been significantly increased.

Upside intact 

Despite this guidance, the team at Bell Potter has maintained its buy recommendation and $14.60 price target on Catalyst Metals shares. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $5.65, that indicates an upside potential of 139%. 

This growth could seemingly be set to come in the long term.

Bell Potter has adjusted its earnings per share outlook.

Earnings per share are now expected to fall in FY26 by 19% and then recover and increase by 11% in FY27 and a further 14% in FY28.

The post Broker tips this ASX materials stock to rise 139% after yesterday’s crash appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Catalyst Metals, G8 Education, Meteoric Resources, and Westgold shares are falling today
• Why are Catalyst Metals shares sinking today?
• Could these ASX stocks double by the end of 2026?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have been strong performers over the past 12 months.

Since this time last year, the iron ore giant’s shares have risen approximately 25%.

Where next? Let’s see what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about the miner.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter was pleased with the company’s performance during the third quarter. It highlights that Fortescue delivered shipments ahead of expectations and costs that were lower than expected. It said:

FMG has reported total iron ore shipments of 48.4Mt for the March 2026 quarter at C1 cash costs of US$18.29/wmt (vs BPe 48.0Mt at C1 US$19.13/wmt). Shipments were down 4% QoQ following a strong December quarter but contributed to record total shipments of 148.7Mt for the 9 months to end March (in line with guidance and BPe). C1 costs were down 4% QoQ, tracking to the top half of FY26 guidance (US$17.50– US$18.50/wmt). Iron Bridge shipments of 2.0Mt were impacted by weather disruptions, resulting in its FY26 guidance being downgraded from 10-12Mt to 9-10Mt. Total shipment guidance of 195–205Mt remains unchanged.

However, while this was positive, Bell Potter has concerns over capital allocation relating to its green energy plans. It said:

FMG has approved a US$680m investment to develop the Pilbara Green Energy Project, a 200MW capacity, firmed green energy (solar and wind) grid in the Pilbara. FMG has cited potential demand from industrial users and data centres underpinning the commercial case for the project. However, in our view, it presents as a high risk, asymmetrical outcome opportunity that tests the limits of prudent capital allocation.

A remote, hot, cyclone-prone region with limited existing digital infrastructure, fibre connectivity, water for cooling, skilled labour and high logistics costs does not appear a competitive setting for a data centre. These are demanding applications, requiring +99.9% power supply uptime plus extremely tight frequency and voltage regulation. We see a high risk of future writedowns, as with past FMG energy projects.

Should you buy Fortescue shares?

According to the note, the broker has downgraded Fortescue shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $18.15 (from $20.30).

Based on the current share price of $20.22, this implies potential downside of 10% over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its downgrade, the broker said:

EPS changes in this report are: FY26: -3%; FY27: -9% and FY28: -5%. FMG’s core iron ore operations continue to perform very well and benefit from an elevated iron ore price. However, we anticipate higher costs to emerge in 2HCY26 as low-cost inventories are exhausted, putting pressure on earnings. We are wary of the “portfolio optimisation” review encompassing Iron Bridge. We drop our rating to Sell.

The post Fortescue shares: Buy, hold, or sell? Bell Potter gives its verdict appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Why Brainchip, Fortescue, IGO, and Life360 shares are tumbling today
• Why Newmont, PLS and Fortescue shares are grabbing headlines on Friday
• Guess which ASX iron ore stock could rise 85% (hint, not Fortescue shares)

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.