Category: Stock Market

On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended the day in the red. The benchmark index fell 0.3% to 8,816.9 points

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rebound

The Australian share market is expected to rise on Wednesday following a mixed session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 32 points or 0.35% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 1% and the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, but the Nasdaq was down a fraction.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a poor session after oil prices fell overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 2.5% to US$101.09 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.5% to US$108.97 a barrel. Traders were selling oil amid optimism over diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

Sigma update

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) shares will be on watch on Wednesday when the Chemist Warehouse owner releases a trading update at its annual general meeting. Bell Potter is expecting the company to reveal that it started the financial year strongly. It said: “We expect 1Q27 network LFL network sales growth in the range of 12-13%.”

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares including Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued session after the gold price fell overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 0.45% to US$4,141.3 an ounce. Traders were selling gold in response to rate hike fears.

Buy Pro Medicus shares

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares could be a top pick for Aussie investors according to Morgans. It has upgraded the health imaging technology company’s shares to a buy rating with a $230.00 price target. It said: “PME has announced a further seven-year, A$24m full stack cloud contract with Billings Clinic Logan Health, its third new community health system win in FY27 to date (A$72m TCV, A$10.3m new ARR). The FY27 wins are modest individually but consistent in size, term and scope, pointing to a repeatable mid-market playbook that broadens the pipeline beyond large Integrated Delivery Networks. Near-term focus shifts to RSNA in late November as the likely window for a larger deal, and to execution on a busy 1Q’CY27 go-live schedule underpinning FY28. We upgrade to a BUY (from Accumulate), with no change to our A$230 target price.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX retailer is a better buy, Coles or Woolworths?
• Buy, hold, sell: Sigma Healthcare, Collins Foods, IKO ETF shares
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Guess which ASX 200 share was just hit with a broker downgrade
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Share prices are always changing, so investors have an opportunity to find undervalued ASX shares. Expert analysts spend all day trying to find the best stock ideas.

When one analyst thinks a business is a buy, that’s interesting. When multiple experts think a stock is a buy, that could be a sign of a clear opportunity.

Of course, buy ratings don’t guarantee returns, but I think it’s very interesting to consider the ideas. Let’s look at two highly rated businesses.

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

Collins Foods is a large KFC franchisee business with operations across both Australia and Europe.

According to Commsec, there are currently seven analysts that rate the business as a buy.

FY26 was a solid performance by the company, with revenue growth of 8.6% to $1.6 billion and underlying net profit growth of 13% to $61.4 million.

The most recent update from the company was very promising and was revealed at the annual general meeting (AGM) at the start of September 2026.

In Australia, for the last four weeks (at the time of the AGM), total sales were up 5% with same-store sales (SSS) growth of 3.1%. The company said it has initiatives to further strengthen its core further, the Kwench (a drink) national rollout was happening for its launch before summer, the late-night trading rollout was close to completion and the breakfast trial started in September.

In Germany, the last four weeks saw total sales growth of 58.8%, amid a 0.1% SSS decline (compared to a 7.2% SSS decline for the first eight weeks of FY27). It benefited from the JJ acquisition from week five. The Bavarian acquisition is delivering higher average store sales than the existing portfolio. The ASX share said it’s working to lift performance now and in the longer term. It’ll remain disciplined with investments in new restaurants, and a return to SSS growth will help accelerate new-store growth.

In the Netherlands, total sales were up 4.9% over the last four weeks, with SSS up 3.1%, compared to a 7.8% SSS decline in the first eight weeks of FY27.

Overall, the company has clearly driven an improvement in performance, and the fact that it’s growing in both Australia and Europe is exciting for its growth runway to deliver returns. I think its global KFC outlet network can keep growing.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

The other ASX share I’ll mention is Netwealth, a financial technology services company that provides superannuation (including accumulation and retirement income products), investor-directed portfolio services, managed accounts, managed funds, SMSF administration and non-custodial administration and reporting services.

According to Commsec, there are currently 13 buy ratings on the business.

The Netwealth share price has fallen more than 35% in the past six months, so it’s significantly cheaper.

It recently reported its FY27 first-quarter update, which showed ongoing growth, though perhaps not as much as the market hoped.

Total funds under administration (FUA) increased by $3.4 billion to $139.2 billion, up 2.5% for the quarter and up 15.2% year-over-year.

It revealed that custodial inflows were $7.8 billion, while FUA net flows were $3.6 billion (excluding pension payments of $0.4 billion and two institutional client outflows totalling $0.6 billion) – broadly consistent with the prior quarter.

The ASX share said that funds under management (FUM) net inflows reached $2.4 billion, including managed account net flows of $2.2 billion. Total FUM rose 24% year-over-year to $36.6 billion.

Netwealth said there were 3,822 net new accounts and 21 financial intermediary relationships were added during the quarter.

Finally, the company noted the launch of individual HINs, Netwealth Private and the acquisition of Paradino.

The post 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Sigma Healthcare, Collins Foods, IKO ETF shares
• I looked at the bear case for these 3 ASX shares, and came to a different conclusion. Here’s why
• 3 ASX shares UBS has tipped to increase 44% to 76%
• WiseTech Global vs Netwealth: Which ASX tech stock could double from here?
• This high-quality ASX 200 share could rise 60%

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) are both trading near their 12-month highs, but one is a clear standout for shareholder return performance over the past year.

Woolworths shares are up 55.8% on a 12-month basis, while Coles shares have risen just 4.5%.

So, is Coles poised to catch up over the next 12 months?

Broker has run the numbers on the ASX retailers

The Jarden analyst team examined the retailers and came to a conclusion as to which one of the major supermarket operators represents the best value from a shareholder perspective.

The broker has just finalised its 15^th fast-moving consumer goods survey, which points to 2% sector growth over the next six months, with Woolworths tipped to be the top performer again.

Jarden said themes over the past 12 months have remained consistent, with suppliers ceding terms to retailers, and shoppers increasingly seeking out promotions.

The broker said:

The results support stronger margins for COL and WOW, which could suggest some upside to FY27/28 forecasts for 10 basis points of expansion. We leave forecasts unchanged, with the view that WOW’s investment in below the line, momentum from Ooshies and customer offer reset opportunity leave it well placed to maintain momentum. Overall we believe retailers are extracting better terms and looking to put this into price. The question is whether this will flow through into margins? We would argue consensus assumes WOW can maintain stronger top-line, with neither COL or WOW banking margin.

Woolworths Chief Executive Officer Amanda Barwell said recently while announcing the company’s full year results that they had had a “pleasing” start to the year supported by the strong performance of the Disney Ooshies collectibles program.

She added:

Customers are expected to remain value-focused in the year ahead and we are committed to limiting the impact of rising costs through low and dependable prices. Wage growth is also expected to remain elevated by historical standards reflecting the current year’s annual wage increase of 4.75% in Australia and progressive changes to pay for our 18 and 19-year-old retail team members. These cost pressures challenge us to be even more efficient, leveraging technology to be more productive in order to reinvest back into the business for our customers.

Woolworths edges out its rival

Jarden has an overweight rating on Woolworths shares. Its price target is $42, which sits slightly above the current price of $41.74.

It has a neutral rating Coles shares. Its price target is $22.80, which sits below the current share price of $24.22.

Among other retailers, Jarden has overweight ratings on Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS), and a buy rating on Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG).

The post Which ASX retailer is a better buy, Coles or Woolworths? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Sigma Healthcare, Collins Foods, IKO ETF shares
• Woolworths shares jump 9% to all-time high: Buy, sell, or hold?
• How much must I invest in Wesfarmers shares to earn $2,000 of passive income?
• 3 ASX shares I’d buy and hold for the next 10 years
• Guess which ASX 200 share was just hit with a broker downgrade

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 2.4% over 12 months.

The US-Iran conflict, high oil prices, rising inflation and interest rates, and multi-decade high bond yields are all weighing on the market.

Amid the current weakness, experts provide their insights on three ASX stocks (courtesy The Bull). 

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

The Sigma Healthcare share price is down 5% over 12 months.

Toby Grimm from Baker Young has a buy rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share.

Grimm explained:

Sigma Healthcare is a wholesale distributer of pharmaceutical goods and medicines.

Sigma merged with pharmaceutical retail giant Chemist Warehouse in 2025.

The company’s share price has retreated to appealing entry levels at October 15.

Its competitive position remains unrivalled, in our view. Structural health trends should continue to support organic growth.

Although some competition is likely, the GLP-1 weight loss drug rollout should boost treatment sales.

The Chemist Warehouse branded store network is forecast to generate double digit, like-for-like sales growth in full year 2027.

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

The Collins Food share price is down 17% over 12 months.

Grimm has a hold rating on this ASX 200 consumer discretionary share. 

He said: 

The company operates KFC restaurants in Australia, Germany and the Netherlands.

The shares have fallen from $11.68 on November 28, 2025 to trade at $8.64 on October 15, 2026.

Consumer sentiment is weakening due to cost-of-living pressures, higher interest rates and housing market weakness.

However, underlying spending patterns are far more resilient than sentiment indicators suggest.

Australian sales continue to grow in the high single digits.

CKF offers a solid dividend yield and is a reasonably priced defensive exposure that we’re happy to hold.

iShares MSCI South Korea AUD ETF (ASX: IKO)

The IKO share price is up 55% over 12 months. 

IKO ETF was the best performer out of the more than 400 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market in FY26.

The IKO ETF delivered a stunning one-year total return of 171%, including a dividend yield of 4.6%.

That was the result of South Korea’s stock market near-tripling in value over the 12 months.

Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory has a sell recommendation on IKO ETF shares.

Wielandt said: 

This exchange traded fund provides exposure to major South Korean companies, including technology and industrial businesses.

IKO is exposed to cyclical global demand, particularly in semiconductors and memory chips.

Given IKO’s concentrated and heavy exposure to technology, we would be inclined to cash in some gains in this volatile environment.

The shares have risen from $137.65 on October 16, 2025 to trade at $220.55 on October 15, 2026.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Sigma Healthcare, Collins Foods, IKO ETF shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX retailer is a better buy, Coles or Woolworths?
• Guess which ASX 200 share was just hit with a broker downgrade
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Experts name 3 top ASX shares to buy this week
• How much could the Sigma Healthcare share price rise in the next year?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Westpac vs AMP shares: Which ASX financial stock better suits retirees?

Choosing between Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) can feel a bit like picking your favourite out of Australia’s classic financial names. Both companies offer investors a slice of the nation’s financial industry, but their strengths (and their differences) could have a real impact on retirees looking for income and stability. Here’s how I see the two stack up as investments for those living off their portfolios.

The case for Westpac

Founded in 1817, Westpac is a household name and one of Australia’s ‘big four’ banks. With a long-running history and a broad offering—from everyday banking to wealth management and institutional services—Westpac has its tentacles in almost every corner of Australian finance. Its family of brands includes Westpac itself, St.George, Bank of Melbourne, BankSA, and BT. It operates across consumer, business, and institutional spaces, both here and in New Zealand.

For me, a real standout with Westpac is its commitment to fully franked dividends—a big plus for retirees seeking tax-effective income. According to the latest data, it boasts:

• Market cap of $120.22 billion (distinctly one of the ASX’s largest)
• P/E ratio of 17.60
• Dividend yield of 4.31%, with 100% franking—meaning potential tax credits come tax time
• Earnings per share of $2.029

Westpac’s dividend history shows a long track record of regular, reliable payments, including some special dividends sprinkled in, all with full franking. This level of consistency is pretty attractive for those in the drawdown phase of retirement.

The case for AMP

AMP has been a pillar of Australia’s financial scene since 1849, originally starting as the Australian Mutual Provident Society. These days, AMP provides superannuation, life insurance, investment management, and banking services to individuals and businesses alike. The company has seen some major strategic changes recently, including forming a joint venture for its advice business and streamlining operations with the sale of Collimate Capital.

The fundamentals for AMP catch the eye for different reasons:

• Market cap sits at $5.79 billion, making it notably smaller than Westpac
• P/E ratio of 32.43—higher than Westpac’s, signaling the market may be pricing in more growth or a recovery
• Dividend yield of 2.08%, with only 20% franking
• Earnings per share is $0.074
• Year to date (YTD) return at a striking 34.6%

While AMP’s dividends are partially franked and smaller, the sizeable YTD share price jump suggests positive momentum—something that may appeal to those not just focused on income but also growth potential, even as a retiree.

Valuation comparison

Here’s how some key metrics line up side by side:

	Westpac	AMP
Market Cap	$120.22 billion	$5.79 billion
P/E Ratio	17.60	32.43
Dividend Yield	4.31% (100% franked)	2.08% (20% franked)
Dividend per Share	$1.54	$0.05
Earnings per Share (EPS)	$2.029	$0.074
YTD Return	-5.49%	34.62%

Note: AMP’s P/E ratio and EPS suggest a relatively ‘expensive’ valuation compared to Westpac, and its lower franking level could mean less effective after-tax income for retirees. The higher P/E for AMP suggests the market might expect greater earnings growth—although that comes with more risk.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing year-to-date performance in 2026:

• Westpac: -5.5%
• AMP: 34.6%

Clearly, AMP shares have charged ahead in 2026, while Westpac has lost a little ground.

Which is the better buy?

If I’m thinking like a retiree, seeking stability and consistent tax-effective income, Westpac squarely ticks the boxes for me. That 4.3% fully franked dividend is hard to beat, especially when paired with the bank’s scale and regular history of rewarding shareholders. AMP’s run-up this year is impressive, but with a much higher P/E, a smaller, only partially franked dividend, and less stability, I’d see it as a riskier option for those living off their investments.

For my money, Westpac is the more suitable ASX financial share for retirees aiming for worry-free dividend income. While AMP has momentum, I’m a fan of solid, sleep-well income—and Westpac delivers that in spades.

The post Westpac vs AMP: Which ASX financial stock is best for retirees? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What do brokers tip for AMP shares over the next 12 months?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ANZ vs Westpac shares: Which big four bank is the better buy for $5,000?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to generate a $108,000 annual passive income?
• How much passive income can I earn off a $700,000 superannuation balance?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) endured a rough session this Tuesday, dragging the value of many ASX shares lower. After yesterday’s excited start to the trading week, investors were more cautious today, with the markets opening in red territory and staying there all day. By the time trading wrapped up, the ASX 200 had lost 0.33% of its value. That leaves the index at 8,816.9 points.

This disappointing Tuesday session for the local markets followed a mixed start to the American trading week in the early hours of this morning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) wasn’t in a great mood after the weekend, losing 0.07% of its value.

However, things were far better for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC), which rose a healthy 1.11%.

But let us return to ASX shares now and take stock of how the different ASX sectors performed this Tuesday.

Winners and losers

The hardest-hit corner of the market today was gold stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) was no safe haven, plunging 1.52%.

Energy shares were also left out in the cold, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) sinking 1.31%.

Mining shares weren’t much better. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) ended up tanking 1.16%.

Financial stocks found themselves in the firing line too, as you can tell from the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ)’s 0.48% dive.

Industrial shares were next. The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ) dipped 0.17% this session.

Our last losers today were communications stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) retreating 0.12%.

Turning to our winners now, it was consumer staples shares that were the stars. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) was on fire today, shooting 1.14% higher.

Healthcare stocks had a great time of it too, evidenced by the S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ)’s 0.87% surge.

We can say something similar for consumer discretionary shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) soared 0.76% this Tuesday.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) were in a similar boat, with the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) advancing 0.7%.

Utilities stocks weren’t too shabby either. The S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) bounced up 0.49%.

Finally, tech stocks got over the line, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ)’s 0.36% uptick.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Property stock Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA) was our top share this Tuesday. Ingenia stock rocketed 9.67% higher today to close at $4.65 a share.

This came after the company provided an update on its ongoing acquisition process.

Here’s how the other high-flyers landed their planes this session:

ASX-listed company	Share price	Price change
Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)	$4.65	9.67%
Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB)	$4.18	6.91%
Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH)	$139.40	5.17%
Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA)	$1.46	4.68%
Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)	$67.08	3.89%
Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)	$22.01	3.82%
Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)	$3.15	3.28%
Arena REIT (ASX: ARF)	$2.57	3.21%
TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG)	$3.83	2.41%
Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)	$15.76	2.34%

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Ingenia Communities: Update on Warburg Pincus negotiations and Peet deal
• HUB24 Q1 earnings: $4bn net inflows
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 ASX shares I think could have a brilliant 2027

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, Generation Development Group, Hub24, and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The iron ore price is trading around a two-year low of US$90.95 per tonne on Tuesday, according to Trading Economics.

Iron ore has fallen 6.7% over the past month and 15.1% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

The iron ore price impacts the earnings and, thus, valuations of the major ASX 200 iron ore shares, but not as much as it used to.

That’s because three of the four majors have significantly diversified themselves, primarily into copper and/or lithium in recent years.

What’s happening with ASX 200 mining shares today?

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is $59.37, down 2.3% over the month and up 30% YTD.

The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price is $153.79, down 7.4% over the month and up 4% YTD.

Iron ore pure-play Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) is $15.27 per share, down 8.6% over the month and down 31% YTD.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is $44.64, down 16.3% over the month and down 19% YTD.

Experts say today’s new mining boom is substantially different to the 2000s because it’s led by critical minerals, not iron ore.

The iron ore price rose just 7% in FY26 while other metals and minerals relevant to the energy transition skyrocketed.

The outlook for the iron ore price over the next five years is rather bleak.

Iron ore price to tumble 20% over 5 years

The Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources has just published its 5-year outlook for commodities.

The department expects the iron ore price to average US$83 per tonne in FY27, down from US$92 per tonne in FY26.

Looking ahead, it expects the iron ore price to drop to an average US$72 per tonne in FY31.

That’s 21% lower than today.

The department says the primary force driving down the iron ore price will be changed supply and demand dynamics.

According to the department’s report:

Iron ore prices are forecast to fall as global supply rises and demand weakens.

This is expected to reduce Australia’s export earnings from $107 billion in 2026–27 to $96 billion in 2027– 28 and $79 billion by 2030–31 …

In 1H FY26, steel production weakened in China, which imports 75% of the world’s iron ore, as well as Russia, and the Middle East.

Steel production directly affects the iron ore price because iron ore is the main raw material used to make steel.

Meanwhile, the global supply of iron ore increased, particularly from Australia, Brazil, Guinea’s Simandou project, and South America.

Simandou is the world’s largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore deposit.

It is majority-owned by Chinese investors, but Rio Tinto also has a stake.

The department said:

Simandou mines in Guinea — Africa’s largest high-grade iron ore deposit — are beginning to add a more visible source of supply-side pressure to the global seaborne iron ore market.

Shipments from Simandou began to ramp up from the September quarter, with volumes expected to rise noticeably as mine, rail and port operations scale toward full capacity.

While the ramp-up is likely to be uneven, the arrival of high-grade Simandou ore adds to already ample global supply and, over time, could increase competitive pressure on higher-cost and lower-grade producers.

Between FY27 and FY31, the department forecasts gradually rising global supply and lower Chinese demand due to weaker steel output.

Australian iron ore export volumes are expected to peak over the next two years as new supply comes online.

Exports will then ease as China’s demand weakens and new supply from Africa and Brazil increases competition…

The department expects Australian iron ore export earnings to fall from $123 billion in FY26 to $79 billion in FY31.

That’s a 35% drop in five years.

This will be driven by a lower iron ore price, lower volumes, falling ore grades, and a stronger AUD/USD exchange rate.

Check out the official price forecasts for 9 other commodities, including copper and lithium, here.

The post Iron ore price set to tumble to US$72 per tonne. Here's why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares are down around 1% to $2.44 a piece at the time of writing.

The shares have now slid around 8% from a multi-year high of $2.66 late last month, but they’re still up 33% for the year-to-date and 36% higher than 12 months ago.

AMP shares rallied higher pretty consistently between March and September thanks to a rebound in investor sentiment. The company has managed to execute an operational turnaround this year, which means it has been able to improve its earnings and return some capital to shareholders.

The company has posted strong financial results, too. Over the course of the year, its assets under management (AUM) have climbed, its wealth business has improved, it has boosted its interim dividend, and it has also completed a series of share buybacks.

Last week, AMP provided investors with its third-quarter FY26 cash flow and business update. It confirmed that platforms net cash flows has increased 20% compared to the same quarter last year, superannuation and investment net cash outflows has improved year-on-year, and total AUM has now reached $168 billion across its Australian and New Zealand wealth business. 

The update follows the company’s first half FY26 results announcement in August. At the time, AMP announced a 33% increase in underlying NPAT for the first half of FY26, and an 8.2% year-on-year increase in AUM to $167.6 billion. Management credited its AUM growth to momentum in AMP’s wealth and retirement businesses.

Why are AMP shares sliding lower?

There isn’t any price sensitive news out of the company recently which would explain the latest selloff. 

It’s most likely a result of profit-taking investors selling up their shares after the late-September spike. 

AMP also traded ex-dividend in late-August. It’s common for a share price to decline following a dividend payment because new investors aren’t eligible for the payout.

Some broad economic headwinds, including September’s interest rate hike and higher inflation figures has also weighed down the ASX financial sector as a whole over the past month.

Can the shares surpass the multi-year high we saw last month?

It’s possible.

TradingView data shows that the majority (six out of nine) of analysts have a buy/strong buy rating on AMP shares.

The average $2.65 target price implies an upside of around 9%, at the time of writing. That’s just one cent shy from the $2.66 high that AMP shares reached in late-September.

But some are even more bullish that the financial services company’s shares could storm even higher.

The maximum $2.92 target price implies a 20% increase over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. The ASX stock last traded at around the $3 level back in October-2018.

The post What do brokers tip for AMP shares over the next 12 months? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• CBA vs AMP: Which is better for a 40-year-old investor seeking passive income?
• 6 ASX shares downgraded by experts this week
• ANZ vs AMP: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy this month?
• Macquarie Group vs AMP: Which ASX financial stock is best?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF) shares are steady at $1.92 apiece on Tuesday.

Rural Funds is an ASX agricultural real estate investment trust (REIT) that leases land and infrastructure to farmers.

The REIT’s portfolio is focused on almond orchards, vineyards, cattle, cotton, and macadamias. Its tenants include Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE), Australian Agricultural Company Ltd (ASX: AAC), and Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV).

RFF is externally managed by Rural Funds Management (RFM), which has been managing agricultural investments since 1997.

RFM’s strategy for Rural Funds is to generate capital growth and income from developing and leasing agricultural assets.

Let’s talk dividends

Over the past 12 months, Rural Funds has paid investors 11.7 cents per share combined over four quarterly payments.

That gives this ASX REIT an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 6.1%.

That looks pretty good compared to the average yield from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in FY26, which was 4.2% (with franking).

Top broker Bell Potter expects Rural Funds shares to continue paying an 11.7-cent dividend in FY27, FY28, and FY29.

That sort of stability is appealing for investors who value reliable passive income.

The broker also expects Rural Funds shares to grow given its 12-month price target of $2.55.

That implies 32.5% potential upside ahead.

Put the 6.1% dividend yield on top, and we’re talking expected total returns of 38.6% over 12 months.

That looks even better next to the ASX 200’s total return for FY26, which was 7%.

How much income will you get on a $15,000 investment?

Well, $15,000 will buy 7,812 Rural Funds shares today.

If we multiply 7,812 shares by 11.7 cents, we get income of $914.

Experts say income stocks are likely to become more appealing than growth stocks due to changes to capital gains tax (CGT).

From 1 July next year, the current 50% CGT discount for assets held longer than 12 months will be replaced with cost base indexation.

Existing ASX shares investments are grandfathered, which means the 50% discount will still apply to gains made before 1 July.

After that, capital gains on existing and new ASX shares investments will be subject to cost base indexation.

A minimum 30% CGT tax rate will apply.

This leads to an important question.

Would you rather be invested in companies paying out most of their profits as dividends, on which you will pay your marginal rate of tax?

Or would you prefer companies that reinvest their profits in order to grow their share prices, then pay 30% CGT when you sell?

The answer to this question depends on what stage of life you’re in, and what your priorities are.

In FY27, the marginal tax rate on income up to $18,200 is zero.

The tax rate on income between $18,201 and $45,000 is 15%.

These tax brackets are especially relevant to retirees who are no longer receiving wages but are getting some investment income.

Investors switch to ASX income stocks ahead of CGT changes

Portfolio strategist Damien Boey from Wilson Asset Management says many clients are switching to dividend shares ahead of 1 July.

Boey said:

So a lot of people … have decided that look, it’s not worth their while anymore to keep holding out for big capital gains.

They’d rather actually go for much more income-based investment … there’s definitely a shift there for investors to prefer income over capital growth.

Boey says investors who still want to target growth are looking overseas to markets like the US.

Presumably, the logic is to take advantage of Australia’s superior dividend yields and franking credits, and seek outsized growth elsewhere.

In FY26, US shares grew at a faster rate than ASX 200 shares by a factor of 7x.

Perhaps a 30% CGT tax rate feels more palatable to investors when they’re achieving extraordinary gains.

Boey reckons the ASX is unlikely to deliver outsized capital growth any time soon given weak long-term productivity.

He said:

…when you’re really starving the place of actual, real productivity growth, then what are you actually earning?

Where is the capital growth going to come from?

Rural Funds share price snapshot

Rural Funds shares are down 1% over 12 months and down 32% over five years.

The post If I invest $15,000 in Rural Funds shares, how much passive income will I get? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 of the best ASX dividend shares for income investors
• 6 ASX shares to buy in today’s weak market: experts
• Buy, hold, sell: Rural Funds Group, Imdex, Fortescue shares
• Is this cheap ASX dividend share one of the best income buys?
• How much do I need to retire on $85,000 a year at 50?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 0.6% to 8,791.6 points on Tuesday.

Among the 11 market sectors, consumer staples is in the lead today, up 1.2%.

The materials and miners sector is the laggard, down 1.8%. 

Let’s check out some new ratings on three ASX 200 shares.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

The CSL share price is $197.46, up 1.8% today and down 9% over 12 months. 

Ord Minnett has an accumulate rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share. 

In a note published yesterday, the broker said: 

We expect CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin (Ig) franchise can deliver stronger growth. We assume 7% per annum Ig revenue growth persisting from FY27 until FY29. This would see Ig revenues recover to be broadly in-line with the market.

We also assume a 50 basis point improvement in CSL Behring’s gross margin in FY27 from increased plasma yields, a stabilisation in inventory write-downs, and declining cost per litre as donor fees stabilise.

CSL’s earnings should also be supported by continued cost discipline and share buybacks. We note that CSL has guided to a $50 million headwind to FY27 NPAT from currency.

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY)

Cleanaway Waste Management shares are $2.99, up 0.6% on Tuesday and up 8% over 12 months.

Morgans has downgraded Cleanaway Waste Management shares from buy to hold.

In a note released yesterday, Morgans said:

CWY today announced that it had executed a takeover Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) with EQT.

Completion is targeted by the end of March 2027.

Today’s strong rise in CWY’s share price has compressed its total potential return to single digits (albeit double-digit on an annualised basis). Hence, we downgrade from BUY to HOLD.

The stock may remain attractive for income-oriented special situations investors given the potential for a special dividend prior to completion.

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)

The New Hope Corporation share price is $6.11, down 1.2% today and up 54% over 12 months. 

Bell Potter has a sell rating on this ASX 200 coal share. 

The broker has a 12-month price target of $5.30 on New Hope shares.

In a new note yesterday, analyst James Williamson said:

NHC has entered a binding Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire the ~74% of Malabar Resources it does not already own via a scheme of arrangement, with Malabar shareholders to receive 0.50 new NHC shares per share held.

We maintain a Sell recommendation. Our $5.30/sh TP already incorporates an 11% premium to our sum-of-the-parts valuation, reflecting NHC’s leverage to global energy security themes amplified by recent geopolitical tensions.

We expect energy markets will normalise over the near-term.

While the Malabar acquisition will materially strengthen NHC’s long-term production outlook, Maxwell’s longwall ramp-up to 5Mtpa saleable production brings elevated operational complexity over the medium-term.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Cleanaway Waste Management, New Hope Corporation, CSL shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Morgan Stanley just upgraded their CSL share price target
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Up 20%: Has the EQT deal saved Cleanaway shares?
• Cleanaway Waste Management enters $9.3bn Scheme with EQT Infrastructure

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.