Category: Stock Market

Warren Buffett has long favoured businesses that can stay strong for a very long time.

One way to think about this is through the idea of a moat.

A moat is the defence around a business. It is what makes it hard for competitors to come in, steal customers, crush margins, or copy the model.

That moat can come from a powerful brand, scale, patents, network effects, customer loyalty, cost advantages, or products that are painful to replace once they are embedded.

Its value is that it can give a company more time, more pricing power, and more room to keep earning attractive returns.

Fortunately, ASX investors do not have to identify every moat stock themselves. These two ASX exchange traded funds (ETFs) are built around that idea.

VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)

One way to put the moat idea to work is through the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF.

This fund focuses on US companies that have durable competitive strengths, while also taking valuation into account.

That second part is important. A great business can still be a poor investment if the price is too high.

The portfolio can look quite different from a standard US index fund. Holdings currently include Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT), NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

That mix shows the fund is not trying to follow one theme. Fortinet gives exposure to cybersecurity, NXP sits inside the semiconductor supply chain, and NVIDIA remains one of the most important companies in advanced computing and artificial intelligence.

The common thread is not the industry. It is the idea that each business has characteristics that may help it defend its economics over time.

For investors who want a more selective way to own US shares, this ETF could be a top option.

VanEck Morningstar International Wide Moat ETF (ASX: GOAT)

Another ASX ETF that uses the same philosophy is the VanEck Morningstar International Wide Moat ETF.

This fund gives investors exposure to moat-style companies outside Australia, creating a wider opportunity set than the local market can offer.

Its holdings currently include Murata Manufacturing (FRA: MUR1), Etsy Inc (NYSE: ETSY), and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO).

These companies are very different from one another. Murata is tied to electronic components, Etsy operates an online marketplace, and Novo Nordisk is a global healthcare leader.

But that is part of the appeal of this type of fund. It is not trying to tell investors that one sector will dominate the next decade. It is trying to find businesses with strong positions that may be able to keep earning good returns across different industries and markets.

That can make the fund useful for investors who like the Warren Buffett idea of owning quality businesses, but want more geographic variety than a US-only approach.

The post Invest like Warren Buffett with these top ASX ETFs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• SpaceX shares are rocketing – how can Aussie investors get exposure?
• Centuria Capital Group unveils AI-powered growth at Investor Day

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Etsy, Fortinet, NXP Semiconductors, Novo Nordisk, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia, VanEck Morningstar International Wide Moat ETF, and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Many investors’ portfolios will have a strong allocation to the large banks and miners that dominate the ASX 200. 

The market cap of several companies has a big impact on Australia’s benchmark index. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 2% in 2026. 

This is far below the historical average. 

However some of the biggest ASX companies have outperformed this in 2026. 

Let’s see which blue-chips have outperformed the market this year. 

Materials leading the way 

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials (ASX: XMJ) index has far outperformed the ASX 200. 

It has risen by over 20% year to date. 

This has been led by the two largest materials companies: 

• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have risen 42% year to date
• Rio Tinto Group Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are up 24%. 

This outperformance has been driven by a broad rally across iron ore, copper, and gold, supported by a weaker US dollar, falling bond yields, and improved sentiment following the Iran peace deal.

Bank shares disappoint 

The big four bank shares have all underperformed this year. 

The best performer has been Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (ASX: CBA) which is essentially flat year to date. 

Meanwhile, the remaining three have all fallen between 3% and 12%. 

Looking outside the big four, a blue-chip bank stock that has performed well has been Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which is up 24% for the year to date. 

Another blue-chip stock that has performed well (outside of banking) has been Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES). 

Its defensive profile has held up well amidst broader market headwinds. 

How to avoid over concentration 

While these companies dominate the ASX 200, there is also a risk that investors become overconcentrated on just a few companies. 

Many investors could end up overly exposed to banks or miners without realising, by owning individual stocks as well as ASX ETFs that are heavily weighted towards the same shares. 

In case you are unaware, the big four banks and BHP account for over 32% of the entire ASX 200. 

One way to avoid this is with an equal weighted ASX ETF such as the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (ASX: MVW).

It provides a more balanced and diversified approach to the Aussie market. 

It aims for true diversification by equally weighting across companies and reducing sector concentration.

MVW has less exposure to the mega-caps that dominate the S&P/ASX 200 Index compared to many Australian equity portfolios. MVW is underweight mega cap companies and overweight those large companies outside the mega-caps. Relative to the S&P/ASX 200, MVW has a higher weighting to stocks outside the top 15.

The post Which Aussie blue-chip stock is the best performer so far in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Wesfarmers shares have surged 20% in a month. Buy now?
• Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts
• 4 ASX 200 shares downgraded by brokers this week
• Macquarie shares hit another record high. Has the rally gone too far?
• Why has the ASX 200 given up its early rebound today?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Macquarie Group, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares have been on a remarkable run.

At the time of writing, the retail giant’s shares are up around 20% over the past month to $86.27. That comfortably outpaces the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has gained approximately 5% over the same period.

The outperformance extends beyond the past month. Wesfarmers shares have risen roughly 6% in 2026, compared to a gain of around 2.5% for the broader market.

But after such a strong rally, investors may be wondering whether the shares are still worth buying.

Why investors love Wesfarmers

Wesfarmers is one of Australia’s highest-quality businesses.

The company owns a portfolio of leading brands, including Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, Priceline, and Blackwoods. These businesses generate significant cash flow and have built strong competitive positions in their respective markets.

Bunnings remains the crown jewel of the portfolio, benefiting from its dominant position in the home improvement sector. Kmart has also delivered impressive growth in recent years by offering value-focused products that resonate with consumers during periods of economic uncertainty.

Another strength is Wesfarmers’ balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Management has a strong track record of investing in growth opportunities while returning capital to investors in Wesfarmers shares through dividends.

These qualities help explain why the company has consistently rewarded long-term investors.

What are the risks?

The challenge is that great businesses do not always make great investments at every price.

Following the recent rally, some analysts believe Wesfarmers shares are trading above fair value. The company held a strategy day last week, but investors did not receive a meaningful trading update or any major new catalyst that could drive earnings expectations higher in the near term.

There are also broader risks to consider. Retail spending remains sensitive to economic conditions, interest rates, and consumer confidence. While Bunnings and Kmart have proven resilient, a slowdown in spending could still affect growth.

Valuation is another concern. When a stock trades at a premium multiple, even a small earnings disappointment can lead to a sharp share price correction.

Buy, hold, or sell?

According to TradingView data, analysts appear divided on the outlook.

Most analysts currently rate Wesfarmers shares as a hold, suggesting they see limited upside from current levels. More notably, four of the 14 analysts covering the stock now have a strong sell recommendation.

While opinions differ, analysts broadly agree that the shares may have run ahead of fundamentals. In fact, the lowest price target on the stock is $65.10.

Based on the current share price of $86.27, that target implies downside of approximately 24% over the next 12 months.

As a result, while Wesfarmers remains a high-quality ASX share with excellent businesses and a strong long-term track record, investors may want to consider whether its recent rally has already priced in much of the good news.

The post Wesfarmers shares have surged 20% in a month. Buy now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which Aussie blue-chip stock is the best performer so far in 2026?
• 2 ASX growth shares experts think could double over 12 months
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a rough 12 months for Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) and REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) shares. 

These well known online classifieds companies provide customers with property and job listings. 

REA Group shares are down 38% in the last year, while Seek shares are down 44%. 

However AI takeover fears and competition threats have soured sentiment in recent times. 

Despite these headwinds, both have received some positive views from brokers after being heavily sold off. 

New analysis from Bell Potter sees plenty of upside for one of these stocks, while the other could be in very real danger of falling further. 

Here is the updated view from the broker. 

Why REA shares are a sell 

A new report from the team at Bell Potter has reiterated its sell rating on the ASX 200 stock. 

There are four key reasons the broker expects further share price declines in the next 12 months: 

• Elevated near-term RBA cash rate forecast expected to soften demand for lending
• Recent budget measures adversely impacting property investment as an asset class, particularly in the investor book, partially offset by owner-occupied
• Both factors combined expected to negatively impact average national dwelling values and listing volumes, more than offsetting Buy yield for REA
• REA’s history of EPS declines in a falling 12-month average dwelling price environment raises further concern. 

The broker also reduced its price target on REA shares to $133 (previously $137). 

From yesterday’s closing price, this indicates a downside of 8%. 

REA published a Property Outlook Report (available on rea-group.com.au) outlining an internal expectation for largely flat prices YoY in CY2026 across combined capital cities, before rebounding to 5.5% growth in CY2027. 

A flat print for CY2026 implies a weak 2HCY2026 with YoY combined capital cities growth currently 6.4% as at May.

Why Seek shares are a buy

In good news for investors, the broker is more optimistic about Seek shares. 

Bell Potter retained its buy recommendation on Seek shares along with a price target of $18.60. 

This target indicates 39% upside from current levels. 

The broker did note the number of job listings on Seek’s Australian platform is declining at a faster rate, and Seek is underperforming compared to competitors. 

However, people are still actively applying for jobs, suggesting underlying demand for work remains healthy.

Bell Potter expects Seek to bounce back when interest rates fall, as it has done in previous economic recoveries.

The post What is Bell Potter’s updated view on Seek and REA shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Brokers name 2 ASX dividend shares to buy
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 10 ASX 200 shares given buy ratings this week
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Bell Potter says this popular ASX 200 stock could deliver a 40% return

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortunately for income investors, the Australian share market is home to a large number of dividend-paying ASX shares.

But with so many to choose from, it can be hard to decide which ones to buy over others.

To narrow things down, let’s look at two that brokers are tipping as buys this week. They are as follows:

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

Morgans has named travel agent giant Flight Centre as an ASX dividend share to buy.

In response to its guidance downgrade, which didn’t come as a surprise, the broker retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $14.80. This suggests that upside of 22% is possible for investors.

Morgans is positive on the company’s outlook and believes its earnings and share price will be materially higher once trading conditions normalise. It said:

Given recent downgrades from other travel industry peers due to the conflict in the Middle East, FLT’s downgrade wasn’t a surprise. Given its balance sheet strength and depressed share price, a new up to A$200m share buyback was announced. We have made only minor changes to our forecasts given FLT’s guidance was broadly in line with our previous forecast. While a peace agreement and eased travel restrictions are positive, we think 1H27 will still be challenging.

We forecast a strong recovery in 2H27. If it wasn’t for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We are buyers of FLT because when operating conditions ultimately improve, both its earnings and share price will be materially higher.

With respect to dividends, Morgans is forecasting fully franked dividends of 40 cents per share in FY 2026 and 48 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $12.11, this would mean dividend yields of 3.3% and 4%, respectively.

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK)

Bell Potter thinks this job listings company could be an ASX dividend share to buy this week.

This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $18.60 price target on Seek’s shares. This implies potential upside of almost 40% for investors.

Bell Potter believes the company is well-placed to fend off any AI disruption thanks to its underlying proprietary data. It said:

We maintain our Buy; SEK is our preferred rate-sensitive classifieds exposure looking through to a dovish RBA tilt, given the diversification in CAR (Buy; TP: $39.80ps) and policy-impacted earnings outlook for REA (Sell; TP:$133ps), though we acknowledge likely near-term volatility in Aus and global economic data impacting the outlook for SEK.

SEK’s underlying proprietary data (~750m points per day) partially consists of traffic meta data which is unable to be scraped by third parties, is valuable for targeted job placements, and should support yield through soft volume environments.

As for income, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of 52 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 55 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $13.34, this would mean dividend yields of 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively.

The post Brokers name 2 ASX dividend shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What is Bell Potter’s updated view on Seek and REA shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Buy, hold, sell: Flight Centre, SGH, and Navigator Global shares
• How high could Flight Centre shares fly according to brokers?
• 10 ASX 200 shares given buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained around 2% so far in 2026, but not every share has joined the rally. ASX shares Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL) and Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) have both endured difficult years, with their shares down 13% and 23% respectively at the time of writing.

However, analysts appear to believe the market is overlooking their long-term potential. In fact, broker price targets suggest both ASX shares could double — or more — over the next 12 months.

Let’s see why.

Catalyst Metals: exciting WA gold producer

Catalyst Metals has emerged as one of the ASX’s more exciting gold producers.

The ASX gold share operates the Plutonic Gold Belt in Western Australia and has been steadily growing production while expanding its resource base. With gold prices trading near record highs, Catalyst is well positioned to benefit from strong margins and cash generation.

Analysts are particularly optimistic about the company’s ability to unlock further value through exploration success and operational improvements. As a relatively small producer, even modest production gains can have a significant impact on earnings.

The key risk for this ASX share is that gold miners remain exposed to operational challenges and fluctuations in commodity prices. While gold has been strong recently, a weaker gold price could reduce profitability and dampen investor enthusiasm.

Despite these risks, the analyst community is overwhelmingly bullish. All five experts covering Catalyst Metals currently rate it as a strong buy.

According to TradingView consensus estimates, the average price target sits at $13.55 per share, implying potential upside of approximately 113% from current levels. The most bullish target is $15.13, which suggests a possible gain of 138%.

Mesoblast: major commercial milestone

Mesoblast offers investors a very different opportunity.

The biotechnology company recently achieved a major milestone with the commercial launch of Ryoncil, giving it its first meaningful opportunity to generate significant product revenue.

Investors are increasingly focused on the possibility that growing Ryoncil sales could eventually support sustainable earnings and cash flow. That would be a major achievement for a biotech company, many of which remain dependent on external funding for years.

Beyond Ryoncil, Mesoblast has additional growth opportunities through its pipeline targeting areas such as heart failure and chronic lower back pain. Successful regulatory approvals could substantially expand its addressable market and future revenue potential.

The obvious downside is risk. Biotechnology stocks can be volatile, and clinical, regulatory, or commercial setbacks can have a significant impact on valuations.

Even so, analysts remain extremely positive on the ASX share. TradingView data shows that all six brokers covering Mesoblast currently have strong buy recommendations on the stock.

The average broker price target stands at $4.06 per share, representing upside of approximately 97% from current levels. The highest target is $4.91, which implies potential upside of around 138%.

Foolish takeaway

While neither ASX share is without risk, analysts clearly believe both Catalyst Metals and Mesoblast have the potential to deliver outsized returns if their growth plans play out as expected.

The post 2 ASX growth shares experts think could double over 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Wesfarmers shares have surged 20% in a month. Buy now?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why is this ASX biotech stock blasting higher today?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a poor session and tumbled into the red.  The benchmark index fell 0.6% to 8,911.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set for another poor session on Friday despite a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 44 points or 0.5% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.15%, the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.9%.

Oil prices soften

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a subdued finish to the week after oil prices softened further overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.2% to US$76.64 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.2% to US$79.38 a barrel. Traders have been selling down oil prices since the US and Iran signed a peace deal and oil started to flow through the Strait of Hormuz again.

Sell REA Group shares

Bell Potter has reaffirmed its sell rating on REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) shares with a trimmed price target of $133.00 (from $137.00). This implies potential downside of 8% from current levels. It said: “We retain our Sell recommendation. Consensus EPS forecasts have recently declined by c.-2% in recent weeks, however, we still view 13% consensus growth for FY27e as having downside risk. Our thesis rests on REA’s share price declining from a reduction in EPS forecasts in-line with market pricing.”

Gold price drops

ASX 200 gold shares such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a tough finish to the week after the gold price sank overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.3% to US$4,235.1 an ounce. Hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve boosted the US dollar and rate hike bets.

Buy Seek shares

Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares are undervalued according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $18.60 price target on the job listings company’s shares. This implies potential upside of almost 40% for investors from current levels. It commented: “We maintain our Buy; SEK is our preferred rate-sensitive classifieds exposure looking through to a dovish RBA tilt, given the diversification in CAR (Buy; TP: $39.80ps) and policy-impacted earnings outlook for REA (Sell; TP:$133ps), though we acknowledge likely near-term volatility in Aus and global economic data impacting the outlook for SEK.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why has the ASX 200 given up its early rebound today?
• Mirvac Group announces June 2026 distribution
• 10 ASX 200 shares given buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in REA Group and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stocks closed 0.6% lower at 8,911.1 points on Thursday.

In the calendar year to date (YTD), ASX 200 shares have lifted just 2.1%.

A major commodities sell-off in late January and the global oil shock created by the war in Iran have weighed on equities this year.

Experts say some ASX stocks have hefty falls ahead of them.

Let’s take a look at five.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The CBA share price closed at $162.23, down 0.9% on Thursday.

The ASX 200 bank stock is up 1% YTD.

Macquarie reiterated its sell rating on CBA shares this month.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $114 to $111.

This implies a potential 32% downside ahead.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

The Sandfire Resources share price closed at $21.20, down 1.4% today.

This ASX 200 copper stock is once again trading close to its record high of $21.75 set in January.

Citi predicts a significant fall from here, but has a hold rating on the ASX mining stock.

The broker has a price target of $12.20, suggesting a 40%-plus slide ahead.

The lithium stock has risen 18% YTD.

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO)

The IGO share price closed at $8.64, down 3.4% today.

This ASX 200 lithium stock is up 5% YTD.

Morgan Stanley has a sell rating on IGO shares with a $6.85 target.

This indicates a potential 21% downside ahead.

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI)

Centuria Capital stock closed at $2.18, down 0.5% today.

This ASX real estate investment trust (REIT) is up 7% YTD.

UBS has a hold rating on the ASX real estate stock with a $1.69 target.

This implies 23% potential downside ahead.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) 

The Wesfarmers share price closed at $85.78, up 0.3% today.

This ASX 200 consumer discretionary stock is up 5% YTD.

Wesfarmers recently held its 2026 Strategy Briefing Day.

Management told investors about Wesfarmers’ growth and productivity plans, and emphasised the strong balance sheet.

Managing Director Rob Scott said Wesfarmers’ main goal was to deliver satisfactory returns for shareholders.

Scott said Wesfarmers stock had delivered an average annual return of 15.8% over 10 years.

This compares to a 9.2% average annual return from the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

Citi kept its sell recommendation on Wesfarmers stock with a $69 target after the event.

This implies a potential 20% downside ahead.

The post Warning! 5 ASX stocks to fall 20% or more: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 4 ASX 200 shares downgraded by brokers this week
• Why has the ASX 200 given up its early rebound today?
• Forget CBA: 3 ASX shares with better growth prospects

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares are showing no signs of slowing down.

On Thursday, the cloud networking company closed 5% higher at $20.74, just shy of its all-time high of $21.16.

The recent rally has been extraordinary. Megaport shares are up around 70% over the past month, 83% year-to-date, and an astonishing 220% from their 3-year low reached in early April.

That raises the obvious question: after such a powerful run, do brokers still see more upside?

What’s driving the surge?

The latest rally in Megaport shares has been fuelled by a combination of strong operational momentum and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence infrastructure exposure.

A key catalyst has been a series of major AI-related contract wins, reportedly worth around US$275 million, which have reinforced confidence in the company’s global growth pipeline.

Investors have also responded positively to continued strength in recurring revenue metrics and improving visibility across its core platform business.

Asset-light AI model

Megaport’s investment case is increasingly tied to its role in AI infrastructure.

Unlike traditional data centre operators, Megaport shares offer investors exposure to AI-driven demand with shorter implementation lead times and significantly lower capital expenditure requirements. This asset-light model has made it an attractive way to participate in global AI infrastructure growth.

The company’s expanding ARR base is another key strength. At its first-half FY26 results, Megaport reported group annualised recurring revenue (ARR) of $338 million, representing a 49% increase year on year. That level of growth has helped underpin the re-rating in the share price.

In early May, the company also narrowed its FY26 revenue guidance to a range of A$307 million to A$315 million, while maintaining its EBITDA margin and capital expenditure forecasts, signalling stable cost discipline alongside rapid expansion.

If this momentum continues, the business could sustain high growth rates while improving operating leverage over time.

Risks and mixed broker views

Despite the strong performance, not all analysts believe the rally can continue unchecked.

Macquarie remains one of the most bullish voices on Megaport shares. The broker is impressed with Megaport’s recent contract wins and sees the company as a compelling way to gain AI exposure without the heavy capital intensity of traditional infrastructure players. It retains a buy rating and a $27.80 price target, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.

However, Morgans took a more cautious stance last week. The broker downgraded Megaport to accumulate from buy after the stock’s sharp re-rating. The broker suggested the share price is now closer to fair value following a near 90% surge over the past month. Morgans’ $21 price target sits only slightly above the current share price.

Buy, hold or overcooked?

Megaport’s explosive rally reflects strong execution and rising AI infrastructure demand. However, with analysts now split on valuation, the next phase of gains may depend on whether the company can continue delivering exceptional growth to justify its elevated share price.

The post Up 70% and still charging ahead: Are Megaport shares a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 10 ASX 200 shares given buy ratings this week
• 3 reasons to buy Megaport shares right now
• 4 ASX shares Macquarie says could return more than 40%
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Planning for your retirement can be stressful, especially when you’re trying to work out exactly how much superannuation you need before the time comes.

Working out what superannuation balance you need depends almost entirely on your living situation, your expected retirement age, and what type of retirement lifestyle you’re aiming for.

Do you own your own house? What type of travel do you expect to do after you finish working? Do you have any debts?

By the age of 67, most Aussies will have already retired, or be very close to it. 

Let’s break down what retiring at 67 might look like.

What does a comfortable retirement look like?

In Australia, your retirement is generally split into two broad categories: modest and comfortable.

A modest retirement, according to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), is defined as being able to cover expenses slightly above what the full Centrelink Age Pension would provide. 

But it goes without saying that every Australian strives to live a comfortable retirement far above the bare minimum.

ASFA defines a comfortable retirement as one that allows retirees to maintain a good standard of living. 

It assumes you’ll have top-level private health insurance, own a good brand of car, do regular leisure activities, have funds set aside for home repairs and renovations, perhaps even go for the occasional meal out, and an annual domestic trip.

How much will a comfortable retirement cost me?

According to ASFA, a comfortable retirement is expected to cost around $54,840 per year for single Aussies. It is expected to cost roughly $77,375 per year for a couple. 

These figures also assume that you’ll be entitled to receive a part Age Pension payment once you reach age 67.

How much money do I need in my superannuation to afford that?

I’ve crunched the numbers so you don’t have to.

Using ASFA data, it looks like by age 67, single Australians need a superannuation balance of approximately $640,000 in order to fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle. Meanwhile, couples should have closer to $730,000.

Why are these figures so much lower than the $1 million superannuation benchmark we’re told we’ll need?

ASFA recently did a poll and found that 42% of Australians think that they need $1 million in their superannuation before they can retire. It makes sense, as this is the number that has been repeatedly drilled into us.

The reality is, you don’t actually need $1 million to retire in Australia. In fact, most retirees live comfortably with less if they’re able to combine an adequate superannuation balance with the government Age Pension payment.

But if you’re to live a more luxurious retirement, then a $1 million superannuation goal is definitely something to consider.

You’ll also need to take into account your life expectancy. For example, at a cost of $54,840 per year on a balance of around approximately $640,000. That means your superannuation will only be able to fund around 11 years of a comfortable retirement.

The more years of retirement you have to fund, the thinner your superannuation income will need to spread. 

Also, if you don’t own your home outright, you’ll also need to consider how you’ll pay your mortgage or rent on top of your other bills. It’s also wise to have an emergency fund set aside.

All things considered, maybe retiring with a minimum of $1 million of super isn’t as outrageous as you’d first think. 

The post How much superannuation do I really need to retire comfortably at age 67? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.