Category: Stock Market

The gold price is recovering on Friday, up 0.8% to US$4,816 per ounce at the time of writing.

That’s still a long way off the record US$5,608 per ounce reached last month.

Analysts at Trading Economics said the gold sell-off earlier this week was triggered by the US President’s Fed chair pick, plus profit-taking.

Global asset manager, Sprott, runs one of the world’s largest gold bullion investment funds, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (TSX: PHYS).

In an article last month, Sprott said gold was in a strong bull-run cycle with long-term tailwinds that are strengthening.

What got the gold price rising in the first place?

Let’s take a history lesson first.

Sprott explains that gold’s current bull cycle began in 2022 when Western authorities froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves.

That event shattered the assumption of reserve neutrality and triggered a reassessment of what constitutes “safe” assets.

Gold, as a non-sovereign, non-liability asset, regained strategic importance for central banks seeking to insulate themselves from geopolitical risk.

Central bank purchasing is the primary reason why gold remains in a bull cycle amid a strong global debasement trade today.

In 2023 and 2024, China emerged as the dominant buyer.

Faced with severe stress in its property sector and mounting debt burdens, Beijing adopted a dual strategy: accumulate gold and allow the yuan to weaken against it.

The scale of Chinese purchases during this period was unprecedented, signaling a structural shift in reserve management priorities.

Last year marked “another turning point” for the gold price, according to Sprott.

Global trade and tariff wars intensified, deepening deglobalization and eroding trust among central banks.

The fragmentation of financial systems elevated gold’s status as the ultimate neutral reserve asset.

By mid-year, the narrative broadened, as investors woke up to the systemic debasement of fiat currencies and bonds underway.

Over the last four months of 2025, gold surged as the debasement trade gained momentum, driven by liquidity injections, monetary inflation, and a decline in confidence in traditional hedges.

What is the debasement trade?

Debasement occurs when the purchasing power of currencies is eroded. We’ve seen this play out with the US dollar.

The Australian dollar briefly traded at a three-year high of 71 cents last month. A year prior, the AUD was worth about 62 US cents.

The ‘debasement trade’ is an investment strategy whereby investors rotate out of paper assets, like bonds, and into hard assets, like gold, to protect against inflation and lower currency values.

Persistent geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty also continue to support the gold price.

Sprott comments:  

Looking ahead to 2026, fiscal dominance is entrenched, with governments prioritizing debt sustainability over price stability, thereby ensuring that monetary inflation continues to grow.

Central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar is expected to continue, with emerging markets likely to accelerate their gold accumulation as geopolitical fragmentation persists.

Investor flows into gold ETFs and physical holdings are likely to remain strong, supported by portfolio rebalancing away from long-duration bonds and into real assets. 

Will the gold price continue to run?

Bank of America is forecasting gold to reach US$6,000 per ounce.

In a note to clients, BoA analyst Michael Hartnett said (courtesy Kitco News):

History no guide to future, but avg gold jump past 4 bull markets ≈ 300% in 43 months which would imply gold reaching $6,000 by spring.

Some analysts are even more optimistic.

Julia Du from ICBC Standard Bank thinks the gold price could crack the US$7,000 per ounce mark, commenting:

I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend.

Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust.

Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias.

Other experts are less ambitious with their forecasts.

Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for the gold price to US$5,400 per ounce.

Sprott says:

While gold’s 2026 price action may not match its remarkable 2025 rally, the risk skew remains to the upside, particularly under renewed liquidity waves or geopolitical shocks.

What does this mean for ASX gold shares?

Australia is the world’s third-largest gold producer.

ASX gold miners are well-placed to continue benefiting from the gold bull run, which has driven their share prices higher.

The Minerals Council of Australia says gold exports rose 42% to $47 billion in 2024-25, and are forecast to grow a further 28% to $60 billion in 2025-26, before stabilising in 2026-27.

That will make the yellow metal our second-largest export behind iron ore, surpassing coal and natural gas.

Council CEO Tania Constable said:

This unprecedented surge is being driven by record global prices and expanding mine output, combining to deliver a renewed period of strength for Australia’s gold industry.

The council expects production to rise from 293 tonnes in 2024-25 to 369 tonnes in 2026-27.

New and expanded projects across the country – including mill upgrades, extensions and new mines – are set to add around 67 tonnes to national production.

Meantime, ASX gold shares have soared.

Over the past 12 months, the Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price has risen 48%.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has increased by 142%.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are 117% higher.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 85% over 12 months.

The post Gold price recovers as reasons for buying ‘remain in place, but are also compounding’ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Amcor, Brazilian Rare Earths, Northern Star, and Pinnacle shares are racing higher today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD) shares are having a positive session on Friday.

Despite the market crumbling, the sleep disorder treatment company’s shares are up 1.5% to $37.98.

Investors have been buying the ASX 200 star since the release of another strong quarterly result at the end of last week.

Should you be joining them? Let’s see what analysts at Ord Minnett are saying about this blue chip.

What is Ord Minnett saying about this ASX 200 star?

Ord Minnett was impressed with ResMed’s performance during the second quarter, highlighting that its earnings were stronger than expected. This was driven largely by strong mask sales in the United States.

Commenting on the result, the broker said:

ResMed posted December-quarter EPS above market expectations, predominantly driven by strong sales of its masks in the key US market that supported a 16% rise in revenue in that segment, although mask sales in the rest-of-the-world (RoW) segment also grew, implying a gain in market share. Revenue growth in the residential care software (RCS) division was only 5% on a constant-currency basis although the company expects a pick-up in that pace to high single-digits by FY27.

Operating cash flow (OCF) proved the only disappointment in the quarter, albeit minor, rising 10% on a year ago but coming in 15% below Ord Minnett’s estimate due to a build-up of working capital. Gross margin 62.3% was up 310 basis points (bp) and circa 20bp ahead of market expectations, supported by cheaper component prices for its machines and masks and production efficiencies. ‍

Ord Minnett highlights that the ASX 200 star has lifted its gross margin guidance, which has underpinned an increase in its earnings estimates. However, due to the stronger Australian dollar, it has been forced to trim its valuation slightly. It explains:

ResMed is now guiding to an FY26 gross margin of 62–63%, up from 61–63% previously, and we have upgraded our own forecast to 62.4% from 64.1% as we incorporate cheaper input costs and production efficiencies into our numbers. A mark-to-market adjustment for the stronger Australian dollar currency means our target price in AUD falls to $43.70 from $44.56 despite a rise in our EPS forecasts.

Time to buy ResMed shares

Ord Minnett has a buy rating and $43.70 price target on the company’s shares. Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker revealed that it has “a strongly positive view” on the company following the result. It concludes:

We maintain a strongly positive view on ResMed as strong earnings growth boosts its net cash position, which should support higher dividends and more capital management. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.

The post Ord Minnett has a ‘strongly positive view’ on this ASX 200 star appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX shares going ex-dividend next week
• Why Brambles, HMC Capital, ResMed, and Rio Tinto shares are rising today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 reasons to buy this heavyweight ASX healthcare share
• Buy, hold, sell: Credit Corp, PLS, and ResMed shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stocks have come off the boil this week, with the index falling 1.8% at the time of writing on Friday afternoon. The week took a turn on Tuesday afternoon when the Reserve Bank announced it was raising the cash rate.

The good news is that even among investor uncertainty, some ASX 200 stocks are still catching analyst attention.

Here are four ASX 200 stocks which are tipped to climb another 70% to 80%, or higher, this year.

Iperionx Ltd (ASX: IPX)

Titanium metal and critical materials company, Iperonix, was one of the ASX 200’s best-performers in January. The company recently revealed that it has received a prototype purchase order valued at US$300,000 from American Rheinmetall. Iperonix also recently confirmed plans to ramp up production with the goal of becoming America’s largest and lowest-cost titanium powder producer. Analysts are bullish on the company’s shares and have a strong buy consensus rating for Iperionix. The maximum target price is $11.03, which implies a potential 83.76% upside at the time of writing.

ARB Corp Ltd (ASX: ARB)

ARB shares came under heavy pressure late last month after the 4WD accessories giant released its half-year trading update. The company’s unaudited sales revenue slumped 1% on the prior period, and aftermarket sales dropped 1.7%. But it looks like the shares are now trading below fair value, and analysts are optimistic that we’ll see a turnaround this year. The maximum target price is $42.25, which implies that the shares could increase 73.44% this year, from the share price at the time of writing.

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM)

Capricorn Metals posted record cash flow and production for the second quarter of FY26. The ASX 200 gold mining stock also benefited from support from the latest gold price rally. The company has some expansion plans in the pipeline too, meaning it’s well-placed to capture an uptick in gold demand this year. Analysts are bullish on its shares. The maximum target price is $24, which implies a potential 81.75% upside at the time of writing.

Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)

GDG posted consistently strong financial performance and earnings growth in 2025. Both return on equity and earnings growth have outpaced the industry average over the past year. Last month, the company posted record earnings and inflows for the December quarter, and it looks like the strong run of financial results will continue into 2026, too. Analysts are very bullish on the ASX 200 financial stock and tip an upside as high as 84.72% for the shares this year, to $8.46 a piece.

The post These 4 ASX 200 stocks could jump another 70% to 80% in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• These were the worst-performing ASX 200 shares in January
• These were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in January

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ARB Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ARB Corporation and Generation Development Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) shares are 1.9% lower at 8,977 points at the time of writing on Friday.

The market is limping towards the finish line after an interest rate rise seriously dampened the ‘vibe’ this week.

ASX All Ords shares are down 2.1% since Monday.

Earnings season officially began this week, and as the half-year (and some full-year) reports come in, dividends are being announced.

Next week, a small group of ASX shares will go ex-dividend.

That means they will start trading without the latest dividend attached.

On the ex-dividend date, it is very common for share prices to fall.

This happens because stocks are simply less valuable without their next dividends attached.

So, keep an eye out for sudden dips in some of your portfolio stocks over the next month or so.

Going ex-dividend will likely be the reason.

Why watch the ex-dividend date?

If you’ve researched an ASX share and are ready to buy, you might want to do so before the ex-dividend date to pick up some income.

Alternatively, you might prefer to wait until the ex-dividend date, when the stock price is likely to fall.

Either option presents an opportunity.

Here are several ASX shares going ex-dividend next week.

The biggest name is ASX All Ords heavyweight ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD), which makes sleep apnoea devices.

We also recap how much these companies will pay investors and when they will deposit the money into their accounts.

5 ASX shares about to go ex-dividend

ASX share	Ex-dividend date	Dividend amount	Payment date
BKI Investment Company Ltd (ASX: BKI)	9 February	4 cents	27 February
Sandon Capital Investments Ltd (ASX: SNC)	10 February	0.005 cents	27 February
ResMed CDI (ASX: RMD)	11 February	5.9 cents	19 March
Korvest Ltd (ASX: KOV)	12 February	25 cents	6 March
Plato Income Maximiser Ltd (ASX: PL8)	13 February	0.006 cents	27 February

Which companies are reporting next week?

The calendar is pretty busy next week.

On Monday, we’ll hear from Argo Investments Ltd (ASX: ARG) and CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR).

Then on Tuesday, Amotiv Ltd (ASX: AOV), Arena REIT (ASX: ARF), and Region Group (ASX: RGN) will be up.

On Wednesday, investors will hear from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL).

There will be strong interest in these earnings reports, given that both stocks have endured significant sell-offs over the past year.

We’ll also hear from ASX gold miner, Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).

Investors will be curious to see how one of the market’s largest miners has leveraged the soaring gold price to maximise profits.

We’ll also hear from AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL), James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX: JHX), and investment house SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH).

On Thursday, 3 ASX financial shares will be in the spotlight.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP), ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX), and Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) will release their earnings.

We’ll also hear from Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME), and Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW).

On Friday, Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) and Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) will be in the spotlight.

The post ASX shares going ex-dividend next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Brambles, HMC Capital, ResMed, and Rio Tinto shares are rising today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 reasons to buy this heavyweight ASX healthcare share
• Buy, hold, sell: Credit Corp, PLS, and ResMed shares
• What can investors expect from ResMed, Cochlear and CSL shares this reporting season?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Cochlear, ResMed, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Region Group and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd, CSL, Cochlear, Korvest, Nick Scali, Pro Medicus, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade on Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.4% for the week, but not every ASX 200 stock has joined in the sell-down.

Below, we look at three companies that have managed to shrug off this week’s tech-driven market retrace to jump higher. As you might expect, there are no tech stocks among them.

So, without further ado…

ASX 200 stocks rising in this week’s sinking market

The first stock that’s managed to post gains this week is Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB).

Shares in the supply chain logistics company – which counts as the world’s largest supplier of reusable wooden pallets and crates – closed last Friday trading for $22.40. With just a few hours left before this Friday’s closing bell, shares are changing hands for $23.19.

That sees this ASX 200 stock up 3.5% for the week.

There’s no fresh price-sensitive news out from Brambles this week. But with the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) down 13.1% over the week, investors may see the logistics company as a defensive alternative to growth stocks.

Moving on to the second ASX share lifting off despite the broader market retrace, we have GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG).

Shares in the ASX 200 financial services stock closed last week trading for $1.57 and are currently trading for $1.70.

This sees the GQG Partners share price up a solid 8.1% over the week, also with no recent price-sensitive news out from the company.

Which brings us to…

Leading the pack

The top performing share on my list for the week is Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC).

Shares in the global packaging giant closed last Friday at $62.49. Shares are currently trading for $68.93 each. This sees the Amcor share price up 10.3% for the week.

The ASX 200 stock closed up 3.5% on Wednesday following the release of its December quarter results. Shares closed up another 6.7% on Thursday.

Highlights from the quarter included a 68% boost in net sales to US$5.45 billion. That strong growth was largely driven by the company’s acquisition of United States-based packaging company, Berry Global. Amcor first announced the deal to acquire Berry on 20 November 2024, and completed its all-stock acquisition on 30 April 2025.

In other core financial metrics, Amcor reported an 83% year-on-year increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to US$826 million.

In light of this performance, and catching the interest of passive income investors, management declared an unfranked interim dividend of 93 Aussie cents per share.

Unlike most ASX 200 dividend stocks, Amcor pays quarterly dividends, with the latest declared payout up 356% from the prior corresponding quarter.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks jumping higher in this week’s falling market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Brambles, HMC Capital, ResMed, and Rio Tinto shares are rising today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Morgans names 2 ASX shares to buy now
• Why Amcor, Lovisa, Regal Partners, and SKS shares are pushing higher today
• These ASX shares look cheap and could reward patient investors

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Gqg Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) shares are in a trading halt today after the company requested a pause during late morning trade.

The halt comes as EOS prepares a response to a report released by US-based short seller Grizzly Research.

According to the ASX notice, trading will remain halted until EOS releases its response or until the market reopens on Tuesday, 10 February, whichever comes first.

EOS shares are currently frozen at $6.00, after plunging roughly 33% over the past week. That sharp fall has erased a large chunk of the stock’s recent gains and reset expectations after an extraordinary run higher earlier this year.

What triggered the trading halt?

At a high level, the Grizzly report questions how EOS has described parts of its recent disclosures. It does not point to a single accounting error or regulatory breach.

The report focuses on 3 main areas.

First, it raises concerns around the size, timing, and profitability of some recently announced contracts, particularly the US$80 million South Korean high-energy laser contract announced late last year. Grizzly argues that parts of this contract may be conditional and that revenue may take longer to flow than some investors expected.

Second, the report focuses on EOS’s recent acquisition of European command-and-control business MARSS, questioning whether the acquired company’s historical revenue base can realistically support the growth targets outlined by EOS management.

Third, it highlights cash flow pressure and past funding activity, suggesting EOS has relied heavily on asset sales and financing to fund operations while scaling new technology platforms.

EOS has not yet responded publicly to these claims, which explains the trading halt. The company is expected to address the report directly in its upcoming announcement.

What EOS actually does well

Despite the controversy, it is important to remember why EOS attracted investor attention in the first place.

The company designs and manufactures advanced defence technology, including remote weapon systems, counter-drone solutions, and high-energy laser platforms. Demand for these systems has surged as global defence spending accelerates.

In its last update, EOS reported a contract backlog of $459 million, providing visibility into revenue over the next few years. That backlog, combined with growing global interest in counter-drone and laser defence technology, supports the company’s longer-term growth outlook.

Risk versus reward at $6

Short sellers profit when share prices fall, so Grizzly’s report is written from a deliberately bearish perspective. That does not mean its claims should be ignored, but it does mean investors should wait for EOS’s response before drawing conclusions.

The steep sell-off suggests the market has already priced in much of the bad news. If EOS can clearly explain its contracts, acquisitions, and cash position, confidence could stabilise quickly once trading resumes.

Foolish takeaway

EOS shares have been extremely volatile, but the long-term defence growth drivers have not disappeared.

With the share price frozen at $6, attention now turns to EOS’s response. That update will play a key role in how investors judge the recent sell-off once trading restarts.

The post Why EOS shares are halted today after a sharp sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• 3 ASX shares I’d buy with $10,000 today
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• What is driving today’s sell-off in ASX defence tech stocks?
• Buy local: 3 Australian innovations to add to your watch list

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares are trading in the red on Friday afternoon. At the time of writing, the shares are down 4.35% to $4.40 a piece.

For the year-to-date, the miners’ shares have jumped 23.94% and they’re also trading 26.8% above levels this time last year. The share price dropped to a four-year low in September but quickly recovered, soaring 72.55% higher over the past five months alone. It was also one of the best performers on the ASX 200 index in January. 

What pushed South32 shares so high?

A broad metal and mining market rally, particularly for copper and silver, has flowed through to mining stocks and their shares. 

Strong central bank buying, falling US interest rates, and dwindling expectations for the US dollar’s outlook are driving investors to safe-haven commodities like gold and silver.

Meanwhile, there is strong demand for copper due to its use in green energy technologies. Copper is used in wiring, electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, solar energy systems, telecommunications, and electronic products.

The prices of copper, silver and gold have reached all-time highs this year. This momentum has helped pull South32’s shares up toward a multi-year high last month. 

South32 mines and produces commodities, including bauxite, aluminium, copper, silver, lead, zinc, nickel, manganese, and metallurgical coal, so it is well positioned to absorb excess demand across several minerals and metals.

But it wasn’t just the commodities boom driving South32’s shares higher. The miner has also posted some fantastic financial results over the past six months. 

In October, the miner released its quarterly report for the three months to September. Its production highlights included a 12% increase in payable copper at Sierra Gorda and a 33% uplift in manganese volumes. Its FY26 production guidance was unchanged across all operations.

The good news also flowed through to the December quarter. Last month, the miner announced that it had exceeded expectations for first-half production. Alumina production was up 3% in the first half; aluminium production was up 2%; zinc was up 13%; and manganese was up 58%. Overall, the company’s results were ahead of consensus. And investors were delighted with the news.

What do the experts expect from South32 shares this year?

Analysts are pretty bullish on the outlook for S32 shares. And it looks like it’s not too late for investors to get in on the action either.

TradingView data shows that 11 out of 15 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The average target price is $4.66 a piece, which implies a potential 6.06% upside at the time of writing. But some think the shares could climb another 20.05% to $5.28 this year.
The team at Morgans have a buy rating and $5.00 price target on South32 shares. The broker said it was pleased with the miner’s latest results and thinks it is well-placed to benefit from strong commodity prices.

The post South32 shares rocket 70% higher. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Can South32 shares keep surfing the commodities boom?
• These were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in January
• Sigma Healthcare, TechnologyOne, South32 shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
• ASX All Ords shares smashing 52-week highs today

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shareholders in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) would be smarting at the moment, with the shares down more than 50% over the past 12 months.

The question is: can new-ish chief executive officer Sam Fischer turn the ship around, or are the headwinds the company faces just too strong?

The analyst team at UBS is not convinced and has slapped a sell recommendation on the stock. More on that later.

For his part, Mr Fischer has not wasted any time in getting the message out to the market that he’s there to make changes, announcing in mid-December that the company would look to strip $100 million per annum in costs out of the business as part of its so-called “TWE Ascent” transformation program.

The company also cancelled its $200 million buyback at the time, in a bid to increase flexibility and lower debt levels.

Mr Fischer had this to say on the outlook at the time:

We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment. TWE is a high-quality business with strong foundations in place for sustainable, profitable growth. Our powerful portfolio of brands, leading market positions in attractive growth markets, unparalleled supply chain and highly engaged, capable team are all considerable strengths that position us strongly to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term.

Treasury does have some elements in its favour, not least the powerhouse wine label Penfolds.

Buyer in the wings?

The company also welcomed French billionaire Olivier Goudet to the share register as a significant shareholder in December, prompting questions about whether he could make a bid for the company.

Mr Goudet is well known in European business circles as the former head of JAB Holding, which managed the wealth of Germany’s Reimann family.

While in that role, Mr Goudet spearheaded the takeover of companies including Krispy Kreme and Pret a Manger, and according to a report in The Australian, he also personally bought a chateau in Bordeaux with his wife in 2021.

Mr Goudet, who was also the former Chief Financial Officer at Mars, stepped down from JAB Holding in 2023.

Shares not looking cheap

Despite these tailwinds, the UBS team is not convinced and has downgraded its price target on Treasury shares from $5.25 to $4.75, with a sell recommendation.

Treasury shares are currently changing hands for $5.01.

UBS said that, in terms of headwinds, there was a significant change in consumer behaviour, with young people drinking less than their older counterparts, an effect keenly felt in the key US and China markets.

Within alcohol, wine has underperformed other drinks, such as spirits and ready-to-drink brands, UBS said.

UBS added that the once large China market is potentially oversupplied with Penfolds.

Treasury was valued at $4.45 billion at the close of trade on Thursday.

The post Why UBS says it’s time to sell Treasury Wine Estates shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 1 ideal ASX dividend stock, down 50%, to buy and hold for a lifetime
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Down 49%, is there a once-in-a-decade opportunity in this ASX 200 stock?
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Life, as they say, is what happens when you’re making other plans.

Which is why, a couple of weeks ago, I wrote about choosing the right Super fund, and told you I’d be back soon with the second part of that story. But…

‘Soon’, as it turns out, isn’t as soon as I wanted it to be, but at least we finally made it back.

Last time, I ran through both ‘pooled’ Super funds (Retail and Industry Funds) and SMSFs, with some thoughts as to when each might be worth considering, based on the financial circumstances and interests of the member.

And, as I said last time, choosing the Super fund is like choosing a house to buy. The next step is choosing the furniture.

Where am I going with that clumsy metaphor? Well, the Fund gives you the structure. The next step is to choose how the money inside the fund will be invested.

Choice can, of course, be wonderful, but it can also be incredibly difficult and make life much more complex.

There are scores of choices right across the Superannuation spectrum, but we can break them down to only a few major categories, and that’s what I’m going to help you work through today.

Now, when you join a Superannuation fund, if you don’t make a choice, you’ll be put into the fund’s MySuper option. That’s generally what they call a ‘balanced’ option which has a mix of Australian shares, international shares, property, bonds, cash – pretty much the plain vanilla, don’t-scare-the-horses, option.

No surprises, lower volatility, and a pretty good, if not great, potential return.

Then there are other pre-mixed options, the most common of which will be ‘conservative’ or something similar, and ‘growth’ or ‘aggressive’.

The idea is that a so-called conservative investment option won’t be anywhere near as volatile, and will probably be in positive territory most of the time, but also probably won’t give you the best long-term return.

High growth or aggressive, on the other hand, will likely be far more volatile, at least compared to the conservative option. The thing is, by being concentrated in growth assets like Australian and international shares, for example, you also should expect a much better return over the long term.

Essentially, the options that are provided give you a trade-off – even if you don’t realise it – between the size of your long-term return and the degree to which any individual month or year varies significantly from the average; and even how frequently your overall Superannuation balance goes down.

So there are two parts to choosing the right option within Superannuation: the first is the sort of return you’re aiming for, and the second is your ability to sleep at night.

In fact, they probably should be considered the other way around.

The thing about investing is that unless you can stay the course, you’re probably not going to get the best returns. That means some people should probably make a more conservative choice so they can sleep at night… and not sell in a panic next time the market swoons. The trade off? You probably end up with lower overall returns.

Conversely, the best long-term returns are probably going to come from taking a little more perceived risk: embracing a little more volatility. But doing so by investing in assets – usually shares – that are going to give you a superior long-term performance.

At this point, I want to remind you about life expectancy.

No, I’m not going to get macabre, in fact, exactly the opposite.

Too many people, when they think about Superannuation, think about retirement day. Maybe you’re 25 or 40 or 55, and you’re counting the years between now and when you stop working, and you think about your Superannuation balance in the same context: “I will get my Super when I retire” is often the perspective most people bring to their investing.

The thing is, if you’re 40 today, there’s every chance, according to the actuaries, that you’ll be retired for longer than you have left to work. In other words, retirement is not the end of your Superannuation journey.

In fact, it may not even be halfway between now and when you finally shuffle off this mortal coil, and your Superannuation has to last you for that whole time.

Don’t get me wrong, this is not a suggestion that you don’t spend money in retirement.

You absolutely should. You’ve worked hard and saved hard for what you want to get out of that retirement.

Instead, my reminder is that if you are to maintain your Super for years after you retire, you need to think about that as a growth period as well as a drawdown period. You want compounding to be working for you so you can generate the income you need, to let you live a comfortable retirement life.

Now there’s no single answer and no silver bullet. Everybody’s temperament, risk tolerance, circumstances, Superannuation balance, and life expectancy will be different and largely unknowable, at least in advance.

But the framework I’m suggesting hopefully puts you on the right path: that is, think about how many years you have between now and when you’re likely to take your last breath. Again, not to be macabre, but exactly the opposite: to maximise your ability to enjoy your life to its fullest between now and then.

Let’s go back to temperament first. If you are someone who simply can’t stomach volatility, you probably shouldn’t be investing your Superannuation in growth options. Now let’s be clear, you’re giving up some potential return in doing so, but at least you’re not going to get scared and sell everything at exactly the wrong time: when the market has an occasional unfortunate, but real, dip from time to time.

I’m not doing you any favours by trying to encourage you to get a better return if you can’t actually follow through.

But let’s say you can. Let’s say you can maybe even comfortably put up with it. What should you do?

Well, I’m not allowed to give you personal advice, but in general, if you’ve got 40, 50, 60 years left of life – not of work, of life – then I reckon most people should be thinking about investing in growth options within their Superannuation to maximise the returns over that long term.

Yes, the returns in any given year might be more volatile, but overall, I fully expect – there are no guarantees, but I fully expect – you will do well… and much better if you take a little bit more risk and invest in assets whose value grows over time.

Here’s how to think about it: few people are going to retire, access their Super, sell everything, and go on the pension on the same day. If you are, then knowing how much you’ve got at 65 or 67 is really important.

But if you’re going to slowly draw down your Super over your retirement years – and remember that could be 20, 30, or 40 years–then your investment horizon is far, far longer than you may realise or have really internalised.

If you’re 40 and likely to live to 100, you have 60 years of investing ahead of you – probably three times as much to come as you have had so far.

In that case, isn’t your investment horizon much longer than otherwise might seem at first blush?

Now, in retirement you might still prioritise having some income from that portfolio or changing at some point how much of your money is invested in growth assets.

But given that timeframe, I hope it might also make you rethink how you’re structuring your investment choices, over both your working life and your retirement years.

So, depending on your temperament, growth probably should be the default for almost everybody, unless you need to draw down the capital – not just income, but the capital itself – from your Super upon retirement.

I should say here, by the way, that the usual disclaimer applies, both ethically and legally: past performance is no guarantee, and I can’t promise what the future will look like either. All I can tell you is that my Super remains in growth assets, and before my wife converted her Superannuation to our SMSF, her Industry Superannuation was invested under a growth strategy.

Are we good so far? Excellent. Stick with me… we’re almost there.

Now that I have you thinking about growth, I’m going to add one more option, and then we’ll wrap this up.

You don’t have to accept any or all of the pre-mixed options inside Superannuation.

The problem with the funds management industry in general, including Superannuation, is that there are plenty of snouts in this particular trough. It’s not even necessarily people doing the wrong thing, they just are all extracting their fees for the work that they’re doing, and you’re paying the bill.

So yes, if you don’t want to choose, or don’t know how to choose, how your Super is invested, these pre-mixed options are good choices. However, you can generally get a very good, and very likely better, outcome by making a few simple choices yourself.

Rather than accepting a relatively high-fee growth option, for example, most Superannuation providers will allow you to select specific Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). So, for example, rather than choosing the ‘growth’ option inside your Superannuation, you could choose to invest your Super in an Australian shares ETF, a US shares ETF, and/or a global shares ETF.

Again, you have to decide what’s right for you, but you’ll find the fees are almost certainly far lower in that circumstance than accepting one of the pre-mixed options – because those pre-mixed choices are usually invested with other fund managers who take their clip of the ticket. By self-selecting low-fee ETFs, you still pay an investment fee, but it’s incredibly tiny. You’re not paying for a fund manager to make those decisions on your behalf.

Now, if a fund manager can beat the market, they might be worth the fees you will pay. But in a pre-mixed option, are you likely to beat the market? If not – or if you don’t know – you may find that self-selecting some very low-fee ETFs is a much better way to go.

So let’s bring this to a close.

If you want to have an SMSF and choose your own stocks or indeed assets outside the share market, go for it. If you’re built for that and think you can do it successfully, an SMSF can be a great tool.

If not, here’s what I reckon probably presents the best long-term return for people who have the ability to stay the course:

If I wasn’t going to pick stocks, I would have my Superannuation in a large, low-cost, not-for-profit Superannuation fund, either an Industry fund or another not-for-profit Super fund.

And if my money was in that not-for-profit fund and I wanted a pre-mixed option, I would choose growth.

If I was comfortable to not go with a pre-mixed option – because I wanted to maximise my chance of the best return while keeping my fees low – I would direct my Super fund to invest my Super in a few low-cost, broad-based index ETFs: Australian, US and Global shares.

And that’s as simple and as hard as it needs to be.

Keep your fees low, choose short-term volatility as the price of (likely) higher long-term returns, add regularly, and invest right through your working life and keep investing through your retirement.

For many people, perhaps most, that probably means choosing plain vanilla index ETFs inside not-for-profit Superannuation funds.

Phew, this was long. So was the last one. And believe it or not, both were as simple and as short as I could make them without only giving you part of the story.

Remember, it’s not a prescription. I hope what I’ve given you instead is a way to think about making sure your Super is in the best fund and invested in the options that make most sense to you based on your circumstances, including your tolerance and comfort with volatility. And I hope I’ve encouraged you to be a lifetime investor, not just a working-life one.

After all, that’s what good investing is.

Fool on!

The post How is your super actually invested? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ugh — it’s been another shocker for ASX 200 tech shares this week.

The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) is currently 13.07% down over the past five days of trading.

And that’s no anomaly.

The new year has basically been a bin fire for ASX 200 tech stocks so far.

Check out this year-to-date (YTD) performance for the 11 ASX 200 market sectors.

S&P/ASX 200 market sector	YTD performance
Energy (ASX: XEJ)	7.1%
Materials (ASX: XMJ)	5.2%
Consumer Staples (ASX: XSJ)	2.4%
Healthcare (ASX: XHJ)	0.3%
Financials (ASX: XFJ)	0.1%
Consumer Discretionary (ASX: XDJ)	(1.9%)
Industrials (ASX: XNJ)	(2.6%)
Utilities (ASX: XUJ)	(3.2%)
Communications (ASX: XTJ)	(5.7%)
A-REIT (ASX: XPJ)	(5.8%)
Information Technology (ASX: XIJ)	(20.5%)

Oh, the pain for those of us invested in tech stocks!

Meantime, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has increased by 0.2% YTD.

So, why are ASX 200 tech shares in the trash?

Let’s review.

Why are ASX 200 tech shares in the trash?

Tech company valuations have been a concern for a while, particularly in the US, following another strong year for the sector in 2025.

A small group of large US-listed companies, including the Mag Seven, has driven extraordinary gains for the US market for a few years.

Now, investors are worried about the incredible volume of money that these companies are ploughing into artificial intelligence (AI), and whether the pay-off will be worth it.

In its Global Market Outlook for 2026, State Street Investment says:

… the US remains the epicenter of the AI trade with Magnificent 7 share price gains fueled by AI spending expectations.

Capital spending by this cohort is expected to grow to about $520 billion in 2026, or over 30% year-on-year.

This week, the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fell to its lowest point since November after Google parent company, Alphabet Inc, said it may spend as much as $US185 billion in capex this year.

Bank of America forecasts that overall AI capex will quadruple to $1.2 trillion by 2030.

Investors are also worried that AI itself will end up being a competitor to tech companies, especially software-as-a-service (SaaS) firms, if it can deliver similar services in the future.

Everything that happens in the US tech sector affects ASX 200 tech shares, as our market tends to follow the US every day.

In terms of local factors dragging ASX 200 tech shares down, an interest rate hike in Australia this week did no favours for the sector.

Additionally, some of the big players in ASX technology have come under share price pressure due to valuation concerns this year.

There have also been governance issues with the sector’s largest company, WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

On top of all that, mining shares have become the hottest trade in town, and this has diverted investors’ attention away from tech.

Impact on ASX 200 tech shares

Here is a sample of ASX 200 tech shares and how they are travelling in the YTD.

The WiseTech share price is $46.76, down 6.3% today and down 32% YTD.

The Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) share price is $79.65, down 3% on Friday and down 29% YTD.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are $21.89 apiece, down 4.9% today and down 21% YTD.

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares are $12.43, down 6% today and down 0.9% YTD.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares are $9.97, down 8.8% today and down 19% YTD.

The post Why are ASX 200 tech shares diving 13% this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Megaport, Technology One, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.