Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares are in the spotlight on Thursday.

In morning trade, the ASX 200 stock is down 2% to $25.34.

Why is this ASX 200 stock falling?

Investors have been selling the investment platform provider’s shares despite it delivering another solid quarterly update, highlighted by record inflows and continued momentum across its platform.

According to the release, Netwealth reported total custodial inflows of $8.4 billion for the December 2025 quarter, marking its second consecutive quarterly record. This performance underpinned solid growth in funds under administration and reinforced Netwealth’s position as one of Australia’s fastest-growing wealth platforms.

Netwealth finished the quarter with total funds under administration (FUA) of $125.6 billion, up 23.6% year on year. During the quarter alone, total FUA increased by $4.8 billion, driven by a combination of net flows of $4.2 billion and positive market movements of $0.6 billion.

While reported net flows were slightly impacted by the exit of two low-revenue institutional clients, management highlighted that net flows excluding these accounts reached a record $4.6 billion, or $5.0 billion excluding pension payments. This suggests underlying demand from advisers and clients remains very strong. Over the past 12 months, custodial inflows have totalled an impressive $30.3 billion.

Managed accounts

A key driver of growth during the quarter was the ASX 200 stock’s managed accounts business. The company reported a record $1.8 billion in managed account net flows, up a sizeable 61.4% on the prior corresponding period.

As a result, managed account funds under management (FUM) rose to $27.5 billion, representing growth of 32.3% year on year. Overall FUM increased to $31.4 billion, up 30.6% over the same period last year.

Netwealth also added 39 new managed account models during the quarter, supporting further adoption by advisers. Managed accounts now make up 21.9% of total FUA, highlighting their growing importance to the platform.

The ASX 200 stock’s CEO and managing director, Matt Heine, was pleased with the quarter. He said:

Our customers are central to our strategy and our focus remains on both understanding and delivering solutions that meet our client needs. We’re pleased to be adding individual HIN administration and reporting for our users, providing this important and new market with access to the Netwealth platform functionality including enhanced user experiences and customer options while delivering adviser capacity.

Equally as pleasing is the Netwealth Private offering that can operate as a standalone solution or in conjunction with our individual HIN offering. These solutions continue to underpin our Ultra and High Net Wealth offering and demonstrates our significant experience and capability in this segment.

Why are its shares falling?

While Netwealth has delivered strong growth in the second quarter, it is slower than what Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) reported this week. This could mean that some investors are switching their allegiance to its rival on the belief that its outlook is stronger.

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock is dropping despite delivering strong Q2 growth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Netwealth Group posts record fund inflows in Q2 FY26
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) is in the red today.

Resolute Mining shares closed yesterday trading for $1.335. In early morning trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $1.315 apiece, down 1.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.7%, following US stock markets higher after Donald Trump pulled back on his military and tariff threats over Greenland.

With today’s dip factored in, Resolute Mining shares remain up a blistering 222% since this time last year. This gives the West African-focused gold miner a market cap of $2.8 billion.

Now, here’s what investors are mulling over today.

(*Note, all dollar figures below are in US dollars.)

ASX 200 gold stock dips on update

Resolute Mining shares are slipping following the release of the company’s fourth-quarter (Q4 2025) update.

Highlights from the three months to 31 December include a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in gold production to 65,918 ounces.

The ASX 200 gold stock produced the yellow metal at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,877 per ounce, down from $2,205 per ounce in Q3 2025.

And quarterly capital expenditure (excluding exploration) declined by 31% from the prior quarter to $18.4 million.

In other core financial metrics, the ASX 200 gold stock reported operating cash flow generation of $85.7 million, up 26% from Q3.

And on the balance sheet, the miner held cash, cash equivalents, and bullion of $266 million at the end of 2025.

Looking to the year ahead, Resolute Mining provides 2026 production guidance of 250,000 to 275,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of $2,000 to $2,200 per ounce.

That compares to full-year 2025 gold production of 277,236 ounces at an AISC of $1,843 per ounce.

Resolute Mining shares could be under some pressure today, however, with 2024 gold production coming in at 339,869 ounces.

What did management say?

Commenting on the quarterly results for the ASX 200 gold stock today, Resolute Mining CEO Chris Eger said, “Despite supply chain challenges in Mali and the transition to stockpile processing at Mako, we have achieved strong financial and operating performance.”

Eger added:

Gold production was in-line with initial guidance and net cash generation over the year was $140 million driven by a very strong Q4. We advanced key projects such as the SSCP and Mako Life Extension Project, managed operating costs across all sites, restructured the executive teams, delivered exploration success and stabilised government relations.

2025 also saw Resolute Mining acquire the Doropo and ABC Projects in Cote d’Ivoire (formerly Ivory Coast).

Eger noted that Doropo is on track for maiden gold production in the first half of 2028.

Looking to future potential growth prospects for the ASX 200 gold stock, Eger said, “Exploration remains at the heart of Resolute’s strategy, underpinning our ambition to deliver sustained growth and maximise long-term shareholder value.”

The post Up 222% in a year, $2.8 billion ASX 200 gold stock delivers ‘very strong’ fourth quarter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The large listed investment company (LIC) Australian Foundation Investment Co Ltd (ASX: AFI) released its FY26 half-year result yesterday, revealing a number of interesting S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share investment choices it thinks could help it lift performance.

For example, AFIC decided to trim its Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share positions on valuation grounds. It hopes to invest in those names if they come down to a more appealing price, according to AFIC.

There were a few ASX 200 shares that AFIC invested. It said its buying was concentrated in two blue-chip companies where it sees an attractive dividend yield combined with high-quality and attractive valuation. Let’s take a look at what AFIC liked about them.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

AFIC said that Telstra shares remains the dominant leader in an attractive industry that continues to be driven by a growing population’s increasing usage of data.

The investment team believe ASX 200 telco share returns are improving and the balance sheet is in good shape, which should result in a high fully franked dividend yield that AFIC believes can grow over time.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

The ASX supermarket share has gone through a rough time as it underperformed Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares.

AFIC noted that Woolworths has recently delivered some “disappointing” financial results because of poor execution in its core supermarkets business.

The LIC believes the ASX 200 share’s issues are temporary and this has given AFIC the opportunity to invest in a high returning, defensive business that provides its portfolio with a “good mix of fully franked dividend income plus growth”.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

AFIC also revealed that it continues to build its investment in Sigma Healthcare shares in a patient and disciplined manner by taking advantage of some recent short-term underperformance in the share price. The below chart shows how the ASX healthcare share has been volatile recently.

Following the merger with Chemist Warehouse, Sigma Healthcare is now Australia’s leading retail pharmacy franchisor, distributor and wholesaler.

AFIC thinks the ASX 200 share has a strong track record of execution with double-digit revenue growth over the past two decades.

The ASX healthcare share continues to have a long growth runway, according to the LIC, as it operates in an attractive, strongly growing healthcare and beauty retail category in which it is winning market share. AFIC said Sigma Healthcare primarily offers its portfolio an attractive level of capital growth alongside modest, albeit strongly growing, dividends.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares this fund manager says are buys for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) are trading higher after the company announced a major boost to cash flows over the December quarter.

The Adelaide-based oil and gas company said in a statement on Thursday that cash flow for the quarter was about $380 million, which was up 30% on the prior quarter.

This also brought cash flow for the full year to about $1.8 billion.

Production for the fourth quarter was 22.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), up 15% on the prior quarter, bringing the full-year result to 87.7 mmboe, near the upper end of guidance of 87-88 mmboe.

Sales revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.2 billion, up 9% on the prior quarter, bringing the full-year result to more than $4.9 billion.

Solid result across the board

Santos Managing Director Kevin Gallagher said it was an operationally excellent result as well as being strong on the financial front.

The fourth quarter lifted free cash flow for the full year to approximately $1.8 billion, a strong result in a year of relatively soft commodity prices for the industry, which demonstrates the value of our focus on margin in our marketing and trading activities. The performance of the base business has been a real highlight in 2025 with strong production despite the impact of the biggest floods in the Cooper Basin since the 1970s. Santos now has a strong platform for production growth with Barossa’s first LNG cargo currently loading at Darwin. We have taken a very considered approach to the final stages of commissioning to ensure offshore operations achieve a steady state, high level of reliability as quickly as possible once full production is achieved.

Mr Gallagher said Santos was also moving close to first production from the Pikka oil project in Alaska, “positioning the company to deliver sustainable returns to our shareholders and continue to reinvest in the business to grow production”.

Drilling at Pikka continues to perform strongly, with the 23rd well achieving the highest productivity so far, with an initial rate of approximately 8,000 barrels of oil per day. The 24th well was the second combination well, developing two downhole reservoir sections with one well. The drilling capability and innovation developed at Pikka will underpin our strategy for future developments. Once at full rates, Barossa LNG and Pikka phase 1 together are expected to lift Santos’ production by around 25 to 30 per cent by 2027 compared to 2024 levels.

Mr Gallagher said the company had a cash flow breakeven target of $45-$50 per barrel of oil for the current year, which “will position Santos over the next few years to deliver sustainable results and provide strong returns for our shareholders”.

Santos’ production guidance for 2026 is for 101-111 mmboe, a significant uplift from 2025.

Santos shares were 2.9% higher in early trade at $6.23.

The company was valued at $19.68 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

The post Santos shares increase on strong quarterly cash flows appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is in focus after the energy producer reported fourth quarter free cash flow from operations of approximately $380 million, up 30% on the previous quarter, and full year sales revenue topping $4.9 billion.

What did Santos report?

• Fourth quarter free cash flow from operations: ~$380 million (up 30% quarter on quarter); full year: ~$1.8 billion
• Fourth quarter production: 22.3 mmboe (up 5% on previous quarter); full year: 87.7 mmboe
• Fourth quarter sales volumes: 24.8 mmboe (up 15% quarter on quarter); full year sales volumes: 93.5 mmboe
• Fourth quarter sales revenue: $1.23 billion (up 9% on previous quarter); full year: $4.94 billion
• Full year unit production cost: below $7 per boe (excluding Bayu Undan), within guidance
• Gearing: 26.8% (down 1.4% from end of prior quarter)

What else do investors need to know?

Santos reported strong operational momentum, with improved Cooper Basin production following post-flood recovery and the ramp-up of domestic gas in Western Australia after third quarter shutdowns. The company also received over 900,000 Australian Carbon Credit Units for its Moomba Carbon Capture and Storage project, reflecting strong compliance with emissions standards.

The Barossa LNG project reached a milestone, commencing LNG production, and its first cargo is now being loaded for delivery to Japan. Drilling in Alaska’s Pikka phase 1 project nears completion, positioning Santos for new oil volumes in early 2026.

Santos strengthened its balance sheet by raising $1 billion in new fixed-rate bonds, fully repaying legacy PNG LNG project finance, and divesting non-core assets. A favourable legal settlement also bolstered liquidity.

What did Santos management say?

Santos Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher said:

The fourth quarter lifted free cash flow for the full year to approximately $1.8 billion, a strong result in a year of relatively soft commodity prices for the industry, which demonstrates the value of our focus on margin in our marketing and trading activities.
… Santos now has a strong platform for production growth with Barossa’s first LNG cargo currently loading at Darwin. … Once at full rates, Barossa LNG and Pikka phase 1 together are expected to lift Santos’ production by around 25 to 30 per cent by 2027 compared to 2024 levels.

What’s next for Santos?

Looking to 2026, Santos has issued production guidance of 101 to 111 mmboe, up from 2025’s level, and expects capital expenditure in the range of $1.95 to $2.15 billion. Increased LNG and oil volumes from Barossa and Pikka are expected to boost growth, alongside ongoing emissions reduction initiatives.

The company plans to continue disciplined capital allocation, maintaining a focus on cost and operational excellence. Several asset sales, a disciplined capital structure, and large-scale projects are expected to support shareholder returns.

Santos share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Santos shares have declined 15%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Santos delivers strong Q4 cash flow and production appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 shares this fund manager says are buys for 2026
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• Insignia Financial grows FUMA to $342bn in 2Q26: Key results for investors
• Sandfire Resources shares: December 2025 quarter results
• South32 grows output and returns cash: December 2025 quarterly earnings update

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL) share price is in focus after reporting a modest $1.5 billion lift in funds under management and administration (FUMA) to $342.0 billion as at 31 December 2025, along with robust inflows into its Wrap and multi-asset solutions.

What did Insignia Financial report?

• FUMA increased by 0.4% to $342.0 billion over the quarter
• Net outflows for the quarter were $73 million
• Net inflows into Wrap products totalled $1.5 billion
• Multi-Asset solutions notched up net inflows of $779 million
• Master Trust (Superannuation) FUA decreased by $1.7 billion to $137.1 billion
• Asset Management FUM was $94.5 billion, down $66 million

What else do investors need to know?

Insignia Financial saw internal transfers as part of a product migration, with $1.9 billion moved from Master Trust into Expand Extra, aiming to streamline offerings and lower fees for customers. The company also rolled out a refreshed direct-to-consumer MLC Super Fund website and new branding, targeting better experiences and easier onboarding for members.

The business is advancing on its proposed acquisition by CC Capital, with regulatory approvals on track and a shareholder vote anticipated in the first half of 2026.

What did Insignia Financial management say?

CEO Scott Hartley said:

This quarter, our focus has been on maintaining momentum across the business, as we continue to deliver on the strategic priorities outlined in our 2030 Vision and Strategy. FUMA increased to $342.0 billion, supported by positive market movements, encouraging net inflows into Wrap, and continued net inflows into Asset Management’s retail multi-asset and Managed Accounts offerings.

What’s next for Insignia Financial?

Insignia Financial is continuing its work to become Australia’s leading and most efficient diversified wealth management company by 2030. The company is investing in adviser experience, member engagement, and digital innovation, while also focusing on continuous improvement in product offerings and operational efficiency.

The upcoming shareholder vote on the CC Capital acquisition is a major near-term event, with management expecting regulatory requirements to be resolved in the coming months.

Insignia Financial share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Insignia Financial has risen 5%, slightly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Insignia Financial grows FUMA to $342bn in 2Q26: Key results for investors appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 shares this fund manager says are buys for 2026
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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) share price has been bouncing around in January.

But the good news for shareholders is that the overall trajectory has been upwards, with the counter-drone technology company’s shares up almost 30% year to date.

The even better news is that Bell Potter believes this run can continue.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter has been looking at the drone industry and likes what it sees.

As well as favourable defence trends from modern warfare, the broker believes the company stands to benefit from counter-drone usage at sports events.

In fact, it is expecting the company to be a big winner from the upcoming World Cup in North America. Commenting on its opportunity, Bell Potter said:

We believe the key catalyst for DRO in CY26 is the potential awards stemming from the US Public Safety market, notably from the US$250m funds allocated to states hosting the FIFA World Cup and the America 250 events for C-UAS protection. We would be disappointed if DRO did not receive material awards from these events.

The broker also notes that it has boosted its earnings estimates for the medium term to reflect a number of items. It adds:

We revise EPS higher by +4%/+8%/+3% across CY25-27e reflecting: lower diluted shares assumptions; higher tax rate; higher opex with DRO accelerating headcount ahead of expectations; and +5%/+5% higher revenue in CY26/27e due to the enactment of the Safer Skies Act.

Where next for the DroneShield share price?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the company’s shares with an improved price target of $5.00 (from $4.40).

Based on the current DroneShield share price of $4.32, this implies potential upside of approximately 16% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

We believe DRO has a market leading RF detect/defeat C-UAS offering and a strengthening competitive advantage owing to its years of battlefield experience and large and focused R&D team. We expect 2026 will be an inflection point for the global C-UAS industry with countries poised to unleash a wave of spending on RF detect and defeat solutions.

Consequently, we believe DRO should see material contracts flowing from its $2.5b potential sales pipeline over the next 3-6 months as defence budgets roll over to FY26e. At 47x CY26e EV / EBITDA, DRO trades at a 34% discount to the global drone peer group. Further, we see upside risk to our revenue forecasts in CY26/27e, given the opportunities observed in the soft-kill C-UAS industry.

The post Is the DroneShield share price heading to $5.00? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price is in focus today after the company reported group sales revenue of $344 million and an underlying operations EBITDA of $187 million for the December 2025 quarter.

What did Sandfire Resources report?

• Unaudited group sales revenue of $344 million in Q2 FY26
• Underlying operations EBITDA of $187 million for the quarter
• Underlying EBITDA of $167 million and net cash of $13 million at 31 December 2025
• Group copper equivalent production of 72.1 kt in H1 FY26 (46% of annual guidance mid-point)
• MATSA copper equivalent production of 46.4 kt; Motheo copper equivalent production of 25.7 kt
• TRIF safety metric improved to 1.3 as of December 2025

What else do investors need to know?

Sandfire reported solid progress at its Spanish and Botswana mining hubs. MATSA’s production was on track with annual guidance, helped by higher grade ore and improved processing recoveries, while Motheo saw a temporary dip in production due to rescheduled maintenance and mobile fleet availability.

Investment in exploration remains a focus, with $10 million spent on regional and near-mine drilling across Spain, Portugal, and Botswana during the quarter. The company’s recent binding term sheet with Havilah Resources provides a pathway to acquire a majority stake in the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project and build an exploration alliance in South Australia.

What did Sandfire Resources management say?

Sandfire CEO and Managing Director Brendan Harris said:

The further reduction in our Group TRIF to 1.3 at the end of the December quarter reflects significant effort and focus from our operational teams. While this is a pleasing outcome, we continue to see high potential incidents in our workplace that we must learn from to ensure we further strengthen our control environment and raise awareness of the risks our people and contractors encounter every day.

While we have achieved our targeted balance sheet position and finished with $13M of net cash as at 31 December 2025, it should be noted that the proposed transaction with Havilah contemplates a A$31.5M cash payment upon the satisfaction of all conditions precedent, as well as a further A$15M payment to support the initial phase of the exploration strategic alliance in the Curnamona Province. Our talented people, strong balance sheet, modern mining complexes and exposure to a preferred suite of commodities, ensures the Group is exceptionally well positioned to fund these commitments and prosper in the current environment.

What’s next for Sandfire Resources?

Sandfire has maintained all production and cost guidance for FY26, with copper equivalent output expected to be more heavily weighted towards the second half of the financial year. The company will ramp up exploration activities at Motheo and advance the Kalkaroo transaction, pending Havilah shareholder approval in February 2026.

Management is also reviewing the Black Butte Copper Project’s role in the global portfolio, following an updated pre-feasibility study that supports the project’s economics and growth potential.

Sandfire Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Sandfire Resources shares have risen 91%, strongly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 4% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Sandfire Resources shares: December 2025 quarter results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) are trading near their record highs, but the team at Bell Potter thinks they can push even higher over the next 12 months.

Evolution this week released a quarterly report characterised as “strong” by the Bell Potter team, with record mine cash flow of $1.1 billion, which was a 57% increase from the September quarter.

The mining company said it was on track to deliver its full-year production at lower than the original cost guidance, with its December quarter production of 191,000 ounces of gold and 18,000 tonnes of copper produced at an all-in sustaining cost of $1275 per ounce.

The company’s cash balance also increased, up $187 million to $967 million, with Evolution’s gearing falling from 11% at the end of September to 6%.

Evolution’s guidance remained at 710,000-780,000 ounces of gold and 70,000-80,000 tonnes of copper, with copper expected to come in towards the lower end of this range due to a weather event at the Ernest Henry mine.

Lower costs key to cash flows

The Bell Potter team noted that the cost of production had fallen 26% quarter on quarter, “as copper by-product credits made a significantly increased contribution”.

They went on to say:

This was a very positive result, demonstrating consistent operational delivery, capital discipline and surging cash flows due to Evolution’s effectively unhedged gold exposure. It also highlighted Evolution’s copper kicker – a key aspect of its business that differentiates it from the majority of its peers but, in our view, is often overlooked by the market. Evolution’s annualised copper production of 70-80ktpa is a significant boost to margins, free cash flow and shareholder returns. The market is becoming more attuned to this with the rising copper price and, combined with Evolution’s other attributes, we expect this to continue driving Evolution’s outperformance.

Bell Potter has increased its earnings per share forecasts for Evolution by 32% for FY26 on the back of the quarterly update, increasing to a 62% uplift for FY27 and 53% for FY28.

They also noted that the company “has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders”.

Bell Potter has increased its price target on Evolution Mining shares to $16.70, up from $12.35.

That would represent a 12.9% increase from current levels, and once dividends are factored in, the total shareholder return over a 12-month period is expected to be 16.7%.

Evolution was valued at $30.03 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

The post This gold and copper producer is forecast to deliver double-digit returns appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Evolution Mining, Lynas Rare Earths, Paladin Energy, and Sovereign Metals shares are racing higher today
• Up 156% in a year, Evolution Mining shares rocketing again today on record setting results
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• Prediction: Evolution Mining shares will halve in value in 2026

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you have a high tolerance for risk, then it could be worth considering Adveritas Ltd (ASX: AV1) shares according to Bell Potter.

That’s because the broker believes this small cap ASX tech share could have major upside potential.

What is Adveritas?

This small cap ASX tech share is a technology company that develops software solutions for enterprise customers to help maximise the return on digital advertising spend.

Its key product is TrafficGuard, which is a SaaS platform that detects and intercepts fraudulent traffic in real time. This enables advertisers to reduce wasted ad spend and optimise their budgets.

Bell Potter notes that the market for ad fraud software like TrafficGuard is relatively nascent, but is growing rapidly and Adveritas is already a leading global player.

What is the broker saying about this small cap ASX tech share?

Bell Potter notes that Adveritas recently released its quarterly update and revealed annualised recurring revenue (ARR) ahead of expectations. It said:

ARR of $14.3m at the end of Q2 was up 17% on the end of Q1 and 2% ahead of our forecast of $14.0m. In absolute terms, ARR grew $2.1m in Q2 which was similar to the $1.7m in Q1 and $2.6m in Q4 of FY25 so there has now been three consecutive quarters of c.$2m growth.

And while the small cap ASX tech share’s cash generation was lower than expected, the broker thinks this was driven by a customer preference for monthly plans rather than annual plans. It adds:

Net operating cash was an outflow of $0.7m whereas we were expecting an inflow of $0.5m. The miss was driven by both lower cash receipts ($3.2m vs BPe $4.0m) and higher cash payments ($3.9m vs BPe $3.5m) than we were forecasting. The lower cash receipts appear to be largely driven by the continued shift from annual to monthly payments by customers. The cash balance at 31 December was $6.9m which was only marginally down on the $7.0m at 30 September.

Should you invest?

Looking ahead, Bell Potter continues to believe that the small cap can achieve ARR of $17.8 million in FY 2026. In light of this, the broker thinks it could be a good option for investors looking for exposure to the small side of the market.

According to the note, it has retained its speculative buy rating on Adveritas’ shares with a trimmed price target of 22 cents (from 23 cents).

Based on its current share price of 12.5 cents, this implies potential upside of 76% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker concludes:

We have rolled forward our EV/Revenue valuation a year and now apply a 6x multiple to forecast FY27 revenue. We have also increased the risk-free rate in the DCF from 4.25% to 4.5% which has increased the WACC we apply from 9.9% to 10.1%. The net result is a 4% decrease in our price target to $0.22 which is >15% premium to the share price so we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Potential catalysts include the next quarterly in April where another quarter of c.$2m ARR growth will make our year end forecast of $17.8m look increasingly achievable if not conservative. There may also be positive news flow around new agency and/or channel partnerships.

The post This small cap ASX tech share could have 75% upside appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.