• Former President Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts in New York.
• Now a convicted felon, he is also the presumptive Republican nominee for president in 2024.
• A presidential candidate can still run for office despite being convicted of a crime.

Donald Trump is now officially a convicted felon. But can he still become president? 

Short answer: Yes, according to the Constitution.

A New York jury convicted the former president on 34 felony counts on Thursday, reigniting a wave of questions about what it means for his 2024 presidential campaign.

A presidential candidate can, indeed, still run for office despite being convicted of a crime, according to the US Constitution. 

Article II of the constitution lays out the requirements for any presidential candidate: They must be at least 35 years of age, they must have resided in the US for at least 14 years, and they must be a natural-born US citizen.

The Constitution does not bar presidential candidates who have been charged or convicted of crimes.

In fact, the Constitution does not even disqualify presidential candidates who are incarcerated, legal experts previously told Insider.

Two presidential candidates — Eugene Debs in 1920 and Lyndon LaRouche in 1992 — ran for the Oval Office from behind bars, though neither won. Debs had been serving time in a federal prison for violating the Espionage Act, and LaRouche had been convicted of committing mail fraud and campaign fraud conspiracy.

The jury found Trump guilty on all 34 felony charges of falsifying business records ahead of the 2016 election to cover up an alleged affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels.

The jury's decision to convict Trump makes him the first former president in US history to be convicted of a felony. Trump has denied the affair and any wrongdoing, saying he's a "very innocent man" and that he's been targeted by his political foes.

• Costco still won't raise its membership fee, saying it's still a matter of when, not if.
• The wholesale club last raised fees in 2017, and about every five years before that.
• Membership fees represent more than half the company's operating income.

Costco is once again kicking the can on raising its membership fee.

"I would really kind of revert back to some of the comments that Richard shared previously," CFO Gary Millerchip told investors Thursday, referring to his predecessor, Richard Galanti, who said last year that a Costco membership fee increase would "happen at some point."

"There's nothing about anything that we see within how the business is performing that's changing our view on that," Millerchip said.

The wholesale club last raised fees in 2017, and analysts have noted that an increase is long overdue, based on the typical five- to six-year interval of prior hikes.

Because Costco sells merchandise at extremely low mark-ups, membership fees are a key way the company is able to turn a profit.

Costco reported nearly $1.1 billion in revenue from membership fees last quarter, representing more than half its operating income.

Costco now boasts nearly 134 million member cardholders, up 7.4% from a year ago, and said more than 90% of members renew each year.

The company has resisted a fee increase in favor of alternatives like encouraging entry-level members to upgrade and last year's Netflix-style crackdown on shoppers improperly sharing membership cards.

"It's something that is still a case of when we increase the fee, rather than if we increase the fee, but we're still evaluating those considerations to determine what the right timing is," Millerchip said.

In addition, a fee increase would put Costco's $60 basic Gold Star membership even more ahead of competitors BJ's Wholesale and Sam's Club, who charge $55 and $50, respectively.

• Trump's odds of going to jail for his 'hush-money' conviction are slim to none, experts said.
• "I do not see a scenario where Donald Trump spends one minute in jail," one defense attorney told Business Insider.
• It's more possible Trump could face a fine, community service, or probation, experts said.

The chances of Donald Trump spending any time behind bars after a jury found Trump guilty on all counts in his New York hush-money trial are slim to none, legal experts told Business Insider. 

The jury in Trump's historic trial found him guilty on Thursday of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a $130,000 hush-money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels. A sentencing hearing is expected in July, and the president can still appeal the verdict.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg could technically seek to lock up Trump during sentencing, given that felony falsifying of business records allows a sentence of anywhere from zero jail time up to a maximum of four years in prison.

But first-time offenders virtually never go to jail for these kinds of non-violent, low-level felonies. Prosecutors can also ask for other penalties — including a hefty fine, community service, and probation.

"I can't say for absolute 100% certainty there can't be jail because on the books, he can go to jail," said high-profile defense attorney and former Brooklyn prosecutor Arthur Aidala.

But, Aidala said, "I do not see a scenario where Donald Trump spends one minute in jail."

Aidala and other defense attorneys told Business Insider that it is beyond rare for a defendant in New York to get locked up on a non-violent, first-offense, E-level felony. 

"In New York State and in particular New York County, it is extraordinarily rare for a 70-something-year-old man, first arrest, who was convicted of a low-level non-violent felony to be incarcerated," said Mark Bederow, a defense attorney and former prosecutor for the Manhattan district attorney's office.

But Bederow noted that there is "no comparison" to this "unprecedented" case as Trump — a frontrunner in the 2024 presidential election.

"If there was anyone who would be incarcerated over this type of crime, it would be an elected official," said former Manhattan prosecutor, Jeremy Saland, now a lawyer in private practice. "That said, to think for a moment that Trump is going to be incarcerated? That would shock me, for practical reasons and for reasons of allowing anger and divisiveness to fester."

Aidala said that Bragg — a Democrat who has instructed prosecutors in his office to only seek jail or prison time for the most serious of crimes — "would lose all credibility in the entire legal community" if his prosecutors sought to put Trump behind bars. 

"It would be so beyond normal," Aidala said. "It would fly in the face of everything that [Bragg's] doing in that office, which is to try and keep people out of jail."

Bederow predicted there would even be  Trump detractors who would speak out to say incarcerating him is "dangerous" and a "bad precedent."

Defense attorneys told Business Insider that besides jail time, prosecutors could try to impose a large fine, community service, or probation on the former president.

Aidala said if prosecutors "really want to embarrass" the former president "they may ask for community service."

Any kind of community service would likely be "private," so Trump couldn't be "out there cleaning a park or picking up garbage," Aidala said. 

• Donald Trump's campaign quickly fundraised off of his status as a convicted felon.
• "I'm a political prisoner," a graphic on Trump's campaign website read.
• President Joe Biden's campaign also fundraised shortly after the verdict was announced.

Former Donald Trump's campaign sought to immediately capitalize on the fact that he is now a convicted felon.

"I'm a political prisoner," a graphic on Trump's campaign site read after a Manhattan jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.

Trump is not a prisoner yet. Justice Juan Merchan has set sentencing for July 11. It is possible the former president could avoid prison time, though he could also be sentenced to time behind bars.

"I was just convicted in a RIGGED political Witch Hunt trial: I DID NOTHING WRONG," the graphic continued.

President Joe Biden's campaign, which mostly avoided commenting on the proceedings, also jumped at the opportunity.

"There's only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box," Biden's political account posted on X. "Donate to our campaign today:"

In the past, Trump's legal struggles have juiced his fundraising. The former president's campaign turned his mugshot into merchandise and now offers signs showcasing it at his rally.

Before Thursday, no former president had ever been convicted of a crime. Trump is also the first former president to face a criminal indictment.

Polling has shown that some voters may been influenced by the verdict, but that was all theoretical until the verdict came in.

This is a breaking news story. Stay with Business Insider for more updates.

• Donald Trump has reacted to the verdict in his criminal New York hush-money trial. 
• A jury found Trump guilty of criminal charges related to a hush-money payment made to a porn star.
• Prosecutors alleged Trump falsified 34 documents to cover up the $130,000 payment.

Former President Donald Trump, now a convicted felon, fumed over the verdict in his historic New York hush-money trial on Thursday, insisting that he's "a very innocent man."

A Manhattan jury on Thursday found the 77-year-old presumptive Republican presidential nominee guilty on criminal charges related to a hush-money payment made to porn star Stormy Daniels.

"This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge that was corrupt," Trump told reporters in the Manhattan courtroom hallway after a jury found him guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

"We didn't do a thing wrong. I'm a very innocent man," said Trump, who added that the "real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people."

Trump continued, "This is long from over."

Since Trump was indicted in the case more than a year ago, he has relentlessly slammed the prosecution as a political "witch hunt."

Nearly every day of the five-week trial, Trump publicly criticized the Manhattan district attorney office's case against him as well as the presiding judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.

Shortly before the hush-money jury began its deliberations on Wednesday, Trump, in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, railed, "KANGAROO COURT! A CORRUPT AND CONFLICTED JUDGE," and again insisted, "THERE WAS NO CRIME."

In another post on Wednesday, Trump blasted prosecutors' closing statements, saying, "THE D.A.'s OFFICE WAS ALLOWED TO GO ON WITH 5 HOURS OF BULL…. YESTERDAY. I have no rights against this Crooked Judge's Gag Order!"

Moments after jurors started weighing a verdict, Trump told reporters in the courtroom hallway that the case against him was so "rigged" that not even "Mother Teresa" could get acquitted.

"These charges are rigged. The whole thing is rigged. The whole country's a mess between the borders and the fake elections. And we have a trial like this where the judge is so conflicted he can't breathe," Trump said.

The former president added, "Mother Teresa could not beat those charges. But we'll see. We'll see how we do. It's a very disgraceful situation."

The verdict in the case follows the first-ever criminal trial of a former American president.

Jurors heard testimony from 20 prosecution witnesses, including Daniels and Trump's attorney-turned-nemesis Michael Cohen.

Prosecutors alleged that Trump falsified 34 business documents throughout 2017, including in his first week as president, when they say he reimbursed Cohen for paying Daniels the hush money.

Trump, according to prosecutors, orchestrated the payment to Daniels as part of an illegal conspiracy to influence the 2016 election.

The payment was meant to buy Daniels' silence over a sexual encounter the porn star says she had with Trump at a Lake Tahoe hotel suite in 2006 during a celebrity golf tournament, prosecutors said. Trump has denied having sex with Daniels.

• USS Leyte Gulf returned home after its last deployment, concluding nearly four decades of service.
• The guided-missile cruiser patrolled the South Atlantic to counter drug trafficking in the region.
• The ship is set to be decommissioned in 2027 as the Navy retires its aging Ticonderoga-class fleet.

USS Leyte Gulf completed its final deployment earlier this month, concluding nearly 40 decades of service.

The guided-missile cruiser returned to its homeport in Norfolk, Virginia, on May 17 after three-and-a-half months in the South Atlantic on security operations and counter drug trafficking in the region.

Photos of the Leyte Gulf's final deployment captured its port visits to Cuba and Brazil, its debut in the inaugural Fleet Week Miami, and the massive drug busts by the ship's crew.

Norfolk, Virginia

On January 28, the Leyte Gulf departed from Naval Station Norfolk to "maintain maritime security and interoperability" in the Caribbean and South America.

The ship was crewed by more than 40 officers and nearly 350 sailors who "continued to display a high level of proficiency and readiness" while the Leyte Gulf spent the fall of 2023 in the Western Atlantic preparing for its last deployment, according to the Navy.

"I admire the resiliency of the crew aboard Leyte Gulf," Vice Adm. Doug Perry, the commander of US 2nd Fleet, said in a statement. "Their commitment to the mission in the South Atlantic enhances maritime security through sustained naval presence."

One final deployment

The ship was named after the Battle of Leyte Gulf, the largest naval battle of World War II, in which the US Navy defeated the Japanese navy off the coast of Leyte Island in the Philippines.

Built by Ingalls Shipbuilding, the Ticonderoga-class cruiser was delivered and commissioned in 1987. Propelled by four gas turbine engines, the ship can reach speeds of up to 32 knots and has a displacement of about 9,600 tons.

The Leyte Gulf can carry more than 100 missiles for surface attacks, air defense, and anti-submarine warfare. It is also armed with deck guns, machine guns, and radar-guided air defense guns.

The 567-foot vessel can also accommodate two MH-60R Seahawk helicopters.

Guantánamo Bay, Cuba

On its way to the South Atlantic, the Leyte Gulf made a scheduled port visit to the US naval base in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, in mid-March.

Sea-and-anchor evolution

Photos showed the crew aboard USS Leyte Gulf conducting a sea-and-anchor evolution, navigating and maneuvering the ship safely into Naval Station Guantánamo Bay.

South Atlantic

One of the main objectives of the Leyte Gulf's deployment to the South Atlantic was to keep "illegal drugs from reaching the shores of the US and its regional partner nations," according to a statement from the Naval Surface Force Atlantic.

Patrolling the Caribbean

With assistance from Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 50, known as the "Valkyries," and the US Coast Guard Law Enforcement Detachment team, the cruiser intercepted three vessels in the Caribbean Sea less than a month after it deployed.

Nearly 1,720 kilograms of cocaine were seized in the three interdictions throughout February, worth a total of more than $42 million, according to a Navy statement.

On February 6, the Coast Guard boarding team and the Leyte Gulf's helicopter aircrew recovered 520 kilograms of cocaine. On February 15, they seized 600 kilograms of cocaine and another 600 kilograms of cocaine was recovered less than two weeks later.

"Our Leyte Gulf team was ready when called upon to execute all three interdictions," Capt. Nathan Diaz, the ship's commanding officer, said in a statement. "The successful seizure of more than $42 million in illicit drugs is a testament to the interoperability of our partner nations, the Coast Guard and the Leyte Gulf team."

A massive maritime drug bust

While patrolling in the Atlantic in late March, a Navy helicopter detected a 55-foot semi-submersible vessel likely smuggling narcotics about 132 miles off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, according to court documents. The Coast Guard commandeered the boat and detained four individuals aboard.

"Spotting this vessel was like finding a needle in the haystack," Lt. Cmdr. Travis Lee, Leyte Gulf's senior aviator, said in a statement. "I've been doing this for seven years and not once been able to find and acquire such an asset until now."

In its largest drug bust of the Leyte Gulf's deployment, Navy and Coast Guard crews seized about 2,370 kilograms of cocaine — more than 5,000 pounds — in about 100 brick-shaped packages aboard the drug-smuggling boat, which was later used as a target for live-fire training.

The four men — three Colombian nationals and one dual French-Columbian — were indicted on drug trafficking charges by a federal grand jury in Puerto Rico.

Testing its unmanned fleet

USS Leyte Gulf ran small boat operations in support of the US Fourth Fleet's ongoing campaign to integrate unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) into the US Navy's manned fleet.

Operation Windward Stack aims to achieve the US Navy's long-term vision of building a reliable hybrid fleet consisting of manned and unmanned vessels working together to conduct maritime operations.

Last September, California-based drone company Saildrone first deployed 10 unmanned robotic boats, known as "Voyagers," off the coast of Key West, Florida, to test and refine the unmanned systems.

It is difficult to spot drug-runners across the breadth of the Caribbean Ocean, especially when they are narco-subs whose bulk largely rides beneath the waves. More eyes, the thinking goes, will allow manned ships to detect more suspected drug runners and dispatch ships to intercept them.

The Navy plans to use ocean drones to improve maritime domain awareness "by detecting and quantifying targets that pass within range of the Saildrones' sensors," according to a press release.

The American Bureau of Shipping classifies the 33-foot Voyager as a light warship, which typically operates in riverine, coastal, or littoral environments.

Aside from the Voyager, Saildrone operates two other ocean drone variants called the Explorer and the Surveyor.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

While sailing through the South Atlantic, the Leyte Gulf made a scheduled port visit to Rio de Janeiro, where US and Brazilian sailors participated in joint training exercises.

Moored at Base Naval do Rio de Janeiro for a four-day liberty port visit, US sailors worked with the Brazilian navy to "increase interoperability between the two Marines, enhance the level of training and readiness of their ships, and contribute to strengthening cooperation ties between the participating countries," according to the Brazilian navy.

The @USNavy (🇺🇸) cruiser USS Leyte Gulf (CG-55) has arrived in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (🇧🇷) as part of its deployments with @Southcom.

Her hull is looking a bit rough with rust, but it’s likely due to the long deployment to South America pic.twitter.com/w539ZYgUzh

— SA Defensa (@SA_Defensa) April 11, 2024

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

The @USNavy (🇺🇸) cruiser USS Leyte Gulf (CG-55) conducted exercises with the @marmilbr (🇧🇷) frigate F União (F-45) off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. pic.twitter.com/Xw991yuCio

— SA Defensa (@SA_Defensa) April 24, 2024

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Crews from the Leyte Gulf and Brazilian frigate União conducted several operational exercises, such as "rapid response to the actual use of armaments; interrogation and approach with the ships' Visit and Inspection Groups; and flag communication," according to the Brazilian navy.

The AH-11B Super Lynx, a Brazilian multi-role military helicopter, also ran landing drills aboard the Leyte Gulf.

Miami, Florida

The Leyte Gulf returned stateside to make a debut at the inaugural Fleet Week Miami, which previously took place in Fort Lauderdale for over three decades.

For a week in early May, the vessel docked at Port Miami alongside the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Bataan, and fellow Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Normandy. The Coast Guard's medium endurance cutter, USCGC Seneca, also made an appearance.

A display of US naval power

More than 7,000 sailors and Marines participated in the Fleet Week festivities.

"We've come through, flooding the zone, so that we can engage with the folks of Miami and let them understand what it's like to be part of the sea services," Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle, commander of the US Fleet Forces Command, said in public remarks.

Norfolk, Virginia

After three and a half months at sea, the Leyte Gulf returned to a warm yet bittersweet homecoming at Naval Station Norfolk on May 17.

"I admire the resiliency of the crew aboard Leyte Gulf," Vice Adm. Doug Perry, commander of the US 2nd Fleet, said in a statement. "Their commitment to the mission in the South Atlantic enhances maritime security through sustained naval presence."

'A model for maritime teamwork'

Perry commended sailors aboard the Leyte Gulf for completing the vessel's final deployment, calling the crew "a model for maritime teamwork" after conducting multiple drug interdictions alongside the Valkyries helicopter squadron and the Coast Guard.

"This is a profound final chapter for one of the Navy's finest ships, and their crew should be proud of all they accomplished," Perry said.

Diaz, the commanding officer of Leyte Gulf, echoed the sentiment, recalling the "generations of sailors who have manned the helm" of the storied warship.

"This ship is full of history. Each period brings its own far-off journeys, along with generations of Sailors who have manned the helm," Diaz said in a statement. "Our last deployment was full of Sailors who made their own mark on the story of this great warship."

"Though our namesake comes from a battle long ago, the US is still performing with a level of combat expertise and professionalism that we've always had as we protect the homeland," he added.

Yorktown, Virginia

The Leyte Gulf briefly moored at Naval Weapons Station Yorktown for two days to offload ammo before returning home on May 22.

Modernizing its cruiser fleet

The Leyte Gulf is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2027 as the Navy retires its aging and costly Ticonderoga-class cruiser fleet.

The Navy proposed retiring its aging and costly ships, like the Leyte Gulf, to grow its unmanned fleet and build more modern ships. The proposal drew some early opposition after Congress blocked attempts to retire ships ahead of schedule.

The Navy faces yearslong delays on some of its highly anticipated shipbuilding projects due to supply chain issues and labor shortages.

Lawmakers argued the aging yet operational ships should be kept in active service to prevent a capability gap in coming years, as adversaries like China and Russia grow their own naval fleets, threatening the US' global undersea dominance.

China has already outpaced American shipbuilding, and the US Department of Defense said the country now has the largest navy in the world —comprised of nearly 400 vessels and counting.

• Finland and Sweden bring a fighter force roughly the size of the UK's to the NATO alliance.
• Finland flies F/A-18 Hornets and has order a large number of F-35 stealth fighters.
• Their forces and bases would complicate any Russian effort to conquer the Baltic states in NATO.

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine has had an unintended consequence: a boost to NATO airpower.

Fearful of being Russia's next target, Finland joined NATO in 2023, followed by Sweden this March. This means the alliance will be augmented by their advanced aircraft and strategically located airbases.

"Finland and Sweden increase NATO's high-end airpower capacity," wrote RAND. Corp researchers Paul Cormarie and John Hoehn in a recent essay for the Modern War Institute at West Point.

In terms of numbers of aircraft, the new Nordic members would bring a considerable addition to NATO airpower in a conflict with Russia. Sweden currently has about a hundred Gripen jet fighters, while Finland has 62 American-made F/A-18 Hornets. That makes the combined Finnish/Swedish fighter contingent roughly equal to the combat jets of the UK's Royal Air Force and about is only one-third less than the roughly 200 fighter jets apiece flown by France and Germany.

The new allies bring numerous other advantages to European defense. When former Warsaw Pact states such as Poland joined NATO in the late 1990s, they were equipped with older Soviet jets, such as the MiG-29, that were of limited utility and interoperability to Western air forces. However, Sweden's JAS-39 Gripen is a capable fourth-generation fighter — roughly on a par with models like the F-16 — that fits comfortably with NATO technical standards and doctrine. The rugged Gripen is designed to take off and land from highways if airfields are knocked out and "has modern electric warfare capabilities and high readiness that can perform expeditionary operations — limiting Russia's ability to target aircraft on the ground," the essay said.

Finland's F/A-18 Hornets — which used to be the US Navy's standard fighter — are already compatible with NATO air forces. But Finland will soon field an extraordinarily potent air force for a nation of less than 6 million people. It has ordered 64 American-made F-35 stealth fighters, the second-largest F-35 acquisition in Europe, after Britain's. This puts several squadrons of stealth fighters on Russia's northern border, with the potential to penetrate and suppress Russian air defenses, and hit vital targets.

Sweden and Finland also help NATO simply by the existing. They border Russia and are close to the Baltic States, the small countries likely under the greatest Russian threat. Sweden is also on the Baltic Sea, while Norway borders the Barents, Norwegian and North Seas.

"Geography matters," Cormarie and Hoehn wrote. "Both Finland's and Sweden's proximity allows NATO air forces to stage closer to the Baltics. This reduces logistical constraints and better enables the alliance to sustain air operations, while also increasing aircraft persistence."

Sweden also possesses a defense-industrial base that can build sophisticated jets. With American and European defense firms struggling to meet surging demand, Sweden's additional manufacturing capacity is a significant boost to NATO's ability to replace losses. "Few other NATO nations have active production lines capable of producing modern fighter aircraft," the essay said.

"Of course, this industrial infrastructure is potentially vulnerable to Russian attack in the event of a conflict. But from a Russian perspective, that poses an enhanced dilemma, as commanders must select from a wider range of targets in any initial salvo."

Cormarie and Hoehn contrast NATO's situation today with a 2016 RAND wargame — before Sweden and Finland joined the alliance — that concluded Russia could conquer the Baltic States in less than three days. There are questions about whether the game overestimated the Russian military in light of its poor performance in Ukraine. But the simulation did illustrate the difficulty that NATO would face in assembling enough troops and aircraft to defeat an invasion of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are NATO members.

Sweden and Finland's NATO status complicates a Russian effort to conquer the Balitcs. "Finland's accession imposes a dilemma on Russian military planners, forcing them to consider balancing offensive plans in, say, Estonia while considering defensive operations to protect their own borders," Cormarie and Hoehn wrote. Similarly, Sweden's Gotland island — located almost midway in the Baltic, about 60 miles from the Swedish mainland and 80 miles from the Baltic States — provides NATO with an advanced outpost.

Interestingly, Cormarie and Hoehn see the benefits of Swedish and Finnish airpower as helping to alleviate the strain on U.S. resources now split between the European and Pacific theaters. "The United States would not have to flow its own airpower capabilities — many of which are based back in the United States — into theater as quickly and enables it to deter aggression elsewhere in the world."

"Less ambiguity in the Baltic region allows US air forces to commit some capability to deter adversaries from aggression in other theaters—like an opportunistic invasion of Taiwan," the essay said.

The new northern European members also allow NATO to project more power into the Arctic, a region that has become increasingly coveted as melting polar icecaps uncover mineral riches and new shipping routes. "This might be an opportunity for NATO to be looking more into the Arctic," Cormarie told Business Insider. "Both Sweden and Finland have forces capable of sustaining the very harsh conditions and maintainers adapted to the weather. Their air forces are vital for this Nordic push, and will become very useful to further deter and defend the increasingly contested arctic space with Russia."

Ultimately, Swedish and Finnish airpower give NATO a lot more flexibility to handle a variety of looming scenarios, from a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, to Western intervention in the Ukraine war, to NATO's biggest member — the United States — confronting China over Taiwan.

"In what matters the most in a coalition fighting a contingency, Finland plus Sweden bring together a lot of fighting capability," Cormarie said.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.