Predicting what any share market – whether that be the S&P 500 Index  (INDEXSP: .INX) or the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) – will do even tomorrow is a big ask. But predicting what the markets might do in a month or year’s time is a devilish task indeed.

But that hasn’t stopped a few ASX experts from giving it a crack.

Investors all around the world are probably fairly content bunch as we close out the month of March 2024. Both the American and Australian stock markets have been rising steadily over the year to date. As it stands today, the ASX 200 has gained a decent 2.3% this year, hitting a new all-time high in the process.

The S&P 500 has done even better. Not only has the flagship index of the United States markets hit new all-time records of its own, but it’s climbed a happy 9.7% over the year so far. Not bad for three months; work.

And one expert reckons the S&P 500 might climb even higher. According to a report in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, analysts at investment bank HSBC have just lifted their S&P 500 forecasts.

HSBC now reckons the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 points by the end of 2024. If this does come to pass, it would see the index gain another 3.8% or so from where it is today, and hit even loftier record highs.

What’s next for the S&P 500 Index?

This target is based on an expectation of higher company earnings, resilient GDP growth and positive sentiment. However, it also assumes that US interest rates will start coming down this year. Here’s some of what the HSBC analysts said in a note:

Our target is predicated on the [Federal Reserve] cutting rates in June with 75 basis points of total cuts in 2024, in line with consensus and Fed expectations based on the recent dot plot…

We expect a more volatile second half of 2024 on US elections, elevated earnings expectations, and a shifting narrative from ‘when’ to ‘how much’ the Fed will cut.

That is HSBC’s base case scenario. However, the bank also had a ‘bull case’, which would see the S&P 500 limb to 5,700 points. For this to happen, the bank reckons we would need to see “above-trend GDP growth but with inflation remaining subdued”.

In addition, HSBC does warn that if the US economy runs “too hot” this year, it could result in higher inflation and no rate cuts. Under this bear case, HSBC sees the S&P 500 finishing 2024 at just 4,800 points.

The divergence of these three scenarios just goes to show how difficult it is to predict what might happen with a broad-market index like the S&P 500. But whatever this index does over the rest of 2024 will almost certainly have implications for our own ASX.

The post Expert: This is where the S&P 500 is going next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why ASX 200 investors are celebrating today’s Aussie inflation print
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended HSBC Holdings. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models again, leading to the release of a number of broker notes this week.

Three ASX shares brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why they are bullish on them:

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $24.15 price target on this travel agent’s shares. It highlights that there has been some industry consolidation in the United States with AMEX GBT acquiring business travel solutions provider CWT for US$570 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis. The broker feels this is a positive for Flight Centre as it reduces the number of competitors in the market. In addition, it sees potential for some forced divestments to get the deal over the line. This could provide Flight Centre with an opportunity to add to its portfolio. The Flight Centre share price is trading at $21.45 today.

Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND)

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have initiated coverage on this engineering company’s shares with a buy rating and $15.40 price target. The broker believes that Monadelphous’ short-and-medium-term outlooks are supported by a growing pipeline of committed developments across the energy, lithium and rare earths sectors. In addition, it sees opportunities for the company to benefit from a growing renewable energy investment pipeline. The Monadelphous share price is fetching $13.98 this afternoon.

Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have retained their overweight rating on this retail giant’s shares with an improved price target of $38.00. This follows the release of a half-year result which revealed earnings comfortably ahead of guidance. The broker was also pleased to see the company planning to divest its Smiggle and Peter Alexander businesses in 2025. Overall, Morgan Stanley continues to see Premier Investments as its top pick in the industry. The Premier Investments share price is trading at $30.87 on Wednesday.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why 29Metals, Brainchip, Platinum, and Premier Investments shares are falling today
• Guess which ASX 200 share offers 12% upside and a 4% dividend yield
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• These 5 ASX 200 shares just hit new 52-week highs

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group and Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fought back from a soft start and is pushing higher. The benchmark index is up 0.25% to 7,799.9 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are outperforming:

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

The Mesoblast share price is up 9% to 52.5 cents. This biotech company’s shares have been on fire this week after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave it a big boost. The FDA advised that there appears to be sufficient results to support the submission of the company’s proposed Biologics License Application (BLA) for its remestemcel-L medicine to treat paediatric patients with steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease.

Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (ASX: PMT)

The Patriot Battery Metals share price is up 2% to 90 cents. This may be a delayed reaction to an announcement this week which revealed the discovery of a new spodumene pegmatite occurrence at the Corvette project in Canada. The company advised: “The discovery highlights the extensive nature of the spodumene mineralized system along the CV Lithium Trend, which extends across the Property where a large portion remains unexplored for lithium pegmatite.”

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

The Sigma Healthcare share price is up 5% to $1.31. This is despite there being no news out of the pharmacy chain operator and distributor. Though, it is worth noting that its shares have been performing very strongly since its results release. In addition, investors appear very excited over its potential merger with Chemist Warehouse.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

The Zip share price is up 3% to $1.52. Once again, this is despite there being no news out of the buy now pay later provider. At one stage today, Zip’s shares climbed to a new 52-week high of $1.59. When its shares reached that level, it meant that they were up over 180% since this time last year. Investors have been impressed with its growth in the United States and success with its profitability targets.

The post Why Mesoblast, Patriot Battery Metals, Sigma, and Zip shares are pushing higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Mesoblast share price rockets 36% on breaking FDA news
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is back on form on Wednesday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.3% to 7,804.5 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

The 29Metals share price is down a further 9.5% to 36.2 cents. Investors have been hitting the sell button this week after the copper miner announced the suspension of operations at Capricorn Copper. This follows an extended period of rainfall between late January and mid-March, which resulted in a steady accumulation of water in regulated structures on site. These levels are similar to those following the March 2023 extreme weather event that hit the company very hard.

Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN)

The Brainchip share price is down 3% to 32 cents. This has been driven by news that the semiconductor company is raising more funds through its put option agreement with LDA Capital. This appears to be an indication that the company doesn’t expect to generate any meaningful revenue in the near future.

Platinum Asset Management Ltd (ASX: PTM)

The Platinum share price is down 21% to $1.03. Investors have been selling this fund manager’s shares after it announced a large fund outflow. Platinum expects to receive partial redemptions of at least $1.4 billion from its institutional and wholesale business over the coming month. It also warned that one large client is indicating that it intends to rebalance its exposure away from benchmark agnostic global equity managers.

Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)

The Premier Investments share price is down 3% to $31.03. This morning, analysts at Goldman Sachs responded to the retail giant’s half-year results by retaining their sell rating with an improved price target of $25.10. Commenting on plans to divest Smiggle and Peter Alexander, the broker said: ” Scenario analysis of Smiggle/PA global opportunities suggests A$22.7-A$31.9/sh valuation rage vs our TP of A$25.1/sh.”

The post Why 29Metals, Brainchip, Platinum, and Premier Investments shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you own Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares you’ve got two things to celebrate as I pen this.

First, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fast food pizza retailer are in the green during the Wednesday lunch hour. Shares are up 0.1%, trading for $42.83 apiece.

Second, today is the day the company pays its interim dividend.

Domino’s shares traded ex-dividend on 26 February. Meaning you’ll have had to own the stock at market close on Friday, 23 February to bank today’s passive income payout.

Domino’s shares are paying out today

Domino’s reported its half-year results on 21 February.

On the plus side of the ledger, the company reported same-store sales growth of 1.3% over the six months. And network sales increased 8.8% year on year to $2.14 billion.

However, with net profit after tax declining by 13% to $62 million, management reduced the interim dividend by 18.4% from the prior year, declaring an unfranked interim dividend of 55.5 cents per share.

Commenting on the company’s performance on the day, Domino’s CEO Don Meij said, “Today’s results show we are rebuilding, and the sales initiatives we have applied in Australia/New Zealand are getting traction in some of our international markets.”

ASX 200 investors appeared pleased with the company’s growth outlook and strong start to the new half. Domino’s shares closed up 2.3% on the day.

As for that passive income, management said the interim dividend will be subject to Domino’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP). And it will be fully underwritten.

Atop the interim dividend, Domino’s also paid out a final dividend of 42.6 cents per share on 28 September.

That brings the full-year dividend payout to 98.1 cents per share.

At the current share price, this sees Domino’s trading on an unfranked trailing yield of 2.3%.

The post Own Domino’s shares? Today is pay day! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The rising cost of living is taking its pound of flesh from the hip pockets of Aussies. Inflation is a pernicious beast. This is especially true if those hard-earned dollars are left in cash. I’d fight the costly scourge by finding quality ASX shares to buy instead.

Today’s monthly inflation print shows rising costs have stripped 3.4% of our purchasing power when annualised. The number was below expectations of 3.5%. However, it is still above the 2% to 3% target band set by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Fortunately, my top income-focused investments all pay a dividend yield greater than this, leaving capital appreciating as the cream on top.

ASX shares I’d buy to generate income

An attractive trait of ASX dividend shares is their ability to provide money without selling the investment. A portion of company profits gets paid out while the invested capital keeps chugging along untouched — providing for the present and (hopefully) the future.

It’s an appealing proposition. However, it’s important to prioritise the company’s quality, not just those (at times) sugary dividends. High yields can be sweet… but sometimes they can lack substance.

That’s why I’d select the following three companies as quality, dividend-paying ASX shares to buy.

Sticky income source: Raise your hand if you’ve moved house, thrown some things into a storage unit, and long forgotten about it. Like a gym membership, the hassle of sorting out the matter can feel more costly than the ongoing fee — leading to months, sometimes years, of payments through sheer laziness.

Indeed, storage can be a beautiful business — simple and often predictable. That’s why I’d choose National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR), one of the largest self-storage providers in Australia and New Zealand, for added income.

Currently, the company offers a dividend yield of 4.6%, outpacing inflation by 1.2%. A $10,000 investment in National Storage a year ago would have paid $460 in 12 months.

Low-cost business: The next ASX share to buy on my list for income is a low-cost business. As I see it, the less money spent on operations, the more dividends can be paid to shareholders. Hence, resource royalty company Deterra Royalties Ltd (ASX: DRR) is a hard one to skip, in my opinion.

Collecting royalties paid on BHP’s Mining Area C iron ore mine, Deterra raked in $251.8 million in revenue over the last year. Nearly 67% of that revenue translated to net profits after tax (NPAT), with 100% of those earnings paid out in dividends.

Today, Deterra’s dividend yield is 6.3%, surpassing inflation by 2.9%. A $10,000 investment in Deterra Royalties a year ago would have amounted to $630 in 12 months.

Inflation-protected revenue: What about an ASX share to buy that can raise its revenue alongside inflation?

A decent dividend yield now is good, but if the company cannot increase the price of its products or services with inflation, those dividends could soon dwindle. That’s why NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) makes my top three.

Health insurance prices are going up across all providers. Many Australians who pay for health insurance consider it a necessity, cutting back elsewhere if needed to maintain coverage. This helps NIB to grow profits and dividends in line with (or above) inflation.

The dividend yield on NIB shares is 3.9%, a smaller 0.5% above the current inflation rate. A $10,000 investment in NIB a year ago would have paid out $390 worth of income.

The post 3 top income-focused ASX shares to buy before April appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy these ASX dividend stocks for an income boost
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• Selling your investment property due to land tax hikes? 5 ASX shares I’d buy with the proceeds

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended NIB Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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After opening in the red, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finally struggled into the green by late morning today.

At 11:30am AEST on Wednesday, the benchmark Aussie index was up a fraction of a percent at 7,783.8 points.

That’s when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published the latest Australian inflation data, covering the month of February.

And the ASX 200 marched to 7,809.0 points in the minutes that followed, up 0.4%.

Here’s what’s happening on Australia’s inflation front.

ASX 200 lifts on ABS inflation data

Forecasts were mixed on what to expect from today’s inflation print, with consensus estimates coming in at a 3.5% annual rate.

But as we can see by the boosted sentiment on the ASX 200, those consensus expectations proved a little on the high side.

According to the latest data from the ABS, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator increased 3.4% in the 12 months to February.

That’s close to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2% to 3% target range. A range ASX 200 investors are keeping a close eye on amid hopes for interest rate cuts in 2024.

However, while inflation has come off the boil, it is proving sticky at these still elevated levels.

“Annual inflation was unchanged in February and has been 3.4% for three consecutive months,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics.

The biggest factors driving ongoing price pressures in February were housing, up 4.6%; food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.6%; alcohol and tobacco, up 6.1%; and insurance and financial services, up 8.4%.

Renters are doing it particularly tough, with rents up by 7.6% for the year, an increase from 7.4% in January.

As for underlying inflation – which excludes things like petrol, holiday travel, and fruit and vegetables from CPI headline inflation – the 12-month increase to February was 3.9%, down from 4.1% in January.

“Annual inflation excluding volatile items has continued to slow over the last 14 months from a high of 7.2% in December 2022,” Marquardt said.

And despite the hordes of big-spending Swifties, holiday travel and accommodation prices fell 1.3% in the 12 months to February.

“Although Taylor Swift performances saw hotel prices rise in Sydney and Melbourne, elsewhere accommodation and airfare prices fell in February due to the end of the peak travel during the January school holiday period.” Marquardt said.

Having set several new all-time highs this year despite high interest rates and sticky inflation, the ASX 200 is up 11% over the past six months.

The post Why ASX 200 investors are celebrating today’s Aussie inflation print appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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It can be a good idea for investors to keep an eye on which shares have experienced meaningful insider buying.

This is because insider buying is often regarded as a bullish signal, as few people know a company and its intrinsic value better than its own directors.

So, if they are buying shares on-market, it suggests that they are confident in the direction the company is heading and feel its shares are good value.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at an ASX 200 dividend stock that insiders have been buying up big this month.

Which ASX 200 dividend stock are insiders buying?

The stock in question is coal miner New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC).

According to a change of director’s interests notice, the company’s chair, Robert Millner AO, and non-executive director, Tom Millner, have topped up their collective holding.

The notice reveals that 100,000 shares were bought through an on-market trade on 22 March.

The Millners paid an average of $4.6924 per share, which equates to a total consideration of $469,240.

This boosted Tom Millner’s holding to 21,153 direct shares and 5,853,215 indirect shares, and Robert Millner’s holding to 279,559 direct shares and 5,943,215 million indirect shares.

What dividends would those 100,000 shares generate?

As one of the more generous dividend payers on the Australian share market, the shares that these insiders have bought are likely to provide them with some bumper dividends.

For example, according to a note out of Morgans from last week, its analysts are forecasting dividends per share of 35 cents in FY 2024 and 34 cents in FY 2025.

So, with the ASX 200 dividend stock currently trading at $4.36, this means 8% and 7.8% dividend yields, respectively.

It also means that those 100,000 shares would yield $35,000 and $34,000 in dividend payments over the next couple of years if Morgans is accurate with its estimates.

The post The 8% yield ASX 200 dividend stock insiders are buying up big appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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As we covered just this morning, it’s a big week on the ASX for almost every dividend investor. And that includes owners of Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares.

This week will see dividends from the likes of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) doled out to grateful shareholders. But quite possibly the largest shareholder payment will flow to the owners of Ampol shares.

Last month, Ampol delivered its latest half-year results for the six months ending 31 December. Investors were cheering Ampol’s record fuel sales, to be sure. But it was what the company announced in the dividend department that really got chins a-wagging.

Ampol announced a record final dividend of $1.20 a share, fully franked. But it didn’t end there. The company also revealed a special dividend payment on top of that (also fully franked), worth an additional 60 cents per share.

That takes Ampol’s payout to a whopping $1.80 per share, which is easily the highest payout shareholders have ever enjoyed from the fuel refiner, distributor and retailer.

It certainly beats out last year’s final and special dividends, which were worth a combined $1.55 per share. The interim dividend investors received in September last year was worth just 95 cents per share, fully franked.

Unfortunately for anyone just cottoning on to this news, eligibility for new investors for this dividend has now closed. As we warned last month, the ex-dividend date for these payouts came and went on 1 March.

But for eligible shareholders, dividend payday is today. So expect to see that chunky payout arrive in your bank accounts imminently.

Someone with $10,000 worth of Ampol shares today (around 254 shares) can expect to receive approximately $457 in dividend income when this shareholder payment gets cleared.

Ampol shares snapshot

Ampol shares have been excellent performers in recent months. The company may be down 0.88% so far this Wednesday to $39.41 a share. But year to date in 2024, the Ampol share price remains up a healthy 7.6%. That share price gain stretches to 32% over the past 12 months and to 50.4% over the last five years.

At the current Ampol share price, this ASX 200 energy stock has a market capitalisation of $9.4 billion, with a trailing dividend yield of 6.97% (including special dividends).

The post Own Ampol shares? Get ready for your monster dividend payment appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Telstra Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF) share price is down more than 1% after the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) share went ex-distribution.

This comes at a time when the ASX 300 is currently up 0.1%.

Ex-distribution date

Rural Funds pays a distribution every three months and the latest payment will soon be allocated to investors.

The ex-distribution date tells us when new investors miss out on the payment – there has to be a cut-off point for the upcoming payment.

For Rural Funds, today (27 March 2024) is the ex-distribution date. Anyone buying Rural Funds shares won’t receive the upcoming distribution of 2.93 cents per unit. So, investors aren’t getting as much short-term value today as yesterday.

At yesterday’s Rural Funds share price, the upcoming quarterly payment translates into a distribution yield of 1.4%.

When is the Rural Funds distribution being paid?

Rural Funds is planning to pay this quarterly distribution on 30 April 2024.

If investors want to receive more Rural Funds units rather than cash, they can take part in the distribution reinvestment plan (DRP). The DRP election date is Tuesday 2 April 2024, with 5 pm being the cut-off time.

What is the FY24 distribution yield?

In the recent FY24 first-half result, Rural Funds confirmed it’s planning to pay an annual distribution of 11.73 cents per unit, which is a current distribution yield of 5.7%.

This is mostly being paid for by an expected adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) – which is essentially net rental profit – of 11.2 cents per unit.

The business is investing in some farms, and converting a few to macadamia farms, which will hopefully lead to improved rental income.

Rural Funds share price snapshot

Despite everything that has happened over the past 12 months, the Rural Funds share price is virtually where it was a year ago.

The post Why is the Rural Funds share dropping today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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