• Stagflation and gold: Could it be an ideal match for ASX 200 gold miners?

    A gold bear and bull face off on a share market chartA gold bear and bull face off on a share market chart

    The gold price has wobbled lately having danced around the US$1,800/ounce mark since 9 May. At the time of writing, the yellow metal is priced at US$1,837 per troy ounce.

    Meanwhile, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), inflation in Australia was 5.1% in the March quarter, “which is the highest rate in many years”.

    Among economist circles, there’s been chatter of a potential threat to growth called stagflation.

    This is where we have stagnating economic growth/GDP mixed in with rising inflation. Normally, it’s one or the other. So a blend of the two is a threat to productivity and buying power.

    Is Australia at risk?

    Australia’s economy appears to be within an inflationary cycle, according to the RBA:

    When the RBA published its latest set of forecasts in early May, we expected that inflation would peak at around 6% at the end of this year.

    The information available since then has led us to push this forecast peak higher. Since early May, petrol prices have risen further due to global developments and the outlooks for retail electricity and gas prices have been revised higher due to pressures on capacity in that sector.

    As a result, we are now expecting inflation to peak at around 7% in the December quarter.

    Despite the outlook, economic growth forecasts appear robust and in line with longer-term averages.

    The RBA also says GDP is forecast to grow by 4.5% over 2022, and by 2% in 2023. RBA data shows this is roughly the average level of growth seen per year from 2014–2018.

    What does this mean for ASX 200 gold miners?

    The price of gold has held steady in 2022 while equity markets try to regain footing after their sudden fall.

    If stagflation were to creep in as an economic issue, historical data shows this could be bullish for gold.

    “Of the four business cycle phases since 1973, stagflation is the one that is most supportive for gold and conversely the worst for risk assets,” World Gold Council analysts Johan Palmberg and Krishan Gopaul wrote in March.

    Goldman Sachs head of Commodities research, Jeffery Currie also said the “perfect storm” of demand and geopolitical uncertainty could push gold to US$2,500/ounce.

    Speaking to Livewire Markets, Perth Mint’s Jordan Eliseo said: “The outlook remains healthy, with several factors suggesting that rather than repeat the post-2011 experience, the bull market in gold will continue.”

    He said that gold looks to be in a “far healthier” position than it was in its last bull run in 2011, and that it remains underbought compared to then as well.

    “[T]he yield environment, valuations in financial markets, and inflationary dynamics are all more supportive for the precious metal today,” he added.

    “Combined, these factors suggest gold’s bull market run could well continue.”

    Should the gold price rally once more it would certainly be good news for ASX 200 miners such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM).

    The shares are each down 17%, 16% and 5% this year to date respectively, whilst the energy portion of the ASX 200 commodity basket has soared into the green.

    TradingView Chart

    The post Stagflation and gold: Could it be an ideal match for ASX 200 gold miners? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • The Lake Resources share price has crashed 50% since joining the ASX 200 on Monday. What’s going on?

    A man holds his head and look in horror at a betting slip, indicating share price drop on the ASX market

    A man holds his head and look in horror at a betting slip, indicating share price drop on the ASX marketThis week was supposed to be a celebratory one for the Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price.

    On Monday, the lithium developer’s shares joined the crème de la crème when they were added to the illustrious ASX 200 index.

    However, what should have been a dream week for shareholders has quickly turned into a nightmare.

    With another 20% tumble to 67.5 cents on Thursday, the Lake Resources share price is now down a disastrous 56% this week.

    What’s going on with the Lake Resources share price?

    There have been a number of catalysts for the weakness in the Lake Resources share price this week.

    The first and arguably the biggest catalyst for the selling has been the shock exit of its CEO, Steve Promnitz.

    The departure of Promnitz was barely even touched on within the release, with the announcement focusing more on the appointment of chairman Stu Crow as its executive chairman.

    Another ominous detail was the lack of any outgoing comments from Promnitz following his exit. Combined with the apparent sale of all of the former CEO’s 10.2 million shares the very next day, it doesn’t point to a happy exit.

    What else?

    Also weighing on the Lake Resources share price have been concerns over future lithium demand.

    This has been driven by news that Germany is looking to backtrack from plans to ban petrol and diesel engine cars in 2035.

    If this happens, then long-term electric vehicle numbers could fall short of forecasts, which would inevitably have an impact on demand for lithium.

    Finally, another thing that may not have gone down well with the market is the company spruiking a research note from Red Cloud Securities on Twitter, saying “Buy opportunity on sudden stock dip post-CEO departure.”

    While the company has done nothing wrong, it isn’t a good look, and it is worth highlighting that last year Red Cloud Securities was issued 1.5 million Lake options that are exercisable at 30 cents before 24 May 2023. It is also paying Red Cloud $10,000 per month in marketing fees.

    So, this research report should be read with that firmly in mind.

    The post The Lake Resources share price has crashed 50% since joining the ASX 200 on Monday. What’s going on? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Sayona share price dives 8% despite lithium news

    A couple sits on a sofa, each clutching their heads in horror and disbelief, while looking at a laptop screen showing the Nickel Industries share price has dropped by 36% since early MarchA couple sits on a sofa, each clutching their heads in horror and disbelief, while looking at a laptop screen showing the Nickel Industries share price has dropped by 36% since early March

    The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price is tumbling on Thursday despite seemingly good news about one of the company’s Western Australian lithium projects.

    Exploration activities at the Mt Edon project have identified potential subsurface lithium targets.

    At the time of writing, the Sayona share price is 12 cents, 7.69% lower than its previous close.

    In comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 0.03%.

    Let’s take a closer look at what’s going on with this All Ords lithium share today.

    Sayona share price stumbles despite lithium find

    The Sayona share price is suffering amid a broader sell-off of ASX lithium shares today. That’s despite seemingly good news from its Mt Edon project.

    Exploration at the project, conducted by Morella Corporation Ltd (ASX: 1MC), has mapped 53 pegmatite outcrops within two targets.

    A total of 32 samples were taken from the pegmatites, with resulting assays finding the area has the potential for subsurface lithium mineralisation.

    While many pegmatites appear narrow and discontinuous, others show apparent thickness and continuity that may evolve into a commercially viable mining opportunity, Morella said.

    The two-target project is majority-owned by Sayona. The companies entered into an earn-out agreement last year allowing Morella to earn a 51% stake in the project’s lithium rights. It can do so by spending $1.5 million on exploration at the site over three years.

    However, today’s news hasn’t been enough to save the Sayona share price from the broader sell-off among ASX lithium shares.

    Other lithium stocks such as Liontown Resources Limited (ASX: LTR), Lake Resources NL (ASX: LKE), and Argosy Minerals Limited (ASX: AGY) are also falling. They are currently down 7.73%, 15.48%, and 3.51% respectively.

    Today’s tumble also follows from the 7% fall the Sayona share price experienced yesterday. This came after the company released its investor presentation which highlighted its strategic direction.

    The stock is now nearly 14% lower than it was at the start of 2022. Though, it has gained 100% since this time last year.

    The post Sayona share price dives 8% despite lithium news appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

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    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Block shares are back on the buy list for this big-name investor

    A corporate female wearing glasses looks intently at a virtual reality screen with shapes and lights representing Block shares going up todayA corporate female wearing glasses looks intently at a virtual reality screen with shapes and lights representing Block shares going up today

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is back in green territory so far today, with the ASX 200 presently up a robust 0.35%.

    But the Block Inc (ASX: SQ2) share price is doing even better. Block shares are currently enjoying a healthy 4.14% bump to $88.29 each so far this Thursday.

    This move must come with much relief for Block investors, who have had to watch the company slide a depressing 30% over the past month (even after the 8%-plus gains of the past week).

    But Block (formerly known as Square) is still down by around half its value over 2022 thus far. So it’s certainly been a trying time for the company’s shareholders. Many of whom would still hold Block shares after the company took over the buy now, pay later (BNPL) pioneer Afterpay earlier this year.

    Although Block is listed on the ASX, it is actually a US-based company, whose primary listing is Block Inc (NYSE: SQ) on the New York Stock Exchange.

    SQ and SQ2 shares are essentially congruent in value though (factoring in exchange rates), so the company’s US stock has had a similar journey to Block’s ASX shares over this year.

    Block shares have got a brand new buyer

    We’ve recently got some news that a large buyer is swooping on Block following its steep falls over 2022.

    As covered by our Fool colleagues over in the US, we’ve just found out that ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has bought another US$5 million of Block shares.

    Cathie Wood runs one of the most popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the US markets – the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE: ARKK).

    This ARKK ETF has a reputation as the preeminent growth-based ETF on the US markets. It typically invests in companies like Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) and Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ: ZM). 

    ARKK has taken a fairly big hit over 2022, but ARKK was a top performer over 2020 and 2021.

    According to our colleagues across the Pacific, ARK bought nearly 355,000 Block shares over May. It stopped buying when the company topped US$80 a share. But ARK has resumed buying this week, with another 82,000 shares (US$5 million worth) acquired on Tuesday alone.

    Block’s US stock has been trading around US$60 for most of this week. So clearly Cathie Wood is seeing some value in the Block share price right now.

    But only time will tell if Block’s current price proves to be a low point for the company going forward.

    At the current Block share price, this US tech company has a market capitalisation of US$35.21 billion.

    The post Block shares are back on the buy list for this big-name investor appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Block Inc. right now?

    Before you consider Block Inc., you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Block Inc. wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Block, Inc., Tesla, and Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Block, Inc., Shopify, Tesla, and Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2023 $1,140 calls on Shopify and short January 2023 $1,160 calls on Shopify. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Block, Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why has the Mesoblast share price crashed 40% since April?

    Red arrow going down and symbolising a falling share price.Red arrow going down and symbolising a falling share price.

    The Mesoblast Limited (ASX: MSB) share price has started the day well and is now trading around 4% higher at 68.5 cents apiece.

    Despite the gain today, Mesoblast shares have struggled since April. They are down around 40% since that time, in continuation of a longer-term downtrend.

    Mesoblast is also down 51% this year to date, amid a heavy sell-off in ASX tech shares. In the last 2 weeks, a plunge in the broader market has pulled the share lower.

    What’s up with the Mesoblast share price?

    Investors have been selling the Mesoblast share price down on no news. The company did release its financial and operational highlights for the last quarter on 1 June, however, the market was unfazed.

    In fact, shares have been trending south for over 1 year now, having fallen hard from a sharp peak of $4.60 in December 2020.

    Since then, shares have rolled lower and now trade at both 2-year and 52-week lows.

    With the trend in place, there’s been no support from the market, not in 2022 anyway. The S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XJO) is also at yearly lows having sunk 38% this year to date.

    Furthermore, Mesoblast has seen proceedings started against it in a Federal Court of Australia back in May.

    According to TMF at the time, the claimant – someone who bought shares between 2018-2020 – alleges Mesoblast “engaged in unlawful conduct that misled the market about remestemcel-L”.

    “Mesoblast has reportedly faced multiple class actions in the US on similar allegations,” TMF added.

    Nevertheless, the Mesoblast share price has tumbled more than 69% into the red over the last 12 months, as seen below.

    TradingView Chart

    The post Why has the Mesoblast share price crashed 40% since April? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is the Fortescue share price sinking 4% on Thursday?

    share price plummeting down

    share price plummeting down

    The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is sliding today, down 3.8% to $17 per share.

    And it’s not just Fortescue shares under pressure.

    The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is down 2.7% and rival S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining share Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) has dropped 2.9% today.

    So, what’s going on?

    All eyes on China

    Iron ore prices have slipped again, down 5.6% overnight to US$109 a tonne.

    Iron ore topped US$144 earlier this month as investors digested news that China was easing its pandemic lockdown measures and the government was ramping up stimulus measures.

    That saw the Fortescue share price at $21.63 on 8 June. Shares are down 21% since then.

    China is the world’s largest importer of iron ore, a core steel making ingredient, and it’s the chief destination for Aussie exports. But prices for iron ore and the companies that dig the metal from the earth have come under pressure amid a falling outlook for demand from the Middle Kingdom.

    According to Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ), courtesy of The Australian Financial Review, “The promise of more economic support in China failed to boost sentiment. Expectations of a rebound in the real estate sector have slowly fallen as renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 lead to further lockdowns.”

    Lachlan Shaw, co-head of mining research at UBS added, “There was a lot of expectation built into the iron ore price about more stimulus and construction in China in the second half, so to have signals coming through that counter that is testing the market’s patience.”

    As for the growth outlook for the latter half of 2022, Caroline Bain at Capital Economics said (quoted by the AFR):

    We expect China’s output to grow in y/y terms in the second half of the year given the much lower base. However, we still only forecast growth of around 1% this year given the government’s ongoing efforts to reduce the energy intensity of activity and carbon emissions. Demand, particularly from the residential property sector, is also likely to be subdued.

    Fortescue share price snapshot

    The Fortescue share price hasn’t escaped the wider selling pressure in 2022, down 14%. That compares to a year-to-date loss of 14% posted by the ASX 200.

    Longer-term, Fortescue shares have widely outperformed, up 265% in five years.

    The post Why is the Fortescue share price sinking 4% on Thursday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Fortescue Metals Group Limited right now?

    Before you consider Fortescue Metals Group Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Fortescue Metals Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Own Zip shares? Here’s how much debt the company has and what this could mean amid rising interest rates

    A corporate executive in a suit and wearing boxing gloves slumps in the corner of the ring representing the battered Zip share price and consideration reportedly being given to dumping the company's UK operations

    A corporate executive in a suit and wearing boxing gloves slumps in the corner of the ring representing the battered Zip share price and consideration reportedly being given to dumping the company's UK operations

    Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares are slipping in morning trade, down 3.2% to 45 cents per share.

    The ASX buy now, pay later (BNPL) share has been under tremendous selling pressure over the past year amid investor jitters over rising interest rates and rising debts.

    How will Zip shares fare amid rising interest rates and debts?

    As at December 2021, Zip’s total outstanding borrowings stood at $2.4 billion, as reported by The Australian. Some $400 million of debt will need to be refinanced in approximately two years.

    With Zip shares remaining under pressure, the company responded to investor concerns over inflation, interest rates and rising debts, reporting that its underlying business remained strong.

    It said it had “a solid pipeline of enterprise merchants” coming onto its platform. These include household names like Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), eBay and Best Buy.

    Addressing the impact of rising interest rates, Zip reported it was “well placed to respond to and offset” those effects. It listed a series of initiatives already in progress to cope with a higher rate environment. Those include consumer fee increases, merchant repricing, and increased customer repayment velocity.

    The United States market was reported to be particularly resilient to any impact from rising interest rates. Zip estimated that any 0.25% rate increases would impact its cost of fund by 0.02% per transaction.

    With the company still eyeing future growth, it reported its acquisition of Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL) is on track. Shareholders will vote on the acquisition later in 2022.

    What did management say?

    Commenting on Zip shares in the current market conditions, CEO Larry Diamond said:

    In an environment where wage growth is falling behind heightened inflationary pressures, affordability becomes an even more important priority for consumers as they budget each month.

    We believe our business model will stand up exceptionally well in such an environment as we continue to provide significant value and benefit to our customers and importantly our merchant partners seeking to drive continued growth.

    Zip advised shareholders it had AU$401.9 million undrawn and available in Australia, and US$168.1 million available in the US, with $303 million available in cash and liquidity as at 31 March.

    The company also has $24 million from its April share purchase plan (SPP). It expects to have sufficient capital to see it through to cash flow breakeven in the 2024 financial year.

    How have Zip shares been tracking?

    Zip shares have been hammered this year, down 90% since the opening bell on 4 January. That compares to a year-to-date loss of 15% posted by the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO.

    The post Own Zip shares? Here’s how much debt the company has and what this could mean amid rising interest rates appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Should you ‘buy the dip’ in ASX 200 bank shares?

    A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.

    Experienced ASX investors love a good market dip. Those who are confident and have been through several market cycles know it’s best to buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy, to borrow a nugget of wisdom from the world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett.

    So, what are the best ‘buy the dip‘ opportunities in front of us today?

    In this article, we’ll look at the ASX 200 bank shares. Is there money to be made by investing now for price gains during the recovery — whenever we get to it?

    Why is there a dip in ASX 200 bank shares anyway?

    So, there’s been a pretty major sell-off in ASX bank shares in recent times. The share prices of the big four are all down in 2022 — like the rest of the market — but the drop really accelerated in June.

    The reason? A 50-basis point interest rate hike announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia on 7 June.

    The last time the RBA made a change this large was May 2012. A decade ago. That’s how rare it is.

    The market expected an increase but 0.5% was a bit of a surprise. People were already worried about how bad inflation was going to get, and how high interest rates would have to go to arrest it.

    And if they go too high, could that bring on a recession?

    In response to the news, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dropped by 1.2% over 7 June and 8 June.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Financials (ASX: XFJ) went harder, losing 5.1% over the same two days. The index tumbled 14.8% in total over the next 10 days to 17 June, when it finally found support.

    Don’t rising interest rates mean the banks earn more money?

    Sure, rising interest rates mean the banks can charge millions of highly-leveraged Aussie homeowners more interest on their home loans. That’s a lot of extra income too, given Australia has the second-highest household debt in the world behind Switzerland. So, that’s the good part about rising rates for ASX 200 bank shares.

    The downside is that when inflation and interest rates are high or rising, people get cautious. They put off upsizing or downsizing and the banks usually see a decline in new mortgage business. Some people have trouble paying their mortgages and become a ‘bad debt’ on their bank’s balance sheet.

    Plus, rising global rates mean Aussie banks have to pay more interest on their own new borrowings from overseas wholesale banks to fund new mortgages here. As a result, net interest margins (NIMs) – the difference between the cost of borrowing and the income from loan interest — can decline.

    So, they’re the elements worrying ASX bank shareholders. They’re not just concerned about share prices either. They’re also wondering how all these headwinds are going to impact bank dividends.

    How big is the dip?

    The big four ASX bank shares have lost between 11% and 15% over the past month.

    Existing shareholders might see this as an excellent dollar-cost averaging opportunity. But others not already invested in the banks are probably wondering whether buying in now is smart or not.

    Let’s go to the experts.

    According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), top broker Morgan Stanley has recently reduced ASX bank shareholdings in its model portfolio from overweight to underweight.

    The broker has cut its price targets on the major ASX bank shares by 15% on average.

    In order of preference, Morgan Stanley likes Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) (overweight), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) (equal weight), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) (equal weight), and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) (underweight).

    What’s worrying the brokers about ASX bank shares?

    Fund manager T. Rowe Price worries that the earnings of ASX bank shares could “weaken sharply in the next six to 12 months as slowing growth sparks an increase in non-performing loans”.

    But managing director of Plato Investment Management Don Hamson says the market’s worries that higher interest rates will increase loss provisions are “way overdone”. He also says speculation about a potential recession is “way too premature”.

    UBS points out that the big banks have $15 billion in provisions between them. John Storey, head of Australian bank research at UBS, says: “There would need to be a substantial blow-up in credit provisions to derail the Australian banks earnings story.”

    Brendan Sproules, head of Australian bank research at Citi, agrees. He says: “We find that the current underwriting standards explicitly build a significant level of financial buffer, even for the most leveraged borrowers.”

    Citi reckons the recent sell-off is a buying opportunity. Macquarie agrees, calling it a “tactical” buying opportunity (which sounds cooler, right?)

    In another AFR story, the chief investment officer at Clime Investment Management, Will Riggall, says his team “will be selectively increasing our position in bank shares through this period of volatility“.

    “We see the high and sustainable dividend outlook as a key attraction in what is likely to be a lower-return environment.

    We believe house prices are set to decline. However, given the amount of savings held by consumers, we are unlikely to see the sharp increase in defaults that would be needed to offset the positive impact that higher variable rates have on bank earnings.

    We have a preference to own stocks with exposure to corporate and government spending, with the Australian consumer likely to remain under pressure.

    NAB has been a stellar performer for the portfolio this year, largely driven by the exceptional turnaround under new CEO Ross McEwan.

    So, what now?

    If you’re keen to buy this ASX bank share dip, better get in quick.

    The bottom of the dip looks to have been 17 June.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Financials has had a 4.3% rebound since then.

    The post Should you ‘buy the dip’ in ASX 200 bank shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

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    Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Macquarie Group Limited, and Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited and Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is the Ramelius share price getting rained on today?

    Businessman weathers headwinds with an umbrella.Businessman weathers headwinds with an umbrella.

    The Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) share price is trading 8% lower today at $1 apiece.

    Investors are selling the $945 million company by market cap following a company announcement on its gold production estimate for FY22.

    What did Ramelius announce?

    The company advised that gold production is expected to fall “marginally short” of the current guidance range.

    It noted that:

    [M]ore persistent rain than forecast, especially recently, on some of the haulage routes to both the Mt Magnet and Edna May operations, ongoing staff shortages due to COVID/influenza and a lower than forecast head grade from Tampia, it is expected that gold production for FY22 will fall marginally short of the current guidance range of 260,000 – 265,000 oz.

    This is despite the best efforts of the Ramelius and contractor teams in a challenging operating environment across the Western Australian resources industry.

    Ramelius downgraded FY22 production guidance to 255,000–260,000 ounces as a result.

    The company also noted it’s “too early” to provide definitive guidance on all-in-sustaining costs (AISC).

    Still, an AISC of $1,475–$1,525/ounce is a reasonable expectation, it noted.

    Actual results for FY22, in addition to FY23 guidance, will be provided in its quarterly report, set for release in July.

    Turning to the trading session, investors weren’t pleased with the news and have sold en masse today. Already they’ve pushed trading volume towards the 4-week average of 3.9 million shares.

    The loss also extends a difficult period for Ramelius on the chart. It is down 25% in the last month alone.

    Meanwhile, in the last 12 months, the Ramelius share price has cratered more than 41% and 36% this year to date.

    The post Why is the Ramelius share price getting rained on today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • ASX 200 midday update: Pilbara Minerals’ lithium price update, BHP tumbles

    An ASX200 market analyst holds his hand to his chin and looks closely at his computer screens watching share price movements

    An ASX200 market analyst holds his hand to his chin and looks closely at his computer screens watching share price movementsAt lunch on Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a decent gain. The benchmark index is currently up 0.4% to 6,534.2 points.

    Here’s what is happening on the ASX 200 today:

    Pilbara Minerals’ lithium price update

    The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is defying weakness in the lithium industry and charging higher. This has been driven by the release of an update on its BMX auction. According to the release, the company’s next auction has concluded before it even started after Pilbara Minerals received and accepted a pre-auction bid that equates to approximately US$7,000 per dry metric tonne (dmt). This is up from US$6,586 per dmt a month earlier.

    ASX 200 mining giants tumble

    It has been a difficult day of trade for mining giants BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG), and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO). They have taken a tumble this morning after the iron ore price continued its decline. According to Metal Bulletin, the benchmark iron ore price fell a further 5.5% to US$109.40 a tonne.

    ANZ shares lift on MYOB rumours

    The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price is outperforming on Thursday. This appears to have been driven by rumours that the banking giant is close to acquiring accounting software company MYOB. The bank is understood to be interested in building a one-stop platform for small businesses.

    Best and worst ASX 200 performers

    The best performer on the ASX 200 on Thursday has been the IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) share price with a 4.5% gain despite there being no news out of the IP services provider. Going the other way, the Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price is the worst performer with a 17% decline. The exit of its CEO and lithium demand concerns have been weighing on this new entrant to the ASX 200.

    The post ASX 200 midday update: Pilbara Minerals’ lithium price update, BHP tumbles appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended IPH Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended IPH Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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