Bankrate.com released a survey noting that 31 million Americans have or plan to tap into their retirement savings because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Joining The Final Round to discuss the survey further is Bankrate.com’s Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride.

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The global economy is beginning to reopen, and that is very good news. Oil stocks were under pressure even before the pandemic hit, but things got worse as lockdowns began. Demand fell of a cliff, and even Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) stock took a plunge.Source: Michael Gordon / Shutterstock.com At one point, Exxon Mobil stock was trading at levels not seen in 20 years.But, hope springs eternal. That hope is the only reason I can think of for investors to even consider buying Exxon Mobil stock today. Oil prices are rising. But it's hard to see prices moving to levels that would justify a long-term investment.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsIf you were brave enough to buy shares of Exxon Mobil on March 23, you've been rewarded with a nearly 40% gain. However, that gain can be chalked up to fishing in a barrel. While oil demand is likely to remain suppressed for some time, nobody expected prices to stay as low as they were.The questions seem to be how high will oil rise and how long will it take to get there? But if you're thinking of using rising oil as a reason to buy Exxon Mobil stock, you may want to reconsider. Don't Count on Oil to Save Exxon Mobil StockIf you look at the historical track of XOM stock with oil prices, a pattern emerges. When oil prices are low, there is a larger delta between the two prices. However, that delta narrows significantly the higher that crude prices go. * 7 Red-Hot Vaccine Stocks Racing to Develop a Coronavirus Cure So let's put it in simple terms. Crude prices have risen nearly 200% in the last month. In that same period of time, Exxon Mobil shares have climbed about 40%. And as of this writing, Exxon trades about 50% higher than the price of a barrel of oil.But if you look back to April 2019, when crude was trading around $65 per barrel, shares of XOM were around $80. It's a premium for sure, but much less than what you're getting today.But that's just one data point. Let's look at another. At the beginning of October 2018, crude oil was trading at around $76 per barrel. Investors could have snagged shares of Exxon Mobil stock for around $85. Do you see the point I'm trying to make?The conventional wisdom says that the rising price of crude is a tide that will lift all boats. And while that may be true on some levels, it has not been the case in terms of the price of Exxon Mobil stock. The Juice Isn't Worth the SqueezeBut wait you say, crude prices wouldn't have to rise that much higher for XOM stock to reach $60. And that would be a nice gain from its current level. Sure, all of that is true, but it's also relying on a lot of things to go right.JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon recently predicted a "fairly rapid" recovery for the U.S. economy. But that is no guarantee that the price of oil is set to return to anything close to the kind of juice Exxon needs for growth. First of all, there is still a glut of oil on the market. Then you have to look at headwinds on the demand side.First, it's hard to estimate how many workers may decide that they want to continue working from home. And that number may increase if kids aren't allowed to go back to school in the fall.Second, business travel is likely to decline in the short term. And even for those companies that want to do business overseas, they may find that international destinations are not available. Will domestic travel be enough to overcome that? What about if airlines are required to enact strict social distancing protocols?And then there is the question of what demand will be for taking a cruise. All of these questions will have a profound effect on the direction of oil prices. And the futures market is saying not so fast. At the time of this writing, the highest price for crude on the futures market is the March 2021 contract which is currently at $35.93. The Bottom Line: It Costs Too Much to Get XOM WrongAt times investing can be very simple. In the case of Exxon Mobil stock, the fundamental question is, what is the cost of being wrong? Exxon recently froze its dividend. That in itself is not the problem. It's a prudent move in uncertain times. However, Exxon is borrowing money to pay for the existing dividend. That rarely works out well. And, even if oil does move higher, the cost of servicing the debt will be an additional anchor on stock prices.But once again ask yourself this question: Would a company freeze its dividend if it expected revenue to increase?Exxon Mobil has one of the lower debt-capital ratios in the oil industry. And unlike other oil stocks, there's little doubt that Exxon Mobil will live to fight another day. But even if you believe that the worst is over for Exxon Mobil stock, less bad is no reason to buy.If you're an investor that's looking for capital growth, you have probably missed your window. And now with a dividend freeze, I expect value investors will start looking for the door. If you're currently investing in the stock, I suggest you do the same.Chris Markoch is a freelance financial copywriter who has been covering the market for over five years. He has been writing for InvestorPlace since 2019. As of this writing, Chris Markoch did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * The Huge Story for 2020 & Beyond That You Aren't Hearing About * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post Keep It Simple and Avoid Exxon Mobil Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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In this article we will check out the progression of hedge fund sentiment towards Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and determine whether it is a good investment right now. We at Insider Monkey like to examine what billionaires and hedge funds think of a company before spending days of research on it. Given their 2 and 20 […]

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Good Judgment CEO Warren Hatch joins Yahoo Finance’s On The Move panel to discuss how his company’s ‘Superforecasters’ are predicting the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy.

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Since falling to an $8.25 low in April, American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) is holding the $10.00 level. Markets have a wait and see approach on AAL stock because its business recovery depends on passenger traffic rebounding.Source: GagliardiPhotography / Shutterstock.com Realistically, investors should expect a sustained uptrend in air flight demand in the coming weeks. Businesses are opening across the United States, and as companies hire back staff and at-home workers travel, expect business travel levels increasing.In the last week (week of May 18 – 22, 2020), the Transportation Security Administration reported that total travel throughput increased by around 33%. This is also more than triple from the April lows.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsDate Total Traveler Throughput Total Traveler Throughput (1 Year Ago – Same Weekday) 5/22/2020 348,673 2,792,670 5/21/2020 318,449 2,673,635 5/20/2020 230,367 2,472,123 5/19/2020 190,477 2,312,727 5/18/2020 244,176 2,615,691 Data courtesy of TSAThe airline industry has a long way to go before it reaches last year's traveler count in the millions. Cargo Flights Positive for AAL StockInstead of waiting for passenger traffic levels to recover, American Airlines expanded its all-cargo international flights. It now operates 140 weekly all-cargo flights. By "medical supplies, personal protective equipment (PPE), perishables, and other time-sensitive freight around the world," American Airlines is playing a role in fighting the spread of Covid-19, which could help keep AAL stock from falling too much further. * 7 Red-Hot Vaccine Stocks Racing to Develop a Coronavirus Cure At a time when cross-border trading and transport are sharply reduced, American is in a good position to keep such essential goods as medical equipment and food supplies sent to places that need it. And in a post-Covid-19 world, AAL may want to continue growing its cargo transport business. It has retired Boeing (NYSE:BA) 767s that are being turned into cargo planes.Airlines for America endorsed plans to include temperature checks of passengers and airline and airport employees.Although this does not eliminate the risk of spreading the coronavirus, it will at least discourage people who are ill from boarding a plane. Still, the temperature check is not fool-proof. For example, this study in Pittsburgh found that 5% to 20% of subjects who had been exposed to the coronavirus only noticed none to mild illness.The Centers for Disease Control may mandate airports to check temperatures. Any prevention tool available will help minimize spreading the virus as the economy opens.Adding staff to screen passengers, wipe down planes, offer masks, gloves, and hand sanitizer will add to the airline's costs. AAL will likely pass the costs to its customers. And when more flights resume and run at lower capacity, it may increase plane ticket prices. This is a necessary step in operating the business at above break-even levels. AAL Stock Fair ValueInvestors may build a 5-year discounted cash flow model: EBITDA exit model. Assume revenue plunging in the next two fiscal years and then recovering thereafter:(USD in millions) Input Projections Fiscal Years Ending 19-Dec 20-Dec 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec Revenue 45,768 18,307 10,984 17,026 26,390 38,265 % Growth 2.80% -60.00% -40.00% 55.00% 55.00% 45.00% EBITDA 6,207 -4,088 2,746 3,405 6,597 8,610 % of Revenue 13.60% -22.30% 25.00% 20.00% 25.00% 22.50%Data Courtesy of FinboxAt a discount rate of 7%, American Airlines stock is worth around $13 a share. On Wall Street, 17 analysts rating the stock have an average price target of around $14.00. Investors need to balance their optimistic view of a sales rebound next year against the average sales growth in the sub-3% range: Stock Industry S&P 500 Growth Score 56 69 75 Sales Growth Sales Growth Next Year 53.70% 46.20% 11.30% Sales 1‑Year Chg (%) -2.30% 8.10% 17.20% Sales 3‑Year Avg (%) 2.70% 9.90% 12.20% Data Courtesy of Stock RoverAs shown above, American's growth trails that of the S&P 500. The good news is that its sales growth will outpace the industry next year. Your TakeawayInvestors should watch daily TSA passenger data as well as the progress of the re-opening in the United States. The more businesses re-open, the greater the need to travel domestically, whether for business or tourism.Along with social distancing practices on all flights, passengers will feel at ease when boarding a plane.Disclosure: As of this writing, the author did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * The Huge Story for 2020 & Beyond That You Aren't Hearing About * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post It Looks as If American Airlines Stock Is Set for a Big Return Next Year appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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(Bloomberg) — One farm in Tennessee distributed Covid-19 tests to all of its workers after an employee came down with the virus. It turned out that every single one of its roughly 200 employees had been infected.In New Jersey, more than 50 workers had the virus at a farm in Gloucester County, adding to nearly 60 who fell ill in neighboring Salem County. Washington state’s Yakima County, an agricultural area that produces apples, cherries, pears and most of the nation’s hops, has the highest per capita infection rate of any county on the West Coast.The outbreaks underscore the latest pandemic threat to food supply: Farm workers are getting sick and spreading the illness just as the U.S. heads into the peak of the summer produce season. In all likelihood, the cases will keep climbing as more than half a million seasonal employees crowd onto buses to move among farms across the country and get housed together in cramped bunkhouse-style dormitories.The early outbreaks are already starting to draw comparisons to the infections that plunged the U.S. meat industry into crisis over the past few months. Analysts and experts are warning that thousands of farm workers are vulnerable to contracting the disease.Aside from the most immediate concern — the grave danger that farmhands face — the outbreaks could also create labor shortages at the worst possible time. Produce crops such as berries have a short life span, with only a couple of weeks during which they can be harvested. If a farm doesn’t have enough workers to collect crops in that window, they’re done for the season and the fruit will rot. A spike in virus cases among workers may mean shortages of some fruits and vegetables at the grocery store, along with higher prices.“We’re watching very, very nervously — the agricultural harvest season is only starting now,” said Michael Dale, executive director of the Northwest Workers’ Justice Project in Portland, Oregon, and a lawyer who has represented farm workers for 40 years. “I don’t think we’re ready. I don’t think we’re prepared.”Unlike grain crops that rely on machinery, America’s fruits and vegetables are mostly picked and packed by hand, in long shifts out in the open — a typically undesirable job in major economies. So the position typically goes to immigrants, who make up about three quarters of U.S. farm workers.A workforce of seasonal migrants travels across the nation, following harvest patterns. Most come from Mexico and Latin America through key entry points like southern California, and go further by bus, often for hours, sometimes for days.There are as many as 2.7 million hired farm workers in the U.S., including migrant, seasonal, year-round and guest-program workers, according to the Migrant Clinicians Network. While many migrants have their permanent residence in the U.S., moving from location to location during the warmer months, others enter through the federal H2A visa program. Still, roughly half of hired crop farmworkers lack legal immigration status, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.These are some of the most vulnerable populations in the U.S., subjected to tough working conditions for little pay and meager benefits. Most don’t have access to adequate health care. Many don’t speak English.Without them, it would be nearly impossible to keep America’s produce aisles filled. And yet, there’s no one collecting national numbers on how many are falling sick.“There is woefully inadequate surveillance of what’s happening with Covid-19 and farm workers,” said Erik Nicholson, a national vice president for the United Farm Workers. “There is no central reporting, which is crazy because these are essential businesses.”At Henderson Farms in Evensville, Tennessee, where all the workers caught the virus, the employees are now all in isolation at the farm, where they live and work.“We take our responsibility to protect the essential workers feeding the nation through the pandemic seriously,” Henderson Farms Co. said in a statement. “In addition to continuing our policy of providing free healthcare, we have implemented additional measures to support workers directly impacted by Covid-19, including those in isolation as per the latest public health guidelines. We are working closely with public health officials in Rhea County, Tennessee, to ensure we can continue to deliver our high standard of care as we support our workers and our community through these unprecedented times.”One migrant worker from Mexico said seven employees at the Georgia produce farm where he works had fallen ill with the virus. The sick were asked to quarantine in a dormitory unpaid, but others who share the sleeping quarters, full of bunk beds about 3 feet (1 meter) apart, were still going into the fields, he said. He said he was afraid of getting infected, which would mean he wouldn’t be able to send money back to his family.Critical MonthsMay and June mark the start of a critical few months when migrant workers head to fields in North America and Europe to plant and gather crops. Travel restrictions amid the pandemic are already creating a labor squeeze. In Russia, the government is calling on convicts and students to fill in the labor gap on berry and vegetable farms. In the U.K., Prince Charles took to Twitter to encourage residents to PickForBritain. Farmers in western Europe usually rely on seasonal workers from eastern Europe or northern Africa.In Canada, migrant workers often come from Jamaica, Guatemala and Mexico. They’re typically housed on farms, with two or four people sharing a room, depending on if there are bunk-beds, said Colin Chapdelaine, president of BC Hot House, a greenhouse farming company that grow tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers in Surrey, British Columbia.All the houses are audited and approved by regulators with guidelines for how much kitchen and bathroom space to provide, but “Covid has kind of turned that on its head,” he said.“It’s a precarious situation if something happens and it flows through a greenhouse and you can’t pick your crop,” Chapdelaine said. “We’re taking huge precautions to make sure everyone comes in suited and masked up. You have to do all the right things and still hope for the best.”In the U.S., migrant farm workers primarily come from Mexico and Latin America.President Donald Trump has sought to maintain the flow of foreign workers to U.S. farms during the pandemic, waiving interview requirements for some guest workers when consular offices shut down and exempting them from a temporary immigration ban. But so far, the administration hasn’t created rules to protect the workers. Democratic Representative Jimmy Panetta of California and 71 other members of Congress urged in a letter last week that the next coronavirus relief package include funding dedicated to combating spread of the virus among farm workers.Even before infections started to creep up, there weren’t enough workers, causing harvest issues in parts of the U.S. Some prices started to move up. A 2-pound package of strawberries is fetching about 17% more than it was last year, and a pint of cherry tomatoes is 52% higher, USDA data as of May 22 show.So far, though, the price impact has been limited. As restaurants shuttered during virus lockdowns, many farmers lost a key source of produce demand, creating some supply gluts.Now, stay-at-home restrictions are easing in all 50 states, and some restaurants are opening back up. Meanwhile, labor shortages could get worse as illness among farm workers deepens.“The cost will go up, and there will be a little bit less available,” said Kevin Kenny, chief operating officer of Decernis, an expert in global food safety and supply chains. “You really will see some supply issues coming.”Perishable crops that require more hands on labor to pick are the most at-risk of disruptions, including olives and oranges, Kenny said.In Florida, oranges are “literally dying on the vines” as not enough migrants can get into the country to pick the crops and things like processed juice will probably cost more in the coming months, he said.When the virus spread among America’s meat workers, plants were forced to shutter as infections rates topped 50% in some facilities. Prices surged, with wholesale beef and pork more than doubling, and grocers including Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationed customer purchases. Even Wendy’s Co. dropped burgers from some menus. After an executive order from Trump, plants have reopened, but worker absenteeism is restraining output. Hog and cattle slaughter rates are still down more than 10% from last year.The produce industry could see similar problems because workers face some of the same issues. They sometimes work shoulder to shoulder. They are transported to and from job sites in crowded buses or vans. They often come from low-income families and can’t afford to call in sick or are afraid of losing their jobs, so they end up showing up to work even if they have symptoms.“A lot of people are concerned that the summer for farm workers will be like the spring for meat packers,” said David Seligman, director of Towards Justice, a nonprofit law firm and advocacy organization based in Denver.There’s “a lot of worker fear because of the asymmetry of power in this industry,” Seligman said. “We’re hearing anecdotal reports. Gathering information about farm workers is very hard because of how scared and how isolated they are.”There are some key differences between the two industries. For one, farm workers spend most of their time outside, and some research has shown that the virus is less likely to be spread outdoors. Meanwhile, meat workers are piled into cold, damp factories where infectious diseases are particularly hard to control.In other ways, farm workers are more exposed. Living conditions can be even more cramped, with close-together bunks and communal cooking and bathroom facilities that make physical distancing extremely difficult.Plus, the workers move around so much, meaning increased chances of exposure for themselves and more chances that sick individuals can spread the illness to other communities.In Oregon, a farm worker often may move a half dozen times during the summer, working for new growers and housed in new labor camps as they shift from harvesting cherries to strawberries to blueberries to pears, said Dale of the Northwest Workers’ Justice Project.Nely Rodriguez is a former farm worker who is now an organizer with the Coalition of Immokalee Workers in Immokalee, Florida, a major tomato growing area. She said that some farms are taking steps to protect migrants, such as having buses make more trips so workers won’t be as cramped and requiring them to wear masks, as well as providing more hand-washing stations and sanitizer.Lisa Lochridge, a spokeswoman for the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association, also pointed to increased measures to protect workers and said some employers even set aside separate housing to be used for a quarantine area if necessary. Cory Lunde, of the Western Growers Association, said farm owners are staggering start times, disinfecting buses and increasing distances between workers, both in the field and in packing facilities and offices.But protection measures can be spotty, said Rodriguez of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers. There aren’t yet any farm specific Covid-19 safety protocols from the federal government.Developing GuidanceThe USDA is “diligently working” with the the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration “to develop guidance that will assist farmworkers and employers during this time,” the agency said in an emailed statement.“Additionally, considering the seasonal and migratory nature of the workforce, we are working to identify housing resources that may be available to help control any spread of Covid-19,” the USDA said.Harvests take place at different times across the country, depending on the weather and the crop. That means when gathering finishes in an early state like Florida, workers will travel into areas such as Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana and New Jersey, said Rodriguez of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers. They’ll often make the journey on old school buses rented by employers, sitting for 7 or 8 hours at a time with 45 people crammed in.“If there is a bunch of farm workers here that are sick, they can essentially spread this virus to other rural communities,” Rodriguez said.Many farm workers come from indigenous communities in southern Mexico and don’t speak English or Spanish as their first language, so they don’t have adequate information on the pandemic in a language they can understand, said Bruce Goldstein, president of Farmworker Justice, a national advocacy group.They typically don’t have easy access to coronavirus tests, and many are undocumented so they are concerned about reporting illnesses, he said.“They’re marginalized in Mexico. They’re similarly marginalized here,” Goldstein said. “People like that are incredibly vulnerable to Covid-19.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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