In late morning trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is following the lead of U.S. markets and dropping lower. At the time of writing the benchmark index is down over 1% to 5,365.1 points.

Four shares that have fallen more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:

The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price is down almost 5% to $1.40. Investors have been selling Beach and other energy shares after a pullback in oil prices overnight. Though, one broker that thinks its shares are in the buy zone is Morgans. This morning it retained its add rating with a reduced price target of $1.66.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is down 3% to $59.01. This decline may have been driven by a broker note out of Morgan Stanley this morning. In response to its third quarter update, the broker has retained its underweight rating and cut the price target on its shares to $56.00. It doesn’t believe Commonwealth Bank deserves to trade at a premium and is expecting a big dividend cut in August.

The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has fallen 3.5% to $3.42. Investors have been selling the airline operator’s shares after the Queensland government confirmed that it is looking to buy a stake in rival Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX: VAH). The state government appears determined not to let Virgin Australia collapse during the pandemic.

The Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price is down almost 4% to $80.62 following the release of its full year results. For the 12 months ended March 31, the business and accounting software company delivered a 30% lift in operating revenue and a 52% lift in EBITDA. Whilst this was strong, the company warned that it is being impacted by the pandemic. As such, no guidance was provided for FY 2021.

More reading

• Two exciting ASX tech shares to buy right now
• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
• Losers of Virgin Australia’s potential nationalisation
• Are ASX travel shares like Qantas great value?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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What will happen to ASX shares if Australian house prices do actually fall 30% like some economists are predicting.

A lot is being made of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) predicted scenario where house prices may fall 30% due to the coronavirus. But that’s just one potential scenario. CBA isn’t saying house prices will fall 30%, it isn’t the most likely outcome – just a worst-case one.

How far do banks think property will fall?

However, all of the big four ASX banks are now predicting that house prices are probably going to fall by more than 10%. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in some areas house prices have already dropped 10%, it just isn’t reflected in the statistics yet.

Obviously if house prices were to drop it would be bad news for a wide variety of ASX shares. For starters, I think CBA, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) would all suffer.

I believe the regional lenders would also suffer. The pain may be smaller in dollar terms, but don’t forget their loan books are smaller too. In percentage terms it could be just as bad, if not worse. I’d watch for the effects on Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN).

If house prices dropped 30% then that could cause higher bank bad debts due to negative equity.

I think it could also be bad for property businesses that are somewhat reliant on a robust property market. Think of shares like REA Group Limited (ASX: REA), Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG), CSR Limited (ASX: CSR), Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (ASX: BLX) and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK). Share prices would probably fall.

The negative effect could be a noticeable negative for many areas of the economy like we saw during the first half of 2019. And think of all of the taxes generated by property values for various areas of government – stamp duty, council rates and so on.

Falling house prices may be good for one group of people, avocado eaters may finally be able to afford a house.

Do I think house prices will fall 30%?

Australia’s economy is quite reliant on property. Would property buyers really let Aussie house prices fall that far? Maybe everyone would jump in at a 20% reduction. Interest rates are now incredibly low which makes it easier to afford a property.

I certainly expect property will fall over 10% (some property buyers say they already have in parts). But I think a 30% won’t happen because of the Aussie love for property and how much support there is and will be for property prices.

More reading

• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• Is the CBA share price a buy?
• Negative interest rates coming? Here’s what it would mean for ASX shares
• ASX 200 up 0.35%, CBA gives Q3 update

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The Queensland state government’s announcement of the potential nationalisation of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH) is undoubtedly a value-destroying move, in my view. Airlines are capital-intensive companies. They have good margins, but not great. Attaching a company like that to the state finances appears, prima facie, as a recipe for disaster.

At time of writing, Virgin owes $2.28 billion to secured lenders and secured leaseholders, $1.98 billion to unsecured bondholders, $1.88 billion to aircraft lessors and $451 million in entitlements to around 9,000 workers. In total, almost $7 billion to over 12,000 parties. 

In any debt restructuring and bailout, creditors can exert some influence. However, all bidders will be looking to reduce payments to debt holders – a situation the state government would find difficult. 

This is particularly as Queensland would be doing so for its own state interest. While this is fair enough, I believe it adds little value to the remainder of the airline’s national customers, aside from placing their interests always second. The irreplaceable value of Virgin to the Queensland economy has been overblown. As has the need for government intervention.

Alternatives to nationalisation

Outside of nationalisation, a range of potential bidders has come to light. Among them is Andrew Forrest, a man whose determination has already launched 2 multi-billion dollar enterprises in Western Australia. 

Deloitte, Virgin’s lead administrator, previously stated that 8 bidders were already confirmed, with negotiations continuing with a further 12 potential bidders. Some of these allegedly include Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), American airline investor Indigo Partners, Richard Branson and private equity firm BGH Capital.

Indicative bids for the airline are due by tomorrow, 15 May. Final bids are expected in June with Deloitte confident of completing the sales process by the end of June.

Capitalism works

Within Queensland, there are regional airlines like Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) or even Regional Express Holdings Ltd (ASX: REX). These airlines already carry a lot of the load of intra-state and regional air traffic. Not only in Queensland but also in my own state of Western Australia. The vacancy remains at the interstate level. 

Of these 2 airlines, I am particularly fond of Alliance. This company is the nation’s unheralded workhorse, ferrying many workers to and from resource projects. It has recently won a contract extension with South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and has continued operations throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. All of its aircraft belong to the company, which prides itself in operating to world-class standards. 

Foolish takeaway

In my opinion, any attempt at nationalisation by the Queensland government into the Virgin Australia bidding process is likely to produce a large number of losers. These include the taxpayers of Queensland, customers of Virgin across the nation, small but robust airlines like Alliance, as well as those who are dedicating time and capital to winning the bidding process.

Many airlines across the world have government support. However, in Australia, I believe this is not necessary. Virgin Blue demonstrated that.

More reading

• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• The Queensland government is aiming to buy a stake in Virgin Australia
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• ABS reveals overseas travel arrivals plummeted a massive 99% in April
• ASX stock of the day: This ASX airline share jumped 45% today on expansion speculation

The post Losers of Virgin Australia’s potential nationalisation appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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I think having a little exposure to the small cap side of the market would be a very good thing for a portfolio.

You only need to look at how successful investing in the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) IPO in 2016 would have been to see why.

And while very few small cap shares will be as successful as Afterpay, there are a number on the market that have the potential to follow in its footsteps.

Three small cap shares I think have enormous potential are listed below:

Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (ASX: BTH)

Bigtincan is a fast-growing provider of enterprise mobility software. The company’s software allows sales and service organisations to increase their sales win rates, reduce expenditures, and improve customer satisfaction. This is achieved through improved mobile worker productivity. It counts a wide range of blue chips as customers and continues to grow during the pandemic. Bigtincan recently reaffirmed that it is on course to achieve organic revenue growth in the range of 30% to 40% in FY 2020.

Serko Ltd (ASX: SKO)

Serko is a technology company focused on innovative solutions that address the challenges of corporate travel and expense management. It was growing at a very strong rate over the last fews years thanks to the increasing popularity of its Zeno product. And while its performance looks likely to be negatively impacted by the coronavirus, I expect it to bounce back strongly once conditions ease.

Whispir (ASX: WSP)

Whispir is a software-as-a-service communications workflow platform provider. Its industry-leading software platform allows companies to deliver actionable two-way interactions at scale using automated multi-channel communication workflows. This helps make operations more efficient and can cut down the number of service desk support calls. It counts a number of big names as customers such as Disney and Foxtel.

More reading

• 3 top ASX shares to buy now and hold for 10 years
• If you invested $10,000 in the Afterpay IPO, this is how much you’d have now
• Is the Zip share price in the buy zone?
• Why Afterpay, Flight Centre, Mesoblast, & Sezzle shares are dropping lower
• Safe dividend stocks to buy today for the COVID-19 world

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Serko Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended BIGTINCAN FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Serko Ltd and Whispir Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Could these small cap ASX shares be the next Afterpay? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having an off day and is trading notably lower in late morning trade. At the time of writing the benchmark index is down 0.8% to 5,380.4 points.

Four shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are charging higher:

The Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) share price has jumped 10% to $20.52. This morning Breville completed the institutional component of its equity raising. The appliance maker raised $94 million at $17.00 per new share. This represents a discount of 9.1% to its last close price. The company also released a positive trading update which revealed strong sales growth in the second half. Between January 1 and April 30, Breville’s revenue was up 32% on the prior corresponding period. Sales grew 25% in March and 21% in April.

The Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is up 6% to $3.49 following the release of its half year results. For the six months ended March 31, the grain exporter delivered an underlying net profit after tax of $55 million. This was an increase from a $48 million net loss after tax in the prior corresponding period.

The Mesoblast limited (ASX: MSB) share price has jumped 10% to $3.73. Investors have been buying the regenerative medicine company’s shares in recent weeks due to promising trials of its allogeneic cell therapy, remestemcel-L. The company is testing its efficacy in treating acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the most devastating symptom of COVID-19. Phase 2/3 trials are ongoing, with the dosing of some patients commencing last week.

The Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) share price is up 4.5% to $29.30. A number of gold miners are pushing higher on Thursday after a solid rise in the gold price overnight. The precious metal rose amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon embark on further stimulus. In late morning trade the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is up by almost 3%.

More reading

• This ASX 200 share is rocketing higher after delivering more strong sales growth
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• This ASX 200 gold share is making the most of the gold rush
• ASX gold shares steady: Can gold provide your portfolio with defensive and safe returns?
• ASX 200 down 0.9%: CBA reveals $1.5bn COVID19 provision & gold miners charge higher

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Why Breville, Graincorp, Mesoblast, & Newcrest shares are charging higher appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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Should you cash out of this S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rally?

The ASX 200 has had a pretty top few weeks. Since the lows we saw in late March, the ASX 200 has rallied almost 20%. That’s more than double the index’s long-term average annual return – albeit following a 37% crash earlier in the year.

Still, the confidence of many ASX investors would be well up from the widespread panic we saw in March. Some shares like the ASX banks have stabilised. Others like CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) are edging ever closer to their pre-crash highs.

But this begs the question – is now a good time to ‘cash out’ and lock in some gains? Particularly since the markets don’t seem to be factoring in that we’re about to go through the worst recession Australia has seen in decades.

Time to cash out?

It might be tempting to cash out of some or all of your holdings if you’re nervous about the markets right now. After all, cash is king in a market crash.

But here’s the problem.

Do you actually know what the markets will look like tomorrow, in two months, six months or a year’s time? Of course not, otherwise you wouldn’t be reading this article! Even the best investors in the world, like Warren Buffett, don’t try to pretend they know exactly what the markets will do next.

Plus, odds are (like most ASX investors), your portfolio still has some losses left over from the March crash. To paraphrase a great song, you can cash out any time you’d like, but you can never leave… your losses once you do so.

Yes, the ASX might crash the day after you cash out and you’ll look and feel like a genius.

But maybe it won’t. Maybe it will go on to hit new highs – stranger things have happened. As the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. And if that happens, you probably won’t feel so smart.

And even if you do pull off a well-timed cash out, when are you going to jump back in? That’s two incredible punts you’re going to have to pull off.

Throw in the costs of jumping in and out of the markets (taxes, brokerage, fees etc.) and it’s a very narrow tightrope you’re trying to walk.

Foolish takeaway

Like most of us Fools, I think having a long-term mindset is the best way to invest in shares. Thus, I think trying to time the market by cashing out ‘before the crash’ is folly. Investing in shares means you’re in it for the good times and the bad – it’s all part of the game. Trying to dodge the inevitable will usually result in poor returns over the long run!

More reading

• This ASX 200 share is rocketing higher after delivering more strong sales growth
• If you invested $10,000 in the Afterpay IPO, this is how much you’d have now
• David Tepper believes we’re in the biggest stock bubble since 1999
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• The latest ASX shares upgraded by brokers to “buy”

Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Should you cash out of this ASX 200 rally? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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One of my favourite dividend shares has just announced it is forecasting growing dividends to March 2022.

That business is Duxton Water Ltd (ASX: D2O). It’s a unique company that’s building a portfolio of water entitlements across the southern Murray Darling Basin. It then leases that water to farmers, through long-term leases and both spot and forward contract allocation sales.

The Duxton Water share price is up over 1% in response to the news this morning.

Today, it announced the execution of a new water lease arrangement starting 1 July 2020. This will take the leased portion of the permanent water portfolio to 66%, generating $9.5 million of annualised leasing revenue from 1 July 2020.

Duxton Water has a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 2.9 years with 5.2 years inclusive of renewal options. This WALE provides a lot of medium-term certainty for the dividend share.

Duxton Water’s dividend share credentials

The Board of the company doesn’t foresee any significant impacts from the coronavirus. Firstly, the company has reaffirmed the intention to pay a 2.9 per share fully franked dividend in September. Then a fully franked 3 cent dividend in March 2021.

Today, thanks to the forward visibility of lease revenue, Duxton Water announced a dividend target of 3.1 cents to be paid in September 2021 and a further target of 3.2 cents to be paid in March 2022. That’s two years of dividends pencilled in. Great news for people looking for a reliable dividend share.

At the current Duxton Water share price the next 12 months of dividends amounts to a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.4%. The dividends in the subsequent 12 months amounts to a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.75%.

Is the Duxton Water share price a buy?

Duxton Water has increased its dividend every six months since November 2017. I think it could be one of the best dividend shares on the ASX over the next two years. Many others are cutting their dividends. It’s currently trading at a discount of around 20% to its pre-tax NTA and a 28% discount to the post-tax NTA. I’d be happy to buy a few shares today. 

More reading

• Is it time to buy ASX small caps for your portfolio?
• Replace your term deposit with these 3 ASX dividend shares
• Bank dividends deferred. Where should retirees get dividends?
• Forget ANZ! Buy these top ASX dividend shares instead for income
• 4 top ASX dividend shares for income investors in May

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of DUXTON FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended DUXTON FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post 1 of my favourite dividend shares just forecast growing dividends to March 2022 appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The COVID-19 pandemic may have forced many retailers to close their doors forever. Despite the doom and gloom, I believe it is still possible for investors to find long-term value in the Australian retail sector.

Here’s why Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) could be the best retail share listed on the ASX.  

How has Premier Investments performed?

As the owner of prominent retail brands such as Smiggle, Peter Alexander and Just Jeans, Premier Investments has suffered the same fate as most retailers in Australia. The company recently released an update informing the market that sales had plunged 74% for the 6 weeks to 6 May 2020, with overseas sales tanking 99% in the same period.

In response to the pandemic, the Premier Investments share price had dropped more than 56% year-to-date by late March. Despite the sharp fall, the company’s share price has recovered more than 87% from its low in March and is poised to continue as the Australian economy looks to restart.  

Billionaire owner taking fight to landlords

Billionaire Solomon Lew is the chairman of Premier Investments and has built his fortune working in the retail business over the past 50 years. Drawing on his wealth of experience, Mr. Lew has made it clear to commercial landlords that stores under Premier Investments will only pay rent in arrears based on a proportion of gross sales when they reopen.

In an article in The Australian, Mr. Lew stated that Premier Investments intends to do everything possible in order to get people back to work. The company was forced to stand down 9,000 employees last month as governments imposed restrictions to curb the pandemic.

What is the outlook for Premier Investments?

Despite the fall in sales, Premier Investments saw online sales surge more than 99% for the 6 weeks to 6 May 2020. The increase in e-commerce reflects the change the pandemic has had on consumer behaviour. Although Premier Investments’ stores are largely brick and mortar stores, 70% of the company’s leases in Australia and New Zealand expire in the near future.

As a result, Premier Investments has the luxury of adjusting its online and physical store mix. The company has also reassured shareholders of its strong balance sheet that has Premier Investments well placed to begin a recovery.

Foolish takeaway

In my opinion, Premier Investments is possibly the best retail share listed on the ASX. The company boasts a strong portfolio of competitive global brands and has the cash to capitalise on future opportunities.

In addition to its size, the company also boasts the flexibility to adapt to changing consumer behaviour and e-commerce facilities. Premier Investments also has an experienced board that gives the company the luxury of experience that not many ASX retail shares have.

As the Australian economy restarts, it is far from going back to business as usual. Now may not be the time to invest in retail, however, I believe it would be prudent to keep Premier Investments on your watchlist for the future.

More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy right now
• ASX retail rental war gathers pace
• ASX 200 drops over 1% at the market close
• Why CSR, Kogan, Premier Investments, & ResMed shares are storming higher
• Premier Investments share price higher after announcing store reopenings and online sales surge

Motley Fool contributor Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Premier Investments Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) may be sinking lower today, but that hasn’t stopped the Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) share price from rocketing higher.

In morning trade the appliance maker’s shares have returned from their trading halt and jumped 10% higher to $20.54.

Why was the Breville share price in a trading halt?

Breville requested a trading halt on Wednesday while it undertook a $104 million equity raising.

This morning the company revealed that it has successfully completed the underwritten institutional placement component of the equity raising.

Breville has raised $94 million through the issue of approximately 5.5 million new shares to institutional investors for $17.00 per new share. This represents a discount of 9.1% to its last close price.

It will now push ahead with its share purchase plan which aims to raise a further $10 million.

The proceeds will be used to enhance Breville’s financial flexibility to continue to invest in the execution of its growth agenda while maintaining a strong financial position.

Why is the Breville share price rocketing higher?

Equity raisings rarely send share prices hurtling higher, so readers may be curious about today’s gains.

Investors have been buying the company’s shares after it released a trading update with its equity raising announcement.

According to the release, Breville has been performing very strongly during the second half of FY 2020, despite the pandemic and store closures.

Between January 1 and April 30, Breville’s revenue was up 32% on the prior corresponding period. Sales grew 25% in March and 21% in April.

Management commented: “At a segment level, Global Product has delivered 32% revenue growth, or 24% in constant currency terms, from 1 January to 30 April 2020.”

“In constant currency terms, March delivered 14% growth which strengthened to 18% in April. This is despite retailers in key regions closing stores during government mandated lockdowns. Sell-through exceeded sell-in growth in all key regions, as demand remained strong and retailers ran down their inventory,” it added.

Despite its sales growing strongly, the company has been quick to manage its cashflows and reduce cash expenses to minimum levels.

These cost savings are designed to temporarily reduce salary costs but protect capability, temporarily reduce marketing and increase its return on investment, while ensuring that its product development continues.

Pleasingly, the pandemic doesn’t look likely to stifle its expansion plans. Management revealed that it is in advanced planning for the entry into further international markets in FY 2021. The funds raised today are expected to support this growth plan.

More reading

• Why Breville, Graincorp, Mesoblast, & Newcrest shares are charging higher
• Should you cash out of this ASX 200 rally?
• David Tepper believes we’re in the biggest stock bubble since 1999
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• The latest ASX shares upgraded by brokers to “buy”

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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