Tag: Stock pick

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) has been in the news for all the wrong reasons recently, with a class action launched against the company and a $150 million judgment against it for cultural damage at sites in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.

Fortescue’s mining operations ticking along

On the operational front, however, the company is delivering solid results and is also looking to invest US$680 million in new green energy infrastructure to support its mining operations, as well as potentially data centres.

Macquarie has recently run the ruler over the company and has reaffirmed its outperform rating on the company’s shares with a positive share price target, which we’ll get to shortly.

Firstly, let’s have a closer look at the company’s most recent production report.

The company in April said it had shipped 48.4 million tonnes of iron ore in the third quarter, bringing the total amount shipped over nine months to 148.7 million tonnes, up 4% over the same period the previous year.

Fortescue Metals and Operations Chief Executive Officer Dino Otranto said at the time:

We delivered a solid quarter, contributing to record shipments of 148.7 million tonnes for the nine months to March. That reflects a significant effort from the team right across the business. At the same time, we’re getting on with decarbonising our operations and we’re already seeing the benefits. Given volatility in global energy markets, there’s never been a clearer reason why this matters. For us, it’s about strengthening energy security, lowering costs and eliminating emissions. The build-out of our green grid is well underway, with 630MW of solar and 133MW of wind generation under construction. As we bring this online, we’re fundamentally reshaping how we power our operations by cutting our reliance on fossil fuels, at a time when energy supply is increasingly uncertain.    

Meanwhile, the class action brought against the company relates to allegations including sexual harassment and sex discrimination.

Fortescue shares still looking like good value

Macquarie said it was expecting Fortescue to ship 53 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, and is also expecting the company to release an optimisation study in the next few months.

Macquarie said:

We expect an in line result at the quarterly, with FY27 guidance the key item of focus; we could see the first signs of the Hematite over magnetite strategy come through in volume guidance, with the outcomes of the portfolio optimisation study potentially occurring later in the year.

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $21 on Fortescue shares, compared to $18.47 currently.

Including the company’s 6.5% dividend yield, this would equate to a total shareholder return of 17%.

Morgan Stanley has a dissenting view on Fortescue shares, with a sell rating and a price target of $17.25 on the company.

The post How high does Macquarie think Fortescue shares will go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• China’s CPI and PPI data drops today. Here is the potential impact for these ASX shares
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• How Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP shares stacked up in June
• How much do I need in superannuation to receive $5,500 per month in passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a rough few months for Dateline Resources Ltd (ASX: DTR) shareholders.

But the ASX mining stock is surging on Monday after receiving some welcome support from the US Government.

At the time of writing, the Dateline Resources share price is up 33.33% to 18 cents.

Despite today’s huge gain, the stock remains down around 20% in 2026. However, Dateline shares are now up roughly 98% since this time last year.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest announcement.

US Government backs Dateline’s position

The support comes from the US Department of Justice (DOJ), which has filed documents opposing a legal challenge surrounding Colosseum.

The Colosseum project is Dateline’s 100%-owned gold and rare earths project in California, which includes a historic open-pit mine.

The case was brought by the National Parks Conservation Association, which is challenging an April 2025 letter recognising Dateline’s existing rights at the project.

According to Dateline, the DOJ believes the current mine plan remains valid and still allows work to take place at Colosseum.

The DOJ also argues the National Park Service letter didn’t grant a new approval. Instead, it says the letter just confirmed the legal position of the existing mine plan.

Dateline said the filing supports the position it has taken throughout the case.

What is the legal dispute about?

The National Parks Conservation Association wants the court to overturn the National Park Service’s April 2025 decision without recognising the company’s mining rights.

However, the DOJ believes the group is unlikely to succeed because the letter did not amount to a final government decision that could be challenged in court.

The department also says laws introduced in 1994 protected the project’s existing rights, including its approved mine plan. A long break in mining doesn’t automatically cancel those rights.

The US Government has also pushed back against claims of immediate environmental damage.

It noted the area has already been disturbed by previous mining, while access to the nearby Clark Mountains remains available by another route.

The DOJ also said concerns about future noise, dust and vegetation removal relate to work that may not even happen.

Foolish takeaway

The DOJ filing is welcome news for Dateline and gives the company more support in the legal dispute over Colosseum.

It backs Dateline’s view that the existing mine plan remains valid and no new federal approval is required. However, the court still has the final say.

Colosseum is a major part of the company’s future. Its bankable feasibility study (BFS) outlined a 10.4-year mine and estimated a pre-tax value of US$785 million.

The study also produced an internal rate of return (IRR) of 49.5%, which is a measure of the project’s expected profitability.

Building the mine is expected to cost US$249 million, plus a US$25 million contingency.

The post Why this ASX mining stock is rocketing 33% after a US Government boost appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Up 44% this week, guess which ASX 300 stock is surging again today on big rare earths news

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX), more commonly known as SpaceX, again fell below the company’s $150 opening price over the weekend as opinions diverge on where the stock will end up.

SpaceX shares still in the black

The historically large SpaceX initial public offering priced the company’s shares at US$135 apiece, so those who got in before the company listed are still sitting on gains and would have made a tidy profit if they sold out at the US$225.64 high achieved shortly after listing.

The shares have generally drifted lower since that peak was reached, however, and closed Friday’s session at US$145.30, not far off their lowest mark of US$145.07.

This means that almost everyone who bought on-market would be under water on their investment currently.

The stock was included in the NASDAQ 100 index on Tuesday last week, however this failed to significantly bolster the stock.  

So where to from here for SpaceX shares? The Tradingview website has collated the views of 29 analysts with price predictions on SpaceX shares, with the average share price forecast coming out at US$242.21.

However this is distorted by one analyst prediction of a price of US$800 per share on SpaceX shares.

Perhaps more useful is the fact that 24 analysts have rated the stock a strong buy, three a buy, while one rates it a sell and one a strong sell.

Motley Fool US contributor Manali Pradhan has crunched the numbers on SpaceX’s 2027 revenue range and forward sales multiple to come up with an implied market capitalisation, and says US$220 per share is a reasonable base case estimate.

As she wrote:

Analysts expect SpaceX’s 2027 revenue to range from $54.8 billion to $85 billion, with an average estimate of $72.4 billion. Applying a forward sales multiple of 38.5 to 41 times to the 2027 base case revenue estimate yields an implied market capitalization of about $2.79 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that points to a share price in the range of $213 to $227 at the end of 2026.

Long-term vision on SpaceX shares needed

The difficulty in valuing SpaceX stems from the fact that of its three divisions, only one – the Starlink “connectivity” division is profitable.

The rocket launch and AI divisions are still burning money, with investors needing to buy into the promise that they will in time turn a profit.

The company’s initial public offer prospectus stated that for the first three months of 2026, the Space division lost US$662 million, the AI division lost US$2.47 billion, and the connectivity division made a profit of US$1.19 billion.  

The company believes its business opportunity is huge however, saying in the prospectus, “We believe that space represents the largest economic frontier in human history”, and suggesting that they will be building AI infrastructure in space, powered by the “virtually limitless” power of the sun, for the benefit of mankind.

The post SpaceX shares continue to fall. Where will they end up? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX share WAM Microcap Ltd (ASX: WMI) is one of the few stocks with a dividend yield of more than 10% that I’d be willing to own for the long-term.

I love passive income, but the higher the yield the less likely it is to be sustainable because the business is paying out such a large part of its profit each year.

However, WAM Microcap is a bit different to a regular business that sells products or services because it’s a listed investment company (LIC). In other words, it buys and sells shares to make money for shareholders.

It’s not looking within the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) for opportunities though. It’s searching for the most exciting undervalued growth opportunities in the Australian microcap market.

Let’s explore why it’s such a compelling choice for dividends.

LICs need to produce returns

For a LIC to pay sustainable, large dividends, they need to generate good investment returns.

If a LIC’s portfolio generates a double-digit net return over a financial year, then it has essentially done enough to pay a 10% grossed-up dividend yield (including the franking credits).

LICs are not just passive index funds. They can invest very differently to an index, both in terms of the shares they buy and the prices they buy and sell at.

WAM Microcap’s hunting ground represents an area of the market that few fund managers look. There can be some excellent opportunities at the small end of the market because they can be mispriced for their potential and the business can deliver a lot of profit growth from a small base.

The ASX share’s portfolio has delivered an average return per year of 14.4% since inception in June 2017, before fees, expenses and taxes. That’s despite this decade being a tricky period for small-cap shares.  

I believe WAM Microcap’s investment team have the ability to continue making good returns to fund future dividends.

Large dividend yield

WAM Microcap’s board of directors has provided guidance that the business plans to pay an annual dividend per share of 10.7 cents for FY26. That translates into a grossed-up[ dividend yield of around 10.5%, including franking credits.

It has increased its annual dividend per share each year since FY18 (when it started paying dividends), aside from FY24 when it maintained the payout. That’s a strong record of consistency for investors.

The business has a profit reserve of 49.8 cents per share of profit which it built in previous years. That means it could pay the same dividend level for four and a half years without needing to earn any investment returns.

I think Aussies are missing out if they don’t have exposure to small-cap shares for both the diversification and potential returns. WAM Microcap can provide that exposure, along with a great dividend yield level.

There are also other ASX shares that could make great investments today to own for the long-term.

The post This 10% dividend yield stock is one I’m comfortable holding for the long-term appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Wam Microcap. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) has been one of the most talked-about defence technology shares on the ASX in the 2020s.

That attention is understandable. The company sits in a market shaped by drones, electronic warfare, national security, and the growing need to protect military and civilian assets from aerial threats.

And after a major share price decline, investors face a difficult question. Are DroneShield shares a buy, hold, or sell?

DroneShield shares have fallen hard

DroneShield shares are trading around $2.29 at the time of writing.

That leaves the stock down about 65% from its 52-week high.

A fall of that size can make investors nervous, especially in a growth share where expectations have been high. It also changes the valuation discussion.

According to CommSec consensus estimates, DroneShield is forecast to generate earnings per share of 2.6 cents in FY26, 4.3 cents in FY27, and 7.4 cents in FY28.

Based on the current share price, that puts the stock on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 88 times FY26 earnings, 53 times FY27 earnings, and 31 times FY28 earnings.

The near-term multiples are still high despite the share price decline.

But the FY28 valuation does not look excessive to me if DroneShield can keep scaling and become a larger, more profitable defence technology business.

Why I would buy

I think DroneShield shares are a buy for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

The reason is the market opportunity.

Drones have changed the way governments, defence forces, airports, prisons, critical infrastructure operators, and security agencies think about protection.

They can be used for surveillance, disruption, smuggling, attacks, and battlefield operations. That creates demand for systems that can detect, track, identify, and respond to drone threats quickly.

DroneShield is trying to become a trusted provider in that market.

I also like that the business is not only about hardware. Increasing software revenue could improve the quality of the revenue base over time, especially if customers keep paying for upgrades, subscriptions, support, data, and system improvements.

That could make the business more valuable than a simple equipment supplier.

What investors need to watch

DroneShield still has plenty to prove. The company needs to keep winning contracts, delivering products, expanding capacity, and turning demand into profits. Defence customers can take time to make decisions, and contract timing can create uneven revenue.

Competition is another risk. Counter-drone technology is attracting attention globally, and larger defence companies may push harder into the market.

There is also valuation risk to consider. Even after a 65% fall, DroneShield is still priced for significant growth. If earnings disappoint, the share price could fall further.

That is why position sizing is important. I would view DroneShield as a speculative growth share rather than a core blue-chip holding.

Foolish Takeaway

I would call DroneShield shares a buy, but only for investors who can handle volatility.

The share price fall has made the valuation more reasonable, particularly if the company can deliver the growth currently expected over the next few years.

The counter-drone market appears to have a long runway, and DroneShield has a strong position in a field that is becoming more important to defence and security customers.

There will be bumps along the way. Contract timing, execution, competition, and valuation all need watching. Still, for patient investors willing to accept the risks, I think DroneShield shares are worth buying after this heavy fall.

The post Down 65%: Are DroneShield shares a buy, hold, or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A $500,000 ASX share portfolio could provide a very attractive passive income stream.

But the amount investors receive each year can vary significantly depending on the dividend yield they target and the types of shares they own.

A portfolio built around lower-yielding growth shares may produce less income today, while a higher-yielding portfolio may come with extra risks if the payouts are stretched.

That is why I think investors need to look beyond the headline yield and think carefully about the balance between income, quality, and growth.

So, how much could a $500,000 ASX share portfolio realistically pay in dividends?

Understanding the yield

A dividend yield shows how much income a share or portfolio pays each year compared with its value.

For an ASX dividend portfolio, the yield investors target can make a big difference to the income they receive. It can also change the type of shares they end up owning.

A 4% yield may sound modest, but it could come from businesses with stronger balance sheets, steadier earnings, or better long-term growth prospects. A 6% yield can produce more income upfront, although it may push investors toward shares with slower growth, higher debt, or less reliable payouts.

That is why I think 5% can be a good middle ground. It is high enough to generate meaningful passive income, while still leaving room to focus on quality and diversification.

On a $500,000 portfolio, a 4% yield would generate around $20,000 a year in dividends before tax and franking credits. While at 5%, the annual income would rise to about $25,000, and at 6% it would be around $30,000.

For me, the 5% option feels like a sensible target for many income investors because it balances income today with the need to own ASX dividend shares that can keep performing over time.

What could sit in the portfolio?

I would want a mix of defensive dividend shares, property income, and businesses that can grow dividends over time.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) could play a useful role because connectivity is woven into daily life. Mobile data, payments, work, entertainment, and communication all rely on reliable networks.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) is another defensive name to consider. Grocery demand is more stable than many discretionary categories, which can help support dividends through different economic conditions.

For property income, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN) could be attractive because its portfolio is focused on everyday-needs retail, including assets linked to supermarkets, pharmacies, and essential services.

I would also leave room for dividend growth. Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI) and Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) are more growth-focused retail shares, so they can be more volatile. But if their earnings continue to grow, their dividends could become more valuable over time.

Why growth still counts

Ideally, a dividend portfolio should grow as the years pass.

If a $500,000 portfolio grew by 5% per annum over 10 years, while dividends were banked separately, it could increase to around $815,000.

That larger portfolio could then produce much higher income. A 4% yield on $815,000 would generate around $32,600 a year, while a 5% yield would generate around $40,750 a year.

I think that shows why capital growth can be so meaningful for passive income investors.

Foolish takeaway

A $500,000 ASX share portfolio could produce a compelling income stream if it is built carefully.

I think a 5% yield is a sensible target because it could generate about $25,000 a year today while still leaving room to focus on quality, diversification, and dividend growth.

The best dividend portfolios can pay income now and become more valuable over time. That combination is what can turn a strong ASX portfolio into a much larger passive income stream in the years ahead.

The post How much could a $500,000 ASX share portfolio pay in dividends? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX consumer staples shares are quietly surging while the rest of the market stalls. Here is why.
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• 3 strong ASX passive income shares I’d buy now
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Lovisa, and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The turnaround in CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares has been sharp.

From the nine-year low struck on 3 June 2026, CSL has surged approximately 35% to $122.89.

The question is not whether the bounce has happened. It clearly has.

The question is what is driving it, whether those drivers are durable, and what the August FY26 result will need to show to confirm this is more than a sentiment swing.

What has driven the 35% rebound in CSL shares

The honest answer is that the recovery has been driven primarily by sector rotation and valuation recognition rather than new positive company-specific news.

Healthcare was the worst-performing sector of all eleven ASX 200 market sectors in FY26. The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) fell 39% over twelve months to hit a nine-year low on 3 June.

When a sector falls that far that fast, it tends to attract bargain-hunting institutional investors at the start of a new financial year. This is even more true when those same investors have just locked in large profits in resources and energy shares.

The underlying business has not changed materially in the six weeks since 3 June.

Management’s FY26 guidance of approximately US$15.2 billion in revenue and US$3.1 billion in NPATA on a constant currency basis remains unchanged.

The operational challenges, including US immunoglobulin supply constraints and China albumin pricing pressure, remain the same.

The case that the recovery is here to stay

At the 3 June low of approximately $91, CSL was trading at approximately 11 times forecast FY26 earnings. This was a valuation not seen in more than fifteen years for a business of this quality.

At $122.89, CSL trades at approximately 15.2 times forecast FY26 earnings, still a fraction of the 30 to 50 times multiple it commanded at its peak.

Morgans retains a buy rating with a price target of $147.59, implying upside of approximately 20% from the current price.

To support this thesis, management has also pointed to stronger Behring division revenue growth in the second half of FY26. Additionally, management expects moderately stronger-than-expected Seqirus vaccine performance.

These are all early signs that the operating recovery is beginning.

The case that it is just a temporary bounce

The more cautious reading is equally legitimate.

Eight of eighteen analysts covering CSL have a buy rating, while ten have a hold.

That split reflects the uncertainty around today’s share price.

Indeed, CSL has delivered a series of earnings disappointments over the past eighteen months. Each has been framed by management as temporary before proving more persistent than expected.

The FY26 result, due on 19 August, will be the most important test of whether the recovery has earnings support or is simply a valuation-driven sentiment swing.

If August delivers another round of guidance cuts, the 35% bounce could reverse quickly.

What the August result needs to show for CSL shares

Three things would confirm the recovery is real.

First, Behring division revenue growth in the second half of FY26 that confirms rather than falls short of management’s guidance.

Second, evidence that the immunoglobulin supply and pricing situation is moving in the right direction.

Third, confidence from the new CEO, expected to be named before the result, that the operational challenges have a visible resolution path.

If those three conditions are met on 19 August, CSL’s recovery from $91 to $122.89 will look like the early innings of something more sustained.

If they are not, investors who bought the bounce may face a difficult reassessment.

Foolish takeaway

CSL shares are up 35% since early June to $122.89, but remain down 49% over twelve months.

The recovery may be here to stay, reflecting an oversold valuation at the June lows.

It may also partly be a rotation bounce, driven by institutional new-year rebalancing rather than company-specific positive news.

The August FY26 result will separate those two explanations cleanly.

Until then, the honest answer to whether the recovery is real is: we do not yet know.

The post CSL shares are up 35% since early June. Is the recovery here to stay? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has been choppy and directionless for several weeks.

After the strong start to FY27 in the first week of July, the broader market has stalled around the 8,800 point level as investors weigh renewed Middle East tensions, rate uncertainty, and the approaching August reporting season.

Beneath that flat headline, however, something interesting is happening.

S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples (ASX: XSJ) shares are quietly surging. This sector has been one of the best-performing pockets of the ASX in recent sessions as investors rotate into defensive names ahead of earnings season volatility.

Here are three ASX consumer staples shares benefiting from this upswing.

Woolworths: resilience in a cautious consumer environment

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) has been one of the quiet achievers of the past month.

The company provides something most ASX shares cannot guarantee: recurring revenue regardless of economic conditions.

Australians keep buying groceries, cleaning products, and personal care items through every cycle.

This earnings visibility is what institutional investors rotate toward when uncertainty rises.

Catapult Wealth’s Blake Halligan recently assessed Woolworths’ defensive credentials, noting:

“Food retail sales were up 5.9% in the third quarter of 2026 when compared to the prior corresponding period.”

Coles Group: consistent dividends and a reporting season catalyst

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) has been rising alongside Woolworths, benefiting from the same defensive rotation while adding its own catalyst.

Brokers retained a positive view on Coles this week, following a period where the supermarket’s competitive positioning had been a source of investor uncertainty.

Coles pays a consistent, partially franked dividend twice per year, giving income investors a meaningful yield alongside the stability of essential retail earnings.

The approach of August reporting season adds a specific near-term catalyst.

Coles’ FY26 full-year result will give investors the most current picture of how effectively management has navigated cost inflation, loyalty program investment, and competitive pricing pressure over the past twelve months.

Bega Cheese: the defensive with a turnaround story

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) is the least conventional of the three but arguably the most interesting from a value perspective.

The company is Australia’s largest branded consumer dairy company, with a portfolio that includes Bega, Vegemite, and Farmers Union brands.

Like Woolworths and Coles, Bega benefits from the essential nature of its product categories.

But unlike the supermarkets, Bega carries an additional earnings recovery story on top of the defensive characteristics.

The company has been navigating a difficult period of input cost inflation and margin compression over the past two years.

Investors are buying after the company lifted its profit outlook. This has sent shares higher from growing confidence that the earnings recovery management has been guiding toward is beginning to materialise.

The combination of an essential product portfolio, a recovering earnings trajectory, and a market environment rewarding defensives makes Bega one of the more interesting propositions in the sector right now.

Why ASX consumer staples shares are having their moment

The rotation into consumer staples reflects three specific forces converging in July 2026.

First, investors who rode materials and healthcare to strong FY26 and early FY27 gains are taking profits and redeploying into lower-volatility names.

Second, renewed Middle East escalation and its impact on oil prices is raising the spectre of further RBA rate hikes. This has historically favoured defensive sectors over rate-sensitive growth names.

Third, August reporting season is six weeks away. Investors are positioning themselves into companies with more predictable earnings outcome.

Consumer staples tick all three boxes: lower volatility, insulated from oil and rate sensitivity, and with relatively predictable earnings that reduce binary outcome risk.

Foolish takeaway for ASX consumer staples shares

Woolworths, Coles, and Bega Cheese are each different versions of the same defensive investment thesis.

The broader market is stalling. Consumer staples are moving.

For investors who want to reduce portfolio volatility heading into August reporting season while maintaining exposure to quality, income-producing businesses, the current rotation into consumer staples shares is worth paying attention to.

The post ASX consumer staples shares are quietly surging while the rest of the market stalls. Here is why. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much could a $500,000 ASX share portfolio pay in dividends?
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $50k per year in passive income?
• 10 fantastic ASX shares to buy for FY27
• 9 ASX 200 shares with reiterated buy calls this week
• Which is the best buy, Coles shares or Wesfarmers shares?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX lithium shares ran extraordinarily hard in FY26.

Spodumene prices surged approximately 196% over the twelve months to June 2026. This powered ASX lithium producers to among the strongest returns in the market.

Then came June.

Spodumene prices fell by around 12% in June, triggering a sharp, rapid reversal across the sector.

The question now is whether the cooling is temporary or the beginning of a more sustained retreat.

PLS Group: The largest ASX lithium share takes the hardest hit

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) has had the most dramatic ride of the three.

PLS shares reached a two-and-a-half-year high of $6.38 in May before retreating significantly since then.

The pullback reflects two forces operating at the same time.

Softer lithium futures prices flowed directly through to earnings expectations, while investors who rode PLS from below $2 a year ago have been taking profits after an extraordinary run.

Importantly, the underlying business remains solid.

PLS reported underlying EBITDA surging 241% to $253 million in the first half of FY26. Encouragingly, EBITDA margins expanded from 17% to 41%.

UBS downgraded PLS from buy to neutral with a $4.95 price target, reflecting the view that the easy gains from the initial recovery have been captured.

Liontown: Ramp-up risk compounds the price fall

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) carries the highest risk of the three because it is still ramping up its Kathleen Valley mine in Western Australia.

A 12% fall in the spodumene price compounds operational risk rather than simply reducing a profit margin on an established operation.

Liontown fell 30.2% in June to $1.69, the sharpest decline of the three.

Despite the sell-off, the longer-term picture remains positive for believers in Kathleen Valley.

UBS retained its buy rating on Liontown and raised its target to $2.20, citing the quality of the deposit and the improving ramp-up trajectory.

The current share price sits comfortably below that target, implying meaningful upside if lithium prices stabilise and the ramp-up continues on track.

IGO: Diversification provides some insulation

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) is the most operationally diversified of the three ASX lithium shares.

Lithium exposure is diversified through its share of Greenbushes and the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery alongside nickel production from Nova.

That diversification provides some insulation from the spodumene price cooling that hit pure-play producers hardest.

IGO fell 23.1% in June to $7.37, a meaningful decline but less severe than Liontown’s.

The Kwinana Refinery showed strong improvement in the most recent quarter.

Production increased to 3,047 tonnes in Q3 FY26, up from 2,120 tonnes in Q2. This represented 51% of nameplate capacity, while Greenbushes delivered an EBITDA margin of 75% in the same period.

IGO’s positive operational trajectory is important because it demonstrates the lithium division is improving regardless of short-term spodumene pricing.

The bigger picture for ASX lithium shares

The June pullback is a reminder that lithium stocks are commodity stocks.

They are not immune to price cycles. A 12% monthly fall in spodumene is a direct headwind regardless of how strong the longer-term EV demand story is.

UBS previously raised its lithium price forecast by 74%, forecasting spodumene reaching US$3,131 per tonne over the medium term, well above current levels.

The structural demand drivers, including electric vehicle adoption and battery energy storage growth, have not changed.

But until that demand shows up more consistently in the monthly price data, volatility will remain the defining feature of this sector.

Foolish Takeaway

Lithium prices cooled sharply in June, and PLS, Liontown, and IGO all paid the price.

Each is still materially higher than twelve months ago, but June’s falls are a timely reminder that commodity leverage works in both directions.

For investors who believe the long-term lithium demand story remains intact, the recent pullback may be creating a more attractive entry point than was available at May’s peaks for these ASX lithium shares.

The post Lithium prices are cooling. Here’s what that means for these ASX lithium shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price is in focus today after the company decided not to match Genesis Minerals Ltd’s (ASX: GMD) rival bid for Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU), and expects to receive a break fee of approximately A$50.7 million.

What did Regis Resources report?

• Regis will not submit a counteroffer to Genesis Minerals’ proposal for Vault Minerals.
• Regis expects to receive a break fee of about A$50.7 million from Vault.
• The company holds a debt-free balance sheet with $1.2 billion in cash and bullion.
• Strong free cash flow generation continues across its gold operating portfolio.
• Recently reinstated Ore Reserves at McPhillamys gold project following a completed Pre-Feasibility Study.

What else do investors need to know?

Regis Resources emphasised that its disciplined approach to acquisitions remains unchanged. The board determined that the terms needed to match Genesis’ offer for Vault Minerals did not meet its value and return thresholds.

By not raising its bid, Regis remains well-funded, allowing the company to focus on its current portfolio and organic growth pipeline. The recently reinstated Ore Reserves at McPhillamys mark a significant milestone for one of its development projects.

What’s next for Regis Resources?

Looking ahead, Regis is committed to developing its established portfolio of gold operations. The company continues to advance the McPhillamys gold project, as recently outlined in its Pre-Feasibility Study.

Management reaffirmed their strategy to prioritise disciplined growth and maintain a robust balance sheet, positioning Regis for future opportunities in the gold sector while focusing on delivering value to shareholders.

Regis Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Regis Resources shares have risen 44%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Regis Resources steps back from Vault Minerals bid, secures break fee appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.