Tag: Stock pick

Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) shareholders haven’t had much to smile about lately.

The property giant has fallen around 29% in 2026, and Friday is adding a bit more pain, with the shares down 3.91% to $4.055.

In addition, CEO Tarun Gupta has sold a number of Stockland securities on market this week.

The transaction is worth around $3.8 million, which is enough to catch the eye given how far the shares have already fallen.

But before investors read too much into it, I think there are a couple of things worth knowing.

Why did the CEO sell?

According to recent filing, Gupta sold a total of 874,721 securities on 7 September at an average price of $4.319.

Stockland said the sale was made to meet tax liabilities, which makes the move a little less concerning in my view.

Gupta also still has plenty of exposure to the company. He personally holds 85,493 Stockland securities, while the Sundara Family Trust owns another 1.86 million. He also has around 1.52 million performance rights.

But what caught my attention even more is what some of the other directors have been doing.

Bob Johnston bought 90,000 securities at $4.57 on 31 August, while Kate McKenzie, Christopher Lawton, and Penny Winn have also made smaller on-market purchases since late August.

What about the business?

Stockland’s FY26 numbers were actually pretty solid.

Funds from operations increased 10.4% to $892 million, while statutory profit rose 20.2% to $994 million.

FFO per security reached 36.9 cents, while net tangible assets increased to $4.39 per security.

At $4.055, Stockland shares are now trading below that NTA figure. They have also given back all of the 12% jump that followed last month’s full-year result.

The company also finished FY26 with gearing of 22.7%, while strong residential settlement volumes helped lift development earnings.

Of course, the market is forward-looking, and higher bond yields and interest rate concerns remain a headache for property stocks.

Would I be worried?

Not really.

I mean a $3.8 million CEO sale is always going to attract attention, especially when the share price is already falling.

But the stated reason was tax liabilities, and Gupta still has significant exposure to the company.

Furthermore, a few of the other directors have also been buying.

Overall, brokers remain positive. TipRanks shows 6 buy ratings and 1 hold, with an average price target of $5.30.

That implies around 31% upside from today’s price.

The post Stockland shares are sinking 4%. Is this $3.8 million CEO sale a warning sign? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Home values just fell for a fifth straight month. Which ASX shares are most exposed?
• Are Stockland shares a buy after its FY26 results announcement?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Rate rises have finally caught house prices. What does that means for ASX property shares?
• Stockland profit up 20% as development surges: FY26 results and outlook

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares have given investors a pretty wild ride over the past year.

The stock is down another 2.94% to $1.65 on Friday, leaving it close to its 52-week low.

But after such a big fall, I think this is starting to look like one of the more interesting ASX turnaround stories to watch.

Here’s why.

Short sellers have piled in

The latest short-selling data showed 15.38% of DroneShield shares were sold short, making it the second most shorted stock on the ASX.

That’s a huge bet against the company.

Yes, short sellers clearly have plenty to point to.

DroneShield reported a $12.4 million underlying EBITDA loss in the first-half, while its statutory loss came in at $32.2 million.

The shares also look expensive on traditional earnings measures, with profits still small compared with the company’s $1.5 billion valuation.

But this is where I think things get interesting.

If DroneShield keeps delivering stronger revenue and winning new orders, some short sellers may start heading for the exits.

That could add another source of buying demand if sentiment starts turning.

Sales are still moving fast

The share price might look ugly, but the sales numbers tell a very different story.

First-half revenue jumped 74% to $125.8 million, while committed FY26 revenue recently increased to $251 million from $240 million.

That already puts DroneShield inside management’s full-year revenue outlook of $250 million to $270 million.

There is also another $46 million of committed revenue sitting in FY27 and beyond.

And I think the new product pipeline is worth watching too.

DroneShield’s first RfRecon order will be deployed to an existing Western European military customer before the end of the year.

I like seeing new products move from launch to customer orders this quickly because it gives the company another way to keep growing.

The balance sheet gives me another reason to stay positive, with around $180 million in cash at the end of June and no debt.

Could DroneShield shares really double?

I think they can.

A move from $1.65 to $3.30 would mean a 100% gain, which sounds huge at first glance.

But even at that price, DroneShield shares would still be more than 50% below their 52-week high.

The big thing I want to see now is more of that revenue growth flowing through to profits.

If that starts happening over the next few reporting periods, I think investors could become much more bullish on the stock.

The post DroneShield shares are down 75%. Could this huge short bet backfire? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Should I buy DroneShield shares following today’s trading update?
• What are the most shorted ASX shares on the market right now?
• Top 3 ASX defence shares to buy right now
• 3 reasons to buy DroneShield shares after their 74% decline
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 1.3% to 8,708.5 points on Friday.

Meanwhile, brokers have lifted their ratings on several ASX shares this week. 

Let’s review. 

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star Resources share price is $21.59, down 4.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 gold share has fallen 5%.

UBS upgraded Northern Star shares to a buy rating on Wednesday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $24.25 to $29.40.

This implies a potential 36% upside ahead.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN)

The HomeCo Daily Needs REIT share price is $1.09, down 1.4% today.

Over the past month, this real estate investment trust (REIT) has fallen 16%.

UBS upgraded HomeCo Daily Needs REIT shares to a buy rating yesterday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $1.30.

This implies a potential 19% upside ahead.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

The Whitehaven Coal share price is $8.70, down 1.6% today.

Over the past month, this ASX coal share has ascended 13%.

JP Morgan upgraded Whitehaven Coal shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $8.20 to $9.30.

This indicates potential capital gains of 7% over the next year. 

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

The Regis Resources share price is $7.56, down 4.9% today.

Over the past month, the gold mining stock has lifted 1.6%.

UBS upgraded Regis Resources shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $8 to $8.90.

This suggests a potential 17% upside ahead.

Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)

The Bapcor share price is 81 cents, up 0.3% today.

Over the past month, this ASX consumer discretionary share has lost 92% of its market valuation.

Morgans upgraded Bapcor shares to a hold recommendation with an 88-cent target.

This implies a potential 10% upside ahead.

Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM)

The Ora Banda Mining share price is $1.52, down 5% today.

Over the past month, the ASX gold mining share has risen 11%.

UBS upgraded Ora Banda Mining shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $1.80 to $1.95.

This indicates potential capital gains of 28% over the next year. 

ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB)

The ARB Corporation share price is $18.42, down 0.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX retail share has fallen 9%.

Canaccord Genuity upgraded ARB shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $21.80 to $25.40.

This suggests a potential 38% upside ahead.

Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK)

The Alkane Resources share price is $1.82, down 3.9% today.

Over the past month, Alkane Resources shares have risen 14%.

UBS upgraded the ASX gold and antimony miner to a buy rating this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $2 to $2.35.

This suggests potential capital growth of 29% over the next year. 

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

The NAB share price is $38.50, up 2% today.

Over the past month, NAB shares have fallen 7%.

Goldman Sachs upgraded the ASX 200 bank share to a hold rating yesterday.

The broker raised its price target from $38.75 to $39.75.

This suggests a potential 17% upside ahead.

The post 9 ASX shares just upgraded by the experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• CEO sells $3.9 million of shares. Should investors be worried?
• Down 16%, could this $2 billion activist bet wake up Northern Star shares?
• Where to invest $5,000 into ASX dividend shares
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 dives to a 6-week low. What’s behind today’s sell-off?

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ARB Corporation, Goldman Sachs Group, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ARB Corporation and HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) shares are 1.3% lower at 8,895.6 points on Friday.

Brokers cut their ratings on several ASX All Ords shares this week.

Let’s take a look.

Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM)

The Sims share price is $24.53, down 3.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX materials share has fallen 7%.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Sims shares to a sell rating on Monday.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $24 to $22.

This implies a potential 10% downside ahead.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

The Elders share price is $6.37, up 1.8% today.

Over the past month, this ASX consumer staples share has increased 13%.

Bell Potter downgraded Elders shares to a hold rating yesterday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $6.45 to $6.70.

This suggest a potential 5% upside ahead.

The broker said:

Following the recent recovery in the share price we are moving our rating from Buy to Hold.

Investments in Delta and SYSMOD are the largest drivers of near term growth, however, we see the large livestock tailwinds the agency business has benefited from the past two years facing more difficult comparisons moving forward.

We are cognisant cattle prices no longer carry the value arbitrage they once did to US90CL indicators, trading at a premium for the first time since early CY23.

Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR)

The Charter Hall Retail REIT share price is $3.68, down 1.3% today.

Over the past month, this real estate investment trust (REIT) has fallen 13%.

UBS downgraded Charter Hall Retail REIT shares to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $4.65 to $4.20.

This implies a potential 14% upside ahead.

Dyno Nobel Ltd (ASX: DNL)

The Dyno Nobel share price is $3.92, down 2.4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX materials share has risen 0.4%.

Jarden downgraded Dyno Nobel shares to a hold rating this week.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $3.80.

This indicates a potential 3% downside over the next year. 

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

The Tabcorp share price is 92 cents, down 3.2% today.

Over the past month, this ASX consumer discretionary share has risen 1.1%.

Morgans downgraded Tabcorp shares from buy to accumulate.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $1.02.

This suggests a potential 14% upside ahead.

Morgans said:

We gained encouragement from TAH’s FY26 result, with the company responding to a modest growth environment (+1%) with disciplined cost control, while softer D&A helped underlying NPAT come in +6% ahead of market expectations and broadly in line with our estimates.

Other highlights for us included strong customer retention following the introduction of the new retail commercial model, the rollout of next-generation terminals, and a strong sports performance through the FIFA World Cup. 

EchoIQ Ltd (ASX: EIQ)

The EchoIQ share price is 50 cents, down 12% today.

Over the past month, this ASX tech share has crashed 68%.

Bell Potter downgraded EchoIQ shares from speculative hold to speculative sell this week.

The broker slashed its 12-month price target from $1.75 to 30 cents.

This suggests potential further downside of 40% over the next year. 

The post 6 ASX shares downgraded by brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Morgans says these ASX shares could return 48% to 95%
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• This ASX 300 stock has rebounded 30% from yearly lows – can it keep rallying?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• EchoIQ shares just crashed 48%. What happens now?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Charter Hall Retail REIT. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is taking another hit on Friday, with investors facing one of the weakest stretches of the year.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 1.28% to 8,706 points and trading around its session low.

That follows losses of 1.03% on Thursday, 0.11% on Wednesday, and 1% on Tuesday, meaning the ASX 200 has now fallen more than 3% in the past 4 sessions.

The rebound from Thursday’s low of 8,742 points didn’t last long either.

The index has now effectively wiped out its gains for 2026 and is around 6% below its 52-week high of 9,267 points.

So, what’s worrying investors?

Oil, bond yields, and rate hikes

There is plenty happening at once, but rising oil prices and interest rate expectations are doing a lot of the damage.

Brent crude has jumped to US$107.87 a barrel as the conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt energy markets.

That has added to inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher around the world.

Australia’s 3-year government bond yield climbed above 5% on Friday, reaching its highest level in around 15 years.

And rate expectations have moved quickly as well.

The RBA cash rate is currently at 4.35%, but markets are now pricing a high chance of another 25-basis point increase at the 29 September meeting.

Citi now reportedly expects hikes in both September and November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%.

Miners are getting hit hard

The selling is widespread across the ASX 200, with 151 stocks falling, 47 rising, and just 2 unchanged.

Resources stocks are tanking after copper prices dropped more than 4% following reports that the US has delayed a decision on tariffs on refined copper.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 4.34% to $60.69, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have fallen 3.54% to $168.30.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are also down 3.66% to $21.715, and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) has dropped 4.56% to $13.695.

What should investors watch next?

The big question now is whether Friday’s sell-off starts to settle down or carries into next week.

Investors will also be watching US inflation data due later today, which could influence expectations for another Fed Reserve rate rise.

I’ll also be watching whether the weakness remains concentrated in miners or starts to spread into other parts of the market.

The post ASX 200 tumbles to a 2-month low and wipes out its 2026 gains. What on earth is going on? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much should I have in my superannuation by age 53?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Is the ASX heading for a stock market crash?
• Megaport shares have surged 10% in a week to $18. I think they could hit $25

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are both marching higher today, even as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) drops another 0.9%.

While the broader index is under pressure amid the re-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, investors are bidding up the ASX 200 energy stocks as oil prices continue to climb.

Brent crude oil topped US$109 per barrel overnight. A barrel of Brent is currently trading for US$108.32, according to data from Bloomberg. That’s up 19.7% from US$90.50 per barrel on 1 September.

That’s today’s price action for you.

But if you’d invested $10,000 in Santos and Woodside shares three years ago, would you have beaten the 20% returns delivered by the ASX 200 since 15 September 2023?

Woodside shares endure long slide before a rebound

Three years ago, when Brent crude oil was on an upward trend at US$94 per barrel, you could have picked up Woodside shares for $38.39 apiece.

So, for $10,000, you could have bought 260 shares in the ASX oil and gas giant. From there, however, the stock was in a lengthy downward trend through to April 2025, when it commenced a strong rebound.

At time of writing, shares are changing hands for $33.14 each, down 13.7% in three years.

Though, thanks to the passive income Woodside pays, the losses are much less.

Here’s what I mean.

If you owned Woodside shares for the last three years, you would have received (or shortly will receive) the past six fully-franked Woodside dividends, totalling a rounded $5.24 a share.

Woodside stock traded ex-dividend on 3 September. Eligible stockholders can expect that passive income payout to land in their bank account on 25 September.

Now, if we add that $5.24 back into today’s share price, then the accumulated value of the Woodside shares you bought three years ago is worth $38.38 today.

And the 260 shares you bought for $10,000 are worth an accumulated $9,979.

So, how about Santos?

Santos shares lead the three-year race

While not shooting the lights out, Santos outperformed Woodside shares over the last three years.

On 15 September 2023, you could have bought Santos shares for $7.91 each. Meaning your $10,000 investment would have netted you 1,264 shares.

At time of writing, Santos shares are swapping hands for $8.65 apiece, up 9.4% in three years.

If you owned the stock over this period, you’d also have received (or shortly will) the last six Santos dividends, mostly unfranked, totalling a rounded $1.13 a share.

Santos traded ex-dividend on 24 August. Eligible investors can expect to receive that passive income payment on 23 September.

If we add that $1.13 back in to today’s share price, then the Santos shares you bought for $7.91 three years ago are now worth an accumulated $9.78 each.

And the 1,264 shares you bought for $10,000 are worth an accumulated $12,362.

How have the ASX 200 energy stocks fared in 2026?

Both ASX 200 energy stocks are enjoying a banner year amid tight global oil markets.

Santos shares have gained 40.6% in 2026, while Woodside shares are up 39.9%, not including their dividends.

The post $10,000 invested in Santos and Woodside shares 3 years ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $80,000 per year in passive income?
• 9 ASX 200 shares earning strengthened buy ratings this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here’s what brokers tip for Santos shares over the next 12 months

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK) shares are having a rough time during Friday midday.

The gold and antimony producer is down 4.23% to $1.81, extending what has already been a weak few days for the stock.

There was also an update after Thursday’s close that could be getting some attention.

Alkane revealed that managing director and CEO Nicholas Earner has sold 2 million shares.

It’s a decent sale, and I’d expect investors to want to know a bit more about it.

Why did the CEO sell?

According to Alkane’s ASX filing, Earner sold the 2 million shares on market at $1.947 each.

That puts the total value of the sale at around $3.89 million.

The company said the sale was made to meet Earner’s expected personal tax obligations and other commitments.

It also pointed out that this was his first personal sale of Alkane shares since 2020.

Even after the transaction, Earner still owns just over 4 million Alkane shares through related entities, along with almost 3 million performance rights.

So, I wouldn’t be hitting the panic button here just yet. It’s not like Earner has cashed out and walked away.

Alkane shares have had a big year

Even at $1.81, Alkane shares are still up around 35% in 2026 and roughly 75% over the past 12 months.

The company has been putting up some strong financial numbers too.

FY26 revenue jumped 257% to $935.8 million, while net profit after tax (NPAT) surged to $228.7 million.

Alkane produced 168,337 gold equivalent ounces across the year.

The balance sheet is in good shape, with cash and bullion of $438.9 million at 30 June.

And shareholders are getting some of that back, with Alkane declaring its first fully-franked dividend of 2 cents per share.

The company has even approved an on-market share buyback of up to $50 million.

Should investors be worried?

Personally, I wouldn’t be too concerned about one director sale.

That’s especially the case when Alkane has explained the reason and Earner still owns a sizeable holding.

What matters more is how the business performs.

Alkane is guiding for FY27 production of 163,000 to 177,000 gold equivalent ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,900 to $3,200 per ounce.

I think those numbers, along with where the gold price goes next, will have a much bigger say on the share price.

There is plenty for shareholders to watch over the next few quarters, particularly after the huge run Alkane shares have already had.

The post CEO sells $3.9 million of shares. Should investors be worried? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• 9 ASX mining shares going ex-dividend this week
• 40 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• This ASX 200 gold stock could be a top buy after a ‘transformational’ year

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Copper shares are leading the falls on the ASX on Friday, after doubts were raised about the US imposing tariffs on the vital industrial metal.

Tariffs fears have been boosting prices

The copper price has been hitting record highs recently amid fears the US will impose tariffs in a bid to promote more home-grown mining and production.

Reports indicate that traders have been importing copper into the US and building up stockpiles ahead of the rumoured tariffs, helping push prices higher.

But a report from Reuters overnight suggested that the White House was still weighing up the higher costs tariffs could impose on the US’ manufacturing sector against the benefits of encouraging more domestic mining.

Reuters quoted a White House official as saying all options remained on the table.

They said:

The administration continues to ​evaluate all options to reshore copper and other critical manufacturing back to the United States.

This has been interpreted by market watchers as suggesting tariffs may not be imposed, leading to sharp falls in the share prices of copper miners.

Among the Australian-listed producers, shares in Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP) fell 9.6%, Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) fell 7.8%, and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) fell 6.7%.

Shares in BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), which now derives more than half of its earnings from copper, fell 3.7%, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares were off 2.7%.

“No tariff” decision could ease prices

Morgan Stanley said the Reuters report gave slightly more weight to a “no tariff” scenario.  

They added:

Today’s article does not constitute a decision but it arguably has driven the market to give slightly more weight to the “no tariff” scenario than before. Copper prices are up around 15% YTD with both benchmarks hitting all time highs in recent days, with much of this year’s strength arguably attributable to strong US import demand ahead of potential tariffs. We estimate US excess imports have now exceeded 450 kt YTD, or 2.5-3% of global refined copper demand when annualised. However, if those imports were to slow down, the copper market would feel substantially looser in our view.

Morgan Stanley said the proposed tariffs would be 15% on refined copper from the start of January 2027, potentially rising to 30% in 2028.

The Reuters article confirmed that an update report on the US copper market, due on June 30, had been given to the US President.

Copper demand is expected to remain strong in coming years as the electrification of the economy gains pace.

The post Down almost 10%! Why are ASX copper shares tanking? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys?
• ASX 200 dives to a 6-week low. What’s behind today’s sell-off?
• Up 62% in a year are BHP shares now a buy, hold or sell?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) are up more than 40% over a 12-month period, but according to the analysts at Macquarie, there’s further upside in the stock yet.

Organic growth locked in for the medium term

Westgold recently released its FY27 production guidance and an updated outlook for the next three years.

The company said in that release that it was fully funded to increase its gold production from 385,000 to 425,000 ounces in FY27 to 460,000 to 510,000 ounces in FY29.

The company added:

The plan is underpinned by increased Murchison ore availability, expansion of the Cue and Meekatharra processing hubs and investment in Westgold’s largest mines. This investment is expected to lift production, improve mill utilisation and reduce all-in sustaining costs to $2,640–$3,000/oz by FY29 on an FY27 real-cost basis.

Westgold said the outlook was a base case, with potential material upside from opportunities not factored in at this stage.

Foremost among these was the Fletcher Zone at the Beta Hunt mine, which the company said was the largest organic growth opportunity.

The company added:

Once developed, and supported by a larger Southern Goldfields processing hub, current internal conceptual studies indicate Fletcher could add approximately 140kozpa to Group production and position Westgold to deliver more than 600,000ozpa

Westgold said it would be investing $50 to $75 million into exploration and resource definition drilling in FY27, and more than $150 million over three years.

Westgold Managing Director Wayne Bramwell said:

Westgold’s updated 3YO is a high confidence, executable organic growth plan lifting Group production towards 500,000 oz in FY29. This plan is fully funded with Group All-In Sustaining costs forecast to fall as the benefits of higher-grade ore availability and expansion of key Murchison mines and processing capacity to >7Mtpa are realised, delivering enhanced Group cashflow. The capital program reflects a deliberate decision to prioritise Murchison investment and utilise Westgold’s strong balance sheet, improving reserve confidence and growing mining inventories to invest ahead of production.

Westgold Resources shares looking cheap

Macquarie said in a research note to clients that Westgold’s capital expenditure over the three-year outlook came in at 36% higher than consensus estimates.

They said on the positive side of the ledger, the growth plans were underpinned by solid ore reserves, “and WGX has the balance sheet to undertake the mine development and mill expansions”.

Macquarie has a price target of $7 on Westgold shares compared to the current share price of $5.50.

If achieved, this would constitute a return of 27.3%, not including dividends.

Westgold is valued at $5.83 billion.

The post How high could Westgold Resources shares go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) is one of the ASX defence stocks I think could surprise investors before the end of the year.

The shares are down 2.12% to $9.22 on Friday, leaving them around 27% below their August high of $12.58.

But I’m not too bothered by the recent weakness.

What interests me more is how quickly this stock can move when the company gives investors something new to get excited about.

At today’s price, EOS would need to gain around 41% to trade above $13.

Normally, that would sound ambitious over just a few months.

With EOS, I don’t think it is.

We’ve already seen how quickly EOS can move

Back in August last year, EOS announced its first export order for a 100kW high-energy laser weapon.

The roughly $125 million contract, was placed by a European NATO member state. EOS shares jumped more than 40% on the day.

That’s the type of move investors need to remember with this stock.

We saw something similar after last month’s half-year result. EOS shares jumped 23% on 25 August and traded as high as $11.98 just 2 days later.

EOS has also added some very large defence orders, including a US$124 million Slinger counter-drone contract announced in June.

If another big one drops before Christmas, I think the shares could move very quickly again and put $13 back in sight.

The business is starting to deliver

The big difference today is that EOS is no longer relying mainly on future potential.

First-half revenue surged 283% to $168.8 million, while underlying EBITDA swung from a $14.9 million loss a year earlier to a $21.6 million profit.

The order book also reached a record $846 million, which gives the company plenty of work already locked in.

Management has since lifted FY26 revenue guidance to between $360 million and $400 million.

Chief executive Andreas Schwer also said this week that he expects the order book to grow again before the end of the year.

If that happens, I think investors will have even more reason to get excited about where EOS shares could go next.

Could EOS shares reach $13?

I think they can.

TipRanks shows 3 current buy ratings, with an average price target of $13.40. Canaccord Genuity is the most bullish at $15, while Ord Minnett and Bell Potter have targets of $12.50 and $12.60, respectively.

That means the brokers are already looking at levels around where I think EOS shares could trade before Christmas.

With a record order book, and management expecting more orders before year-end, I think the setup looks very strong.

The post Could this ASX defence stock rocket back above $13 before Christmas? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Top 3 ASX defence shares to buy right now
• 4 ASX shares I’d buy with $5,000 in September
• EOS shares are sinking 5% today. Is the huge rally running out of steam?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• What is Bell Potter saying about EOS shares after its results?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.