Tag: Stock pick

ASX share prices are always changing. Some analysts see upside ahead for certain ASX shares.

Based on expert price targets, there are a few stocks that could deliver returns of more than 60% in the next 12 months. A price target is where brokers think share prices will be in a year, though that’s not a guarantee of future returns.

Let’s look at two of the most exciting prospects.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Xero is one of the world’s leading cloud accounting businesses, with a focus on small and medium enterprises (SME). Its main markets are Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US.

According to CMC Invest, there have been three analyst ratings on the ASX share in the last three months. Two of those analyst ratings calls were a buy and one was a hold.  

The price target of the three ratings is $106.81, which implies a possible rise of 84.6% at the time of writing. Even a return of half of that scale would be very impressive.

Xero’s underlying numbers continue to be impressive, though Melio-related costs led to lower net profit in FY26.

During FY26, the company reported that operating revenue grew 31% to $2.75 billion following an 11% rise of customers to 4.92 million and a 23% increase in the average revenue per customer growing to $55.44.

Xero also reported that annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) grew by 37% to $3.27 billion and adjusted operating profit (EBITDA) jumped 18% to $757 million.  

For FY27, operating revenue is expected to grow to between $3.62 billion and $3.73 billion, while adjusted EBITDA is forecast to rise to between $860 million and $920 million.

Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

Another ASX share currently rated positively is Nine Entertainment, a large media business. It has the Nine Network and 9Now, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Australian Financial Review and other media assets.

According to CMC Invest, four analysts have rated the business in the last three months. Three of those ratings were buy calls, and one was a hold call.

Of those four ratings, the average price target is currently $1.11. At the time of writing, that suggests a possible rise of 62% over the next 12 months.

The company continues to deliver underlying earnings. In FY26, it reported that its continuing business achieved 3% revenue growth, 17% operating profit (EBITDA) growth and 7% net profit after tax (NPAT) growth.

The ASX share also recently announced that it had extended its Premier League rights through to 2034, which is an important driver of EBITDA growth for Stan (the streaming service).

The post 2 ASX shares tipped to grow 62% or more in the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Tech shares shine while ASX 200 plunges to 4-month low
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• By October 2027, $5,000 invested in Xero shares could turn into…
• Codan vs Xero: Which ASX tech stock is the better buy in October?
• 5 leading ASX shares I’d buy and hold until 2040

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A big dividend yield can be attractive, but the business behind it still needs to stack up.

Fortunately, there are some ASX shares offering strong income prospects alongside assets and earnings that could support distributions over the long term.

Here are three that could be worth considering.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA Group could be a strong option for income investors. It owns a huge network of energy infrastructure across Australia, including gas pipelines, processing facilities, storage assets, and electricity transmission infrastructure.

What makes APA attractive is the position these assets occupy within the energy system. Australia can build new gas fields, renewable projects, batteries, and other sources of supply, but the energy still has to reach customers. APA owns infrastructure that helps make that happen.

Its existing network can also create opportunities to connect new projects without starting from scratch each time. This gives the company a long runway to keep investing in infrastructure while generating cash flow from assets already in operation.

APA is forecast to offer a dividend yield of approximately 5.5% in FY 2027.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN)

Another ASX dividend share worth considering is HomeCo Daily Needs REIT.

It is a property company that owns neighbourhood retail centres, large-format retail properties, and healthcare and services assets.

A key strength of the portfolio is how often people have a reason to visit. A trip to its properties might involve buying groceries, going to the pharmacy, visiting a healthcare provider, picking up pet supplies, or using another local service.

That regular customer traffic can make these properties valuable locations for tenants and support rental demand.

This gives the company a relatively dependable rental base from which to pay dividends. Speaking of which, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is forecast to provide a FY 2027 dividend yield of approximately 8.25%.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

A final ASX dividend share for income investors to look at is Transurban.

It owns and operates major toll roads across Australia and North America.

These assets are located in some of the busiest parts of major cities, where congestion can make faster and more reliable travel valuable to motorists.

Population growth can increase the number of vehicles using its roads, while toll increases built into many concession agreements can support revenue growth over time.

The company can also expand and improve its existing networks through new projects and upgrades.

This combination of established infrastructure, recurring toll revenue, and long concession periods leaves Transurban well-placed to pay a growing stream of dividends.

For FY 2027, Transurban is expected to offer a dividend yield of around 5.5%.

The post 3 excellent ASX dividend shares with 5%+ yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Origin Energy vs APA Group: Which ASX dividend share wins?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• How to build a $52,000 passive income with ASX shares
• Transurban Group share price: $4.5bn deal for bigger Sydney road stakes
• 54,543 shares of this high-yield ASX dividend stock pay an income equal to the Age Pension

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Origin Energy vs APA Group shares: Which is better for passive income?

If you’re hunting for passive income on the ASX, it’s hard to ignore Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and APA Group (ASX: APA). Both are heavyweights in Australia’s energy landscape and have a strong tradition of paying dividends. But which delivers better value for income-focused investors, and what sets these two sector leaders apart? Here’s how I see it.

The case for Origin Energy

Origin Energy is one of Australia’s dominant integrated energy companies, generating and selling electricity and natural gas across the country. Its operations stretch from energy production (including renewables and gas) through to retailing power to millions of Aussie homes and businesses. Origin has a long history, with a business heritage dating back to 1946.

For passive income seekers, a few points leap out:

• Reliable dividends:In recent years, Origin has moved back to delivering fully franked dividends, including 60 cents per share in both 2025 and 2026—with 100% franking.
• Attractive yield: The current dividend yield sits at 5.46%, making it a strong contender versus the ASX 200 average.
• Solid valuation: With a P/E ratio of 12.04 and EPS reported at $0.912, the current share price seems reasonable for a large-cap utility.
• Full franking: Not every income stock pays fully franked dividends, but Origin’s 100% franking boosts the after-tax cash flow for local investors.

The case for APA Group

APA Group is Australia’s leading energy infrastructure company. While Origin is more involved in retailing and generation, APA is all about the pipes and wires: owning and operating a vast network of gas pipelines, electricity interconnectors, and renewable energy assets. According to its most recent company description, APA moves the majority of Australia’s natural gas, making it a backbone of the energy grid.

Here’s why APA catches the eye for income:

• Steady payouts: APA’s dividend history is one of remarkable consistency, with payments edging up very gradually over time. The most recent full-year payout sits at 58 cents per share.
• Comparable yield: On current figures, the dividend yield is 5.47%, virtually identical to Origin’s.
• Partially franked dividends: Unlike Origin, APA only partially franked its dividends—recent payments have franking levels ranging from 0% up to about one-third.
• Low earnings relative to price: APA’s P/E is 67.41, with EPS at $0.157, so investors are clearly paying a premium for its ownership of energy-channelling infrastructure.

Valuation comparison

With passive income front of mind, here’s how the key numbers stack up:

Metric	Origin Energy	APA Group
P/E Ratio	12.04	67.41
Dividend Yield	5.46% (fully franked)	5.47% (partially franked)
Dividend per share (latest full year)	$0.60	$0.58
Franking	100%	31.4%
EPS	$0.912	$0.157
Market Cap	$18.66 billion	$14.11 billion

Note: APA Group’s reported P/E ratio may be based on a different earnings measure than the EPS listed, given the numbers appear inconsistent.

APA’s yield and payout track Origin’s very closely, but the big distinction is franking—important for many Aussie income investors. APA’s much higher P/E suggests investors may see it as safer or more predictable, but it undoubtedly demands a higher price for each dollar of profit.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 1 October 2026:

• Origin Energy closed at $10.83, down 1.37% on the day. Its year-to-date return is 0.8%—essentially flat for 2026 so far.
• APA Group closed at $10.59, slipping 0.19% on the day. However, its year-to-date return is an impressive 21.7%, suggesting strong recent buying interest.

Both stocks have wobbled a bit in recent sessions, but APA’s stronger year-to-date share price rise is a real point of difference.

Which is the better buy?

Both Origin Energy and APA Group give passive income investors a starting yield around 5.5%. If all you want is a solid, reliable dividend, the two are neck-and-neck on headline payout.

However, I’d lean towards Origin Energy for one key reason: franking. Fully franked dividends can be a big after-tax boost, especially for investors who can use franking credits in their tax returns. APA does offer solid and dependable income, but with less franking and a much steeper P/E, there’s less value on offer in my view—at least for income-first portfolios. APA’s recent share price run and infrastructure profile will appeal to some, but if I’m picking for franked passive income, Origin’s the more compelling option right now.

The post Origin Energy vs APA Group: Which ASX dividend share wins? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 excellent ASX dividend shares with 5%+ yields
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• How to build a $52,000 passive income with ASX shares
• 54,543 shares of this high-yield ASX dividend stock pay an income equal to the Age Pension
• APA Group unveils $1.3bn Brigalow Power Plant deal to underpin growth

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with the smallest of gains. The benchmark index rose 4.3 points to 8,686.4 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Tuesday following a good start to the week in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 27 points or 0.3% higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.65%, and the Nasdaq stormed 1.05% higher.

Buy Amplitude shares

The team at Bell Potter thinks Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) shares are good value at current levels. This morning, the broker was pleased to see Amplitude Energy’s net September 2026 quarterly gas production come in ahead of expectations at 7.4PJ. In response, it has retained its buy rating with a $2.45 price target. It said: “AEL is a pure-play leverage to the southern east coast Australian gas market with the majority of its gas sales under stable contracted prices. The company’s flagship 100%-owned Gippsland Basin asset is now consistently operating at nameplate capacity above 70TJ/day; debottlenecking could see incremental improvements.”

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a tough session on Tuesday after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.95% to US$89.39 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 1.8% to US$100.42 a barrel. Traders were selling oil after Middle East crude exports increased.

Transurban given trim rating

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) shares are fully valued according to Morgans. In response to its Sydney tollroads deal, the broker has retained its trim rating with a reduced price target of $12.03. It said: “TCL has increased its exposure to the Sydney market via acquisition of additional equity stakes in key tollroads. While we view positively the deployment by TCL of capital into markets and assets that it knows well, we struggle to see the cashflow benefit for investors at the acquisition price paid particularly in the context of the higher rate environment.”

Gold price edges higher

ASX 200 gold shares Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) and Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) could have a relatively positive session after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.1% to US$4,166.7 an ounce. This was driven by softening US rate hike expectations.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Tech shares shine while ASX 200 plunges to 4-month low
• How to build a $52,000 passive income with ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Thanks to its record of delivering business growth over the long-term, I’m calling L1 Group Ltd (ASX: L1G) one of Australia’s top shares.

Since the L1 Group share price has fallen 16% since 26 August 2026, it could be a good time to consider buying.

L1 Group is a fund manager offering several strategies that investors use, including a long-short strategy, a global long-short strategy, a gold strategy, international share strategies, and a UK residential fund.

I think this is a great time to invest in one of Australia’s top shares for the following reasons.

Volatile ASX share opportunity

Fund managers are often among the most volatile stocks on the market. This is because the share market can experience significant ups and downs, which can severely impact funds under management (FUM) and therefore the company’s monthly profitability.

But I think periods of decline can be the best time for brave investors to invest.

Don’t forget that the business has experienced strong FUM growth, which is a more important driver than ultra-short-term FUM movements. In FY26, L1 Group’s FUM increased by around 17%. It also said that quarterly flows improved every quarter in FY26.

According to the projection on CMC Invest, the L1 Group share price is now valued at 20x FY27’s estimated earnings.

Strong long-term investment performance

One of the most important drivers of a fund manager’s performance is the returns of the funds.

L1 can point to strong performance in both FY26 and the long term, particularly in what I consider the most important strategy. In fact, the long-short strategy has returned an average of 20.7% (net) per year between September 2014 and August 2026. I think that level of long-term performance earns it the classification as one of Australia’s top shares.

Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. However, those sorts of returns help drive the FUM higher organically. It can also help attract additional client FUM in the coming years.

Future profit growth expected

Following the L1 acquisition of/merger with Platinum, the medium-term outlook for profit margin growth seems very positive.

It recently announced it was increasing its target merger cost synergies from $35 million to around $43 million. The incremental synergy savings are expected to fund ongoing investment in the group during FY27.

On top of that, the company points out a number of core growth pathways. It notes growth of existing funds through performance and flows, joint ventures, extensions of existing strategies (such as the global long-short strategy and gold strategy), and the acquisition of existing investment managers.

According to CMC Invest, the business is projected to grow its earnings per share (EPS) by around 20% in FY27. This should be a strong growth tailwind.

The post A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 2 ASX mining companies tipped to jump 52% and 87%
• How much must I invest in Telstra shares to earn a $1,000 passive income in 2027?
• This ASX health technology company could more than double in value: Broker
• How much could the big 4 banks’ share prices fall?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in L1 Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Both of these ASX mining companies have been downgraded by the brokers that cover them, yet their price targets remain well above their current trading levels.

Let’s see what the brokers are saying about them.

Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK)

This company has just completed a $40 million capital raise at 10 cents per share, with the money to be used to fund its next phase of growth.

More specifically, the money will be used to fund the company’s recent Mt Holland project acquisition, the development of its new Turnberry underground mine which will start in October, additional growth drilling and to strengthen working capital.

Meeka generated $160.8 million in revenue in FY26 and made a net profit of $51.3 million.

Broker Morgans said the company’s recent guidance of 7000-7500 ounces of gold recovered in the September quarter was below their estimate of 9800 ounces.

They added:

We maintain our BUY recommendation on MEK with a revised price target of 17 cents per share. MEK is transitioning to a two-mine underground operation, with Turnberry underground (first ore Jan-27) adding a second ore source to Andy Well. While the September quarter miss has tempered near-term expectations, the Turnberry ramp-up, ore sorter performance and drilling at depth are catalysts that could rebuild confidence and narrow MEK’s discount to net asset value.

Morgans’ price target is 87% higher than the current share price of 9.1 cents (at the time of writing).

American Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: ARR)

This company recently updated the scoping study for its Cowboy State mining project, which estimated an after-tax net present value of US$1.07 billion and a production rate of 2500 tonnes per year of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide.

The mine is now expected to run for 26 years, up from 20, and cost US$900 million to bring into production.

American Rare Earths Chief Executive Officer Mark Wall said:

Our ambition is to turn Halleck Creek’s resource scale into a long term source of rare earth materials for American industry. This study gives investors a clearer view of the first development phase and the work that is moving it forward. We are now evaluating a mine with 50% greater processing capacity, 36% more annual NdPr oxide production and a longer operating life than the 2025 base case. That is a substantial platform from which to advance the project.

Bell Potter analysts said in their research note on the company that Halleck Creek remains one of the largest rare earth resources in the US.

The broker has a 55 cent price target on the company, which sits well above the current price of 36 cents (at the time of writing).

If achieved, this would represent a 52% return.

The post 2 ASX mining companies tipped to jump 52% and 87% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares?
• How much must I invest in Telstra shares to earn a $1,000 passive income in 2027?
• This ASX health technology company could more than double in value: Broker
• How much could the big 4 banks’ share prices fall?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I think that Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is one of the most appealing ASX blue-chip shares to consider for passive income because of how much the business is paying.

As a very profitable business, Telstra is rewarding investors with large and growing dividend payments.

Dividends aren’t guaranteed, of course, but in a defensive industry like telecommunications, the payouts are more reliable and resilient than in many other sectors, in my view.

Let’s get into how Telstra could deliver $1,000 of annual passive income in 2027.

Telstra dividend projection

The business delivered strong dividend growth in FY26, increasing its annual dividend per share by 10.5% to 21 cents. Not many ASX blue-chip shares grew their payout by that much in FY26.

Things could get even better for shareholders in the 2027 financial year, and that’s what I think investors should focus on for the current financial year. FY26 is now the past.

According to CommSec, analysts are now projecting the annual dividend per share could grow to 22 cents per share. That would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.5%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

Not many ASX blue-chip shares are offering that sort of potential yield, with further growth projected to come in the following financial year (FY28).

What would it take for $1,000 of passive income in 2027?

The amount required for $1,000 of annual dividends in FY27 depends on whether franking credits are included in the income.

With a passive income projection of 22 cents per share in the 2027 financial year, it would require 4,546 Telstra shares to generate that much dividend cash.

If we include franking credits as part of the dividend income, it would take 3,182 Telstra shares to reach the $1,000 grossed-up dividend income goal.

Is this a good time to invest in Telstra shares?

Analysts are largely positive or neutral on the business right now. According to CommSec’s collation of expert ratings, there are currently seven buys, eight holds, and one sell rating on the business.

Telstra expects both of its measures of operating profit (underlying EBITDAaL and cash EBIT) to rise in the single digits in FY27. Underlying EBITDAaL could come between $8.5 billion and $8.8 billion, while cash EBIT could reach between $4.75 billion and $4.95 billion.

While faster growth would be preferred, the company continues to demonstrate its ability to grow earnings, whether that’s during good times or not.

Australia’s ongoing digitalisation and growing population are both demand drivers for connection to the company’s mobile network or its fibre network, which can help earnings and the dividend in the coming year.

The post How much must I invest in Telstra shares to earn a $1,000 passive income in 2027? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Telstra vs Woodside: Which ASX dividend stock comes out on top?
• A leading fund just bought these top ASX 200 shares
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• Buy, hold, sell: Deep Yellow, SGH, Telstra shares
• With $2.4 billion in FY26 profits, are Telstra shares a good buy today?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX health technology company Blinklab Ltd (ASX: BB1) is entering an interesting phase, broker Morgans believes, with several share price catalysts soon to emerge.

New technology opening up a large market

Blinklab produces smartphone software to diagnose conditions such as autism and ADHD. Morgans noted that readouts from four exploratory programs are soon to be published.

Blinklab has almost fully recruited participants for a pivotal study for autism, with Morgans saying this should be completed by the end of the year, with submission to the US Food and Drug Administration expected in the first quarter of calendar 2027.

Morgans added:

BB1’s technology has broad applications across additional indications (adult autism, dementia detection, ketamine-based pharma intervention) and preliminary data is expected to read out over the next 12 months adding to the cadence of news flow. Recently, BB1’s European ADHD study delivered positive results. A US pilot is due to start in 2QCY27, ahead of a pivotal study mirroring the autism path. We agree with management that this presents a significantly larger commercial opportunity than autism spectrum disorder.

The company also recently announced a major appointment, with Dr Raphael Bernier joining the board.

Dr Bernier was the former clinical lead for mental health at Apple Health. The company said he brought first-hand experience translating clinical science into digital products at a global scale.

Blinklab said at the time:

Dr Bernier brings a rare combination of clinical practice, internationally recognised research leadership and commercial product-development experience. His appointment is intended to deepen the Board’s expertise as BlinkLab progresses its pivotal U.S. FDA 510(k) program for BlinkLab Dx1 and prepares for clinical adoption and commercialisation in the United States, subject to regulatory clearance. Dr Bernier recently retired from Apple Health, where he led the clinical development of the Mental Wellbeing app for iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. He also conducted early-stage research across released and unreleased products in the Apple ecosystem and supported the rollout of additional products relating to child development and cognitive accessibility.

Morgans said there were significant market opportunities in the diagnosis of autism and ADHD, and Blinklab also had the opportunity to expand into other conditions.

Shares looking cheap

The broker has a 12-month price target of $1.76 on Blinklab shares compared to 66 cents currently.

If achieved, this would be a 166% return. The shares are well down from their 12-month high of $1.10.

Blinklab is valued at $114.6 million.

The post This ASX health technology company could more than double in value: Broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Tech shares shine while ASX 200 plunges to 4-month low
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The big four banks have traditionally been seen as safe havens for Australian investors. However, a new research report from broker Jarden argues that they are all overvalued at current share prices.

Jarden only has an overweight recommendation on ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ). Meanwhile, it has sell ratings on Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC).

Federal Budget having an impact

The broker argues that the federal government’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing rules for property investors will at least halve the rate of home loan growth, which could have implications for dividend policies at the banks.

Jarden said Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) continues to outperform the big four banks with its simplified digital offerings.

The broker also said AI threatens to change the way people interact with banking, and inertia may no longer be enough to retain customers.

While Jarden prefers ANZ to the other banks with its overweight rating, its price target of $35.50 is still below the current level of $37.36.

ANZ is also paying a 4.5% dividend yield.

The bank recently announced that its cash profit for the quarter ended 30 June was up just 1% on the quarterly average of the half-year ended 31 March.

At the time, ANZ Chief Executive Officer Nuno Matos said:

As we release our third quarter update, we remain on track to meet our Return on Tangible Equity and Cost-to-Income targets. In the quarter, we continued to improve productivity, margins and business volumes, including accelerating growth in business banking and returning home lending to system growth. Beyond our immediate priorities, we are investing now in customer experience, propositions, channel uplift and transaction banking. This will position us well for the second phase of our strategy beyond 2027, to accelerate growth and outperform the market.

Commonwealth Bank could drop sharply

Regarding Commonwealth Bank, Jarden is predicting a very steep share price fall from $151.18 currently to $90.

When releasing its FY26 results, CBA warned of difficult times ahead.

It said:

The Australian economy has remained resilient, supported by historically low unemployment and longer-term investment. However growth is slowing, with higher interest rates and inflation placing uneven pressure on household incomes and economic activity. Housing activity has softened from a high base. Application volumes appear to have stabilised in recent weeks. Businesses continue to manage higher input costs and supply uncertainty.

For National Australia Bank, Jarden is forecasting a share price of $29, compared to $38.55 currently. Meanwhile, for Westpac, it is predicting its share price to fall from $34.26 (at the time of writing) to $31.

The post How much could the big 4 banks’ share prices fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ANZ vs AMP: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy this month?
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• Fortescue vs National Australia Bank: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy this month?
• Buy, hold, sell: CBA, Capstone Copper, Codan shares
• Why I’d buy CBA and Coles shares in October

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto shares: Which ASX 200 giant looks better value?

Investors tossing up between Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are looking at two titans of the Australian sharemarket, both mainstays of the ASX 200, but operating in very different sectors. With Woodside in oil and gas and Rio Tinto in global mining, both offer scale, dividends, and global reach, but their value story isn’t the same. For anyone keen on dependable blue chips, “Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto shares” is a classic ASX yardstick – so which looks better value today?

The case for Woodside Energy

Woodside Energy is Australia’s largest independent oil and gas company and the nation’s biggest operator of oil and gas production. With key assets both onshore and offshore in Australia and a growing international presence, Woodside recently cemented its size and scale with a major merger, bringing BHP‘s oil and gas portfolio under its umbrella. The business has a long ASX history, with its first shares hitting the boards back in 1971.

Looking at the fundamentals, three points stand out for Woodside:

• Dividend appeal: Woodside trades on a 5.11% dividend yield, which is fully franked. Over the past decade (and more), this company has consistently delivered strong, fully franked dividend payments, making it a core holding for many income investors.
• Valuation: Its P/E ratio sits at 13.94, with year-to-date return at a powerful 42.1% – a rare combination of value and recent momentum.
• Market scale: With a market cap just shy of $59 billion and 1.9 billion shares on issue, Woodside is a true heavyweight in the local resources space.

Woodside’s fully franked interim dividend was $0.57 (paid 25 Sep 2026), keeping with its reputation for reliable cash returns, according to its most recent dividend payouts.

The case for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s biggest diversified mining companies, with operations spanning iron ore, aluminium, copper, and even lithium. Headquartered in Australia but with a truly global footprint, Rio’s history stretches back to 1873 and it’s a familiar name for local and international investors alike. The company’s ASX listing in 1962 marked the beginning of a long, often prosperous journey for patient shareholders.

Notable features for Rio Tinto right now include:

• Earnings strength: With an earnings per share (EPS) of 7.382 and a dividend per share of $6.63, Rio’s scale translates into solid cashflow. The most recent interim dividend was $2.96 (paid 24 Sep 2026), fully franked.
• Valuation and yield: The P/E ratio is 15.86 – a slightly higher multiple than Woodside’s – with a current dividend yield of 3.97%, fully franked.
• Market heft: At $60.55 billion market cap and 2.51 billion shares outstanding, Rio is among the absolute largest stocks on the ASX.

That said, Rio’s year-to-date return is a more modest 18.2% compared to Woodside’s near-rocket 42.1%.

Valuation comparison

Here’s how the numbers stack up head-to-head on the key fundamentals worth highlighting:

Metric	Woodside Energy	Rio Tinto
Market Capitalisation	$58.72 billion	$60.55 billion
P/E Ratio	13.94	15.86
Dividend Yield	5.11% (100% franked)	3.97% (100% franked)
Dividend per Share	$1.63	$6.63
Earnings per Share	1.605	7.382
Year-to-date Return	42.1%	18.2%

Keep in mind sector norms for P/E can differ – mining giants often see a wider range of multiples versus energy – so I’m careful not to paint one as clearly “cheaper” than the other in an absolute sense. Both companies pay fully franked dividends.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 1 October 2026.

• Woodside Energy: Closed at $30.89, down 3.1% for the day. Year-to-date gain is 42.1% as of 1 October 2026.
• Rio Tinto: Closed at $162.85, down 2.4% for the day. Year-to-date gain is 18.2% as of 1 October 2026.

Both stocks saw a dip on the most recent day, but Woodside’s share price has shown much stronger upward momentum so far in 2026.

Which is the better buy?

Both Woodside Energy and Rio Tinto are market leaders in their fields, boasting size, stability, and strong dividend records. But on the value side, I’d lean toward Woodside Energy as the standout right now. What tips me over is the combination of a lower P/E ratio (relative to Rio), a significantly higher fully franked dividend yield, and much stronger recent share price performance so far in 2026. Woodside’s ability to maintain a 5%+ yield on top of a 42% YTD return is a rare feat among large caps.

I also like the merger-driven growth story with BHP’s former oil and gas assets now embedded in its portfolio, supporting both scale and cashflow diversity. Of course, resource shares can see swings depending on the commodities cycle, but as I see it today, Woodside looks better value for anyone weighing these two ASX giants side by side.

The post Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto: Which ASX 200 stock is better value? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• If I invest $15,000 in Woodside shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.