Day: June 19, 2024

Russian arms manufacturers are ‘scrambling to expand their production capabilities using whatever they can get,’ expert says

Putin at a tank factory
Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Uralvagonzavod, the country's main tank factory, in February 2024.

  • Russia is expanding arms production by buying secondhand tools via China to evade sanctions.
  • A new report sheds light on how the Kremlin is circumventing Western restrictions.
  • There's a lack of compliance in the secondhand market, the lead researcher told the FT.

Russia is rushing to expand its arms production by buying secondhand machine tools from China through covert networks to get around Western sanctions.

A report from Washington-based nonprofit think-tank The Center for Advanced Defense Studies, or C4ADS, said that Russia's arms manufacturers were "scrambling to expand their production capabilities using whatever they can get."

And Russian defense industry analyst and lead researcher Allen Maggard told the Financial Times that the decades-old machine tools Russia is importing are still effective.

"Just because a machining center is two or three decades old doesn't mean that it's incapable of producing simple components for weapons," he said.

"This speaks to a lack of compliance in the second-hand market, not to mention that manufacturers are unlikely to care about where their products end up after being sold," he added.

Getting around sanctions

Since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has had to find the supplies needed to keep its war machine going.

One of Russia's greatest vulnerabilities is its reliance on foreign technologies, including machine tools that automate the manufacture of precision-guided munitions and aircraft parts, among other key defense equipment, the researchers wrote in the report.

Faced with restrictive sanctions and export controls, the Kremlin has turned to complicated arrangements with opaque companies that act as middlemen.

Many Russian military suppliers have been placed under sanctions by the US. However, they are finding workarounds.

One supplier, AMG, increased its buying of high-end defense equipment made by a Japanese company, Tsugami, from $600,000 in 2021 to $50 million in 2023, according to customs documents.

In 2023 more than 60% of Tsugami sales were to China.

The rise from AMG has come through two middlemen, according to the report: Amegino, a US-sanctioned company based in the UAE and owned by Andrey Mironov, and ELE Technology, a company based in China that fraudulently claims to be part of US company Gray Machinery.

Glenn Gray, the president of Gray Machinery, told the FT he'd never heard of the company.

Tsugami also told the publication that it hasn't sold any products directly to ELE.

Documents seen by C4ADS show that Amegino and ELE have worked together to procure goods for Russia, according to the report, with Amegino acting as a broker, commissioning Chinese companies such as ELE to ship goods to Russia.

C4ADS found other similar cases including a Russian company, UMIC — not sanctioned by the US but thought to be owned by the wife of the owner of AMG — acquiring machine tools made in various countries around the world, but all bought in yuan through Chinese traders and shipped from China.

UMIC and ELE did not immediately reply to Business Insider's request for comment.

Read the original article on Business Insider

The UAE is set to be the world’s ‘wealth magnet’ this year, with 6,700 millionaires expected to move there

Sun rising over UAE Dubai cityscape
Dubai is one of the Middle Eastern cities emerging as a hedge fund hot spot.

  • A record 128,000 millionaires are expected to move countries in 2024, according to a new report.
  • Data from Henley & Partners shows the UAE has the largest predicted inflow of millionaires.
  • This is the third year the UAE, dubbed a "wealth magnet" by the firm, topped the list.

Millionaires are choosing one place above all to move to, according to a new report: the United Arab Emirates.

According to data from the latest report by Henley & Partners, a firm that advises the wealthy on where to move to protect and grow their assets, 6,700 millionaires are projected to move to the UAE this year.

That's nearly double the inflow to the US, which had the second-highest expected migration of millionaires, at 3,800.

The US, however, still has the largest overall population of millionaires, followed by China, it said. The UAE came in 14th.

The annual wealth report suggested that a record-breaking 128,000 millionaires, defined as individuals with liquid investable assets over $1 million, are expected to move countries this year.

The firm dubbed 2024 a "watershed moment in the global migration of wealth."

The firm's calculations are based on millionaire migration data from the first six months of 2024, rounded to the nearest 100, supplied by wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth.

China is actually on track to lose the greatest number of millionaires in 2024, with 15,200 high-net-worth individuals, or HNWIs, expected to leave the country, it said.

This is a 10% increase from last year, it added, when China also had the highest outflow of millionaires.

The UK is predicted to see the second-highest expatriation of millionaires in 2024, it said, with 9,500 likely to leave. This is double the 4,200 who left the UK last year.

The UK, particularly London, is feeling a steep reversal in its status as a hub for the ultrawealthy. Policy changes targeting the ultrawealthy ahead of elections this summer are to blame, according to Hannah White, director of the UK think tank Insitute for Government, per the report's press release.

According to the release, the UAE has positioned itself as a global "wealth magnet" thanks to its nonexistent income tax, "golden" visas, and luxury lifestyle.

This is the third year in a row that the Emirates has landed the top spot on the list.

Dubai, the UAE's luxurious epicenter, has seen a boom in real-estate investment, with luxury apartment complexes due to be completed in 2024 and 2025 selling out in just one day.

Attracting and retaining HNWIs is an important strategy in geopolitical relations.

Dominic Volek, the head of private clients at Henley & Partners, said millionaire migration could inject capital and talent into the host nations as a "debt-free source of funding for governments," per the report.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Elon Musk sure wants people to know he was the one to name OpenAI

Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Elon Musk.

  • Billionaire Elon Musk spoke to WPP CEO Mark Read in an interview at Cannes Lions on Wednesday.
  • On the topic of the future of AI, Musk reminded the audience he cofounded OpenAI as a nonprofit. 
  • He said he named the company after "open source," and made a dig at the direction it has taken.

Elon Musk reminded the audience at Cannes Lions on Wednesday that he was the person to name OpenAI as he made a jab at the direction the company has taken since then.

Musk took to the festival stage as a guest speaker in an interview with WPP CEO Mark Read, where he discussed technical innovation.

During the conversation, Read breached the topic of AI and the future of tech.

Musk, who cofounded OpenAI in 2015 but reportedly left the company three years later, has often traded barbs over the future of AI with OpenAI's current CEO, Sam Altman.

He even filed a lawsuit against the company, accusing them of betraying the firm's founding principles, which he has recently dropped.

On the topic of OpenAI, Musk told Read he had started the company, in part to offset Google.

"It was very much a unipolar world where Google was completely dominant in AI," he said.

Musk added that the company was "formed with a lot of good intentions." He said, "The 'open' in OpenAI was meant to stand for 'open source,'" adding, "I named it."

This isn't the first time Musk has alluded to his role in christening the AI company responsible for ChatGPT. In a post on X in 2023, he made a similar comment.

Musk reiterated his ongoing qualms with OpenAI with a final dig: "Now it's closed-source for maximum-profit AI, which is different from what was intended. I don't know how it got there."

This aligns with Musk's remarks about his displeasure with the current direction of OpenAI, which was founded as a nonprofit.

It shed that status in 2019, to operate as a "capped-profit" company to "raise investment capital and attract employees," per a company blog post at the time.

The company announced a partnership with Microsoft the same year, which initially invested $1 billion into OpenAI.

After launching publicly in November 2022, ChatGPT attracted 100 million users in just two months. Microsoft then increased its investment, reportedly pouring a further $10 billion into the AI firm.

Musk's pessimism about AI is largely directed at its development as a "for-profit" industry. He has been outspoken about the safety issues related to AI in the hands of corporate, for-profit entities. In 2020, Musk said he feared Google's Deepmind could one day effectively take over the world.

But Musk's discussion with Read suggested his opinion could be shifting. He told the executive: "In the positive scenario, the AI will be doing its best to make you happy. So that might work out pretty well."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Can anyone topple Nvidia as the king of artificial intelligence investments?

A boy with a gold crown stands stoically looking straight ahead.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

You would be hard-pressed to find an investor who doesn’t consider Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) the pinnacle of artificial intelligence (AI) companies. Its graphics processing units (GPUs), which crunch AI workloads, are best in class by a wide margin and have been used by practically every company interested in AI. 

But are there any companies that could dethrone Nvidia?

Nvidia’s direct competitors aren’t even close

Part of the fear of investing in Nvidia is wondering what will happen if and when the music stops. Right now, the company is firing on all cylinders. But the question remains: What happens when enough GPUs have been purchased to satisfy AI demand?

There are some factors influencing the answer to that question, such as the average lifespan of a GPU used for server computing. That is estimated to be around three to five years, which would mean there will be a replacement cycle. But if the demand for Nvidia GPUs is met, then the next round of AI technology might look somewhat different.

If that happens, which company could take the spot atop the AI mountain? Some might point to Advanced Micro Devices as a potential successor. AMD competes directly with Nvidia in the data center GPU space but has been getting smoked.

However, AMD has recently generated momentum with various cloud-computing providers starting to add its GPUs as an alternative. They don’t want to be devoted solely to Nvidia hardware because that would give it too much pricing power over them. But because Nvidia still has much better technology, AMD will likely only be considered as an alternative.

Another candidate is Taiwan Semiconductor, (TSMC for short), the chip foundry that supplies Nvidia and thereby makes its products possible. But TSMC also supplies chips to AMD and other companies, which makes it a neutral factor in the AI investment race.

Besides, TSMC expects massive growth driven by AI demand over the next few years. In its latest conference call, management said, “For the next five years, we forecast [AI revenue] to grow at 50% [compound annual growth rate] and increase to higher than 20% of our revenue by 2028.” That’s strong growth, but it also means Nvidia could continue its dominance since it’s a key customer for TSMC.

The companies applying AI depend on Nvidia

But all of the above is just the hardware side; what about application and use?

Microsoft and Alphabet are both massive customers for Nvidia’s GPUs. Not only do they have internal uses for them, but they also buy them to power their respective cloud computing services.

They also started designing their own AI chips, so they don’t have to buy them from Nvidia. However, these chips are highly workload-specific, so general-purpose GPUs like Nvidia’s will still account for the lion’s share of computing power.

Software companies like Palantir are also bringing AI capabilities to the masses. Its clients still need plenty of computing power to run its models, and it gives them the tools to create them. This could make the company a potential successor to Nvidia as a leading AI investment, since it will continue to see demand for its platform long after AI computing capacity is built out.

But all roads lead back to Nvidia, which is why it has been and will continue to be the most popular AI investment. Nvidia is on top of the AI world right now, and there currently doesn’t appear to be any company that can dethrone it. 

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Can anyone topple Nvidia as the king of artificial intelligence investments? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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 Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.