Author: openjargon

The big four banks are popular with income investors for good reason.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and the rest can all provide exposure to large, profitable businesses with fully franked dividends.

I remain positive on the better-quality names in that group, particularly Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). But many Australian income investors may already have meaningful exposure to the banks through direct shareholdings, superannuation, or index funds.

That is why I think it can be useful to look outside the big four as well.

Two ASX income shares I would consider are named in this article.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA Group is one income share I would buy outside the banks.

The company owns and operates energy infrastructure, including gas pipelines, power generation assets, storage, and related infrastructure across Australia.

I like APA because it gives investors exposure to a very different type of income stream.

Banks are closely tied to credit growth, margins, bad debts, housing, business lending, and the wider economy. APA is more connected to energy infrastructure, contracted revenue, regulated assets, and long-term demand for reliable energy supply.

That difference is useful. Australia’s energy system is changing, but I do not think that makes energy infrastructure irrelevant. In fact, reliable infrastructure may become even more important as the grid deals with renewable energy, industrial demand, gas reliability, and system flexibility.

APA is not without risk. Debt levels, interest rates, regulation, project execution, and energy policy can all affect the investment case. Investors also need to consider how the energy transition may shape the business over the very long term.

But I think APA’s asset base remains important. Pipelines and related infrastructure are difficult to replicate, and the company has a long record of paying distributions to investors.

For income investors wanting something outside the banking sector, I think APA offers a useful blend of yield, infrastructure exposure, and recurring cash flow.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

The second ASX income share I would consider is Charter Hall Long WALE REIT.

This real estate investment trust (REIT) owns a portfolio of long-leased properties across Australia. Its tenants include government, major corporates, and large operators across different sectors.

The appeal here is the lease profile. Long leases can provide better visibility over rental income, which can support distributions over time. That is attractive for investors who want income but do not want all of it tied to the banks.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT also owns a diversified portfolio, including assets across office, industrial, logistics, retail, and social infrastructure-style property. I like that spread because the income is not dependent on one tenant or one single property type.

There are risks to consider. REITs can be sensitive to interest rates, property valuations, debt costs, and investor sentiment towards listed property. Higher bond yields can make income assets less attractive, while weaker property markets can put pressure on valuations.

But I think that is also why listed property income shares can become interesting when the market is cautious.

For investors seeking income, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT offers something quite different from bank dividends. It provides exposure to rental income backed by a large property portfolio and long leases.

Foolish takeaway

I do not think income investors need to avoid the big four banks. They can still play a useful role, especially when the focus is fully franked dividends and large, profitable Australian businesses.

But concentration is important. If an investor already has plenty of exposure to Westpac and the other major banks, I think APA and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT could be worth considering as alternatives. They bring different income drivers, different risks, and exposure to infrastructure and property rather than bank earnings.

That kind of variety can be useful when building a more balanced income stream over time.

The post 2 ASX income shares I’d buy outside Westpac and the big four banks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How these 3 headwinds could sink CBA shares in 2026
• How low could CBA shares go?
• How to value the CBA share price
• TPG Telecom just raised its dividend. Here’s what that means for income investors
• How combining superannuation and ASX shares can set you up for retirement better than property

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are tumbling on Thursday, down 1.3% to 8,669 points.

Among the 11 market sectors, consumer staples is in the lead today, up 0.9%, while materials is down a hefty 3%.

Materials have been dragged lower by the major iron ore miners, including BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), down 3.2% to $62.81.

Let’s take a look at some new ratings for three ASX shares.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

The Goodman share price is $31.13, down 1.9% on Thursday and up 6% over six months.

Morgans has a buy rating and $36 price target on the market’s largest ASX 200 real estate share.

The broker said: 

GMG’s 3Q26 update reinforced a deliberate strategy: deploy balance-sheet capital ahead of customer commitments to win the race for power-enabled metro data centre (DC) capacity.

The structurally important note was management’s view that industry DC capex requirements likely exceed global capital market funding capacity, a backdrop that favours those with secured power, sites and locked-in capital partners.

We partially reverse the discretionary discount applied in our March sector update (-10% to -5%) reflecting growing conviction in the capital-scarcity moat and peer pre-commit validation, noting that GMG’s own leading indicators have not yet inflected.

Arafura Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: ARU)

The Arafura Rare Earths share price is 28 cents, down 1.1% today and up 3% over six months.

Philippe Bui from Medallion Financial Group has a hold rating on this ASX 300 rare earths share. 

Bui said (courtesy The Bull):

The rare earths company is developing the Nolans Project in the Northern Territory — Australia’s first fully integrated ore-to-oxide NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) operation, producing the critical input for electric vehicle motors and wind turbines.

With China controlling about 85 per cent of global processing and restricting exports, projects like Nolans are rare and strategically valuable.

The company just reached its final investment decision and recently received commitments under an institutional placement to raise $350 million.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

The Elders share price is $5.33, up 0.1% today and down 27% over six months.

John Athanasiou from Red Leaf Securities has a sell rating on this ASX 200 agriculture share.

Athanasiou said: 

The company’s exposure to agriculture, livestock and rural services make it highly sensitive to seasonal and commodity-driven swings.

While expansion through acquisitions has supported scale, it has also increased leverage, which, in our view, reduces balance sheet flexibility.

Without a clear cyclical upswing, the outlook remains challenging. Elders is exposed to elevated diesel prices, which remains a risk to the company’s cost base.

In our opinion, the stock offers limited defensive characteristics, making it more suitable as a sell than a hold at this stage of the cycle.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Goodman, Arafura Rare Earths, Elders shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Elders and Brambles shares
• Why Macquarie Technology is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the ASX
• Buy, hold, sell: 3 very popular ASX mining stocks
• Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Elders, and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are in the red today, dragged lower largely due to concerns over iron ore exports.

Meanwhile, on The Bull this week, Dylan Evans from Catapult Wealth explains his views on three ASX 200 shares.

Let’s check them out. 

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

The Transurban share price is $14.93, down 0.8% today and down 1% over six months.

Evans has a buy rating on this ASX 200 industrials share, and explains:  

TCL operates toll roads in Australia and the United States. It generates reliable inflation linked cash flows, underpinning a relatively defensive stock.

The shares are sensitive to rising interest rates, partially due to its significant debt, which, in our view, has weighed on the stock in the past few years.

During the same time, Transurban has been growing traffic volumes and has been involved in completing several significant projects, including the West Gate Tunnel in Melbourne.

Any easing in inflation and interest rates would boost the company’s performance.

In the meantime, Transurban offers an attractive dividend yield, reliable earnings and a development pipeline with long term growth potential.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

The Sonic Healthcare share price is $18.96, up 0.9% on Thursday and down 18% over six months.

Evans has a hold rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share, and says:

Sonic is a leading global provider of clinical laboratory services, including pathology and radiology. The company increased revenue by 17 per cent in the first half of 2026 when compared to the prior corresponding period. Net profit after tax was up 10 per cent.

The company is on track to achieve full year EBITDA guidance of between $1.87 billion to $1.95 billion on a constant currency basis.

If positive momentum continues, Sonic looks like a solid value play. Sonic was recently trading on a modest price/earnings multiple of about 17 times and a partially franked dividend yield of about 5.7 per cent.

An ageing population underpins demand for laboratory services, so SHL should be able to grow at high double digits over the long term.

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

The A2 Milk share price is $5.29, down 1.1% today and 44% over the past six months.

Evans has a sell rating on this ASX 200 consumer staples share, commenting:  

This infant milk formula company recently initiated a voluntary recall of three small batches of contaminated product sold only in the United States.

While the recall didn’t impact the key Chinese market, it poses a reputational risk in a country and segment that is sensitive to brand reputation.

A recent trading update revealed supply chain disruptions are constraining product availability despite strong underlying demand.

The shares have remained under pressure since April when the company downgraded guidance in full year 2026.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Transurban, Sonic Healthcare, A2 Milk shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buying Transurban shares? Here’s the dividend yield you’ll get today
• 3 ASX defensive stocks to buy while sharemarkets are volatile
• Which defensive shares are outperforming the ASX 200
• Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on A2 Milk and NAB shares
• Brokers rate these 5 ASX 200 shares as a sell!

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 tech shares are continuing to recover from a 48% sector smash between 29 August 2025 and 30 March 2026.

So far, the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) has recovered by an impressive 26% in just over two months.

By comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 2.5% over the same time period.

Fears over how artificial intelligence (AI) may impact software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses, in particular, contributed to the 48% rout.

However, James Gerrish from Shaw and Partners reckons software stocks have now bottomed, and there are good buys to be had.

In his regular Market Matters newsletter this week, Gerrish named three ASX 200 tech shares that his team is “long and bullish” on.

He says these stocks are well-placed for growth in 1H FY27, and all three are held in the team’s Active Growth Portfolio.

Let’s find out why.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

The WiseTech share price is $40.12, down 3% today and down 41% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

Since the ASX 200 tech sector turned a corner on 31 March, Wisetech shares have underperformed, lifting just 10%.

The Market Matters team sees 30% to 40% upside over the next 12 months for Wisetech shares.

Gerrish explained:

… we view WiseTech as more likely to be an AI beneficiary than a victim.

Its enormous logistics dataset, entrenched customer relationships and central position within global supply chains provide a strong foundation for embedding AI into the platform, potentially improving productivity, automation and customer outcomes while further strengthening its competitive moat.

The company has already said AI will allow it to reduce its workforce by around 30%, which, if executed well, would have a meaningful positive impact on margins and the bottom line.

With the stock now trading around 60% below its five-year valuation average — albeit from very elevated growth multiples — the risk/reward looks increasingly appealing in our opinion.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price is $80.96, down 3.5% today and down 28% YTD.

Since 31 March, Xero shares have recovered 15%. Like Wisetech, Xero is underperforming its ASX 200 tech sector peers for now.

Gerrish commented:

Despite the launch of its premium Ultra tier, the rollout of Xero’s AI-powered assistant and continued momentum in the US, the market remained focused on disruption risk, particularly following Anthropic’s unveiling of AI tools aimed at small businesses.

The bear case is that increasingly capable AI agents could automate many of the bookkeeping, reconciliation and administrative tasks that have traditionally underpinned accounting software.

The bull case is that Xero’s competitive advantage extends far beyond the user interface, encompassing proprietary transaction data, deep banking integrations, regulatory compliance capabilities and thousands of bank feeds that would be difficult for any AI-native challenger to replicate at scale.

With Xero now trading ~65% below its 5-year valuation, albeit extremely high in the first place, we like the risk/reward ~$80.

We can initially see ~20% upside for XRO from the $80 area…

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

The TechnologyOne share price is $32.35, down 2.2% on Thursday and up 16% YTD.

Since the ASX 200 tech sector pivoted on 31 March, TechnologyOne shares have lifted 22%.

Gerrish said:

We regard TNE as one of the best-positioned local software names to capitalise on AI.

Its strength lies in deep domain expertise across local government, higher education, healthcare and corporate services — specialised sectors where AI can enhance productivity, but where generic models often struggle with regulatory complexity, data security and operational nuance. Management has also been proactive in embedding AI across the product suite.

The core attraction remains TechnologyOne’s business model. Its software supports mission-critical functions including finance, payroll, human resources, assets and student administration, creating high switching costs and strong revenue visibility.

… TNE’s entrenched customer base, sector-specific expertise and recurring revenue model position it as one of the few ASX software companies whose competitive advantage may actually strengthen as AI adoption accelerates. The market clearly agrees for now.

We like the risk/reward around ~$32, initially seeing 20–25% upside from current levels.

The post 3 ASX 200 tech shares to buy now: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally?
• WiseTech, Cochlear, CSL shares: Can these beaten down stocks rebound in 2026?
• Job ads rose for the first time in three months. Here is why that is good news for these ASX shares
• 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) and Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB) shares have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) both year to date and over the past 12 months.

In afternoon trade on Thursday, Elders shares are up 1.1%, trading for $5.38 apiece.

Despite that uptick, shares in the ASX 200 agribusiness remain down 12.5% over the past 12 months and down 21% in 2026. Offering some solace to investors nursing those losses, Elders shares trade on a 6.7% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Brambles shares have had an even tougher year.

Up 2% today at $16.74 each, shares in the ASX 200 supply pallets and crates supplier are down 28% over 12 months and down 26.6% year to date. Brambles stock trades on a partly franked 3.9% trailing dividend yield.

To put this rather dismal performance in some perspective, the ASX 200 has gained 1.6% over the past year and is down 0.6% in 2026.

And looking ahead, Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou expects both stocks will continue to underperform over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Time to sell Brambles shares?

“This supply chain logistics giant has moved from a premium defensive compounder to a more challenged operational story following recent earnings and sales revenue downgrades,” Athanasiou said.

And rising costs are chief among those more challenging conditions.

According to Athanasiou:

Disruptions in its United States pallet pooling network have exposed execution issues, resulting in higher costs. While the CHEP business model remains structurally sound, short-term performance is weighed down by operational inefficiencies and inflationary pressures.

Summarising his sell recommendation on Brambles shares, Athanasiou concluded:

The downgrade cycle has shifted sentiment, with the market now questioning the sustainability of mid-term growth expectations. Until execution stabilises and margins recover, Brambles lacks the earnings momentum required to justify a premium multiple, leaving risk skewed to the downside, in our view. The shares have fallen from $22.10 on May 15 to trade at $16.34 on May 28.

Should I exit Elders shares today?

Atop recommending selling Brambles shares, Athanasiou also has a sell recommendation on Elders shares.

“The company’s exposure to agriculture, livestock and rural services make it highly sensitive to seasonal and commodity-driven swings,” he said.

And rising debt levels could pose further headwinds.

Athanasiou noted:

While expansion through acquisitions has supported scale, it has also increased leverage, which, in our view, reduces balance sheet flexibility. Without a clear cyclical upswing, the outlook remains challenging.

Then there’s the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and diesel prices.

According to Athanasiou:

Elders is exposed to elevated diesel prices, which remains a risk to the company’s cost base. In our opinion, the stock offers limited defensive characteristics, making it more suitable as a sell than a hold at this stage of the cycle. The shares have fallen from $7.20 on May 15 to trade at $5.58 on May 28.

The post Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Elders and Brambles shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Goodman, Arafura Rare Earths, Elders shares
• 3 ASX 200 shares to sell this week according to experts
• Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May
• Buy, hold, sell: Aristocrat Leisure, Brambles, Wesfarmers shares
• These were the worst-performing ASX 200 shares in May

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 1.25% lower at 8,675.6 points on Thursday.

Data shows 124 ASX 200 companies are in the red today.

This includes a hefty 3.7% share price decline for the market’s largest listed company, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

Meanwhile, several brokers have lifted their ratings on select ASX shares this week.

Let’s take a look.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)

The Endeavour share price is $2.98, up 3.7% today and down 19% in the calendar year to date (YTD).

Last week, Endeavour unveiled a strategy involving $300 million in cost savings by FY29, including $100 million in FY27.

The group wants to strengthen Dan Murphy’s price leadership, modernise BWS’ digital experience, and lift its hotels performance. 

Endeavour will divest non-core assets, including most of its winery and vineyard portfolio.

The group also lowered its dividend payout ratio to a range of 50% to 75% of underlying net profit after tax (NPAT).

Citi upgraded the ASX 200 consumer discretionary share to a buy rating on Wednesday.

However, the broker reduced its 12-month price target from $3.45 to $3.25.

This still implies a potential near-10% upside ahead.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP Group share price is $62.51, down 3.7% today, and up 40% over six months.

Germany’s DZ Bank AG upgraded the ASX 200 mining share to a hold rating this week.

DZ Bank has a $65 price target on BHP shares.

This suggests that only 4% upside is left for the next 12 months.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

The Graincorp share price is $5.09, up 2% today, and down 38% over six months.

Jarden upgraded the ASX 200 consumer staples share to a hold rating on Tuesday.

The broker lowered its price target from $5.50 to $5.40.

This implies potential capital growth of 6% over the next year.

Dicker Data Ltd (ASX: DDR)

The Dicker Data share price is $11.16, down 1.4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 technology share has lifted 22%.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Dicker Data shares to a buy rating this week.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $10.30 to $11.

This implies the tech stock is fully valued today.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) 

The Nufarm share price is $2.87, up 0.7% on Thursday and up 24% YTD.

UBS upgraded the chemical and seed technology company to a buy rating this week.

Following Nufarm’s FY25 results, the broker lifted its target on the ASX 200 agriculture share from $2.80 to $3.50.

This suggests a 22% upside is on the way.

Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM)

The Sims share price is $27.68, down 2.5% today and up 52% YTD.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Sims shares to a hold rating on Monday.

The broker has a $24 target, implying a 13% downside over the next 12 months.

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)

The Tabcorp share price is 80 cents, down 0.6% today and down 32% over the past month.

Morgans upgraded the ASX 200 consumer discretionary share to a buy rating this week.

The broker said:

Following the announcement of AUSTRAC’s investigation this month, the TAH share price has fallen approximately 37%.

While we expect the investigation to remain an overhang for the foreseeable future, at these levels the stock appears materially undervalued.

Current trading conditions remain supportive in our view and position the company well for a strong upcoming result, despite inherent uncertainty surrounding the scope of the investigation and the quantum of potential penalties.

Morgans has a share price target of $1.07, implying 34% potential capital growth ahead.

The post 7 ASX shares attracting upgraded ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Tabcorp, 4DMedical, BHP shares
• 3 ASX 200 shares reporting major insider buying and selling
• Why Chrysos, Endeavour, Racura, and Treasury Wine shares are racing higher today
• This beaten-down ASX 200 stock just jumped 5%. Is the market too negative?
• Why is the BHP share price sinking today?

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Dicker Data. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s fair to say that the vast majority of ASX investors who buy Transurban Group  (ASX: TCL) shares do so for the dividend potential this ASX income stock offers.

Transurban is renowned for being one of the most reliable dividend payers on the ASX. As the country’s largest toll road operator, this stock has one of the most stable business models around. Aside from owning almost every tolled road in Sydney, Transurban also counts major arterial routes in Melbourne and Brisbane in its infrastructure portfolio.

Many of the contracts that the company has over these toll roads allow decades of toll-collecting rights. In addition, most of these contracts permit Transurban to increase its tolls quarterly, and by at least the rate of inflation, if not more.

This has allowed Transurban to build up its reputation as a compelling dividend investment over decades.

But if an investor is considering buying Transurban shares today, what dividend yield might they expect to receive? That’s what we’ll dive into now.

Transurban shares: What does the dividend yield look like today?

At the time of writing, Transurban shares are going for a flat $15 each, down about 0.3% for the day thus far.

At this stock price, the toll road operator is trading on a trailing dividend yield of 4.47%.

This dividend yield is derived from the last two shareholder payments the company has dished out. The first of those was the 33 cents per share payout that hit investors’ bank accounts last August. The second, the dividend worth 34 cents per share that rolled out in February.

Both of these payments were amongst the highest Transurban has ever paid out, following the record 65 cents per share that was gifted to shareholders over FY2025.

However, they did not come fully franked. Due to Transurban’s corporate structure, its dividends rarely come with much in the way of franking. Its February dividend was completely unfranked, while August’s payout was partially franked, but at just 0.05%.

No dividend stock can be completely relied upon for future income. However, the future does look bright with Transuran. As my Fool colleague covered last month, the company has told investors to expect an annual haul of 69 cents per share for FY2026. That implies that the company’s second dividend of the year will be worth 35 cents per share.

If accurate, that would give Transurban a forward dividend yield of 4.6% at current pricing.

The post Buying Transurban shares? Here’s the dividend yield you’ll get today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX defensive stocks to buy while sharemarkets are volatile
• Which defensive shares are outperforming the ASX 200
• Forget term deposits and buy these ASX dividend shares in June
• ASX shares to buy now: How I’d invest a $1,000 lump sum
• 3 defensive ASX dividend shares I’d buy and hold

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is shaping up as one of the most-watched listings in stock market history.

The rocket, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) company is reportedly preparing to raise around US$75 billion through an initial public offering (IPO).

The shares are expected to be priced at US$135 each.

That would value SpaceX at roughly US$1.75 trillion, or about $2.7 trillion.

If it goes ahead, the float would be far larger than Saudi Aramco‘s 2019 IPO, which raised US$25.6 billion and still holds the record for the world’s biggest listing.

It is worth noting that SpaceX isn’t a normal private company, finally coming to market.

It has become one of the most recognisable names in global tech, with a business spanning reusable rockets, satellite launches, Starlink internet, defence work, and now AI.

The company is expected to begin trading as early as next week.

Why investors are excited

SpaceX generated about US$18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, with Starlink accounting for most of the company’s sales.

Starlink is also understood to be the company’s main profit driver, helped by demand for satellite internet in remote and underserved areas.

But investors aren’t just looking at Starlink.

SpaceX is trying to position itself as a company sitting across space, communications, defence, transport, and AI infrastructure.

That’s why the valuation is being watched so closely.

Unlike many newer technology floats, SpaceX already has revenue, customers, and a track record of launching hardware at scale.

Musk owns a large stake in SpaceX and is expected to retain strong voting control after the IPO.

Some reports suggest a successful float could make him the first person in the world to reach a US$1 trillion net worth.

Is the IPO price already too hot?

The harder question is whether the IPO price already captures too much good news.

Some analysts have put a much lower fair value estimate on SpaceX than the expected IPO valuation.

The concern is that investors may be giving SpaceX a lot of credit for future opportunities that are still uncertain.

Investors are being asked to pay for years of expected growth in Starlink, future launch demand, possible AI infrastructure revenue, and long-term space ambitions.

While some of those markets could be enormous, they also come with high costs and execution risk.

And then there’s talk about the float size.

Only a small portion of SpaceX stock is expected to trade freely at first.

This could help drive early demand, especially from index funds and large institutions looking for exposure after the listing.

Foolish Takeaway

The SpaceX IPO is likely to attract massive attention from retail and institutional investors.

But the valuation is already pricing in a lot of future growth.

Investors may be looking at one of the world’s most exciting companies, but they will not be getting it cheaply.

The post Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO could smash records. But is the hype already too hot? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buying Transurban shares? Here’s the dividend yield you’ll get today
• Why is the ASX 200 being smashed today?
• How these 3 headwinds could sink CBA shares in 2026
• Buy, hold, sell: Tabcorp, 4DMedical, BHP shares
• 3 ASX 200 shares reporting major insider buying and selling

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having its worst session in days as investors take some risk off the table.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 1.41% to 8,661 points.

The move has pushed the ASX 200 back from a recent 4-week high, with the index touching a low of 8,652.2 points during the session.

At the latest check, 125 of the ASX 200’s 200 stocks are in the red, while 6 of the 11 sectors are trading lower.

The weakness follows a soft lead from Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) fell 1.21%, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) dropped 0.74%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) lost 0.89% as Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment.

Miners are doing most of the damage

The biggest hit is coming from the resources side of the market.

The S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR) is down 2.86%, making it one of the weakest parts of the local market today.

The pressure follows weaker moves across several major commodities.

According to Trading Economics, copper futures fell 2.5% to US$6.075 a pound, while Singapore iron ore futures dropped 1.9% to US$103.20 a tonne.

As a result, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 3.27% to $62.79, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are down 3.37% to $187.91.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) is also under pressure, with its shares down 3.33% to $21.19.

Gold miners are also weaker after the gold price slipped.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are sliding 4.70% to $20.69, and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) shares are trading 2.91% lower to $19.68.

Uranium names have been hit even harder.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares are sinking 8.78% to $10.81, while Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are falling 4.07% to $1.295.

The selling follows weakness in offshore uranium-linked funds, including the Global X Uranium Miners ETF and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.

Tech and banks are also lower

Technology shares are also taking some heat after helping the market rally earlier in the week.

The S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) is down 1.45%, adding another drag on the benchmark.

Financials are also lower, with the major banks trading down after recent strength.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are down 1.32% to $162.58, with Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) falling 2.15% to $35.08.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are down 1.42% to $36.71, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is trading 1.27% lower at $34.22.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is also in the red, with its shares down 2.35% to $233.39.

The post Why is the ASX 200 being smashed today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Treasury Wine Estates kicks off 2026 Investor Day with a renewed transformation plan
• Pro Medicus announces $16m US contract renewal
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why the ASX 200 is rallying despite a weaker growth warning

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are sinking today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for $164.76. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $162.17, down 1.6%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.5% at this same time amid investor concerns over the renewed military attacks in the Middle East.

Taking a step back, CBA shares have slumped 10.8% since this time last year, materially underperforming the 1.4% 12-month gains posted by the benchmark index.

Though we shouldn’t dismiss the two fully-franked dividends CommBank has paid out to eligible stockholders over this time. CBA currently trades on a 3.1% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Looking ahead, Medallion Financial Group’s Philippe Bui forecasts ongoing difficulties for Australia’s biggest bank over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Time to sell CBA shares?

“Australia’s largest bank carries a premium valuation,” Bui said.

Citing the three headwinds that could put ongoing pressure on the ASX 200 bank stock, Bui noted, “Slowing credit growth, sticky inflation and proposed property tax changes are headwinds for this mortgage heavy business.”

Summarising his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Bui concluded:

Sentiment took a material hit recently when the stock posted its largest single-day decline of about 10% since listing in 1991 following a disappointing trading update. Earnings momentum is fading and the valuation is still trading at a significant premium to peers.

As for that significant premium, CBA stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 26 times.

As for the other big four Aussie banks, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares also trade on a P/E ratio of around 17 times.

A more bullish take on the ASX 200 bank stock

Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou came out with a more bullish assessment on Australia’s biggest bank stock on The Bull.

Explaining his hold recommendation on CBA shares, Athanasiou said:

CBA remains the highest quality franchise in Australian banking, supported by its dominant deposit base, strong digital ecosystem and industry leading profitability.

Earnings remain resilient, but growth is moderating as mortgage competition intensifies and credit expansion normalises. Credit quality is stable and dividends remain highly reliable, reinforcing its defensive appeal.

But Athanasiou also has concerns over CBA valuation relative to its peers. He noted:

However, the key issue is valuation, with the stock trading at a significant premium to domestic and global peers. Much of the quality and stability is already priced in, leaving limited upside without a material macro or earnings surprise to the upside.

The post How these 3 headwinds could sink CBA shares in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How low could CBA shares go?
• How to value the CBA share price
• How combining superannuation and ASX shares can set you up for retirement better than property
• Why the RBA’s next move could be the most important event for ASX shares in 2026
• Is this ASX financials stock a better buy than CBA shares?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.