Author: openjargon

One small-cap ASX stock is giving shareholders something to smile about on Monday.

Titomic Ltd (ASX: TTT) shares are up 10.87% to 12.8 cents after the company announced a new defence contract before the market opened.

That puts Titomic’s market value at around $228 million.

It comes after a difficult stretch for shareholders, with the stock still down around 47% in 2026 and 50% over the past 12 months.

So, what was in this morning’s release?

A US$5 million contract

Titomic revealed that its US subsidiary has been awarded a US$5 million contract by the US Air Force.

The company will supply, integrate and commission one of its TKF 1000 cold spray systems at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma.

The system can be used for things such as component repair, restoring worn parts, corrosion protection and additive manufacturing.

Titomic said the contract places its technology inside one of the largest US Air Force maintenance and repair facilities in the country.

Delivery is scheduled for the third quarter of 2027, with revenue to be recognised as the company completes different stages of the contract.

More orders are starting to come through

It’s not like this deal hasn’t arrived completely out of the blue.

Titomic has been spending the past few years trying to turn trials and qualification work into commercial orders.

Just recently, it announced a number of US orders worth more than $750,000 across the aerospace, defence, space, energy and oil and gas industries.

The company has also expanded its Huntsville facility as it builds manufacturing capacity in the United States.

However, there’s still plenty of work ahead.

Titomic is still a loss-making company, and earlier this month it raised $16.5 million through a share placement at 13 cents apiece.

Interestingly, even after today’s rally, the shares are still trading just below that placement price.

How high could the shares go?

There is certainly a big gap between the current share price and some broker targets.

TipRanks shows two recent analyst ratings.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and 46 cent price target, while Ord Minnett has a hold rating and 18 cent target.

That gives an average target of 32 cents, or about 150% above where the stock stands today.

On the other hand, Morningstar is far more conservative, with a fair value estimate of 14.8 cents.

This just shows how divided analysts remain on the stock.

Nonetheless, if Titomic can keep winning big defence contracts, those higher targets could become a little more realistic.

The post Guess which ASX stock is rocketing 10% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is the NAB share price a buy at $38.48?
• Which ASX gold company is Morgans’ preferred mid cap buy?
• PLS shares have soared 107% in a year! Is the ASX 200 lithium stock now a buy, hold or sell?
• My top ASX passive income stocks for the next 10 years
• Why I’d buy Santos and Woodside shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price is trading around $38.48 on Monday.

For investors looking at the major banks, NAB offers a combination of earnings, dividends, and exposure to Australian business banking.

At this price, I think the shares deserve a closer look.

Why I like NAB

One of the main reasons I am positive on NAB is its strong position in business banking.

The bank has deep relationships with Australian small and medium-sized businesses, giving it exposure to lending, deposits, payments, and other financial services.

I like that because it gives NAB another avenue for growth alongside its large consumer banking operations.

Australian banking is still highly competitive, particularly in mortgages, and I would not expect earnings to race higher every year.

But NAB has a sizeable customer base, strong market positions, and a business banking franchise that I think can continue supporting earnings over the long term.

What does the valuation look like?

The next question is whether investors are paying a sensible price.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for earnings per share of $2.38 in FY26, increasing to $2.54 in FY27.

At $38.48, that puts NAB on a PE ratio of approximately 16 times forecast FY26 earnings and around 15 times FY27 earnings.

I would not describe that as bargain territory. But I also do not think the valuation is excessive for a major Australian bank with a strong franchise and the prospect of modest earnings growth.

If NAB delivers something close to current expectations, I think today’s price leaves room for reasonable capital growth over time.

The dividend remains a big attraction

For many investors, NAB is just as much an income stock as it is a capital growth investment.

That is an important part of the case for me.

CommSec’s consensus forecasts point to fully franked dividends of $1.70 per share in FY26 and $1.72 in FY27.

At the current share price, those payments would represent dividend yields of approximately 4.4% and 4.5%, respectively, before taking any potential benefit from franking credits into account.

I think that is a solid level of income from a business I would also be comfortable owning for the long term.

What would make me cautious?

NAB still faces the same pressures as the rest of the banking sector.

Competition for customers can put pressure on margins, while weaker economic conditions could increase bad debts and slow credit growth.

The shares also would not look nearly as interesting if earnings failed to grow as expected.

Those are risks I would keep in mind, particularly after the strong performance Australian bank shares have delivered over recent years.

Foolish takeaway

At $38.48, I think the NAB share price is a buy.

The valuation looks reasonable rather than cheap, but I like the bank’s business banking position and the prospect of earnings moving higher in FY27.

Add a fully franked prospective dividend yield of around 4.4% to 4.5%, and I think investors are being offered a good balance of income and potential capital growth at today’s price.

The post Is the NAB share price a buy at $38.48? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 9 ASX shares just upgraded by the experts
• ASX 200 dives to a 6-week low. What’s behind today’s sell-off?
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $100 a day in passive income?
• $10,000 invested in Westpac and NAB shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) have been all but flat over the past year, despite large fluctuations over that period.

But the brokerage house Morgans is predicting decent share price upside for the mid-tier gold producer, with a bullish target, which I’ll get to shortly.

First, let’s see what they’re saying about the company.

New guidance imminent from this ASX gold company

Morgans said Ramelius is expected to release guidance for FY27 and an updated outlook out to FY30 later this month.

The broker said:

On production, we expect FY27 guidance to remain in line with the previous 200-220koz range, likely trending to the upper-end. Beyond FY27, we see scope for upside to the 2025 outlook through FY30. Increased mining rates at Break of Day following the Stage 2 cutback, along with mine life extensions at Penny, should drive higher head grades through FY27 and FY28. Gilbey’s, not previously included in the outlook numbers, has the potential to be a key driver of production growth from FY29, displacing lower-grade mill feed.

Morgans said Ramelius had flagged that costs could head higher, “driven by ongoing inflationary pressures across labour, mining services and diesel”.

The broker added:

Management indicated cost inflation of up to 8% across key operating inputs, while a partially hedged diesel position provides some protection. In addition, an extra ~A$30m of sustaining capital at Galaxy aimed to lift mining rates from 600ktpa to 800ktpa is expected to increase costs in FY27.

Morgans said that, regarding dividend payments, it believed Ramelius was well-positioned to continue generating strong cash flows and returning capital to shareholders.

Ramelius Resources shares looking cheap

The broker maintained its buy rating on Ramelius shares, but reduced its price target from $5.80 to $4.74.

This compares to the current price of $3.75.

The broker added:

RMS remains our preferred mid-cap gold exposure, supported by a strong balance sheet, low cost operations and a clear pathway to production growth through the Mt Magnet hub and Rebecca Roe. The divestment of Edna May reinforces our view of management’s disciplined capital allocation, crystallising value from a non-core asset while focusing attention to higher-return growth opportunities. We continue to view RMS as one of the highest-quality operators in the Australian gold sector.

Ramelius announced on Monday it had awarded the $313 million Mount Magnet Expansion contract to NRW Holdings Ltd (ASX: NWH).

The scope of work includes the construction of a new crushing circuit and coarse ore stockpile, installation of a new grinding circuit, additional leach tanks, and associated gold processing infrastructure, resulting in an additional 3 million tonnes per annum of processing capacity.

Ramelius is valued at $7.06 billion.

The post Which ASX gold company is Morgans’ preferred mid cap buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 33 ASX shares going ex-dividend next week
• Why is everyone talking about Coles, Ramelius Resources and Woodside shares on Tuesday?
• Ramelius Resources share price on watch amid 79% surge in Ore Reserves
• 3 ASX 200 gold stocks jumping higher on big news today
• Ramelius Resources reports profit drop, expands growth plans in FY26 earnings

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Despite a material retrace since May’s all-time highs, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have more than doubled investor’s money over the past year.

In late morning trade on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock– formerly known as Pilbara Minerals – are changing hands for $4.47 apiece.

That sees the share price up 106.7% in 12 months, smashing the 1.1% one-year losses posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

And we’ve yet to include the final FY 2026 PLS dividend.

As you may know, PLS suspended its dividend payouts in 2024 following the global lithium price crash of 2023.

But with the spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) price up 95% over the past 12 months, PLS declared a final fully-franked dividend of 5 cents per share.

The ASX lithium stock traded ex-dividend on 2 September. If you owned PLS shares at market close on 1 September, you can expect to see that passive income hit your bank account next week, on 24 September.

Of course, that dividend and the remarkable one-year share price gains are all water under the bridge today.

And, while well up over 12 months, the spodumene price has fallen around 29% since its mid-May highs.

That’s seen short sellers come out to bet against the soaring ASX lithium stock. Indeed, as of market opening this morning, 11.2% of the miner’s shares were held short, putting it among the top ten most shorted stocks on the ASX this week.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Are PLS shares still a good buy today?

Baker Young’s Toby Grimm recently analysed the outlook for the soaring Aussie lithium miner (courtesy of The Bull).

“This lithium producer generated group revenue of $1.934 billion in full year 2026, up 152 per cent on the prior corresponding period,” he noted.

“It was driven by a 121 per cent increase in the average realised price and record sales volumes,” Grimm added.

But with PLS shares having more than doubled in a year, Grimm issued a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.

He concluded:

However, in our view, considerable optimism is already priced into the stock. Further details, including the benefits and risks, of potentially expanding the Pilgangoora operations are expected to be released in the December quarter.

After a strong share price run in the past year, we would consider cashing in some gains at these levels.

The post PLS shares have soared 107% in a year! Is the ASX 200 lithium stock now a buy, hold or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I think passive income is most valuable when you can see it continuing well into the future.

That means looking beyond the dividend available today and thinking about what could support those payments over the next decade.

With that said, these four ASX passive income stocks would be high on my list.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA would be my first choice among the major banks.

Its dividend is supported by one of Australia’s strongest banking franchises, with millions of customers using the company for home loans, deposits, business banking, credit cards, and other financial services.

I particularly like CBA’s technology and customer relationships. Its digital capabilities make it easier to keep customers within the bank and offer them additional products over time.

Australian banking will always be competitive, and I would watch CBA’s premium valuation closely.

But if I were choosing a bank to provide income for the next decade, its combination of earnings strength and fully franked dividends would put it near the top of my list.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

Aurizon gives income investors exposure to a completely different part of the economy.

The company operates rail freight services and owns rail infrastructure used to move commodities across Australia.

I like the infrastructure side of the business because these assets are difficult and expensive to replicate. Aurizon’s Network operation also earns revenue from customers using its rail infrastructure rather than relying entirely on the profitability of individual commodity producers.

There will still be fluctuations in freight volumes and commodity markets.

Even so, I think the essential nature of its transport infrastructure can support substantial cash generation and shareholder distributions over the long term.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN)

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT would add property income to the mix.

The real estate investment trust owns properties centred around everyday spending, including supermarkets, neighbourhood retail centres, and other assets that consumers regularly visit.

I think that focus makes sense for an income investment.

People may delay large discretionary purchases when household budgets become tight, but groceries and other everyday needs remain part of regular spending.

As rents increase and the portfolio develops over time, there is also potential for the underlying income generated by these properties to grow.

Interest rates and property valuations can create volatility, so I would keep an eye on debt levels and funding costs.

But for a decade-long income portfolio, I like the type of property exposure the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT provides.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban would round out my four picks.

The company operates major toll roads in Australia and North America, including CityLink in Melbourne, Cross City Tunnel in Sydney, and AirportLinkM7 in Brisbane.

Traffic volumes can grow as populations increase and cities become busier, while contractual toll increases provide another way for revenue to rise over time.

That creates the potential for dividends to increase as the underlying cash flows expand.

Transurban carries substantial debt and requires plenty of capital, so it is not a risk-free income investment. But its roads are long-life assets that millions of motorists rely on.

Foolish takeaway

If I were building passive income for the next 10 years, I would want more than a collection of today’s highest-yielding shares.

CBA, Aurizon, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, and Transurban give me income supported by banking, freight infrastructure, everyday retail property, and toll roads.

I think that gives the portfolio several sources of cash flow while still leaving room for those payments to grow over time.

The post My top ASX passive income stocks for the next 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why I’d buy Santos and Woodside shares today
• Experts name CBA and these big-name ASX 200 shares as sells this week
• Experts name 3 top ASX shares to buy this week
• Buy, hold, sell: NextDC, South32, CBA shares
• Are ASX shares heading for a crash? Here’s how I’m preparing

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares have already delivered stockholders some smashing gains in 2026.

And both S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stocks are outperforming again today.

In morning trade on Monday, Santos shares are swapping hands for $8.68 apiece, up 1%. Woodside shares are trading for $33.14 each, up 0.9%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is just about flat at this same time.

Taking a step back, the ASX 200 is up a slender 0.2% so far in 2026. That compares to the 41.2% year-to-date gains for Santos stock and the 40.1% gains posted by Woodside.

Atop those capital gains, both ASX 200 energy stocks have paid (or shortly will pay) two dividends this calendar year, making them appealing passive income plays.

Santos shares currently trade on a 3.5% unfranked dividend yield, while Woodside shares trade on a fully-franked 4.9% dividend yield. That equates to a 7% yield grossed up.

What’s been sending the ASX 200 energy stocks flying?

The Aussie oil and gas giants have been clear beneficiaries of surging global oil prices in the wake of the Iran war.

Indeed, on 1 January, Brent crude oil was trading for a mere US$60.85 per barrel. The oil price then topped US$118 per barrel in April, before sinking back to US$72.01 per barrel in July.

But oil has been on the rise again since then, and Brent surged back to US$107.36 per barrel over the weekend as the Middle East conflict heated back up.

That means the vital Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route is unlikely to reopen for normal business anytime soon.

And with Iranian-backed Houthi forces increasing their attacks over the weekend and threatening to block another Red Sea shipping chokepoint, oil supplies could remain restricted for some time.

While that’s bad news for inflation and the economy, it could support further gains in Santos and Woodside shares, as well as boost their next round of dividends.

Why Santos and Woodside shares still look like a good buy

Despite their strong outperformance already this year, I think Santos and Woodside shares are well-placed to keep outperforming in the year ahead.

Just how well they perform will depend to a significant extent on global oil prices.

On that front, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) head of commodities Vivek Dhar said (quoted by the Australian Financial Review):

US tolerance to delay any peace deal with Iran … rising Chinese imports and lower supply outside the Middle East in 2026 indicate that Brent oil futures may stay above US$100 a barrel for longer than it did in late July.

RBC Capital Markets head of commodity strategy Helima Croft added, “Maritime traffic … is gravely imperilled by the Houthi advances, bringing into focus our high oil price forecast.”

Croft noted that the latest attacks had “reduced the efficacy of one of the key oil release valves for the six-month Iran war”.

Croft said that if the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia escalated, it could see the oil price hit US$118 per barrel in 2026 and potentially reach US$130 per barrel in 2027.

At those levels, both ASX 200 energy stocks would see their profit margins grow, likely supporting higher dividends and spurring further increases in the Santos and Woodside share price.

The post Why I’d buy Santos and Woodside shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• My top ASX passive income stocks for the next 10 years
• Experts name CBA and these big-name ASX 200 shares as sells this week
• If I buy $4,000 of Woodside shares, how much dividend income will I receive?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Buy, hold, sell: NextDC, South32, CBA shares

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have had a tough run on the market recently.

The shares are trading around $9.01 today, well below their 52-week high of $11.39.

I think that weakness has made the valuation more interesting, particularly for investors prepared to look beyond the next few months.

Here’s why I would invest $10,000 in Qantas shares today.

The underlying business still looks strong

Qantas remains in a powerful position in Australian aviation.

Its domestic network gives the group strong exposure to business and leisure travel, while Jetstar provides a lower-cost option for customers who are more sensitive to price.

I also like the contribution from Qantas Loyalty. Its Frequent Flyer program gives the company another way to earn from its customer base outside the airline itself, while also encouraging passengers to remain within the wider Qantas ecosystem.

Then there is the fleet renewal program and Project Sunrise, which should gradually modernise the airline and expand what Qantas can offer on long-haul routes.

None of those opportunities depends on the share price recovering quickly. They are reasons I think the business itself can keep improving over the coming years.

Near-term pressure would not put me off

One issue I would watch closely is the oil price. Fuel is a major expense for airlines, so a sustained rise in oil prices could put pressure on Qantas’ margins in the near term.

That could make earnings more volatile than investors would like and is one risk I would keep in mind at the current price.

I would not ignore that risk. At the same time, I still think Qantas is well placed to deliver solid earnings over the next few years. The company has significant scale, a strong domestic position, multiple brands, and several sources of revenue beyond simply selling airline seats.

For me, that gives the business more resilience than the share price currently seems to imply.

The valuation looks attractive

I think Qantas shares are looking attractive at current prices.

According to CommSec, consensus forecasts point to earnings per share of $1.04 in FY27, rising to $1.30 in FY28 and $1.50 in FY29.

At $9.01, Qantas is trading on a PE ratio of roughly 8.7 times forecast FY27 earnings.

If the FY29 estimate is achieved, that multiple falls to around six times earnings.

I think that looks cheap enough to compensate for some of the risks that come with owning an airline.

Investors may also receive a growing stream of dividends while waiting.

Consensus forecasts suggest dividends per share of 39.6 cents in FY27, 43.1 cents in FY28, and 49.6 cents in FY29.

At today’s share price, those estimates represent forward dividend yields of roughly 4.4%, 4.8%, and 5.5%, respectively.

Foolish takeaway

I would be comfortable investing $10,000 into Qantas shares at current levels.

The airline industry will always bring volatility, but Qantas has several strong businesses underneath the headline brand and a clear path to higher earnings if current expectations are met.

At around $9.01, I think the shares offer enough value to make that risk worthwhile.

The post Why I’d invest $10,000 into Qantas shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Looking to bank the final Qantas dividend? You’d better hurry!
• How many Qantas shares do I need to buy for $5,000 of passive income in FY27?
• 33 ASX shares going ex-dividend next week
• Top 3 ASX 200 shares now below their 200-day moving average
• 3 ASX 200 shares tipped to return 27% to 87%

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) were trading more than 5% higher on Monday after the company secured a key approval from the US Food and Drug Administration.

New drug gets the regulator’s tick

The company said in a statement to the ASX that the FDA had approved its new drug application for Pixclara, an amino acid positron emission tomography (PET) drug for imaging gliomas (brain cancer).

Telix shares traded as high as $17.65 before settling back to be 5.4% higher at $16.52.

RBC Capital Markets said it was positive for the company. The broker has a $19 price target on Telix shares.

The broker said:

Telix has announced the FDA has approved Pixclara, the company’s imaging agent for use in characterising recurrent or progressive brain cancer (glioma). Pixclara is the first FDA-approved targeted amino acid PET imaging agent for glioma in the United States. Importantly, this demonstrates the company’s ability to overcome the initial setback from the Complete Response Letter and sets the foundation for the company’s complementary prospective therapeutic asset, TLX-101-Tx, as well as further indication expansion within brain metastases.

RBC estimated the total addressable market for Pixclara’s current use to be US$140 to US$160 million per year.

The broker added:

Assuming a penetration rate of ~60% in FY35, we estimate Pixclara’s first indication would be valued at $0.56/share with further upside potential of $0.62/share if Pixclara achieves ~80% penetration. If the company is successful in securing approval to expand Pixclara’s indication to include brain metastases, we estimate this could potentially add as much as ~$3.85/share to our price target.

Large unmet need

Telix said gliomas were the most common form of central nervous system cancer, accounting for approximately 30% of all brain and central nervous system tumours and 80% of all malignant brain tumours.

The company said about 24,000 new glioma cases were diagnosed each year in the US.

Telix Precision Medicine Chief Executive Officer Kevin Richardson said:

FDA approval of Pixclara will enable broad access in the U.S. to FET-PET imaging, which is already recognized in international clinical practice guidelines. As the first FDA-approved PET imaging drug for glioma, Pixclara will provide physicians in the U.S. with more certainty in their diagnoses and greater confidence in their treatment planning for patients.

Pixclara is a small molecule targeting compound that is labelled with a diagnostic radioisotope, fluorine-18.

After administration into the bloodstream, Pixclara targets membrane transport proteins known as L-type amino acid transporters 1 and 2.

Once bound, energy emissions from the radioisotope can be detected by a PET scanner.

Telix is valued at $5.32 billion.

The post Why are Telix Pharmaceuticals shares charging higher today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Telix Pharmaceuticals shares: FDA approves Pixclara brain cancer drug
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• Telix shares are up 98%: Is there more upside to come?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Less than 3 weeks ago, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares were trading at record highs.

Now they’re heading the other way.

The mining giant is down another 1.13% to $60.18 on Monday morning, extending a sell-off that started late last week.

BHP closed at $64.58 last Wednesday, so the stock has dropped around 6.8% in just 3 trading sessions.

Friday did most of the damage, with the shares dropping 4.05% as mining shares were hit by uncertainty around US copper tariffs.

After such a quick pullback, some investors may be wondering whether BHP is starting to look cheap again.

I’m not sure we’re there yet.

The rally has still been huge

The first thing I’d like to point out is just how far BHP shares have already run.

Even after the recent fall, the stock is still up around 33% in 2026.

It is now about 13% below its 52-week high of $68.77, reached in late August.

So, while the 6.8% drop looks significant, BHP is coming off a very strong run.

The business itself has also been performing well.

FY26 revenue increased 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA rose 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt fell to US$8.7 billion, and the full-year dividend increased to 172 US cents per share.

Copper has become a large part of the business, generating around 54% of underlying EBITDA last year.

Is BHP actually cheap?

This is where I think things get more interesting.

The average 12-month broker price target tracked by TipRanks is $59.23, around 2% below today’s share price.

Of the 15 analysts shown, 13 have a hold rating, with only 1 buy and 1 sell.

There’s also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.

At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.

Would I buy after the fall?

I can see why investors might be tempted to buy after the latest decline.

BHP is still a very profitable business, and its growing exposure to copper gives investors another reason to stay interested.

But there are still a few things to watch, including softer iron ore prices and ongoing labour negotiations at Port Hedland.

At $60.18, I think BHP looks more attractive than it did near $69.

With broker targets clustered close to the current price, I’d still want BHP to fall a little further before buying.

The post Down almost 7% in 3 days, are BHP shares finally good value? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are ASX shares heading for a crash? Here’s how I’m preparing
• Down almost 10%! Why are ASX copper shares tanking?
• Iron ore is back below US$100. Are BHP and Rio Tinto shares still buys?
• ASX 200 dives to a 6-week low. What’s behind today’s sell-off?
• Up 62% in a year are BHP shares now a buy, hold or sell?

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

“Could the next financial crisis already be sitting inside your superannuation account?” Wealth Within chief analyst and founder Dale Gillham posited over the weekend.

“It sounds alarmist, but regulators are increasingly asking it as Australia’s private credit market has grown to around $250 billion,” he added.

That compares to Australia’s total super assets of around $4.4 trillion.

What new crisis is brewing for superannuation accounts?

The crisis Gillham is talking about is the recent collapse of residential property developer Bathla Group.

Amid slumping property sales, high interest rates, and rising labour and material costs, Bathla entered into voluntary administration in August. The company has around $3.4 billion in liabilities, which are largely held by private credit lenders.

Gillham said the collapse has exposed dangerous cracks in Australia’s private credit market, putting millions of superannuation accounts at risk amid ongoing elevated interest rates.

The level of that risk will depend, to some extent, on how soon you plan to retire, and in which asset classes you’ve invested your superannuation.

“ASIC has repeatedly highlighted the growing connection between private credit and the super sector, warning investors to better understand the risks involved,” Gillham said.

He noted:

What was once a niche corner of finance has become one of the country’s fastest-growing sources of funding. Most Australians have probably never heard of private credit. Yet many could already have exposure through their superannuation.

The bigger picture

Gillham said that Bathla’s collapse wasn’t the real story behind the growing risk to millions of superannuation accounts. However, the property developer’s insolvency had “thrust those risks into the spotlight”.

He said, “The real issue is that many of the conditions that could place pressure on private credit are already emerging.”

Gillham explained:

Interest rates remain elevated, inflation has proven more persistent than many expected, construction costs remain significantly higher than before the pandemic and parts of the property market are beginning to soften.

At the same time, developers who borrowed heavily during years of ultra-low interest rates are being forced to refinance at much higher borrowing costs.

Which would seem to make Bathla a bit of a canary in a coal mine situation.

Indeed, Gillham noted, “Pressure then begins to build across the entire system, and that is where the risk to superannuation begins.”

He added:

If several major developers fail within a short period, fund managers may be forced to write down the value of their loans. Those write-downs could then trigger redemption requests from investors seeking to reduce their exposure.

Gillham concluded, “The real risk is that Bathla won’t be remembered as an isolated collapse, but as the first domino to fall.”

The post Did this $3.4 billion Black Swan event just put your superannuation at risk? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.