Author: openjargon

The ASX dividend stock Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (ASX: BLX) has fallen by 56%. When a cyclical business falls that far, I think it could be a great buying opportunity.

This business is a leading lighting retailer in Australia, with a major retail store network, as well as having commercial customers, international sales and a property portfolio.

Let’s look at how rewarding the ASX dividend stock could be for cash dividend payments.

Dividend projections for the next few years

The company is certainly facing an interesting outlook considering the higher interest rates and elevated inflation. It has certainly fallen a lot – more than 50%. It could be a good idea to invest when the market is fearful about the situation.

The projection on Commsec suggests the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 7 cents in FY26. That translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 6.1%, including franking credits. This would represent a year-over-year decline in the payout. I think that’s a great starting point for the yield to grow from there.

After FY26, the forecast on CMC Invest suggests the business could hike its payout in the two subsequent years.

The projection on CMC Invest suggests the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 8.1 cents per share in FY27, which would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 7%, including franking credits.

After that, the estimate on CMC Invest suggests the business could deliver an annual dividend per share of 9 cents per share in FY28. That would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.8%, including franking credits.

Compelling foundations for the ASX dividend stock’s growth

I believe the business has several strengths that can help it in the future.

For starters, the company is still rolling out new locations in its local market, which gives it the opportunity to grow sales and improve its scale benefits, which could help increase its gross profit margin.

The company could continue to increase its number of e-commerce and trade customer sales, which gives the company more growth avenues.

Finally, the company is increasing its presence internationally, which is a large addressable market if the company can get that right. In the FY26 half-year result, its international sales increased by 13.5%, with sales increasing in all regions.

According to the forecast on CMC Invest, the Beacon Lighting share price is valued at 13x FY26’s estimated earnings.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 56% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

At the start of each week, I like to look at ASIC’s short position report to find out which shares are being targeted by short sellers.

This is because I believe it is well worth keeping a close eye on short interest levels as high levels can sometimes be a sign that something isn’t quite right with a company.

With that in mind, here are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX this week according to ASIC:

• Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT) is now the most shorted ASX share with short interest of 16%, which is up week on week. This uranium producer’s shares have come under pressure following a disastrous March quarter which saw weak production and a sizeable cash burn. Many in the market are now expecting another capital raising later this year.
• Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) has seen its short interest ease to 15.6%. Short sellers appear to have doubts over this pizza chain operator’s turnaround plan.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) has seen its short interest ease to 15.3%. This radiopharmaceuticals company’s shares have come under significant pressure over the past 18 months amid US FDA approval challenges.
• Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) has 14.4% of its shares held short, which is up week on week. This medical device company’s shares have a premium valuation that short sellers don’t appear to believe is justified.
• Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) has short interest of 13.9%, which is down week on week. This quick service restaurant operator’s US operations have been struggling, casting doubts on its future in the key market.
• Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has short interest of 13.3%, which is flat since last week. There are major concerns over this uranium miner’s production outlook beyond 2026.
• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) has 12.9% of its shares held short, which is up week on week. Short sellers aren’t giving up on the wine giant despite it recently releasing an encouraging trading update.
• Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) has 12.2% of its shares held short. This is up slightly since last week. Short sellers continue to target the buy now pay later provider despite it delivering a strong update this month.
• DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) has 11.1% of its shares held short, which is up since last week. Last week, the counter-drone technology company revealed that it was the subject of an ASIC investigation.
• Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) has short interest of 10.9%, which is up week on week. Short sellers may believe that the Middle East conflict will weigh on the travel agent’s growth.

The post These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, DroneShield, PolyNovo, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, Flight Centre Travel Group, PolyNovo, and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares fell 1.3% last week as the war in Iran dragged on and tax changes announced in the Federal Budget spooked investors.

The ASX 200 is in the red for 2026, down 1.1%, as the oil shock continues to push up inflation and the likelihood of interest rate rises.

Meanwhile, let’s check out three ASX 200 shares with new ratings from the experts.

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

The Catapult Sports share price slumped 11.5% last week to close at $2.94 on Friday.

Bell Potter kept its buy rating on this ASX 300 tech share but lowered its 12-month price target from $4.75 to $4.50 last week.

Catapult will release its full-year FY26 results on Wednesday.

The broker said it was particularly keen to find out if Catapult had achieved its guidance of 50% growth in management EBITDA.

In a note, Bell Potter said:

Catapult remains our key pick in the tech sector amongst mid cap stocks outside the S&P/ASX 100 index.

We see little risk of AI disruption for the stock given its extensive proprietary data, multiple product platform and the hardware component to its solutions.

Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR)

The Worley share price lifted 2.9% last week to close at $12.50 on Friday.

Morgans maintained its hold rating on Worley shares after the company’s Investor Day last week.

Worley announced another share buyback of up to $300 million, following the completion of a $500 million buyback.

Morgans said:

WOR hosted an investor day outlining its medium-term ambitions to deliver double-digit EBITA CAGR through to FY30.

Central to this plan is pursuing a full delivery project model as WOR looks to capture more of the value chain by performing construction work.

Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns.

However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration and execution risk associated with larger EPC work.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $11.60 to $11.80.

This implies a 6% fall over the next year for the ASX 200 industrials share.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) 

The CBA share price fell 9.4% last week to finish at $159.40 on Friday.

Last Wednesday, CBA shares endured their worst day in history, falling 10.2%, after the bank released its 3Q FY26 update.

On top of that, major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) for investments were announced the night before.

That news hit CBA shares hard given the bank has the largest investor loan book.

Experts say the changes may dissuade property investment, which would hit all of the banks given their reliance on residential lending.

Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Wiles said (courtesy smh.com.au):

In our view, favourable tax treatment is one of the reasons why there has been a 30-year housing ‘super-cycle’ in Australia.

However, changes to property-related tax concessions could have a profound effect on the long-term demand for investment properties.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its sell call on CBA shares with a slightly lowered target of $130.

This suggests a potential 18% fall from here.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Catapult Sports, Worley, CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Down 9% this week, are CBA shares entering ‘a major correction cycle’?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When investors think about long-term wealth creation, they often think flashy tech stocks not ASX dividend shares.

But sometimes the best investments are the boring ones quietly generating reliable cash flow year after year.

That is exactly why Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) stands out as one of the ASX’s most compelling long-term dividend shares.

The infrastructure giant owns and operates some of Australia’s most important toll roads across Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, alongside major assets in North America.

And while toll roads may not sound exciting, the business model is incredibly powerful.

Why Transurban keeps delivering

Transurban benefits from something many businesses dream about: highly predictable recurring revenue.

Every day, millions of motorists rely on its roads to commute, transport freight, and move around growing cities. That creates steady cash generation largely independent of short-term economic swings.

Importantly, many of Transurban’s toll agreements also include inflation-linked pricing structures. That means revenue can continue rising even during periods of elevated inflation, a major advantage in today’s environment.

Traffic trends also remain supportive. In its latest half-year result, the ASX dividend share reported average daily traffic growth of 2.5% across its network, reaching approximately 2.6 million trips per day.

Major projects are also strengthening the company’s long-term growth outlook. The recent opening of Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project adds another significant infrastructure asset to the portfolio, while upgrades and expansions continue across Sydney and North America.

These projects should support rising traffic volumes and cash flow growth for many years ahead.

Growing dividend stream

For income-focused investors, Transurban’s dividend profile remains highly attractive.

The ASX dividend share recently reaffirmed FY26 distribution guidance of 69 cents per stapled security, representing roughly 6% growth compared to FY25. At current share prices, that implies a forward dividend yield of approximately 4.7% to 5%.

Importantly, management continues targeting gradual distribution growth as traffic volumes rise and new projects mature. That combination of dependable income and long-duration infrastructure assets is a rare find on the ASX.

Of course, risks remain

No investment is without risk. Transurban carries significant debt due to the capital-intensive nature of infrastructure projects, meaning higher interest rates can pressure financing costs.

Regulatory risk also remains a factor for this $45 billion dividend share, particularly as governments increasingly scrutinise toll road pricing and transport affordability.

Traffic volumes can also weaken during economic slowdowns, although historically the impact has often been relatively resilient compared to many other industries.

The long-term outlook

Despite those risks, Transurban continues to possess several characteristics long-term investors love. It operates essential infrastructure assets, generates recurring cash flow, benefits from inflation-linked revenue, and continues growing distributions over time.

For investors looking to build passive income and long-term wealth over the next decade and beyond, Transurban still looks like one of the highest-quality ASX dividend shares.

The post The ASX dividend share built for long-term wealth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dipped again last week, dropping close to 0.7%. 

However there were pockets of the market that enjoyed strong runs. 

Three such ASX shares that soared to record highs last week were: 

• Weebit Nano Ltd (ASX: WBT)
• Cobram Estate Olives Ltd (ASX: CBO)
• Tasmea Ltd (ASX: TEA)

Here’s what drove the strong performance and what experts are tipping for these high-performing ASX shares. 

Weebit Nano continues strong year

Weebit Nano develops and commercialises silicon oxide and Resistive Random-Access Memory technology. Its products are used in various applications, such as in computers, consumer electronics, smartphones, tablets, enterprise storage, automotive infotainment and navigation systems, healthcare, wearables and IOT.

Last week, it gained 20% on Thursday, followed by an 11% gain on Friday. 

Its share price has now risen more than 270% in the last year and now sits at an all time high.

Last week’s rise came after the company announced it had raised another $15 million and a new major shareholder emerged.

The company told the ASX that its share purchase plan, priced at $4.05 a share, had raised additional funds, taking the total capital raised, including an institutional placement to $102 million.

These ASX shares ultimately closed last week at $6.80 per share, however broker estimates (via TradingView) see a further 12% upside for this ASX technology stock.

Cobram Estates hits fresh 52-week highs

Cobram Estates produces and markets premium quality extra virgin olive oil. It owns two Australian brands, Cobram Estate and Red Island, which account for about half of the olive oil market share in Australian supermarkets by value.

It closed last Friday at a new 52-week high following a 2% gain. 

It is now up more than 100% over the last 12 months. 

Cobram has surged due to its profit jumping sharply on the back of record olive harvests, high global olive oil prices, and strong earnings guidance. 

Investors have also become more optimistic about the company’s long-term growth story, particularly its expanding US operations and premium olive oil branding.

Despite these tailwinds, estimates from experts (via TradingView) indicate it is currently close to fully valued. 

Growth continues for Tasmea

Tasmea s a skilled services company. It provides essential maintenance, engineering, and specialised project services and solutions across the following four service streams to the mining and resources; oil and gas; waste and water; power and renewable energy; and defence and infrastructure industries.

It has been a steady climb for this ASX industrials stock over the last year. It is now up 121% in that span after gaining another 2% last Friday. 

According to trading view, 4 analysts offering a one year price target have an average forecast of $5.63 on these ASX shares. 

This target is 8% higher than the current share price.

The post Are these ASX shares a buy, hold or sell after rocketing to record highs last week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The best-performing ASX ETFs over the past year all have one thing in common — commodities.

While technology and healthcare shares have struggled through bouts of volatility, commodity-linked investments have surged as investors pile into gold, critical minerals, and resource producers benefiting from inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and booming AI-driven energy demand.

That momentum has translated into massive gains for several ASX-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Here are three commodity-focused ASX ETFs that have exploded between 85% and 135% over the past 12 months.

BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (ASX: MNRS)

One of the standout performers has been the BetaShares Global Uranium ETF, which has surged an astonishing 112% over the past year.

The ASX ETF provides investors exposure to global uranium miners and companies tied to the nuclear energy supply chain.

Its biggest strength is clear: uranium demand is booming again. Governments around the world are increasingly embracing nuclear power as a low-emissions energy source capable of supporting AI data centres and energy-intensive infrastructure.

That has reignited investor enthusiasm for uranium producers after years of underinvestment across the sector.

The ETF’s largest holdings currently include Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO) and NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG).

However, the risks are equally significant. Uranium remains a highly volatile commodity, heavily influenced by political decisions, energy policy shifts, and investor sentiment. If uranium prices retreat sharply, the ETF could also experience large pullbacks.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX)

Another huge winner has been this VanEck gold ETF, which has climbed roughly 85% over the past 12 months.

As global uncertainty has intensified, investors have flooded into gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. That has delivered massive gains for gold mining companies, particularly as rising gold prices can significantly boost mining margins and profitability.

The ASX ETF provides diversified exposure to some of the world’s largest gold producers, including major holdings like Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM).

One major strength of the ASX ETF is diversification. Rather than relying on a single miner, investors gain exposure across multiple producers and jurisdictions.

But risks remain. Gold miners can still be highly cyclical, while operational costs, geopolitical risks, and fluctuations in gold prices can all impact earnings.

Global X Physical Platinum ETF (ASX: ETPMAG)

Finally, the Global X Physical Platinum ETF has skyrocketed around 132% over the past year.

Unlike traditional mining ASX ETFs, this fund provides direct exposure to physical platinum bullion. Its main strength lies in its pure commodity exposure.

Platinum demand has surged amid tightening global supply conditions, industrial demand recovery, and growing interest in precious metals as inflation hedges.

Because the ETF directly tracks physical platinum, investors avoid many of the operational risks associated with mining companies. The primary holding is allocated physical platinum stored in secure vaults.

However, commodity prices can swing wildly, and platinum remains particularly sensitive to industrial demand cycles and global economic conditions.

The post These commodity ASX ETFs are leaving the market behind appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cameco. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As the ASX opens to a fresh week of trading, broker Bell Potter has provided updated guidance on two ASX small-cap shares. 

While ASX small-cap shares come with increased risk and volatility, many investors may still choose to monitor smaller companies with greater potential upside.

Here is what Bell Potter is predicting for these two. 

Civmec Ltd (ASX: CVL)

Civmec is an Australian, multidisciplinary heavy engineering and construction company, providing integrated services to the energy, resources, infrastructure, marine and defence sectors.

Like many small-cap shares, it has experienced significant volatility in 2026, however finished last Friday 12% higher than at the start of the year. 

The company released quarterly results last week, which prompted updated guidance from Bell Potter. 

The broker noted that revenue of $244.2m was up 54.1% and reflected an ongoing uplift in activity across the company’s core operating segments. 

EBITDA of $27.8m grew 44.4% YoY with the margin falling to 11.4% from 12.1% in the pcp. NPAT of $13.5m grew 45.2% YoY. 

Comparing the result to our old full year estimates implies CVL needs revenue of $232.3m in 4Q26, very achievable given the company’s elevated and diverse order book of $1.3b. EBITDA margins came in ahead of our expectations which sees us upgrade our full year EBITDA margin slightly.

Following the results, Bell Potter retained its buy recommendation on this ASX small-cap along with a price target of $1.90. 

This indicates an upside potential of just over 15%. 

With a diverse $1.35b order book underpinned by increased Resources activity and defence orders, CVL is well positioned for growth.

Avita Medical Ltd (ASX: AVH)

Avita Medical is a healthcare company specialising in regenerative medicine. It is best known for its RECELL system, a burn treatment device that creates ‘spray-on skin’ from a patient’s own skin cells within 30 minutes, avoiding or reducing the need for skin grafts.

Its share price is up just over 7% year to date. 

The company also released quarterly results last week. 

According to Bell Potter, the company reported solid 1Q26 results, with revenue rising 4% year-on-year to US$19.3m, close to its previous record quarter of US$19.4m. 

Losses improved significantly, with EBIT loss narrowing to US$8.8m from US$15.6m a year earlier.

Bell Potter expects 2Q26 revenue could set a new company record. Management said January was slower, but February and March were very strong, and momentum continued into April.

Despite this, the broker sees this ASX small-cap as close to fully valued. 

Bell Potter currently has a speculative hold recommendation and $1.20 price target, indicating just 2% upside. 

The post Are these ASX small-cap shares a buy, hold or sell according to Bell Potter? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Avita Medical. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Avita Medical. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week with a small decline. The benchmark index fell 0.1% to 8,630.8 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to drop

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week following a poor finish to the last one on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 38 points or 0.45% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.55%.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a good session after oil prices charged higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 4.2% to US$105.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 3.55% to US$109.26 a barrel. Oil prices jumped after Donald Trump warned that he is losing patience with Iran.

Elders and New Hope results

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) shares will be on watch today when the agribusiness company releases its half-year results. The team at Bell Potter is expecting Elders to deliver EBITDA growth of approximately 30% for FY 2026, so the market is likely to be looking for a first half performance that is run-rating towards this. Elsewhere, New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) is scheduled to release its third-quarter results this morning.

Gold price tumbles

ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor start to the week after the gold price tumbled on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 2.6% to US$4,561.9 an ounce. Strong oil prices have sparked fears of higher inflation and interest rate hikes.

Buy TechnologyOne shares

Bell Potter thinks TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are good value. Ahead of its half-year results this week, the broker has retained its buy rating on the enterprise technology company’s shares with an improved price target of $32.25 (from $31.75). It said: “We believe, however, there is some chance of ARR growth exceeding $45m in H1 due to in part to the release of Plus – Technology One’s agentic AI product – and the impact this is having on product uptake by customers (e.g. James Cook University) which is driving up both NRR and ARR.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These commodity ASX ETFs are leaving the market behind
• What is Bell Potter’s updated view on TechnologyOne shares?
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Investing in ASX small-cap stocks should always come with a side of caution. 

Many small-cap companies experience significant volatility because of limited liquidity, narrower customer bases, and greater sensitivity to market sentiment and economic changes.

However when one receives broker estimates of more than 300% upside potential, it’s worth taking note. 

That’s exactly the case for ASX small-cap stock Saluda Medical Inc (ASX: SLD). 

Company overview

Saluda Medical is a commercial-stage medical device company commercialising spinal cord stimulation (SCS) therapy. Saluda is currently a single product company, centred around its differentiated SCS product called the ‘Evoke System’. 

The company has been commercialising the Evoke System for roughly three years in the US, and approximately five years in Europe and Australia, for the treatment of patients with chronic pain of the trunk and/or limbs.

ASX small-cap healthcare stocks such as Saluda Medical can have high upside because successful clinical results, regulatory approvals, or commercial partnerships can rapidly increase their valuation from a low base. 

They are also more volatile because they often rely on future growth expectations, limited funding, and investor sentiment rather than stable earnings.

While the optimism around this small-cap is exciting, its 66% year to date share price decline illustrates this volatility.

Bell Potter optimistic on market share

In the latest report from Bell Potter, the broker said the US spinal cord stimulator market is worth about US$2.3 billion and is growing steadily. 

A major industry shift is toward “closed-loop” technology, which automatically adjusts stimulation levels, and Bell Potter believes this is becoming the new standard.

Although competitors already have a closed-loop product, Bell Potter believes Saluda’s technology is stronger and helping it grow quickly in the US market. 

Saluda’s recent growth rates have significantly outpaced the broader industry, leading Bell Potter to view the company as an emerging disruptor and a possible takeover target for larger competitors seeking faster growth.

A natural conclusion is competitors without closed-loop technology risk being left behind, and with the best available offering and little evidence of others developing their own, SLD is emerging as a formidable disruptor.

More than 300% potential upside

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy recommendation and $2.00 price target on this ASX small-cap. 

From last week’s closing price of 48 cents, this indicates an upside potential of 316%. 

SLD is gaining considerable commercial traction, and with >150 US sales reps now on board, there’s little reason to expect any slowdown in the quarters ahead.

The post Meet the ASX small-cap healthcare company which could triple this year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares closed last week with an impressive 3% gain. 

TechnologyOne is one of the largest publicly listed software companies in Australia, with offices across six countries. It develops user-friendly enterprise software products that are deeply integrated into customers’ information technology, or IT, infrastructure.

Like many software and technology companies, it experienced a heavy sell-off during the start of 2026 due to AI replacement fears. 

It has since steadied over the last month, and brokers are now viewing TechnologyOne shares as a buy-low candidate. 

Last week, the team at Bell Potter issued updated guidance on the company. 

Here’s the latest from the broker. 

All eyes on first half results 

TechnologyOne will report its first-half FY26 results on Tuesday, 19 May. 

Bell Potter expects profit before tax (PBT) growth to match the company’s earlier guidance of “high single-digit” growth.

They forecast PBT to rise 9% to $89.4 million, slightly above market consensus of 8% growth to $88.4 million.

The key area that could outperform expectations is annual recurring revenue (ARR). There is no official first-half ARR guidance, but Bell Potter and the broader market both expect ARR to grow 17% year-on-year to around $600 million.

Bell Potter assumes TechnologyOne will add about $100 million in ARR during FY26, which would match the top end of management’s 16–18% growth guidance. They expect this increase to be weighted toward the second half, with roughly $45 million added in H1 and $55 million in H2.

We believe, however, there is some chance of ARR growth exceeding $45m in H1 due to in part to the release of Plus – Technology One’s agentic AI product – and the impact this is having on product uptake by customers (e.g. James Cook University) which is driving up both NRR and ARR. 

If ARR growth does exceed $45m in H1 then this would suggest growth for the full year above $100m – given the typical H2 skew – and so could potentially lead to an upgrade of the full year guidance of 16-18% growth.

Buy rating retained for TechnologyOne shares

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has retained its buy recommendation on TechnologyOne shares. 

The broker has also increased its target price to $32.25 (previously $31.75). 

From last week’s closing price of $28.36, this indicates an upside potential of almost 14%. 

We see the result next week as a potential catalyst given the possible positive surprise in ARR.

The post What is Bell Potter’s updated view on TechnologyOne shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.